Scott Ritter| Trump & Netanyahu Lose Patience — Iran Faces Its Most Dangerous Moment

Ajouté : 2026-05-22

[00:00:00]Lenny Sarcot with what Iranian the head of Iranian parliament Kalibuff said. He said that people can be assured that our military forces have made the best use of the ceasefire opportunity to rebuild their capabilities. The enemy's covert and overt movements indicate that they are seeking a new round of war. What is your assessment of what's going on?

[00:00:24]because Iran it seems that they're preparing they're prepared to you know for the new round of war and what is your understanding of the forces in the region the way that Donald Trump is talking about it I don't know if we can get anything from Donald Trump but it seems that Iranians are somehow they're they're feeling that the war is coming and that's why he's talking this way your understanding >> I mean I I don't know the information they're looking at so it's it's it's hard to you know be able to say, "Oh, I agree or I disagree." You know, they made a conclusion. Look, Iran has every right to believe that they're vulnerable to attack because they've been betrayed so many times in the past and they um aren't likely to put much credence. But if I were able to talk to this individual and he was willing to talk to me, um you know, I would I would ask the following questions. um in 37 days, how many targets did uh America and Israeli bombs strike in Iran?

[00:01:26]You know, and he'll give me a number, you know, 25,000.

[00:01:30]Okay. Now, let's just break it down from a defense industrial capacity. Um how much damage was done to the Iraqi ballistic missile production capabilities? um you know was u you know Bradley Cooper saying that he destroyed 87% of your ballistic missile production capability. Is this an accurate assessment? No, it's not. We're doing this that and the other thing. So what you're saying is that the bombing campaign did not succeed in retarding Iran's capabilities. That's what I'm saying. Okay. Um you know and then we can just go on and on and on. You know what real damage has been done? uh what percentage of the buildings struck by the United States were empty buildings or politically motivated buildings that had no impact? And the point I'm trying to get at is when we look at the real impact of what America did to Iran in terms of I mean, you know, we sunk, you know, ships. Iran wasn't a blue water navy to begin with. So we we sank ships that, you know, doesn't change the fact that Iran still controls the straight hormuz and will continue and always will control the straight hormuz. Um it's so the the point I would make to him is that in 37 days we didn't do anything to you. We we killed some people, a lot of people. Um we killed some important people, but we didn't change your regime. We didn't interrupt your ballistic missile production capability. We didn't have any meaningful impact on your nuclear program. We didn't secure the straight moves. We didn't accomplish anything.

[00:02:58]And so now, Mr. Speaker, I would just ask uh what makes you think we think we can accomplish something this time around? I mean, what are you afraid of?

[00:03:08]Are you afraid that we're going to repeat what we did before? Why? You won.

[00:03:13]I mean, it's pain in the neck. Things go boom, people die. But why would America repeat that? What's your assessment of America? Um, you know, we depleted our long-range strike weapons. You apparently have some intelligence. Have we replenished our longrange strike weapons to the degree that you've replenished your missiles? No, not even close. So we we How How many days do you assess America to be able to sustain a campaign similar to the one that they did for 37 days? Less than a week, right? Yeah. What about [clears throat] their ability to intercept your missiles? When does that run out? 3 to four days, right?

[00:03:52]Um and how long can you cycle through? I just uh read something where you know people are claiming that you can um salvo hundreds of missiles a day every hour 24 hours a day seven days a week for a sustained period of time but striking all the targets. Is this an accurate statement or are you just playing a Donald Trump here and saying things that aren't real? No, it's an accurate statement.

[00:04:17]So again I I ask why do you think they would go to war with you? Um you've publicly stated that if uh if if you're attacked, especially your energy infrastructure, that you're going to immediately in this 247 campaign, uh target the energy production facilities of the Gulf Arab nations, including desalinization plants, that the United Arab Emirates will become return to the bed, I think somebody said. Um is this an accurate statement?

[00:04:43]>> Yeah. And what's your assessment of their ability to defend against this?

[00:04:47]None. Right.

[00:04:48]>> Yeah.

[00:04:49]So again, why do you think they're going to attack? Why? What? What? I mean, this is this is my question. I mean, I understand what they're saying. They have every right to be prepared for an attack, but why do they think they're going to attack? Because to attack to what end? What objectives are being sought and what are the what's the risk gain calculation that's being done on the part of those who would want to attack? Um, and I I I I would make the counterargument that Donald Trump can't attack because the Gulf Arab states won't let him attack. One exception might be the United Arab Emirates, but according to Donald Trump, they were on the phone, too, because maybe the light bulbs gone off over their pro-Israeli head, that the Israelis can't protect them from the Iranians and that Iran will terminate their existence as a modern nation state.

[00:05:39]Um, these these calls didn't happen an hour before Donald Trump was going to give Donald Trump was never going to give that order. Never going to give that order. And anybody knows anything about modern air war and the sequencing of events that have to go in place to carry out a an air campaign. Um, you know, this isn't something you stop one hour before bombs go down. This is something that gets stopped early on in the implementation cycle. The decision not to bomb Iran was made days ago, not an hour before the attack. Um, and so you have to ask yourself, why did Donald Trump do this? Because he's manipulating the markets. I mean, literally, he's in there. He he called the American economy a casino, and he's out there playing the game, and so are people around him. His truth social media postings are designed to generate market impact. Market impact that positively favors those who make the appropriate betting. knowing this social media post was coming out, when it was coming out, and what it was going to say. So, my my counter is that everything that's going on has nothing to do with positioning United States or Israel to uh you gain some sort of political or military advantage over Iran by continuing the conflict. It's all a giant act of theater. It's a charade designed to um you know, ostensibly put pressure on Iran, but I don't think Iran's feeling any pressure.

[00:06:56]And uh the secondary benefit is to have Trump in incorporated rake in the money from manipulating markets.

[00:07:05][snorts] >> Yeah. The assessment of the battlefield.

[00:07:08]I think you you're right about the reasons that you've just mentioned. But the problem is that we don't have a logical sort of thinking in Washington. And many people are arguing that Natio falters domestically right now. one of the main reasons that the United States may decide to attack Iran again because Netnu is just he's not in a good position right now in Israel and everybody knows what's going on there and he needs something though I mean there there's no doubt about that but how long can you play that card you know uh the first card uh you know the first hand was was played back in February 11th when Netanyahu and the head of MSAD met Trump one-on-one in the White House and sold him a bill of goods that has since been exposed as a bill of goods.

[00:07:58]They lied. They lied about their abilities. They lied about the weakness of Iran. They lied about what would happen if they killed Ali Kam. They lied about everything. And Donald Trump today knows that it was all a lie. And he also I mean Donald Trump knows that um I mean when he when he approved this war plan was it briefed to him as Mr. President we're um we're going in light. um these 37 days, we're only going to bring in, you know, 12% 15% of our capacity, but we're holding back the big punch because we really don't want to do harm.

[00:08:31]I think the opposite was, Mr. President, we're going in hard. We're coming in hard. We're hitting hard. We're pounding hard, and this this job is to break them down, to destroy them, to nullify them.

[00:08:41]Um I think that's what he was briefed.

[00:08:43]We're going in hard, and we didn't beat the Iranians. How much harder can we go?

[00:08:51]The answer is we can't. So, you know, I agree that the, you know, there's not too much rationality out of Washington DC, but there has to be a little bit of um obsanity left where people who, you know, are able to look at hard fact and say, "No, that's not going to fly." I think Israel, you know, the polls don't lie. 60% of Americans have become, you know, disenchanted with the US-Israeli relationship and there's growing anti-Israeli sentiment. Um, which is why Benjamin Netanyahu, in yet another act of desperation, uh, talked about cutting off financial ties with the United States. He understands the direction the wind's blowing, that the Zionist enterprise isn't going to be survivable or sustainable for much longer amongst the American people because Israel is not our friend, never has been our friend, always has been our enemy, and that's being exposed as such. And so, Israel is making a new friend, the United Arab Emirates. And um you know gosh those UAE guys are so kind because they pulled out of OPEC plus so they could divert all of their energy resources to the market uh so that they could become the bankroller of Israel.

[00:09:55]You see the symbiotic relationship there. Um now we know why Iran said this starts up again the UAE disappears. We're just not going to let this happen. Um but you know I I I don't see Israel having the same control over the United States. I mean, we saw what happens when they make when they go after a congressman. I mean, there's still that aspect of it.

[00:10:15]Thomas Massie was defeated by the state of Israel.

[00:10:18]Um, you know, it proves that American democracy can be bought, that there is a price. Uh, and apparently it's a lot of money, but they still bought a seat. Um, you know, so the the Israeli influence is real. It's here, but it's weakening.

[00:10:33]And um you know like anything that's u held on too long you know beyond its expiration date um it begins to you know not to be too gross but you know bottle of milk used by May 20th. All right I got it. I bought it May 15th and every morning I pull out my cereal and I put my cereal in there and I put the milk in and I eat it and I'm like delicious good milk. on May 20th. I'm like, put it in there. Not bad. May 21st, I can still eat this. May 25th, a little sour, but not bad. I put bunch of sugar in there, you know. May 27th, boom, it goes bad that quick. And um Israel is like a bottle of milk. It's been in the refrigerator about a week beyond its expiration date. we could handle the sour taste a little bit, but it's gone full scale bad and it stinks. It wrets.

[00:11:35]We can't drink it. It makes us ill. We got to pour it out. And um I think that's that's what's happening here is that Israel doesn't have the the control over America that it uh that it thought it had. Its expiration date is long past due.

[00:11:51]I think they were so happy that they defeated Thomas Massie in primary but it wasn't a defeat in my opinion when you look at what has happened they had to spend something like more than $30 million against in primary you know this is a primary this is not you know something and they have to go that big against Thomas Massie not only Israeli lobby Donald Trump himself Pete Hexet JD Vance everybody. We had Steven Miller, all of them together attacking Thomas Massie with huge money going against him. That's a defeat for Israeli lobby.

[00:12:31]I don't think that >> I agree with you. Look, here's here's the reality. 60% of Americans are are dis disenfranchised, disenchanted, I think is the proper word, with Israel. 60%. It's going to get bigger. MAGA which is the base of Donald Trump um doesn't want to become MIGA and they are rejecting it. You know Thomas Massie you know it's one thing to say you know oh you're not voting for the president you're not doing this and the other thing all right but he was voting the will of his constituency which is why he kept getting reelected.

[00:13:04]Um, this election wasn't a victory for Trump. It was a defeat for American democracy. And MAGA recognizes now that we are mega full-scale MGA. I think this comes back to haunt the Republican party um in the in the midterm elections. I mean, you might sneak in a candidate here. there's a candidate in Louisiana that's winning here. But at the end of the day, on the national level, um these these Israeli victories are defeats of American democracy and American people are starting to recognize this. I think this is what they would call a pirick victory. um you know derived from you know the winning the Greeks winning a battle where they lose too many guys and they uh or the Romans I guess were fighting then they lost too many guys yeah Romans you know they fought a battle they won but too many legionnaers were killed so ultimately they lost the war could be the Greeks I got to go read up my pelpeneisian wars and history of Rome uh now that is Ping's made it vogue again to uh you know quote the thudicities trap and things of this nature But um pirick victory, people can Google it. Um I think I'm I got it. Peric pirick. See the Greeks and the Romans. It's one of those ancient civilizations.

[00:14:21]But I think this is a peric victory for the for the pro-Israeli crowd because they in pouring all this money in they what they did is they proved that American democracy can be bought and Americans don't want their democracy to be for sale. Not this way. Not by not by foreign power. We we're more than happy to let you know big pharma do it. You know, let Loheed Martin could do it. You know, the gun lobby could do it. That's okay. That's that's amongst family. But when the Israelis come in and bite it out, no. Especially when they got us involved in a war that we lost and we're losing and we're not going to win.

[00:14:58]>> I think the problem that Donald Trump is facing right now is not about the United States. He can declare victory and get out of the Middle East and go. I I have nothing to do as he did before with Houthies, with Yemenes in in the Red Sea. But the problem is that there is no way for him to wrap the situation up in the Middle East as though Israel is winning. That's the problem. And Israel, there is no way to change that reality for Donald Trump. Donald Trump can come out of the conflict is not influencing.

[00:15:30]So I'm I'm going to open up the trade for most I'm going to get told. that's not going to influence our economy and everybody going to get pass through the state of hormones. But the problem is the Israeli sort of position has been diminished so much and that Donald Trump cannot save them, cannot change the reality for Israel.

[00:15:50]No, we we see that again the the reality is you know in the statement of Benjamin remember in September of 2023 um there was the G20 meeting in uh in India and Donald Trump went there. We talked about this uh the uh India Middle East European economic corridor and Joe Biden gave a big speech about how it was going to change the world because of October 7th. People have forgotten about this but Benjamin Danielle came out the same day he gave a speech where he said this is the greatest moment in modern Israeli history.

[00:16:34]the greatest moment in modern why why why would this be the greatest because Israel knows that it's in a you know economic demographic trap that it's a you know people are pouring into Israel from from around Zionist the Zionist enterprise is uh succeeding but this costs more money and the more they pour in the more they alienate Palestinians and regional neighbors the more they create the potential the friction that leads to conflict the more you have to invest into defense which is very expensive. Where's this money coming from? Your economy is underperforming, increasing isolation around the world, especially after Gaza.

[00:17:11]Um so you you need to change the paradigm and that's what the Abrams Accord were supposed to accomplish by you know creating um sort of normaly between Israel and the Gulf Arab states predicated on economic cooperation that would be dominated by Israeli technology and Israeli you know financial uh you know capabilities. Um but you still okay you got that potential but now you need the injection of um of wealth of you know real economic activity and that's what the India Middle East economic corridor is supposed to provide the ability of a container ship to get put on a port in Mumbai go to Abu Dhabi get off put on a train that transits UAE Saudi Arabia through Jordan into Israel and then onto a ship in Hifa and goes up to Greece and offloads and onto Europe and This activity would be combined with what Israel was doing with its offshore gas where it was trying to have an energy hub with Turkey and uh and and suddenly be able to send its gas into Europe and the you know economic power that occurs thereof. Those two things were going to make Israel a self-sustaining economic miracle which it wasn't. You know, everybody could talk about Israel this, Israel that. Israel was a economic basket case unsustainable without, you know, outside intervention here. This would allow Israel to become that. This is what made Netanyahu so happy. But today, the Abrams Accords are dead. No Gulf Arab state except the United Arab Emirates apparently is willing to do that. U the um the the economic corridor is is dead in the water, but I mean, they're breathing life into it now because of the UAE. Uh but the fact is Saudi Arabia isn't going to do business with Israel as long as Israel is doing what it did with uh with with Panama.

[00:19:02]The And the other thing is Israel is no longer the economic miracle that everybody thought it was. It's been subjected to um you know blockades by the Hoodi. Um it's been subjected to massive infrastructure attack by Iran.

[00:19:17]um and has been subjected to increased diplomatic and economic isolation as the world wakes up to what a horrific entity the state of Israel is. This genocidal murderous baby killing uh prisoner raping society. Um and people are rejecting it. Um and so Netanyahu is desperate right now. He's in trouble.

[00:19:36]Israel is collapsing and and the United States isn't going to sustain Israel forever. Um we're losing we're losing it. We're losing support. Um, in the United Arab Emirates, it's a joke. I mean, I feel sorry for the people that live there, but this is just an absolute tragic joke. The the direction they're taking, the decisions they're making are purely suicidal. Um, and you'd think that, you know, these people would be smart enough to understand that that's but they've they've cast their die. They're they're they're in all the way with with um with Israel. At least that's the way things stand now. Maybe uh the phone call to Trump to stop the war might have been a dose of uh of reality. Uh but you know there we are.

[00:20:20]>> How do you find the non-aggression pack and what Russia and China are trying to do together with Iran? It seems to me because Saudi Arabia was asking for non-aggression pack. I haven't heard anything from Iranian side but it seems something going on with the negotiations between as I've mentioned Russia, China and Iran and the whole concept of the middle east which is so important by the way for two projects north south corridor and belt and road initiatives which are of paramount importance for China and Russia.

[00:20:58][sighs] First of all, non-aggression pack won't work if the United States isn't out of the Middle East. Um, you know, why not can't you sign a non-aggression pack with the United States? Really, you want Iran to go to bed with that piece of paper on their table? The United States is agreement incapable. Um what what needs to happen though is that Iran needs to have non-aggression packs with the totality of the the region, Saudi Arabia included, and the Saudis are taking remember don't think it's surprising that the Saudis are making this call. Uh the Saudis worked with China and Iran to come together and and create reproge a few years back. Um, and the Saudis know, you know, they have a a better understanding than most about the geopolitical realities of energy security and um, and where Iran is today. And so they're looking, but the the there has to be every nation involved in this non-aggression. It has to be a regional non-aggression treaty um, signed by all powers. And the guarantor can't be the United States. I mean the United States of course might play a periphery role and say it's it's part of it supports it but the guarantor has to be primarily China um in the economic um if you want to do business with China you have to sign this non-aggression pack something of that nature they won't be that blunt because doesn't work that way but I think having the Chinese and the Russians work that's is a is a good deal um and it's both as you said in the interest of Russia and China the north south economic corridor linking St. Petersburg Chabahar and the new silk road that links tan with western China and then on into the depth of China. You know these are essential corridors of of wealth for you know for Iran and for and for the region. Um so you know that's that's the that's the that's the new reality. security security architecture is going to have to move away from a US- ccentric architecture to a multi-polar archite again the importance of what just happened in Beijing between Vladimir Putin and Jin Ping can't be you know understated it's uh you know this is two of the world's most powerful influential nations coming together and they're not seeking a bilateral world they're not seeking a return to the um to the cold war they're seeking a true multi-polar world that empowers many nations, not just a handful. And um you know, this is the this is the new reality that the United States is going to have to adjust to one way or the other.

[00:23:29]>> We used to have OPIC and OPIC plus to decide about the price of oil. Do you think we have a new alternative in the market which is the straight of foremost because the flow tankers through the state of foremost can change the price of oil in my opinion in a long run.

[00:23:49]>> Yeah. But that's u I mean from a practical standpoint I mean in terms of outcomes um sure I mean look we used to have Ramco you know the uh the American Arab uh oil company um the ArabAmerican oil company and they basically overproduced Saudi oil production infrastructure. I forget the numbers at 12.5 million at one point in time was maximum production but they were only producing at nine million. Why? Why have Because that's very expensive to have all this infrastructure that you're not using.

[00:24:25]And the answer is because when the United States needs more oil on the market, the Saudis can increase. You don't have to wait. They've got it right there. Just turn it on. Out it comes.

[00:24:34]Go. And then when we tighten it up a little bit, the Saudis do. We we had that relationship that said we will guarantee your security in exchange you help be our market control mechanism. Um in theory Iran could do the same thing through a straight hormuz constrict release constrict. The difference is they're constricting shipments that aren't their own.

[00:24:57]In Saudi Arabia with a ranco you're turning on Saudi oil pipes which are connected to Saudi oil fields and all that. here would be Iran constricting the global economy and that's that could be effective in war but in peace that's that's a non-starter.

[00:25:13]Iran could never be seen as actively squeezing the um energy production potential of Kuwait or Bahrain or Iraq or even Saudi Arabia by saying we're only going to let certain amount of ships through there. Um so this is why we need a ceasefire um effectively. But what's important is that the Iranians can shut it down anytime they want to.

[00:25:36]It's also important that Iran keep it open and allow for the free flow of energy as long as you pay your little your total tax. You know, $2 million a ship, I think, is what they're they're they're they're charging depending on the the cargo. But, um, let that happen and and you're you're good to go. But um I don't think Iran is going to be controlling um the because that's that's not Iran. First of all, Iran's never said that they're going to become the, you know, the arbiter of who makes money, who doesn't make money. Iran believes that all nations that produce energy are sovereign nations and that's their sovereign decisions. And I believe Iran would support that as long as nations aren't positioning themselves.

[00:26:18]So I think part of the um a regional security framework has to include a energy security component um you know where you know in addition if you have non-aggression packs that means Iran doesn't fear overnight the straight hormone is being shut down which means Iran then must commit to the free flow of energy um you know and there has to be some very well-defined exceptions to that that so that everybody understands that if this happens this happens this happens then Iran has the right to do this but so long as expectations are met, Iran has to let the traffic go through.

[00:26:54]I think that's why I would say Israel is losing Saudi Arabia and Qatar because the situation the calculation on the part of these governments in these countries has totally changed and do you think that is there any way for Israel to you know to do something about it or to reverse what's going on with the case of Iran because Saudi Arabia and Qatar are I would say so much dependent on Iran right now with I it doesn't matter if they're going to rebuild or they're going to build new pipeline but it's not they're not going to get everything out of their countries by these pipelines they're going to be dependent on this rate of for not only when it comes to this rate we have the internet cables that they're talking many people are talking about that in Iran right now >> this is I remember in the 1990s um I had a conversation with the Israeli is about the growing threat of Hamas. Um, when I was traveling to Israel from 1994 through 1998, every time I went to Israel, there was a terrorist attack, a Hamas terrorist attack that killed people. Blowing up Disenoff bus, blowing up a restaurant, blowing up this, blowing up that, blowing everything.

[00:28:09]Some of it happened right next door to me. Um, I could hear the explosions. Uh, one blew up a restaurant I had lunch at the day before there before the graves go by. I mean, it was a and um you know, and so this was day-to-day reality in there and um I had a a conversation with a with an Israeli and because you know, I was working with the Israeli intelligence services, security services. So when we'd have lunch, we'd talk about a variety of things. And um you one of the interesting things they said is that the one guy said the best way to make peace with Hamas is to actually um negotiate directly with them. Invite them to the table and make them part of the solution, not just being the problem. It's very easy to be a terrorist when everybody expects you to do nothing more than just be a terrorist.

[00:28:57]Very low bar. Uh but if you have to become a problem solver if you now have a vested interest in the solution different you know it's politically impossible for this to happen because of the domestic dynamics but you know one by one I could if I were in charge of Israel I could do things for instance Gaza needs to be rebuilt totally totally I would create a mechanism to rebuild Gaza for the benefit of the Palestinian people. But give you an example right down here.

[00:29:32]They're developing. I had a relative once, she uh very smart lady, made a lot of money. And uh I remember I visited once and on her table she had a map of Bosezeman, Montana. And I said, she lived in Beverly Hills in a million-dollar house. What the hell you got a map of Bosezeman, Montana on? She said, "Well, I'm buying land." I said, "Oh, well, how do you buy land? I mean, how many?" So, she had mapped it out.

[00:29:56]She sat there and she predicted where all the critical crossroads would be. He said, "This is where they build banks.

[00:30:06]This is where they build gas stations.

[00:30:07]This is where they build infrastructure." So, I'm going to buy the land that they need to build the infrastructure. And then when they come to me, I don't sell them the land. I lease them the land. So, I keep a continuously. I keep control over the situation. So, if they ever piss me off, I can sell the land. and their bank is gone. They has to go. Um, and I went, "Well, that's sort of evil genius." And it was. I would do the same thing with Gaza. Um, I wouldn't say it out front, but I would I would rebuild Gaza, but I'd buy every piece of property on the important cornerstones and I would own Gaza that way. And I'd make sure the Gaza people prospered, but they also understood at the end of the day who who controlled what. Um, or maybe if they don't understand, for instance, I right now it's the same thing, development taking place down here. I don't know who owns the crossroads, but I do know that, you know, that's going to become very essential for the local economic development of this of this area. So, whoever owns it is sort of has more control than an elected official in many ways. Um, that's how so I could solve the Gaza problem without any military force and actually rebuilding and making it look good. But at the end of the day, I have direct control over what happens in Gaza. I could do the same thing in um in in in Lebanon. I could withdraw completely from Lebanon. First thing I do, therefore, though, is rebuild Beirut. And I'm not going to let the Saudis come in. I'm I'm going to use my cutouts and I'm going to own Beirut. I'm going to buy the tear down the buildings, buy the important crossroads, build the infrastructure. Um, therefore, politically empower certain people.

[00:31:41]Rather than seeking the isolation of Hezbollah, I would seek the co-option of Hezbollah. I would tell Hezbollah, I want to work with you. I want you to be part of the future of Lebanon. I want to redirect Hezbollah's activities from fighting me to building Lebanon. But they're building a Lebanon that I control because I control the crossroads. And you see, I could do this game all day long. I could do the same thing with Iran. I'd be building economic reach into Iran. I'd be do that's how Israel wins this war. But the Israelis can't think that way. They don't understand that because they have to dominate. They don't they don't have the the patience, strategic patience.

[00:32:15]They become such a warlike society and a racist society. But Israel, there's so much vulnerability in Iran right now.

[00:32:22]There's so much vulnerability because it's been subjected to sanctions for so long, aging infrastructure, a lot of damage has been done. There's the the the necessity of reconstruction has to be something that it will define.

[00:32:36]You saw what h you saw how powerful Rashan Johnny became after the end of the um the Iran Iraq war. How did Rasan Johnny become so because he got involved in the reconstruction of Iran of Iran and he empowered the revolutionary guard to get involved in that too and the revolutionary guard went from being a bunch of 20-year-old fanatics who you know did their bonsai charges at the Iraqis to being businessmen. The revolutionary guard today is a far more sophisticated entity today because they were involved in the economic rehabilitation and reconstruction of Iran. Uh there's a lot of political potential in reconstruction and if I were the Israelis, I would stop bombing stuff and begin talking about how I can own the crossroads and to think long term and make things happen. Um that's that's that's what I would do. That's the only way Israel's out of this.

[00:33:26]Israel thinks they're going to get out of this by bombing. It'll be the end of Israel.

[00:33:31]>> What do we know about the Iron Dome batteries? Who's producing these batteries? Because Hezbollah is hitting them right and left, not only in southern part of Lebanon. In the last in 24 hours, they hit three of them. Today, we've learned that two of them were hit in the northern part of Israel. And I don't know how sustainable is that for Israel with this sort of new attitude of Hezbollah attacking using FPV drones to attack iron dome batteries.

[00:34:00]>> Well, it's not just iron dome batteries.

[00:34:01]They're attack they're attacking the depth the logistical depth of uh of the Israeli presence. You know, Israel has never had to deal with um Hezbollah having the the kind of potential to dominate um the operational depth of the battlefield. Hezbollah's always done a very good job at the point of contact and Hezbollah has shown in the past the ability to send uh Kushka rockets in to upset the uh political economic balance of northern Israel. But the Israelis always sort of had free hand to maneuver and to concentrate troops and to build logistics and all this and then to flow resources into the battlefield and flow resources out. Well, now at the at the at the tip of the spear, Israel's getting the snot handed to them. I mean, they're just the Hezbollah is just beating them raw. Straight up fight. I'm not saying Hezbollah is not suffering casually. Of course they are. This is war. But uh in Israel has a lot of technological advantages, but the Israeli soldiers aren't that good.

[00:34:59]They're not that brave. They don't want to die. Um I'm not saying anybody wants to die, but if if you go into combat believing your life is valuable, you're going to die sooner. If you go into combat believing that you are an expendable resource and therefore you will be professional in the use of this resource to ensure that you get the maximum benefit out of it, but understanding that war is designed to kill and there's a likely probability of you dying. uh you might live because now you're doing all the right things.

[00:35:25]You're not hesitating at the moment because you think you're going to live because you think your life's valuable.

[00:35:29]You do what the training tells you. And I think Hezbollah operates that way. I'm not saying the Hezbollah people don't get scared. I'm not saying there isn't.

[00:35:36]But I'm saying overall Hezbollah is a much more professional, efficient fighting machine than the Israelis are because Hezbollah people understand and are prepared for the potential of death.

[00:35:44]And the Israelis don't want to die. They avoid death. Therefore, they make mistakes. They're hesitant and they die.

[00:35:49]as well as exploiting this on the battlefield and now throughout the depth of Israel. Um they're going 20 30 kilometers in with these FPV drones and it's just absolutely devastating for Israel. Israel doesn't have an answer to this problem.

[00:36:04]But is that going to force Napio to change its policy or you see the same sort of attitude and how long does the United States want to support Israeli and what are the capabilities of the United States right now producing these sort of missiles interceptors for Israel and you you you didn't mention the Iron Dome batteries who's the >> Iron Dome batteries you know I mean first of all you have to be careful you know Israel expends a lot of Iron Dome missiles I mean, so they Oh, you you're froze, so I don't know if you can hear me or not.

[00:36:38]Um, the clock is ticking. I'll keep talking just in case the audience can hear me and you can't. Uh, but um, you know, Israel expends Iron Dome missiles at a in a prodigious level. So, you know, taking out one or two batteries here, you know, doesn't change the strategic balance. Um, what but it is a problem because every battery you take out, that's an area that's supposed to be defended. is no longer being defended and now other weapons and other resources can be brought in. Um, could you hear me the whole time or was I just babbling into thin air?

[00:37:11]>> Yeah, I can hear you right now.

[00:37:14]>> Okay. Because I got three I got two of you on screen. I got I got Nema. Oh, there. Now I only got one of you. Okay.

[00:37:20]I don't know if your audience heard me, but and I don't want to repeat. Look, the Iron Dome. Um, no, it's it's it's a thing just like anything else. Um, you know, but the Israelis produce a lot of iron. Do I mean we produce I mean we we we build it for him. We build the the missiles. We build everything. Um, are you alive or there? Move. So I know you're alive.

[00:37:40]>> Yeah, we're alive. Go ahead.

[00:37:42]>> It looked like froze. I was like, "Oh no, he did it again."

[00:37:46]>> But no, this is a problem. When you take out Iron Dome, I I'm not so worried about the impact that has on on production. Um what what it represents though is that Hezbollah can now dictate um you know operational realities uh into the depth. Um the Iron Dome is supposed to protect. You don't just put Iron Dome half-hazardly. Um one of the things the Israelis taught me, I mean it was it was actually brilliant. Um you know we were trying to look for um installations of value in uh in Iraq and Iraq's a big country. So what the Israelis did is they sat there and they plotted every air defense installation in Iraq, plotted it out. And then you have, you know, you have the the the the rollins and other things that that are only used to protect high value things.

[00:38:33]So you look where the rollins are. You assess it. You assess it based upon the threat dynamic that's coming in. You start drawing arrows where the you know the air defense is laid out to build a defend against a threat coming here here and you get the intersection of the threat arrows and you go there's something valuable right here and then you start looking around going ah look at that look what's going on over time they built a new road here they brought in power here there's something happening in this spot okay now we're on to something um so when Israel puts Iron Dome home down or something. They're protecting something because the Israelis when we projected onto Iraq doing this what I thought was brilliant, you know, air defense pattern analysis, the Israelis are projecting on because they understand that they deploy air defense in a similar fashion. This is a big hint to the Iranians right now.

[00:39:25]If you want to know where some value is in Israel, plot out all the air defense and do what I just told you because that's how the Israelis think. Um, things of value. But that's um I'm going to get in trouble for saying that. I'm not here giving advice to the Iranians.

[00:39:39]Anybody who's fighting a war, do air defense. You Ukrainians, you can do that against the Russians. And you Russians, you can do that against the Ukrainians.

[00:39:46]I'm an equal opportunity air defense pattern analysis guy. But the point is when when Hezbla blow these things up, they're blowing up something that's there to protect something. So now you've created vulnerability at something. I believe Hezblah has done this kind of analysis. They know what that's trying to protect. And by destroying these, they're creating, you know, vulnerability windows that can be exploited so even higher value targets can be struck.

[00:40:12]>> Scott, how do you compare Donald Trump's visit to China to what we've seen with Vladimir Putin and his visit of China?

[00:40:22]And where are we head headed with the war in Ukraine?

[00:40:27]Because it seems that something is escalating between Russia and Europeans.

[00:40:32]I don't know how devastating that could be. Do you think that Donald Trump was talking about it during his visit of China or he because it's all it was all about Iran as I remember he didn't mention anything about Ukraine but it seems that Ukraine is getting serious as time goes by.

[00:40:52]Well, first of all, um, your audience has to take every word I'm about to say with a grain of salt because I said that Jin Ping would meet Vladimir Putin at the airport and I was wrong. The foreign minister met him.

[00:41:06]Now, the foreign minister is a member of the Polit Bureau and the vice president who met Donald Trump isn't a member of the Polar Bureau. So, there was an upgrade, but my uh my sinology skills are off a little bit, you know. So, uh, it is what it is. But the look these are two totally different meetings. The outcomes are totally different. Uh China was seeking to manage the United States.

[00:41:28]Um and the United States was seeking to manage China. So there two sides trying to manage each other. One side managed better than the other China. But this these weren't meetings of friends. Vlad Putin and Jinping are friends. This is a meeting of friendly leaders and nations who are not just in a friendly relationship but a strategic relationship of u of extraordinarily depth extraordinary depth and longevity.

[00:41:54]This isn't a short-term alliance of convenience. This is a long-term strategic u association of necessity of survival. Um and that's what that's what happened. uh this is gamechanging and it creates a solid foundation for what's next. You know, one of the important things about the Trump China meeting is that uh Trump was put on notice about the existential value attached to Taiwan by the Chinese. They actually said conflict that we will have a direct conflict with you if you interfere with this. um that statement now is directly applied because the Chinese have likened Russia's interest in Ukraine to Chinese interest in Taiwan. So even though Xinping doesn't come out and straight up say we support what Russia is doing in Ukraine, the indirect uh relationship is clear that they do. And now what they've done is they've created strategic depth energy uh associations, economic uh relationships that will survive any potential escalation and I believe there will be an escalation. And I think war between Russia and at least one Baltic state is inevitable as a war of warning.

[00:43:03]I believe that I think it's Latafia will be taken off the map. Our Russia's already identified numerous military and leadership targets that will be taken out. They'll be taken out decisively.

[00:43:12]And I think Ukraine is going to be eliminated from the playing board as a political viable political entity. I think that Kiev will be annihilated by a mass arration attack, destroying the decision-making centers of the Ukrainian government. If they relocate to Lavau, Lavau will be taken out. Russia's done playing games. Um, it's it's over. They pushed Russia too far and they got Russia into a zone that if it continues, Russia suffers existential consequences.

[00:43:39]Russia's not playing that game. And so, Russia is now going to win and win decisively. I think the United States is aware of this and that the United States isn't going to do anything um in response to a reasonable Russian reaction. Reasonable Russian reaction would be the physical destruction of Kiev and uh a very meaningful sharp decisive uh attack on a Baltic state as a example. But the danger is if Europe doesn't take you know the lesson and seeks to continue um the next strike will be against decision-making centers outside of the Baltics uh into Europe proper and uh I believe that that will target Germany in particular.