BREAKING: Trump Announces New Iran Deal With Major Concessions - w/ Shipping Expert Sal Mercogliano

Added: 2026-05-28

[00:00:00]in Trump's post he said the straight he said the straight of Hammuz will be open so that's something um but I'll give you what the concessions are saying so in Alazer journalist I know him well he's been on the show a few times he said the deal includes that's unconfirmed but it'll be wild if true an end of the regional war on all fronts including Lebanon fine expected billions of Iranian assets unfrozen remember when he was attacking Obama for doing this. Yeah, apparently that's included. Lifting of the US naval blockade. Fine. Opening the shred of hummus under Iranian management. So, not sure if there'll be tolls, but I would expect there'll be tolls. Withdrawal of the majority of American forces from the Middle East.

[00:00:46]After this, the two sides will have two 30 days to find an agreement on the nuclear issue, but this time frame can be extended if mutually agreed.

[00:00:55]So the war started with Iran not controlling the trade of home was and no assets unfrozen whatsoever and ended by the looks of it unconfirmed with Iran controlling the trade home was getting billions of assets unfrozen.

[00:01:08]They did face tens of billions hundreds of billions of damages. So let's not forget that and the US having to withdraw out of the region the majority of forces which is not a bad thing for us uh for the US military because it is stretched very thin. Um what do you make of this man? I know we usually talk about the straight of homes, etc., but you're a wealth of knowledge, man. So, I want to get your personal thoughts on all this.

[00:01:28]>> Well, I mean, we've we've seen deals come up before and we've seen how this kind of rolls. This one is really interesting. Obviously, the straight of moves is the big one. Can they get the straight open? But the the caveat there is Iranian control of it.

[00:01:43]Obviously with the creation of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority which gives them oversight over the straight do does this recognize them formally having that oversight? We know that the Gulf states in particularly were very concerned about that. They did not want Iran to have this. At the same time, however, what we see is there are tons of tankers, especially the very large crude carriers sitting outside the Persian Gulf right now. They have not displaced as much as many people think.

[00:02:11]We haven't seen the massive reall allocation of of the the oil tankers on those long runs. We've seen more going to the United States doing that Cape of Good Hope run, but a lot of them are sitting out there waiting for this opening to take place. Uh we're seeing about a 14 million barrel per day reduction out of the Persian Gulf.

[00:02:32]that's being made up with with the uh the pipeline out of Yamoo and obviously out of Fujara and the UAE is talking about even ramping that up even more come next year. Uh we're seeing some uptick in production in other places that are offsetting that. But obviously I mean the strait is is is the big one.

[00:02:48]That is one that if the US agrees to it is is really shocking to me because that's giving them de facto oversight the Iranians over that strait and that means Iran, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar are really going to be at the mercy of what Iran wants to do especially if they extract that toll money.

[00:03:08]>> H do you think there could be um a structure where the toll money would be split between Iran and the rest of the Gulf? Could that be workable? Because apparently Trump had a call with the Gulf countries and they were happy with the call. He posted about it and according to reports before that they were pleased with the call. Somehow even the call with Netanyahu went well. But I think that's a lie. But let's stick to the Gulf.

[00:03:31]>> Is that workable? And that's not my idea. By the way, I was speaking to Professor Isadi from Iran.

[00:03:35]>> I was telling him how this is just all the Gulf are not accepting this. This is not right for the Gulf, especially when you talk about Omani waters. And he's like, Mario, I'm sure they'll be happy.

[00:03:43]We could do a toll fee that's kind of gradually decreases as time passes or start as high for us to get reparations and goes down to get I didn't know the Danish straits charge a toll as well a few cents per barrel. I didn't know that. Yeah. So it's not that it's not that groundbreaking. Why is it such a big deal if Iran does it? If though Turkey does it, the Danes does do it as well. Why is it such a big deal if Iran does it as well? Especially considering they need to pay for the war damages.

[00:04:09]>> The Danes do it because they control both sides of that area, the straight.

[00:04:12]And so this is where I think we get a little bit of issue here. The Turks do it because of Montro and because they have both sides of the straight.

[00:04:20]Iranians obviously don't have it.

[00:04:21]However, if you turn the Persian Gulf, you know, straight authority into a multinational and you start talking about does this benefit the Gulf States.

[00:04:30]Obviously, what the Gulf States want to do is get goods moving. I I mean, we're we're at three months now and food supplies that they had prepositioned or being eaten into. They've been able to get supplies overland, but that's expensive. They obviously want to be able to get ships pierside at at their ports. If they can negotiate out a deal where it's not just Iran who's getting the 2 million, but if that's being put into a pot that's shared among the Gulf States, now the question is, do the Gulf States need this as much? What they need is stability and shipping going through the straits? Because the fear here, Mario, I would tell you is if this agreement goes into place, let's say this does get agreed exactly as it is, Iran does the toll. Does shipping come back the way it was prefeebruary 28th?

[00:05:13]Because that's the big question because what we've seen is shipping hasn't returned into the Red Sea since the initial attacks back in 2023. And the large container carriers, a lot of the, you know, the higher value ships still take that alternative route. Are the ships going to come back? They need that security issue. One of the things that the US found out was they put together this war risk insurance policy, but the war risk in itself isn't enough to get ships to go through without security.

[00:05:42]And what they what the shipping companies want is security. They want to know the Iranians are not going to attack them, that they're not going to hit them, that the ships can go through and they'll pay a higher war risk.

[00:05:51]They'll pay the money. That's not the issue. What they want is the security that they're not going to lose a ship for the next 20 years of revenue. That's the concern they have.

[00:06:03]Well, there's a a new piece of information on that. Um, Trump, so that's according to Forest News. And by the way, when I got this positive announcement from Trump, etc. And Miji, I'm like, let's wait for what the Iranians will say because we've had many times before where you have positive news coming out of the US and then Iran's like, "Guys, guys, hold your horses. We don't have a deal." They say the following. Trump's claim about the return of the trader to its previous state is not true according to the latest revised text. In case of a possible possible agreement, the straight of Homus will continue to be under the management of Iran. Although Iran has agreed to allow the number of transit ships to return to the pre-war level, this does not mean free traffic to the pre-war situation. Based on this, the management of the straight home's determination of the route uh time, way of crossing, and issuance of permits will continue to be the sole responsibility of Iran. Therefore, Trump's claim in this regard is incomplete and does not correspond to reality.

[00:06:58]Well, and again, the concern that I would also have in this is the creation of this authority. Who's controlling this authority? Is it the IRGC? Is it the Iranian government? We know that there's issues over the command and control structure in Iran. So, you know, who is going to oversee it? What we've seen happen even recently over the past week is vessels make movement toward the straight get turned around again. Uh it's not a good flow. I mean, we're just seeing the kind of start starts and stops all the time here. in the movement of shipping through this. What everybody wants is dependability. They need to be able to flow goods and know that their ships can both come in and come out.

[00:07:36]We're seeing ships come out. We're seeing that the Iranians are letting ships come out. The question is, can you get ships going in and then turning around and coming out on a scheduled basis? And I think this is the fundamental flaw here with the US and the Iranians, this agreement, because the US isn't going to pull off on their blockade until they know that the straight is open. The problem is the only way to get this resolved is through some sort of agreement. Militarily you're not going to be able to do this.

[00:08:00]There's no way the US militarily the US military can run ships through, but it's nowhere going to be near the flow you need to get back to the pre-war levels.

[00:08:11]>> How big of a deal is it for Iran to control the threat of hum?

[00:08:15]>> I think it's their new control element.

[00:08:18]I I mean this this gives them leverage in a way that they didn't have before.

[00:08:24]the the fear is the nuclear weapon. The fear has always been the nuclear weapon.

[00:08:27]The nuclear weapon gives them the ability to strike Israel and cause massive, you know, damage. I mean, in a way that that no other force can do it.

[00:08:37]This gives them leverage over economics.

[00:08:40]And I think they got the the kind of the learning table of how to do this in the Red Sea. I mean, they saw this in 2024 in what the Houthis were able to enact.

[00:08:49]And now I think the the Iranians took that lesson to heart. They've executed their mission. They've realized that this is a tool they can use with the weaponry they have at hand. And you don't need much. You need small boats.

[00:09:01]You need uh weapons, uh missiles, drones. You don't need a lot of them either. Just enough to deter against shipping, commercial shipping. And now they have that leverage. It's 11% of global trade goes through this straight.

[00:09:14]That's 20% of oil, but it's 11% of everything else. And this gives them a lot of utility. And if you think about it, they still have the Houthi in in in in Yemen as another avenue in which they can control. And this is causing a massive relocation of shipping. We're seeing that we're seeing shipping happen to go around long areas and and change around. We see that flow of tankers heading to the US Gulf Coast. But again, we're also waiting to see whether or not the straight opens back up. And this is going to, you know, resonate across. We haven't seen the long-term effects yet in areas like fertilizer and a lot of the manufacturing that's going to come.

[00:09:51]That's the area that we really haven't seen take hold. What we've seen so far is the shock from the oil and the gas, but we haven't seen the long term.

[00:10:01]Hm.

[00:10:03]There was a report I can't remember what shipping company said even if the straight of hummus is open and there's a deal reached and Iran by the way said they're happy that they want to charge a fee but they're happy to open it up to the same volume of ships as before. Um it would take it by the end of the year the straight home will only be at 40% capacity.

[00:10:24]>> Right. I I mean because you're losing I I mean we we've lost somewhere in the range of what's two billion barrels of oil out of the Persian Gulf so far in three months and understand the shipping lines too. I I mean you know Frontline one of the big tanker companies just posted their best quarter in a decade.

[00:10:40]Uh for the shipping lines you know you get a lot of you get a lot of crying from the shipping lines. They're going to sit there say it's terrible. This is a horrible thing. But then you look at their quarterly reports like wait a minute this is this is actually going to be very profitable for them. We saw that with the Houthy. They screamed a lot about the Houthi but then you know the quarter after this took place we saw record profits for them and what you're seeing is major container liners Maris Kapog you know they have implemented uh overland routes and so I mean they're getting cargo into the Persian Gulf it's taking longer it's a much you know extraneous kind of you know laborious route to go to but they're also making money on it and what we're seeing is a lot of push back in the United States for example the Federal Maritime Commission which is the regulators over international shipping in the United States are really putting the container companies and shipping firms on on on notice to be very clear if they're going to charge sir charges these additional fuel costs to be able to document that this this is an actual cost that they're incurring and not just adding it on for profit because that was a fear that happened during the supply crisis and also with the Houthi and and again what we're seeing is the redrawing of those supply lines. I mean, this is really a significant one. One of the big ones is the Russians. The the Russians are looking at liqufied natural gas exports and if you're exporting liqufied natural gas from the Russian, you know, the Russians just bought four LG carriers on the open market, they want to, you know, fill that vacuum of Qatar and so they want to send it to Asia. The problem is, do you send a Russian LNG through the Mediterranean after what happened with the Arctic Metagas, the vessel that was hit by supposedly Ukrainian USVs in the in the Mediterranean? Well, if you don't send it that way, you got to go around Africa. And now what the Russians are doing is waiting for the summertime to warm up, get their 12 ice breakers up and running, and get the Arctic route going. And now they can start flowing through the Arctic. And so we're seeing those redrawing of those global supply chains.

[00:12:38]Um, so a um, this is an Emirati influencer did a post. I want to read it. The Islamic regime in Iran has surrendered and accepted the terms. If it breaks them, it will be broken.

[00:12:50]Increasingly isolated in the region, Trump called Gulf leaders before making his final decision. A sign that the region is now closer to America than before and will play a role in shaping the next steps. What comes next may be even more dangerous for the regime itself. unrest at home, anger in the streets, and calls for change that could erupt as the war comes to an end. The region, America, and allies such as NATO and the EU may use the pause to prepare for the next phase. Now, con Oh my god.

[00:13:16]Now convinced that the regime's missiles and drones threaten not only Gulf nations, but also the global economy through the straight of Homus. In this battle, the regime has suffered heavy losses. Its navy, aircraft, leadership, soldiers, economy, and strategic capabilities. If there is a next round, it may not survive it. So, do these guys know how much the Gulf suffered economically? Actually, Sal, do you know the figures of how much the the is the situation the Gulf is in? What's kind of general thoughts? Have you spoken to people there?

[00:13:43]>> I no I I mean I know the Amiradis for example have been suffering in a variety of different just look at the tourism industry. I mean it's down tremendously right now.

[00:13:51]>> But obviously in in terms of the export I mean Qataris are probably the worst off in terms of LNG that they've been losing. I mean, it's been in the billions for them to be out of this. And more importantly, you know, what they're doing is reallocating. The US has ramped up production. You've you've just saw a new LG facility come online in the United States. There's new grants coming from the Trump administration to even fire up more liqufied natural gas uh production in the United States. Uh this this is a major issue. I you know, I I looked through that Trump post. I was really amazed. Number one, he identified everybody, which tells me that okay, this is a little bit more serious than that and and he spelled everything right. So, it's like this is okay, someone's kind of checking up on this and they want to make sure that they're acknowledging this. So, obviously, there's a lot of coordination right now going on with the Gulf States and I think the Gulf States are leveling a lot. We don't hear a lot what the Gulf is doing in this. I talked to shipping companies and I talked to the people on the ships and the Gulf States are doing a lot to help support the ships out there to, you know, for the crews and everything like that. There's a lot of work going on behind the scenes that they're not getting a lot of acknowledge for. The Emiratis in particularly are doing a lot. And I think they were very frustrated with the Americans and taking the two US ships out and then stopping because they thought this was going to be the start. They thought this was going to kind of open it up and try to unplug the Persian Gulf and it didn't happen. And you know now they they want this straight open and and and the Emiratis, you know, they have a part of the straight too. It's not just Oman.

[00:15:17]The Emiratis have a part of it too.

[00:15:19]there's that land uh there's that contested piece of lands in the middle of the straight there, the islands and and so I mean they they have a big push on this right now and I think they're the big other players. We've also seen that the UAE has been making deals with South Korea specifically for exchange of defense weaponry for oil. So I I mean a lot of different deals are at play here all at the same time.

[00:15:45][snorts] >> Um by the way, what what are your personal thoughts on this war ending?

[00:15:48]You never gave your thoughts. You're always very analytical. Where do you stand on this? [laughter] >> Well, I I mean I I'm all for before for before the war ending. I wish it would, you know, I thought wish it would end soon. I I just I I I think number one, I mean, the US set out a series of objectives and and I think that their objectives, which was to degrade the Iranian military, has been done. I mean, I think they've achieved their objective. If your goal was to degrade Iranian military, you have. The problem I have is that the US never really seemed to acknowledge that Iran's kind of fallback position was the straight.

[00:16:22]It was always going to be to interdict the straight and that was the leverage that they had. And the US makes the argument that no that we always knew that it was not, you know, we just had the plan. And I and I don't think they did. I really don't. I I think they had the plan. It's just that the administration did not have it thought out enough because I've seen orders go out to activate reser for convoy duty.

[00:16:45]That was done in the middle of March. If if you thought they were going to close the straight, you would have done this early. You would have done this on day one at the very least. You would have gotten, you know, the reser going, the the pieces needed to do this. I I I think the US got kind of sucked into two things. Number one, they saw how successful the July 2025 strike was and they thought, "Okay, this can be done.

[00:17:07]We keep the trade open and we can execute this without a problem." We saw regime change with Maduro and we got something out of that. I I think, you know, it it's it's a variable. I've you know, I worked with the military for a long time, Mario. I know a lot of people who have been hurt and killed due to Iranian actions in Iran, you know, in Afghanistan and Iraq. And so, I have a personal feeling about that. I I think both sides have blood on their hands when it comes to certain issues. Uh but I do think that they need to find a way to back out of this and and I think that's one of the hardest problems. It is very easy to start a war. It is it is you know it's very much more difficult to end a war. There's a lot of books written on how you start wars. There's a lot less written on how to end it because it is a very difficult thing to do. How do you come away because you don't want to look weak. You don't you want to look like you achieved your objectives. Listen, I think the United States can argue they achieved their objectives. I think the Israelis or the other ones, and we've talked about this before, I think the US, and we always kind of forget about this, is is kind of wrapped up with the Israelis on it. And and I think for the Iranians, if the US can get the Israelis to back off, that's their leverage in some ways because I think for the Israelis, they're fighting that existential threat threat. I' I've said this before that, you know, a nuclear threat to the United States is different than a nuclear threat for Israel. I've been to Israel. It's like if you drop a bomb on on Tel Aviv, that's that's, you know, it's half the country. If you drop a bomb on Cleveland, it's not the whole country in the United States. It's terrible for Cleveland, but it's it's not, you know, as as >> it's not existential for the state of the US, for the United States.

[00:18:43]>> It [snorts] is. It is. And and I think and I think the US also is this is another challenge for me. The thing I don't think we talk about enough is that this is a challenge for US ability to be a great power. If it wants to maintain its idea of a great power status, it's got to be able to ensure freedom of the seas. It's got to be able to ensure that trade can move. Because if it can't do that, if if it can't do that, if the US military comes up short in this and they lose the straight of moves to the Iranians, the Iranians become a a controlling factor, which the Turks are over over the Turkish straits, the Danes are over the Danish strait, the Panameanians and and and Egyptians over the canal, then you know, is the US really a truly, you know, a hegemonic, you know, sea power in the way that the British were in the 19th and and 20th century and, you know, the country I watched is this more than anything else.

[00:19:35]It's got to be China.

[00:19:38]>> I'm glad I finally got you to give uh your political thoughts after all these shows. Um that was really interesting. I I want to read something too that just came in from al-N which is a pro Iranian probah news outlet and it's in line with the Al Jazzer journalist. I want to get your thoughts on it. It said theou includes the withdrawal of the US fleet from the vicinity of Iran. It also includes the release of half of Iran's frozen assets about 12 billion.

[00:20:03]That's a lot more than I expected. What do you make of this?

[00:20:06]>> I I don't see how the Trump administration does that latter part. I I mean I mean Trump wrote ranked Obama over the coals for, you know, literally, you know, saying that banks in in Virginia and Maryland were emptied out and cash was sent over to Iran. Plus, does the US give up the Persian Gulf? I mean, that's the headquarters of the fifth fleet. I mean, the US has military presence in the Persian Gulf. I mean there are there there's preposition gear in Kuwait and Qatar. There's American military bases there. Uh does does the US you know give up its its footprint in the region and you know Trump has talked about you know you know pushing pulling back and everything but it's one thing to pull back. It's another thing to be pushed back and and this looks like a push back. I mean this looks like that the Iranians are pushing them back. And I I just I just don't know. Again, this is my my fear when we read one thing from the Trump administration and we get the other aspect from the Iranians.

[00:21:03]What's the real truth? Because I don't think we ever get the 100% from e each of them. So, where it's always kind of reading between the lines with them.

[00:21:11]>> That is wild if it's true or that is crazy. That is crazy.

[00:21:17]>> It is. But, you know, I I also go back to this with Trump. Trump Trump I I've argued this for a long time. I grew up in New York and and and I know a lot of guys like like Donald Trump is he's he's a real estate guy and he goes, you know, this is, you know, this is what I want, but it's not what he wants. He's he's telling you the the extreme. What he wants is something lower. And he uses everything to achieve a political goal.

[00:21:38]And economics, you know, we we see this continually. We saw with the tariffs in particularly where he was leveling tariffs against Canada and Mexico initially, not because it was a trade issue, it was a border issue. It was it was, you know, fentanyl. it was it was illegal immigrants and and this is what he does. you know, what is his overall objective? And I don't think we really clearly know what his overall objective is if it's to degrade the Iranians. And and he can come out of this and sit there and say, "I've done more against Iran than any country has than any president has done since 1979." And he's he's right. I mean, he has. I mean, he's done more to degrade their abilities.

[00:22:16]And he can make the argument that the US doesn't get a lot out of the Persian Gulf, that it's not essential for our trade. If you look right now, the oil that we were getting out of the Persian Gulf, which was substantial for the United States, about 250 million barrels a year, he can make up with that out of out of Venezuela and other countries. I I mean, he can he can actually turn that around. And then if you look at his rhetoric now toward Cuba, he's ready to pivot. I I mean, there's still a substantial Navy military presence in the Caribbean left over. And if he's ready to pivot, you know, is this his exit strategy? Does does he come out of this? He he finds himself very much in a situation kind of akin to you know Carter in the 70s dealing with with with Iran. Does he that you know I don't think he wants this to be something that is going to define his presidency. So what does he do if he can back out and shift the narrative because he's really good at that Mario he's really good at changing the narrative you know does he >> changing the narrative and twisting the narrative making something that is not a win making into a win which is one of his biggest strengths. Such a good speaker.

[00:23:20]He he un well well and he understands media very well and he understands how to kind of control this and and again he he's found a way to do that minimal losses in terms of American lives and even with equipment uh and then he can pivot over to Cuba next and and and and start that operation which seems to be kind of brewing a little bit behind the scenes right there and you know >> I'm sorry just just on the like if Iran the money they'll controlling the shredder of hummuz and the fact if if this is true by the way um the US pulls its troops from the region that means the Gulf need to get closer to Iran now because they don't have the security umbrella of the US Israel is in a much more vulnerable position as well and the unfreezing of assets I don't think that's big of a deal you know they face hundreds of billions of dollars worth of damages to unfreeze $12 billion worth of damages is not that significant in the grand scheme of things you know he's unfreezing 5% of the amount of money of the amount of damage he scores them. [snorts] But they could make up the cost of these damages um through the toll booth on the trade of hummus and on top of it if they if there's a permanent control and US military presence in the region has been degraded has been reduced. Um, from an optics perspective as well, as you've said earlier, the image of the US being the hedgeimon in the world is just taken a massive hit. And you've talked about the US Navy and the importance of maintaining it post World War II um world order is that the US maintains the freedom of of navigation throughout the seas. It maintains global trade. That's what gave one of the reasons the US had that hgeimon that hedgeimonyy and that's gone. Not completely, but that's just taken a massive hit. Do you agree?

[00:25:05]>> I think the scenario that that [snorts] looms for me in this one is the only way to open the straight is is through some sort of political agreement with with Iran. And and I think Trump has a has a problem with that because whatever deal he makes, he's going to get burdened with. However, if he turns it into something like, listen, I'm leaving. I'm I'm leaving this to you. It's this is not our problem anymore. We've we've we've degraded Iran. We have we have reduced their military capability down to a kind of third level power. Now the rest of the world can come in with that, you know, UK-led, you know, force that's coming in with the French and everybody else. You turn this over and we're going to take our forces and we're going to go deal with China in the Pacific next or over there. You know, does this become Britain, you know, east of Suez, you know, in the in the 50s?

[00:25:56]decide to all of a sudden sit there and say, "Listen, this is not our, you know, we we've been talking about getting out of the Middle East now for this thing that Trump has talked about is getting out of the Middle East is is like how do we get out?" You know, because he was very critical on Biden for the Afghanistan. Uh he was critical on Obama for for Iraq. And you know, does he use this as his exit strategy? Does he sit there and say, "Listen, this is you. You deal with this. This is not our >> It's a bad look, but it's a bad look. If if he pulled out before this war, it'd be a good look. But if he pulls out now after this war, it's the optics of it that matters because yes, I think pulling out of the region could be a good thing for the US, focusing more on China, the the threat there and also reducing the cost with national debt.

[00:26:32]You know, anywhere you cut cost is a good thing and the military stretched thin and those bases also become targets. Many arguments to be made for that. But my worry is just the timing of it.

[00:26:42]>> Oh, I I agree. I I think I think I think his timing here is is this is this the moment that he wants to do this? Uh the optics are, you know, he's he's he's he's teetering on renewing strikes. I mean, calling everybody back from Memorial Day, you know, the motorcade rolling back into the White House, getting everybody there. So, I I mean, he keeps going kind of teetering between this back and forth on on on the use of this and, you know, is he trying to use a power play? Is he trying to threaten once again the breaking of the ceasefire going in using military strikes? I I think he's got the economics of the world, you know, kind of coming around, too. It's like we need to open that straight up. We realize that this needs to be opened up even even if the Iranians get a toll or if it's a group toll. If it's the if it's the the Gulf Cooperation Council plus Iran benefiting from this toll, that that's an interesting one. I I think, you know, that plays much differently. If it's just Iran in initiating the toll, I don't think that flies. I think if it's a Gulf cooperation council with Iran and I think >> I think it will be I think it will be >> I think that's a different >> Yeah because I think you can spend that you can spin that into development into into environmental you can do it whatever you want to say about it and everybody gets their share of it and and plus a lot of that money is going to be just turned back into the profits from the shipping that's going to come in and out anyway. So, you know, a $2 million toll on a super tanker carrying two million barrels of fuel, that's a dollar. You know, it's a dollar a barrel. You know, this is going to be something that's consumed very quickly, very, very fast. And especially if it resumes the traffic because again for shipping, my fear is if there is an agreement between the US and Iran, but it's it's leery. It's it's very it's held on by a thread, does shipping come back in in a way that it did pre-war?

[00:28:29]And I would argue it wouldn't. I would think even if it didn't come back in that level, it's going to come back very expensive because you're either going to pay that in a toll or you're going to pay it in war risk. You're going to pay it in the risk insurance to go through and and so are you giving the $2 million to an insurance company or are you giving it to the Gulf Cooperation Council in Iran in this toll? And I think that's the argument that they're going to start, at least that's what the commercial firms will probably sit there and say. We either got to pay one person or the other. I don't care who we pay.

[00:28:57]We just want to get the ships moving and get the cargo flowing. And that's going to be key for us.

[00:29:04]You know what I worry is that Iran now is more driven than ever to build a nuclear weapon. I spoke to two JCPOA negotiators in the last 3 days and they said both said to me and these are people that are proud of the JCPOA and they're very upset with what's happening now. They're like, "Mario, that's more of a concern now than it was before."

[00:29:22]And without the uh NPT being able to monitor everything, the IAEA, the the authority that monitors uh nuclear programs, without them being able to audit the nuclear facilities, it's easier than for Iran, easier than ever.

[00:29:34]Obviously, they've got the centrifuges destroyed. So, that that makes it harder. But if they rebuild those and they have the knowhow, that is a bigger concern now. And this kicks the can down the road for the nuclear deal. The agreement does not include anything for the enriched uranium. So maybe they never reach a deal on the nuclear program.

[00:29:55]>> They may not. And and this is was always the variable once you initiated this conflict is is, you know, Iran was getting to a point initially where I think the US could have lived with what they had in terms of, you know, uranium and and where the program was. But if you call out for zero potential at all, that's going to push back. Again, I I've used this analogy in my courses I teach all the time. If you're Iran, you have to sit there for a moment and think that, you know, you've got the US to your south in the Persian Gulf, they have nuclear weapons. You've got Pakistan on your eastern border, they got nuclear weapons. You've got the Russians to the north, they have nuclear weapons. You've got the Israelis, they have nuclear weapons. You know, you're sitting there in the middle and and you've got to realize the fact that that you know, your standing in the world is is nuclear weapons. This is what gets you to be the great power in some ways.

[00:30:45]And Iran has done that. They've done that in the level of of trade now.

[00:30:49]They're controlling global trade in a certain way. So, they're a major economic player. They they were never going to be a major trading partner. I mean, they just didn't generate enough beyond energy and oil, but now they can they can exert influence by pinching the straight, you know, and it's like a, you know, it's like the corateed artery or the jugular, you know, of of of global trade and they can do it and they know they can play that role. the nuclear weapon now becomes the other element that they can use as as they have it.

[00:31:16]And so does Iran now emerge >> ironically with less military capability but more influence than before. And I think that's the danger more than anything else that they're a greater threat post the conflict than they were after the conflict.

[00:31:30]>> I've got news for you as well from New York Times now.

[00:31:33]>> You ready? S breaking live with us on the air. Mario, there's no telling what you're going to tell me right now because the way this day has been going, it's like I I couldn't even imagine what you're going to say next. So, go ahead.

[00:31:44]>> Three senior Iranian officials informed the New York Times that Iran has agreed to anou to cease fighting and reopen the Straight of Hummus. The agreement would end all hostilities, lift the US naval blockade and allow free commercial traffic through the straight without tolls.

[00:32:02]>> Wow. Now, that is significant. That's that's the one really important. That is big. Without tolls, additionally, it would release $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets.

[00:32:14]>> I mean, I was going to come back to you on that one because that's the other element there. Do you get $2 million a ship or do you get $25 billion cash? I mean, this is this is you win the lottery. Do you take the cash out or do you, you know, you get paid, you know, over the 20, 50 years? And, you know, I think that's what the Iranians see there is is that advantage. I mean, and Trump's a business guy. I mean, he's given him the money up front and and that opens up the global trade right there. I I think that is is is >> that is huge. And and remember, I mean, Iran is sitting there now with something like 60 million barrels of oil loaded on tankers right now. I mean, so they can unleash those in a second now if the straits if the blockades over. I mean, they can send them off to China, off to India, and they'll make a fortune just off that in no time. And they can very quickly repopulate, rebuild themselves.

[00:33:05]And you know, they can restructure their military. They can get a new navy from China almost overnight if they wanted to. And we've seen their trade being developed on the Caspian Sea and on the back door routes. So I I think this is a you know, if this is the dealer, >> very significant.

[00:33:23]>> That is very significant. Wow.

[00:33:25]>> It it is. And and you know, how does Trump spin that? you know, what does the Trump administration say on that?

[00:33:31]Because I'm with you that that he absolutely hammered Obama on that issue of giving them their money. But I I think he he he will he will swing this in that global trade is reopened back up again. And that is it is a minute amount compared to what trade will do to resume. Now, I mean, we're going to have massive dislocation in in the global economy here because of the shutdown for three months. I mean, we're talking about almost 120 days or something. It's going to take, you know, over a year to restructure everything and get it back, even if it does restore it back to its pre-war levels. But this is definitely going to change uh in terms of trade, where cargo is coming from and how businesses are allocated. I think the US becomes a much bigger player now on global energy than it was before. And I think that's what Trump also can sell is like look at US energy exports are through the roof right now. And so he can make the argument that yeah this is going to cost money but it it's going to be huge benefit for the United States and that's his major play all the time.

[00:34:33]>> That is so wild.

[00:34:35]We had reports earlier that the deal according to the Alazer guy uh [snorts] that it includes a toll includes the removal of American bases etc which seems too extreme and now we're like the deal apparently doesn't include any of those and just includes no toll and the unfreezing of assets. Honestly, S, I'm not against the unfreezing of assets at all. I think Trump could paint it into a win. He got a win, so he gave him, it's their own assets. Um, if they agreed not to charge a fee, then so be it. The only problem though is they know they could do it later, that is the problem. So they got assets on frozen now and 6 months from now they start charging a fee and um the US just doesn't have the capacity to attack again. Did you know that the um the US has frozen assets?

[00:35:19]sorry, frozen the weapons delivery to Taiwan. And today there was a report they froze one. They delayed one for Japan by two years. The military is in a bad spot from a munitions perspective.

[00:35:30]That's why Iran Iran knows this. So they know they have leverage in that regard.

[00:35:35]What do you think as a as a former military man?

[00:35:38]>> Oh, I I I I think you you had this story earlier and you were talking about this.

[00:35:42]I mean, the weapon depletion is a major one. I mean, it really is. It's it's a big factor. This has been something that's been under the under the radar here for a long time, but a lot of people have been talking about it.

[00:35:52]Everybody knew that if you get engaged in a major conflict, you know, the the ability to ramp up and to resupply was a big problem. And this has been talked about in in congressional hearings for a long time. And and this this conflict was a massive expenditure. I mean, it was huge. You got I have to think that Admiral Paparo, the commander-in-chief of the Indo Pacific Command, had to be watching every tomahawk strike, just sitting there going, "This is depleting my my my issue." There was there was movements of of American destroyers over to the region because they were loaded with with precisiong guided munitions.

[00:36:26]They went over I mean, the truck, which was over in the Caribbean, had to come over to the over to the far east, over into the Indian Ocean because it was loaded out with tomahawks. And they I mean they just you know one of the big misconceptions is that every US Navy ship is loaded to the gills with weapons all the time. They're not. They're always cross- decking when they go into port. There's not enough. And and I think the US needs their way out of this conflict. And one of the things that we're talking about is this. If you look at the budget that just came in from the Department of Defense War, it's massive in rearmament. I mean it's talking about ramping up production quite a bit here in the weapon production. And so I I think this is an issue and I think again go back to what we talked about a little bit before. If you're you know uh she you're looking at what the US weapon expenditure was you know do they have enough for a large conflict in you know the eastern uh east Asia western Pacific should there be a move against Taiwan or some of the islands around Taiwan by China. And you know the US is is you know not able to really do both a a full-fledged war in the Middle East and one in the Pacific very well. And I think that is showing its weakness. This is the one of the reasons that I agree with you that if this is the deal, this is a deal that gets them out right now and gets trade flowing allows the military to reset and get itself reset uh repositioned. I mean, we saw what happened with the USS Ford and the condition it was deployed for almost 11 months. Uh, you can't keep American military forces strained like this. And we haven't even talked about aviation and and aerial tankers. I mean, it's been it's been a lot on the US military.

[00:38:04]>> Yeah, I'm just trying to digest everything.

[00:38:09]There's so much there. One second. We're talking about according to Iranian sources or or Iranian aligned sources, the US is pulling out of the region, unfreezing assets. Iran charges toll. It just looks like complete capitulation.

[00:38:22]And now the New York Times is like, "No, there is no pulling out." They don't mention anything about the pull out of US bases. There's not not a toll there.

[00:38:30]That is so surprising. I did not expect the toll booth one to be uh conceded on the Iranian side. They've done well playing hard ball because they've made it seem like this is non-negotiable. So, they've done well on the on the media side.

[00:38:42]>> They have. And and I come back to the issue about who's in charge and who's leading the negotiate. I mean, but the 25 billion, I mean, if you can get billions over millions, I mean, that's the deal right there. And and and if you're Iran, you got to think, I need the money up front. I need as much as I ca as I can to rebuild, restructure.

[00:38:57]>> Yeah. The economy is struggling. Yeah.

[00:38:59]>> And and so I mean, they they've got to kind of get themselves up. And I think they want more importantly to get that US blockade off them because I do think the blockade is biting into them. I do think that that is hurting their ability to get not just oil exported, but just regular material imported in on a regular basis. And so I I think that's going to be the big issue. And I think the US has been making overtures about targeting more Iranian oil out on the high seas, especially out off the east coast of Malaysia. You know, there are targets out there that the US can hit.

[00:39:30]At the same time, you know, we get a very good image of what happens in the US inside Iran. It's not always as clear as we like. And I think this gives Iran that opportunity then and and it also opens up the potential. I would not be surprised if Iran starts talking more about a a straight authority of some kind with the Gulf States. That's not I would think out of the business, especially with Oman. Oman, you know, doesn't seem to be completely against this in some ways. I think they see an advantage that they can extract some money out of this in some way.

[00:40:07]By the way, there's something on the Ukrainian front unrelated completely. Do you follow the Ukrainian war much? I follow it particularly on the Black Sea where they've been targeting ships like crazy right now and obviously that's been a big one. A lot a lot of targeting on the Black Sea between the Russians and Ukrainians both on commercial ships and military. But go ahead.

[00:40:28]Uh, one report says a possible archnic ICBM IRBM launch from Kaputnik Yar has been reported. So, you know the arrestic missile, the one that Russia's always been warning about, the one that has multiple warheads. Apparently, there's some reports that one has just been launched. And another report, at least six is M ballistic missiles have been launched at Kiev.

[00:40:48]There's been talks about a massive attack by Russia against Ukraine.

[00:40:52]It could be underway as we speak. Holy crap.

[00:40:56]This is, you know, one one of the things I've been talking about quite a bit here has been the Black Sea and and and the shipping arrangements there have been really, you know, kind of the key to kind of start off this breakdown in freedom of the seas that we've seen with the US executing its attacks against shipping in and around the Caribbean and now with the with the Houthis in the Red Sea and now the Iranians here. Uh this this is just really amazing kind of escalations here. I mean this this this looks so much like cold war 2.0 in many ways. It's just you know is is Russia Ukraine the Korean war you know is is is this the new kind of fight that we see?

[00:41:38]And you know unfortunately there's not a lot of backs stops on Russia and Ukraine right now because the focus has been on Iran so much.

[00:41:48]>> Jesus Christ man. What a night.

[00:41:51]Oh, it's just I mean again it's it's it it's absolutely crucial. I I think Russia's economic situation is is is really bad in many ways and they see that. I think they see an opportunity uh to do it. I think that that you know attacks on Russian shipping not just in the Black Sea but in the Mediterranean where we had drone attacks against tankers, these uh surface drones against this LG tanker. Uh, and then you're seeing the Europeans doing a lot more of control over their territorial waters, their straits, targeting Russian dark fleet vessels. I I think Russia is realizing that that they need to end this conflict. I mean, how long can you contain, you know, continue a war for three years? I mean, it's a massive economic drain on on both sides and and Russia has unfortunately military weapons that they can bring to bear.

[00:42:42]>> Yeah. more reports. Two Escandra ballistic missiles were intercepted over KEF. They were intercepted. Um, but we'll see how uh what happens out of this attack. Man, what a freaking world we live in. Sal, that is so crazy.

[00:42:57]That is so crazy.

[00:43:00]I every time I think things get quiet in terms of global shipping, it's it's it's the next new story starts emerging on the high, you know, right behind it. And it's just again uh even you know I go back to it Mario even if we get a good deal out of this you know what does this mean going forward I I don't think we return back to any sort of pre-war levels that we did obviously uh Israel is going to be looking at its defenses and its securities even more I still haven't heard enough out of BB Netanyahu what he thinks about this >> nothing yeah apparently according to Trump just typically according to Trump um uh he's the call went well but Nothing. Not a not a peep out of Israeli media either. No, this is my stance on what that means for Israel. Terrible. I think the balance of power in the region. I don't know what your stance is on Israel, Israeli foreign policy, the whole Israel first debate, but just kind of objectively looking at it. Um, I was saying, you know, just a year ago, I was saying Israel's having probably its best time from a strategic perspective and all the wins it had. you know, had the pager attack on Hezbollah. Hamas has been degraded. The Houthis are gone.

[00:44:07]Assad's gone. Iran just attacked in the 12-day war and they did not they didn't do much in retaliation. I'm like, "Wow, Israel is is is going to come out of this stronger than ever." You got the Gulf countries, many of them getting closer to Israel despite October 7th.

[00:44:21]And then despite sorry, the Gaza war and then now you've got um Hezbollah heading back hard with the drones. I'm not sure if you're watching this.

[00:44:29]>> The Hus are still there. Hamas is still there and Iran just for a lack of a better term beat the US strategically in the war in in the last couple of months.

[00:44:39]Um the US can walk away. I think the biggest damage is running out of munitions optically not a good look but people will you know you know the country can make up for it with future decisions. Israel on the other hand has to live with an Iran that that is not a fan of the country whatsoever. So, um I think that would that would that will change a lot in Lebanon and that might change a lot in Syria as well. So, um but yeah, I think I think Israel could be in trouble.

[00:45:06]>> I I you know, I've said this and and I tend to think this you know I mean since October 7th, Israel has saw itself I mean Israel always lives under the existential threat that you know Iran is out there to destroy it. And obviously since October 7th it has done I agree with you. I think it's it's in a better position it ever was in. It systematically eliminated enemies. It basically went through them and and and and attacked them and neutralized them and had the opportunity with with the attack on Iran to really remove that existential threat from them. And I think this is the argument I had is is I think the only leverage the US has with Iran is to get Israel to back off in some ways is because I think that the fear was that Israel wouldn't back off.

[00:45:48]they would keep coming and they keep you know trying to further cement their position and and I'm really interested that there's no conversation at all literally except for I had a talk with BB and everything was good you know it's like okay there's some sort of agreement there because the US has got to be able to leverage Israel and it has leverage with Israel it's got it provides the fuel for Israel it provides uh you know money it provides a lot to Israel so but the question is is that part of the agreement there that we won't know about that Israel will agree to kind back off at that point. You know, does it buy Israel 10, 20 years? I think Israel was looking for generational security. I think they were looking for the destruction of Iran and their enemies and looking for it. I'm not sure that's attainable at all without going a lot further and and and having the US fully back them with it.

[00:46:39]>> Sal, I really enjoyed the conversation, man. Going beyond chipping and having a political discussion and a military discussion as well. Always a pleasure to have you on the show, >> Mario. It's always a pleasure. I appreciate you inviting me on all the time and it's always great to talk to you. You are a fountain of knowledge and I love following you and all your guests you have on. Especially when you have >> I just ask questions, man. I just ask questions.

[00:46:59]>> No, no. When you get some good guys on, you have a guy like Anas on. I love I love watching.

[00:47:03]>> Anas is great. Anas is really good. He gets annoyed when I push back on him because he he's got so much more knowledge than me when I push back.

[00:47:11]Mario, let me finish. But I like him a lot. I I I always enjoy it when you have him on. He's a great He's a great fountain of of knowledge. He's good.

[00:47:18]>> He's incredible. Yeah. Thank you, S.

[00:47:20]Appreciate it, man.

[00:47:21]>> Thank you so much. Great.

[00:47:23]>> Uh guys, I've got Aaron David Miller coming on now. I'll be live in a couple of minutes. Um he's probably the the person to speak to when it comes to this deal. He's someone that's been negotiating in the region for for decades, especially when it comes to deals with Israel and and neighboring countries, including the Palestine issue. So, I'll be going live to discuss the latest developments and what that deal means. See you soon.