Andy Burnham Risks Repeating A Liz Truss-Style Mistake | Former Blair Spokesperson

Added: 2026-06-02

[00:00:00]advantage that Andy Burnham has is that [snorts] he has seen an approach in Manchester which is if if you like a holistic approach which was bequeaved him by the former chief executive Hard Beans Bernstein and Richard Lee who was the uh Labour leader. They adopted approach in which they pushed everything at the same time. They decided what was needed for Manchester and then they pulled every single lever to get that.

[00:00:31]Now applying that at a national level is much more difficult and I think there is a real question mark over whether Andy Bernham has done the necessary thinking.

[00:00:40]The danger for Labor at this stage is that they do what uh the Conservatives did when they elected Liz Trust. They go with, if you like, their instincts, what they want to happen rather than what will actually make a difference in the country. That's the danger.

[00:00:57]>> Just 17 days to go until the Labour soap opera reaches another climax. That's when we'll know if Andy Burnham has won the Makerfield bi-election. If he has, it will be prelude to him challenging Kio Starmer for the leadership. Though the mechanics and timetable for for that remain a little foggy. There will first be the little matter of the election of a new mayor for Greater Manchester to replace the said Andy Burnham. Now, if Labour was to lose that, Bernham's halo would slip, though he'd probably still beat Starmer, but who knows? It's all a bit of a shambles in the governing party. Star struggles on manfully for now, the walking wounded, but not yet dead. Bernham has his own problems with policy U-turns and a lackluster bi-election campaign. Streeting who's failed to seize the initiative with his resignation now looks a somewhat fullon figure. Others with aspirations for the big job are stuck on the sidelines awaiting developments. This soap opera still has a long way to run yet.

[00:01:59]Frankly, whoever's in power should be focused on the immense challenging users facing us at home and abroad. But they're not. Let's talk to a man who's seen close up what it takes to be prime minister. former spokesman to Tony Blair, Tom Kelly. Uh Tom Kelly, welcome to the program. But voters turfed out the Conservatives because they frankly just had enough of the Tory soap opera.

[00:02:22]Did it ever cross your mind? We'd be certainly didn't mind we'd be lumbered with a Labour soap opera less than two years later.

[00:02:31]I think whenever you and I talked at the time of the general election um you asked me uh whether Labour's plans were coherent and I think I'm honest in saying I said no and in particular I wanted more detail on they said there was going to be 10 years of national revival. What did that mean in practice? The problem is that they didn't have a coherent plan going into government and they've been unfortunate in terms of the events that have happened since they went into government. But they've allowed because they haven't had a coherent plan, they've allowed events to drive them rather than they drive events.

[00:03:16]>> Yeah. And I think that does explain a lot of what's gone wrong. I mean, I'm I'm reminded when when Blair Brown came to power in 1997, they'd done their homework. They knew what they wanted to do. And it seems that K Armor didn't do his homework, did he? Why not? He had plenty of time.

[00:03:35]I think they were so cautious about dropping the famous Ming vase that they didn't think to think about where were they going to put this Ming vase down, where were they going to secure a future that made allowed them to show voters that they were making a genuine difference. And unless you think about that in advance, the pace of events in government is such that you don't have time to do the thinking in government.

[00:04:05]>> The subject I was most closely associated with in my time in in uh number 10 was Northern Ireland. And Northern Ireland, the prime minister had thought through a strategy before he ever went through the door of number 10.

[00:04:18]They knew what they were going to do.

[00:04:20]They knew that within the first two weeks of government, they were going to come to Northern Ireland. It takes that kind of thinking. It takes that kind of advanced planning to make a difference.

[00:04:31]Last week we actually saw an example of that in my view in practice. And that was Alan Milburn's report on on those who are not in employment, education or training that was thought through evidence-based policym at its best.

[00:04:46]However, it sticks out like a sore thumb because it's a rare example in this government >> and it it it was a seminal report. We'll see what happens to it, of course. Uh, and it's true there was such a gap in in July 24 between Labour's analysis of the deep-seated problems the country faced and I think by and large it was right on that and yet the posity of ambition in policy that it was clearly be needed to deal with these deep city things and I have to say Tom Andy Burnham looks to me just as unprepared if not more so. I think the advantage that Andy Burnham has is that he has seen an approach in Manchester which is if if you like a holistic approach which was bequeeved him by the former chief executive Hard Beans Bernstein and Richard Lee who was the Labour leader. They adopted approach in which they pushed everything at the same time. They decided what was needed for Manchester and then they pulled every single lever to get that. Now applying that at a national level is much more difficult and I think there is a real question mark over whether Andy Bernham has done the necessary thinking.

[00:06:03]The danger for Labor at this stage is that they do what uh the Conservatives did when they elected Liz Trust. They go with if you like their instincts, what they want to happen rather than what will actually make a difference in the country. That's the danger >> and that may well be the move of the Labour party at the moment. I mean K Star's move to the left in power partly I think just largely I think to save his skin. Everybody who wants to replace him says we'll be even more left than that.

[00:06:34]If that was the case where's the mandate? Just just as in a sense, Liz Truss had no mandate from the people to do what she attempted. Where would the mandate be for a a Labor government of the left?

[00:06:50]I think Andy Bernham would claim that if he wins the bi-election and it is a big if at this stage then that gives him a mandate of sorts to change the approach of the government, to change the approach of politics in this country.

[00:07:06]But he will have to demonstrate to the rest of the country that this is something that will bring the nation together rather than full further polarize it between north and south which is a real danger. So can he actually present a picture for the nation as a whole and the nations within the nation that actually unifies the country rather than divides it further.

[00:07:28]That's the challenge.

[00:07:30]>> Well uh as a man from the north he that would at least be an advantage in attempting uh to do that. While I've got you, Tom, uh we're all waiting on the Mandlesson files uh this afternoon.

[00:07:40]It'll be an hour or so time we'll get to go over them. Now, you were director of communications, official spokesman when Peter Manderson was secretary of state for Northern Ireland. I was regarded as a rather good secretary of state for Northern Ireland. Uh but was it clear to you then that he was actually a deeply flawed character?

[00:07:59]Yes, Peter was always an accident waiting to happen because when he was good, he was very good. In Northern Ireland, for instance, he reassured the then police service, the IU, that transformation into a new police service, the police service of Northern N would not jeopardize security. And he was very good at that. But the way he did that unnecessarily alienated nationalism and he was torn death to the concerns of nationalism and therefore on the one hand he reassured one side of the community on the other side he re alienated the other. So that is Peter in a nutshell. He he is this divisive figure who is brilliant when he's good but can be very very destructive when he's bad.

[00:08:53]Tom, you put it well. Thank you for that. Tom Kelly. Now, a new bowl isn't a new poll isn't necessarily a good news for Randy Burnham. Meerfield is steeped in trade union history, but a poll by jail partners has found that union members are now as likely to support Reform UK as Labor. It's all part of a long-term trend in which Labor becomes much less workingass and a lot more middle class. a trend that could operate against Burnham in Makerfield or not given his personal profile. Let's speak to Tim Bale, professor of politics and at Queen Mary University in London.

[00:09:30]Professor Bill, does this poll come as much of a surprise to you or have you been able We've been seeing these trends for some time, both the Brexit referendum and in the break of the Red Wall to the Tories in 2019.

[00:09:44]>> Absolutely. I mean it's no longer the case really that uh trade union membership is full of uh workingclass voters anyway. Um actually a lot of trade union members would describe themselves and certainly in terms of their income uh as middle class. Uh and from you know the 1970s onwards really we've seen a decline of uh voting for labor among trade unionists. Now admittedly, as you said, there has been a big decline according to this poll. Uh around 48% of people, according to the poll uh of trade union members, voted labor in 2024 and it's now only 28%. So that is a big drop. And the rise for reform, it's a 12% rise, is a big uh rise, but it's not entirely surprising because trade union members are like anyone else, dissatisfied with the Labor government and looking for some kind of alternative at the moment.

[00:10:40]Now, it's clear K Star Armor doesn't connect with working-class voters despite all his emphasis about his father's apparent bluecollar occupation.

[00:10:50]But it would seem, professor, th this trend, as you've explained, is far deeper than Kia Starmer. It's not all down to him.

[00:10:58]And I just wonder, given that, would Andy Bernham make much of a difference?

[00:11:05]>> I'm not sure. I mean, I think it's possible that Bernham could argue, you know, he comes from the north and actually geography in some senses counts as much as class in that sense.

[00:11:16]>> He speaks human.

[00:11:18]>> Yeah, he speaks human. He connects with ordinary people. Um, I mean, I think we need probably to question the idea that there is some kind of stereotypical white workingclass voter who has deserted labor and has gone to reform.

[00:11:33]actually if that process as you say has been going on. It's been going on for a long time. Uh and not everybody who votes reform obviously is a workingclass white voter. You know, there are many comfortable people, maybe they paid off their mortgage, maybe they're older, maybe they left school earlier, who vote for reform. It's not necessarily uh as it were the white working class that has necessarily deserted labor for reform.

[00:12:00]Let me attempt to put this in a wider context. I mean, as I look around Europe, social democratic parties, they've been losing workingclass support all over the place. The French Socialists, I mean, they were down >> to I think in in the one of the most recent presidential election, they were down to like 7% at one stage. The German Social Democrats in many cases wags the most powerful important social democratic party in post-war Europe. The Italian socialists, they almost disappeared as well. Even if you want to lump them in, they're not really social democrat. But the American Democrats have lost their bluecollar base. The Italian, the Polish, the Irish, traditionally, they're voting the poorer ones of them, they're voting Republican now. And let me put this point to you, the professor of politicies.

[00:12:46]>> None of these parties suffering the same problems as the Labor Party in our country, none has shown any idea how to reverse it.

[00:12:56]I think that is broadly speaking true.

[00:12:58]Uh social democracy is in crisis uh throughout Europe and as you point out in the United States. There are a number of reasons for that. One is obviously the working class or at least the the kind of manual working class has shrunk over time. We're much more middle-class societies than we used to be. It's also the case obviously that uh the more progressive takes on social issues that some of these parties uh are now famous for or infamous for depending on your point of view doesn't go down well uh with some of the more conservative instincts of that class. Uh so you're you're absolutely right to say that they are in trouble uh everywhere. Um, and it's also important, I think, to realize that not all the people who have deserted them have necessarily gone to the populist radical right or the far right or whatever you want to call it. A lot of them have gone to non- voting or even green or even voting for even further left parties. So, I don't think we should necessarily say that the decline of the workingclass vote for social democratic parties is necessarily what is driving support for the populist radical right.

[00:14:02]>> No, certainly not that alone. But a fascinating time uh to be a professor of politics as well as a journalist. Uh so good times for both of us there. Uh professor uh Tim Bale there joining me from Queen Mary University London.