Severe risk EXPANDED for our area tonight

[00:00:23]Well, with potential for severe weather, you knew Studio C is going to be active today. I've got Rick Duca in here. I'm Mark Weinberg and Bryce Jones will be joining here in just a moment. And I wanted to come in here and just join you guys here in the middle or in the beginning here, Rick, because we have seen a notable expansion >> on that severe weather risk. The enhanced yesterday was only our northern fringe. Moderate did not include our area and the slight cut off in northern Clark County. And in the last 24 hours, we've seen a market expansion on that, which now we have for the first time a moderate risk this year, which does include a portion of our area. It's not it's not a large area, but nonetheless, we do have a moderate now officially in our area. That expansion of the enhanced risk, that's the one that we kind of talked about last night that needed to happen.

[00:01:08]>> And so the moderate now includes around Bedford through Seymour. And the enhanced goes from approximately Hardensburg through Shepardsville through around the Lawrenburg area.

[00:01:17]North of that, we've got that severe weather risk. Uh they increase the tornado threat, increase the severe thunderstorm wind threat, and increase the destructive wind threat. So, what we're going to do here, I'm going to go back into studio A, which is on TV. If you guys want to see me, you'll get me on TV. And Bryce and Rick are going to be covering this severe weather potential from Studio C. So, I'm going to turn it over to these guys. I'll see you on TV. You guys cover the severe weather here graphic. So, we're going to start out just simply with the severe weather ingredients. Make sure we got those. And there's the risk right there.

[00:01:48]All right. So, here we go. Let's take this full not us.

[00:01:52]>> A lot of buttons there.

[00:01:53]>> I'm It's like I'm working Xbox or something.

[00:01:56]We are ready to go talking about the severe weather. And yes, as you can see clearly on this map, it has been expanded now to include just about all of our area here, Bryce. And so Mark's out, just so you know, uh Mark is on a newscast. It's 4:37, so he's running back and forth between the two studios just to give you an idea of behind the scenes how this is looking. And so Bryce, >> give us the latest. Where does this risk go? Who's included? who's not included and which level are they in?

[00:02:27]>> Yeah, Rick. So, as Mark and you mentioned just a minute ago, a lot of our area has been upgraded and I'd say almost our entire area somewhat has been upgraded since earlier. So, when I came in this morning or even when Ric and Mark Weinberg on here last night and did a live with you, that slight risk that yellow stopped at the river, stopped stopped north of Louisville. I came in this morning, it had been moved down through Louisville and northern Bullet County and that was it. Then we started looking at data a little bit more. I was like, man, that that rain that's I'm going to show you here in a second that's up in ill, it's up in central Indiana right now, it's pushing a lot of these storms later further to the south.

[00:03:03]We may need to expand that slight. And this light got expanded and then 38 minutes ago, 39 minutes ago at 4:00, the Storm Prediction Center pulled that enhanced risk further down. So, you can see how this is kind of an evolving situation um across a lot of her area.

[00:03:17]Louisville is now included in that level three out of five enhanced risk. Uh Rick, that includes Bullet, Spencer, Northern Nelson, Me County, and everywhere north. And then just the itty bitty tip top of our area.

[00:03:29]>> I know. Lawrence, >> yeah, Lawrence and Jackson um are clipped by that level four out of five modern. As you mentioned, that's the highest that we've had in our area so far this year, which normally we're not able to say that normally >> in June. And normally wouldn't say that in June at all. Um but we just have so much wind energy with this system coming up um that it it was probably needed.

[00:03:49]>> Yeah. And I think people may be curious what changed >> y >> from Monday to today that we are seeing now this risk getting expanded. Um well there's a couple factors. Number one we talked about that cap that warm layer in the mid levels which is still there but it's just not quite as strong. So that's that's going to be one of the issues here is we don't have that strong inversion where we have a lot of warm air which would kind of suppress thunderstorm formation. The other factor is that we now are seeing a little more directional shear. So there's two types of shear. Speed where you go from the surface increase in wind speed up in the atmosphere but there's also directional shear which can enhance severe weather and that is the twisting and the turning as you move up in column. And that is why we are more concerned with severe weather potential, high winds, hail, and yes, I hate to say it, this is one of those nights you may lose some sleep because tornadoes are possible and can't even rule out a strong tornado. Yeah. Or two. Now, I know a lot of people saying, "What's what is a strong tornado?" So, Bryce, we have categories. We go weak.

[00:05:01]>> Yep.

[00:05:02]>> Strong to violent.

[00:05:04]>> Yeah. Uh strong I would usually consider an EF2 or stronger as a strong tornado.

[00:05:09]Yeah, a tornado is a tornado. Don't get me wrong. Even if it's an EF0, that can still knock trees down. But once you get around EF2 or higher, that's when you get strong tornado, you get above EF3 and go to EF4 and five, that's when you get to violent. I don't quite think we're talking about violent in our area or very long track, you know, ones that are on the ground for 50, 60, 70 miles, but but I mean, a couple of these could get on the stronger side. Um, as Rick mentioned, all those hazards are in place. In addition to that, just want to quickly mention we have a flood watch out also for our area cuz the atmosphere is juiced up. You're going to feel it soon as you step out the door. The humidity is back and storms are going to eat up on that a lot. So, with the storms that are moving through, they're going to have a lot of really heavy rain with it. That goes in effect at 9:00 tonight. Um, and is in effect all the way through tomorrow at 9:00 um simply because of this kind of system hanging around a little bit um for Thursday. So, Rick, all this is starting to move into southern Indiana. You're like, that's kind of that's it. That's what we have a that's what we have an enhanced risk out for is that little shower in southern Indiana, but that's not quite the case.

[00:06:11]>> Yeah, that is that is not the storms that we are watching. This is the system out here that will generate those storms and then throw those in our direction.

[00:06:19]But I know a lot of people saying, "Well, I'm getting the rain right now.

[00:06:21]It's it's not so bad up there." Um the actual strong storm potential doesn't really open until around midnight or so, >> which means yes, that's why I said you're probably going to lose some sleep because it's one of those nights where you'll be up 1 2 3:00 in the morning. Um and like I said, and like Bryce kind of mentioned, this is this is a situation where they will start stronger in our northern communities and then hold together and at some point start to weaken. But that point now has drifted farther down to the south. And that does mean more of our area will probably end up dealing with some warnings in some fashion, whether it's tornatic, severe thunderstorm, just >> this is a great time to prepare.

[00:07:01]>> Sure. Sure. Yeah. Especially since considering the timeline.

[00:07:04]>> Yeah. You have adequate time to you want to have ways to get warnings.

[00:07:09]>> If let's say you live in a structure that isn't >> sound, >> then you want to be able to have a place and a plan to go somewhere um if that all happens to unfold. So, this is this is, you know, we're not here to freak you out. Plan, don't panic. And that can help you uh avoid a lot of the stress, the anxiety, and also help keep you and your family safe if >> if you happen to go under a tornado warning.

[00:07:31]>> So, hopefully we're able to ease some of your anxiety coming up. So, let's dive into first of all what's happening now.

[00:07:36]So, the winds are starting to pick up over the next few hours on your if you're heading home here in 15 minutes for the 9 to5s. If you're at home through this evening and as we get closer to sunset, you're going to hear the wind start to howl a little bit.

[00:07:47]It's going to pick up. It's nothing crazy. It's not quite wind advisory level. It's borderline, but you can see those winds back to the west. Paduca, Evansville, Madisonville, 30, 35 an hour wind gust. Not a huge deal, but it plays into this. The wind's going to pick up, which further brings our temps up, which is why we're hanging out in the mid 80s in Louisville. And while we've got a lot more mid 80s to the south, um, something else that is worth mentioning, Rick, is the fact that with the rain that's moving into southern Indiana right now, it's cooling the atmosphere off up there. a little bit >> which further moves this a little bit further south and west which is why you saw that enhanced uh get expanded into our area and that south wind rig is also increasing a lot of lowle moisture >> right and I think if you stepped outside at all today what's the difference you kind of feel it first off it's it's warmer >> it's windy >> and that's going to push the heat and humidity back into our area and speaking of humidity >> there are your due points right there Bryce we're upper 60s that's invecting in which is more than enough to produce severe storms. It's one of those nights where you're going to step outside and maybe >> 10:00 and be like it's something's fishy.

[00:08:57]>> It's a little >> You can feel something in the air.

[00:08:59]>> Something in the air where where you don't where you don't want to sense it.

[00:09:03]>> Yeah.

[00:09:03]>> Um and that's the thing. We are here to take you through the storms >> before. We'll be here during. We'll be here after. Bryce is working right now doing the lives. Mark's on TV. We'll be back in here doing lives later. There is basically no way.

[00:09:21]>> You have multiple ways to reach us.

[00:09:22]>> Yeah. You can't you can't say you didn't reach us because we are going to be here. Yeah.

[00:09:25]>> On every platform, whether it's YouTube, whether it's Facebook. How many Facebookers we got? 79 in here right now.

[00:09:31]>> Uh so if you are or YouTube rather, if you are watching on YouTube, I need you to do me a favor. All right. For you, let's say for Bryce. How about that?

[00:09:40]Bryce. Bryce really needs you to do this a favor. But you should hit the subscribe and like button. that way >> you get notified every time we come.

[00:09:46]>> Yeah. And and that's really important when it comes to this. Um so yeah, you you can feel that summer soup coming back in here. And >> it's not even officially summer yet.

[00:09:54]Summer starts Sunday.

[00:09:55]>> We're we're getting there.

[00:09:57]>> Father, >> Saturday, Sunday, one of the two.

[00:09:58]>> The 21st.

[00:09:59]>> Yeah. Whichever one the 21st is.

[00:10:01]>> That's Sunday. It's also Father's Day.

[00:10:04]Summer's trying to steal our show.

[00:10:07]>> Hanging in there, man. Uh for those that are asking questions, by the way, we see you. We're going to get to you at the end. Um, so we're going to go through the timing. I saw some people asking about timing and then we'll get into specific questions um once we get to the end here. So, first of all, if you have evening plans coming up this evening, I don't really think you're going to have too much of a problem. You want to hit the I had a buddy text me earlier, am I arcade of golf after work? Yes, you're fine. Now, the wind's going to pick up a little bit, so man, that'll be fun. But in terms of having evening plans and staying dry, unless you're in Lauren Jackson or Jennings, I don't think it's going to be too much of a problem. I think we'll stay mainly dry. Um heading into this evening, it's mainly after around midnight is when we start to see those lines of showers and storms from our west and from our north starting to creep into our area a little bit. And I think if you're in our far southern or far northern counties in southern Indiana, that's going to be when this is kind of kickstarting is around midnight to around 2:00. And Rick, you can see some of those storms to our north starting to eat up on that energy that's available. But what you don't see is really north going up toward Indie where originally that moderate was really expanded through central Indiana.

[00:11:15]They've kind of pulled it down toward our area a little bit because of the rain that's out there right now. It's cooling the atmosphere off, >> right? So they've made adjustments and that and that's kind of, you know, teams do that, coaches do that. Halftime comes in, if you're losing a game, you don't go out there and say, "All right, just keep doing the same thing if you're a coach."

[00:11:32]>> Yep.

[00:11:32]>> Uh you you make adjustments. And that is exactly what the Storm Prediction Center is now doing. They are seeing what's happening and how this day has evolved and now making adjustments to that which explains the fact that we now have a lot of our area in enhanced >> and then parts of the area in moderate.

[00:11:47]And I know people you might be a little confused as to you know what is what is what does all this mean? Well, let me give you the breakdown. So slight risk means severe storms and damaging winds are going to be isolated to scattered.

[00:12:02]Okay, once you get into the enhanced, it becomes scattered to numerous severe storms with very large hail, damaging winds, andor tornadoes. And the moderate is one below the high, which is the worst, which we don't want to be in. But the moderate, which it covers sections of Lawrence County, that is for scattered to numerous severe storms, and they could produce very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. And as we mentioned, some of those tornadoes may even be on the stronger side. And that is very important when it comes to um the messaging tonight.

[00:12:37]>> You know, before it was maybe just a week spin up, >> but since that rain has now shifted that moderate southbound, we can't rule out a stronger tornado. And that again would be an EF3 plus or in that vicinity. So, um you know, we're not trying to scare you saying strong, but it's something you have to know and be aware of.

[00:12:57]>> Yeah. It's >> it's a good time just where's your safe place?

[00:13:00]>> Yeah, exactly. it and it's it's not impossible to get one of these. And I think if that were going to be the case, it would more likely be along or north of I 64 where these storms you see here on your screen at that time are at their strongest. At some point, they will be weakening from north to south. It doesn't mean they're going to be weak when they get to Louisville, but when the storms get to Louisville, they should not quite be the strength that they were up in, say, uh, Seymour, for instance, or up into Bedford. So, if you're asking for timing, I'm thinking around 1 to twoish for most of our southern Indiana communities. That's when the majority of these are going to be moving through. And um something we have to watch out for is some of these starting to become a little bit of a broken line. You can see one up there in between Seymour and Madison. When these start to break apart a little bit, they can spin easier and they can rotate a little easier. And that's something that's recently in the data that we're going to have to watch out for. Now, Louisville in particular, heading into this evening, we're thinking probably between around 2 and 3:00 a.m., Rick, is when a lot of this is moving through.

[00:14:01]Data is arguing two to four, but typically with MCS's with this, they move really fast and they go ahead of sometimes what data thinks. So, >> typically by an hour or so, >> exactly. So, probably around 2 to three is when it's going to be at its highest chance in Louisville. And you can see it's still packing a punch in here. I mean, look at how fast the wind barbs are moving there, Rick. I mean, they are they are moving quick. And I mean, we're at a zoomed in look here, >> but I think from around I'd say 2 to around 5:00 a.m. or so is probably going to be that 2 to three hour time period in Louisville of when those storms are going to be most likely, >> right? And we know storms at night are the absolute worst. It's, you know, while you don't have as much fuel sometimes, the fact that you lose sleep and the dogs go crazy, >> you're up all night, the kids are saying, "What's going on?" on. You're going in the basement or maybe thinking about it.

[00:14:52]>> Yeah, >> it's not fun and I totally get that and it's a pain and you're going to be a little tired tomorrow. Um, so just if you just accept that now, get it out of the way and focus in on the fact that we could have strong to severe storms tonight. Hopefully that will kind of help things along a little bit. But yeah, um, it's one of those nights where, you know, you're going to have to pay attention. Have multiple ways to get warnings. Make sure your phone has the WA on the wireless emergency alerts.

[00:15:22]That is very important. Um, do you have any other tips there, Bryce, for for just, you know, the overnight hours?

[00:15:28]>> Yeah, I mean, like Rick mentioned, I think the WA alert is kind of what wakes a lot of people up. Even like, God forbid you get an Amber Alert that goes off at 6:00 a.m. I mean, nobody wants to hear that, but obviously it's out for a reason, but it gets your attention, right? You get to work, man, man, did that did that wake you up at 5:00 a.m.

[00:15:44]this morning? like, "Yeah, I did. I heard that."

[00:15:45]>> It wakes you up. If you don't have a Noah weather radio, that is the best thing that you can have by far. I keep I have one. I don't keep it in my room, but I keep it in my basement. Yeah.

[00:15:55]>> Um, and that way you can get alerts no matter what. Um, now a lot of people are probably wondering, is this something I need to stay up for worrying all night?

[00:16:04]I always argue against that because the more tied you're going to get, the more stressed out you're going to be, and then if nothing happens, then you're just going to be mad nothing happened either. So, I think in this case and scenario, have a plan like Rick mentioned. You know, go to sleep, have a way to get warnings that will wake you up in case you get one because I'm I'm sure we will have many in our area tonight.

[00:16:27]>> There's some people who, and I understand your logic, I can't go to bed.

[00:16:32]>> I can't either. I can't either. I mean, I'm preaching I'm trying to preach to the choir, but >> I know. I know. But and that's the thing. There are there are people who also, you know, storm anxieties, it's a real thing. So, it's they're not capable of going to sleep. And I we're going to be there for you to keep you keep you informed, keep you entertained, and also at the same time.

[00:16:51]>> Um, usually there's one person in the family who's who's all right, >> I'm going to handle this tonight. I I I got I'll Yeah. Just just just have someone around the clock kind of thing.

[00:17:01]Um, but yeah, like like Bryce said, having those wireless emergency alerts absolutely critical. And also download our app. It's absolutely free. Yep. And that way you can get more weather information. If you want to check the radar at some point tonight, you can go ahead and do that. But that timeline that Bryce went through, very important as to how this all unfolds.

[00:17:23]I'm hoping we can shut it down in Louisville by around 5. Right. That that's the hope. Um, now if you live further south, if you're in Etown, you're probably talking more 3 to 5:00 a.m. Once you get south of Etown, these storms should be weak enough to where maybe we'll have a couple severe thunderstorm warnings, but I'm not too concerned with the tornado risk as much when we get down this far south because now you're almost at daybreak tomorrow morning. So, your temperatures aren't going to look like what's above us here and around our area in the mid 80s.

[00:17:52]They're going to be a lot cooler. Um, which means there's going to be limited instability. um and they're not going to have as much to work with. But look at the difference in Seymour there, Rick.

[00:18:02]77 there from the rain that's moving um in our northern counties.

[00:18:05]>> That's almost a 10 degree difference basically from Seymour through Bardstown. And this is our cool four box that you'll see a lot of when we cover severe.

[00:18:13]>> That way you >> you know we're just in a tiny little box. You can see the graphics full. Also our one of our camera networks showing four specific areas. And then that's our highdeinition radar. Um, basically showing you reflectivity, correlation coefficient, which something we'll get into if we have to. Hopefully not later on tonight.

[00:18:34]>> But now, now is the time, Bryce, >> where people can ask questions.

[00:18:37]>> Y >> and what we're able to do is do our best to answer all of those questions for you. So, drag them on, Bryce. Let's bring those questions in and let's uh we'll fire away.

[00:18:52]All right. So, first things first, if you've asked a question, don't be afraid to ask it again. We, you know, we had to go through some of the information and get it out there first. That way, you know what's going on about the expansion of the risk >> and now it's, you know, a good time to go ahead and fire away. So, let's hear him.

[00:19:10]>> Um Josh Cypes, could this be a Mayfield level event? So, Josh, I would say no.

[00:19:15]Um, I I don't think this is quite that case. Um, Mayfield was kind of an anomaly. Um, the time of year that it happened was very odd. There was a lot of wind energy. There was more turning with the winds in southwest Kentucky that day. There was a moderate risk out for that day. I do understand that. Um, but I don't I also don't believe that Mayfield was an MCS either. Um, no.

[00:19:39]>> No, I don't think often with MCS's you're not going to get these EF5s that Mayfield was almost. Um, so I would say no. I would say no. Doesn't mean we can't get a strong tornado in our area, especially in the northern half of our viewing area, but I don't think this is a echelon type of event or anything.

[00:19:58]It's just one that's it's a little more elevated than we've seen here recently because we had such a quiet severe season this year. I guess not doesn't help anymore since >> No, but uh >> it's a good try though. Valid effort.

[00:20:10]Um, we also have a question from Gary Dent asking, "Are we expecting power outages tonight in New Albany?"

[00:20:17]>> Listen, Gary, I can't say exactly where power outages will occur. Um, because a lot of the strongest winds tend to be localized, but is it a possibility?

[00:20:26]Absolutely. It's a real possibility, which is why I would suggest having your phones charged before bed or having one of those bricks in case you happen to lose power. That way, you can still get information, you can still get warnings.

[00:20:37]But as Gary said, power outages are possible.

[00:20:42]>> Yeah, they are. Especially since a lot with MCS's, the main threat with any of these storms are going to roll through damaging wind.

[00:20:48]>> Winds. The winds >> and and we talk about all the time, the leaves are on the trees now. Um so anytime you get an 80 m hour wind gust moving by, I mean, it it's going to act as a parachute. It's going to put a lot of weight on these trees. So I would say some scatter power outages, as Rick mentioned, um are possible. Rick, someone asked about specific tornado risks for some areas. Um, I have the tornado risk map pulled up from the Storm Prediction Center on the latest that what they've put up. So, let me just kind of explain it to you. I know it looks confusing.

[00:21:15]>> It looks confusing. I completely understand. Um, so this 2% risk goes all the way down through where that slight risk goes down near the Campbellville. A 2% risk is basically saying there's a chance of a spin- up. It's a nonzero risk. It's there though. Louisville's included in that. But I also want you to notice that Louisville is included in those diagonal lines. That's what we call a hatched area. And that hatched area signifies the chance for a stronger tornado, an EF2 or stronger. So the Storm Prediction Center is signifying that down through about Louisville, you can't rule out a strong tornado from forming. When you go north of there, you go into New Albany, you go into Jeffersonville, you go through Madison, um, and you come over toward the southern half of Orange County, you run into that 5% risk. You go up through Poli, through Seymour, and now you're in the 15 or the 10%, excuse me, and then that 10 that 15% risk, excuse me, it's the higher upper echelon of it, where that moderate risk is. And that's mainly for northern Lawrence and northern uh Jackson.

[00:22:12]>> And then the Storm Prediction Center has been a little more loose.

[00:22:15]>> Yes, >> with these hatched areas so far this year. It's kind of a change that we've seen. Um, but that does signify a strong tornado. There's there's a whole bunch of other layers to this that we're not going to even get into. Um >> but again, this is something um you know, I know a lot of people are and I can see the the questions flying by just asking specific towns. Do us a favor. If we give you a town, let's say if we talk about Louisville, then assume it's similar for New Alb >> group in New Albany, group in Charleston, group in Jeffersonville.

[00:22:45]>> You got to you you know, we can't be that specific um in terms of every single person. Um but hopefully if we give you a general idea. Yeah.

[00:22:53]>> So let's kind let's we went through the whole >> um >> the zoomed up version of future radar.

[00:23:00]So why don't can we go through the um >> just the basic the whole DMA one more time. So here's what we're going to do.

[00:23:06]So everyone who's asking what about my town? Um this is what I need you to do.

[00:23:11]Here's the map. Find your location on the map. And you should know this anyway. This should be something that you have stored up in the old memory bank. Um but so again, Bryce is running through this. Uh here we are making it through 1:30 in the morning. You can see storms across southern Indiana. So this is 1:30 in the morning, which means if you're in areas like uh let's say Poli through around Seymour, uh Bedford, this this is this is you. Okay, we advanced to two and now it's overtaken a good chunk of southern Indiana. And if you look in Kentucky at 2:00 in the morning, if you're in Etown, if you're in Munfordville, if you're in Lfield, if you're in Campbellville, you aren't seeing anything. So, I really want you to be clear in this that this is going to move from north to south. So, we move forward around three to four is when we have these storms here in Louisville, give or take a little bit. You got to give these things a little bit of time typically to move faster. So, while data shows around 3:34, this could be an hour earlier. always allow a nice little range, but those storms strong and severe through the metro. And we don't like to see those breaks either because some of those breaks could allow for spin-ups to happen. And then those storms are in Kentucky around 5 to 6 in Etown 7:00 in areas like Campbellville through Munfordville and then they slide their way down to the south and then we'll see a reflare start to happen during the afternoon as that front slides in. But hopefully now that you've seen the hourby- hour forecast, it gives you a better idea.

[00:24:42]>> Yeah.

[00:24:43]>> So you know what to expect and where. So um >> that should cover every county that we just me every county that is being asked. Um I also want to mention you know people a lot of concern with the tornado risk which I mean understandably enough but I want you to look at the difference between the tornado risk and those percentages. And now let's look at the damaging wind risk. The damaging wind risk is about here and the tornado risk is about here.

[00:25:04]>> Good point. Both are still elevated, but the damaging wind risk is definitely higher than the tornado risk. This is a pretty wide um 30% risk. And you see there's another hatched area. That's for significant wind gusts. That's around 70 m an hour, 75 miles an hour or faster.

[00:25:20]Louisville's included in that. Bullet County, Spencer, um northern Nelson, Meen, everywhere north. Um you go down towards Springfield, you get down toward Lichfield, you're included in a 15 and then so on and so forth through our south. But I just want to show this to signify that damaging wind risk is higher and I would say more likely than the tornado risk, but the tornado risk is still elevated enough to where it's important to keep an eye on.

[00:25:42]>> Damaging winds number one. Okay, just to be clear. Um Bryce, this one this one makes me a little nervous. McKenzie Boyd is saying her kid is camping in Salem, Indiana for church and assuming that will hit them tonight. I don't see a way it doesn't.

[00:25:56]>> I I I don't see a way it doesn't either.

[00:25:58]Even even if even if it's just a regular old thunderstorm that ends up moving over Salem, >> I mean, you know, you don't really want to be out camping in it. So, >> no, I don't I wouldn't recommend camping. And also, is are they camping by water? Because there's also a flash flood watch out >> can cause issues >> and we could see a quick rise. So if if they are by a body of water between the fact we have a severe risk enhanced risk there and also a flash flood watch those two things alone would have me saying this is not a good idea to be out there tonight. Um so hopefully McKenzie that that's just that's my personal opinion.

[00:26:35]Um I would reach out to whoever is in charge and let them know that there's not only severe risk there's also flood potential. So hopefully that can give you uh a little bit of help and making some decisions. Uh >> let's see. Someone is asking about um tomorrow. Tomorrow we have a lower end um severe risk out for our area. Um and by lower end, I mean it's it's a slight risk, but um it does only include a couple of us in our far southern counties. We want to mainly focus on tonight because it has an elevated risk to it. This is what tomorrow's looks like. Um, and it only includes basically along and south of the Kentucky Parkways because as Rick mentioned, that line that moves through tonight, it's going to go down to the Kentucky Parkways.

[00:27:15]It's going to fizzle out and it's going to lay down a boundary where it dies off and then once we heat up again, it'll reflare and then pop up a couple more of those, maybe a couple stronger storms tomorrow afternoon, but we're mainly focused on what's moving through tonight.

[00:27:28]>> Right. Um, got another question. Um, Kiara Lynn is asking, "No basement in Jeffersonville. Should we shelter somewhere there is one? Uh, what I would do is if you know someone who lives close by that has a basement and a sturdier shelter, maybe shoot them a text, give them a call, reach out to them. Um, you know, there there's the possibility you don't go under a tornado warning. And if you have a house that at least has a good amount of walls between you and the outside and there's a nice bathroom in the middle where you can kind of hunker down, then you would be fine in that situation. So, my advice to you would be find someone who you can get to quickly. I don't want you to be driving any more than five minutes. Um, because usually tornado warnings don't give you that much time. And the last place I want you to be >> is out on the road because that is the most dangerous place to be in a car. So, that's a decision you need to make. Um, if you if you don't have a basement, if you don't feel safe with the structure of your home, because I don't know your home, I don't know what it looks like, then I would definitely reach out and go somewhere that's safe. Um, but basements are the best place to be if you can get underground. Um, >> that's where you're safest.

[00:28:38]>> It's it's your safest thing. And and and at night, I know, you know, people can lose >> you can lose like your attention span a little bit where you where you you know, you're not really paying attention for a little while. So, I feel like it's important to make sure you designate someone in that household to be on top of this. Um, that way if a tornado warning is issued, it's like muscle memory. You know exactly what to do. You go there, you do it immediately.

[00:29:02]>> Um, Don Wilson on Facebook's asking, "Will the rain now help lessen the higher risk of storms later?" Don, great question. So, um, the rain that is moving through southern Indiana right now, uh, Lawrence Jackson and Jennings, it can help. It doesn't get rid of a chance, but it can help. So temperatures right now up in Seymour about 10 degrees cooler than where they are here in Louisville. What this is probably going to do, it's probably going to push some of this risk a little bit south and westerly. Now that can still include Lauren Shacks and Jenny's County because most of the more impactful rain is just south of Indianapolis and up in Indianapolis and it's cooling that air off. So a lot of the storms that are coming are coming out from the west.

[00:29:38]They're coming out of Springfield, Illinois. They're coming from around Effing Effingham. Effingham Effingham, Illinois.

[00:29:45]>> Close. Close enough.

[00:29:46]>> Close. uh and they're heading toward our area. So, a lot of these storms are going to dive toward where the most muggy and warm air is. So, it can help some, yes, but uh I don't think it's getting rid of it. And that is a big reason, in fact, on why that risk has been shoved south further u to include um to include more than our area.

[00:30:04]>> Gotcha. I got a YouTuber on here, Woo 69 says, "Is the flood threat or the storm threat more dangerous tonight?" The storm threat with damaging winds. So I can be more specific, not just the storm threat, but the damaging winds threat.

[00:30:19]That is going to be the number one problem we have tonight. Damaging winds which could snap tree limbs, take trees down, cause power outages. That is going to be our main concern out there tonight. Um so please don't, you know, I know the flooding threats there. There are so many layers to this in terms of threats just because it's it's an MCS.

[00:30:39]These things, it's a messcale convective system. uh they have a lot of wind energy and the wind energy alone in the atmosphere is substantial. So we are we are talking about kind of a situation we don't often see in June where we have this kind of wind energy. So we're going to get warnings.

[00:30:56]>> I would say 100% we are going to get warnings.

[00:30:58]>> We get warnings. It just depends how far south >> that they can extend.

[00:31:03]>> Um >> you got another question. Bryce >> TSB Godzilla on YouTube's asking will this be a Joplin situation? So, I never like to compare two big events ever.

[00:31:12]Ever. I don't like to compare April 27th, 2011. I don't like to compare Joplin. I don't like to compare Henryville to anything because no two events are the same.

[00:31:20]>> It's not even on that level.

[00:31:21]>> It's not.

[00:31:22]>> Yeah, it's not. No.

[00:31:25]Um, >> let's do let's do so three more questions. Uh, let the best ones win.

[00:31:30]Three more questions.

[00:31:31]>> And if you don't get your answer question today, Rick and Mark will be doing another one later on this evening as well. So, be on the lookout for their posts and you can get hopefully your question answered there. And you can always follow Rick Duca or myself, Bryce Jones, on Facebook. You can comment a question, ask us a question directly.

[00:31:47]We'll try to get back to you if we can.

[00:31:50]>> So, what time to expect the storms in Louisville? This is from Haley Gay Clark. I think it's a great question, Haley. So, um, you want to pull up the future radar just so we can just so we can not just talk about it, but we also look at it. Oh, I don't like seeing those 70 m per hour winds.

[00:32:03]>> Yeah, that's the wind energy that he was talking about earlier. So that's about a mile above the ground. Just to give you a little bit of perspective, we look for around 40 >> to bring in severe weather and we've got 70. So we've got plenty of it.

[00:32:13]>> So Bryce, I'm going to bring this so people can see a little closer. So Louisville, you're talking >> I'd argue more two to three.

[00:32:19]>> Two to three.

[00:32:20]>> Um I mean this run wants to tell you more four, >> but as we mentioned kind of earlier if you're joining in a little late, these things usually move faster and oftent times are about an hour ahead of what data kind of shows, right? Um, so if you want to give yourself a little bit more of a broad time frame, I'd say between two and four, but I would argue probably more between two and three. That's when it's going to roll through. Now, how long is it going to take to get south of Louisville is kind of the next question.

[00:32:44]I think at latest it'll be out of here by around 5:30, but I would hope it would be out of here a little bit quicker than that. Um, this isn't something I think where you're going to have a severe thunderstorm warning for an hour and a half. You know, these things move very quickly. I would say a a 45minute warning where you should be away from windows kind of seek shelter that that's the most likely scenario.

[00:33:08]You will not be um in your safe place for hours on end. This once the line comes through >> the severe threat goes away.

[00:33:15]>> So you kind of get hit quick, get hit hard um and then you can go back to bed.

[00:33:20]Yep. So that's how this should unfold.

[00:33:21]Uh next question, Bryce, is on you, brother.

[00:33:25]>> Let's see. Um, I have a singlestory home and my hallway is probably the safest place without windows, but it's next to the water here in the furnace. Should I be looking for somewhere to go tonight?

[00:33:35]I'm off Preston Highway. Dustin Marshall asked that question. Dustin, I think your hallway is um probably sufficient.

[00:33:40]Um, I mean, if you know somewhere you can go that has a basement. I mean, that's always going to be our best bet.

[00:33:46]If you don't or you don't want to bother somebody 2 to 3 a.m., I completely get it. Um, >> well, hopefully they're up, too.

[00:33:51]>> I mean, that's true. Hopefully they are.

[00:33:53]That's a good point. Um your hallway um with no windows um is going to be your best bet if you don't have a basement.

[00:34:00]As many walls between you um and the outside as possible.

[00:34:04]>> Absolutely.

[00:34:05]>> Uh let's see. So Hollyanne Hagen asking, "Is the cap able to break these storms down? The cap is not as strong and the directional shear is stronger. That is not a good recipe to help suppress severe weather unfortunately because that spinning can overcome >> a lot of factors in the atmosphere that want to kind of shut storms down. So the cap isn't as pronounced and the the fuels there. The wind energy is there and the wind energy is a more favorable one for enhancing severe weather. uh stronger updrafts, larger hail, yeah, possibility for tornadoes and some of that wind getting drawn down to the ground where you can see wind gusts around 70 miles per hour, which would be considerable. And if you think about that, 74 miles per hour is hurricane force winds. So, it's possible and conceivable that we may see in some pockets hurricane force winds out there tonight. It is not out of the question.

[00:34:59]>> All right, last question.

[00:35:01]>> Last question. Let's see who's going to be the lucky one. He's gonna be lucky.

[00:35:05]>> Lucky one.

[00:35:07]>> Oh man. Someone asked about a do Rick.

[00:35:10]Um >> I mean I think >> this a do level event they're asking.

[00:35:13]>> I mean it >> I mean it's kind of hard to say because MCS and DO are kind of >> Yeah. They have there's defin MC every every datio is an MCS.

[00:35:22]>> Yes.

[00:35:22]>> But Datio has specific terms. I think it has to travel 250 miles and within that have wind gust of 68.

[00:35:29]>> That's like specific parameters that it has to >> datio covers a much larger area. So this is think of this I mean it is it's it's basically a a mini version of that if you want to I don't want to call it a mini do because there's no such thing but it's a smaller version and similar things can unfold. It's just not over a massive area. So I know people kind of get caught up on some of these words and and it's a good one to know but regardless we're looking at um damaging winds and that's going to be the one thing that you need to take away from this video.

[00:36:01]Yeah, and it's something we'll have to watch for um in this compared to a normal do or an MCS in general, we need to watch and make sure this line doesn't become too broken. If it's one line that's going real fast and it's boowing out, you're going to have straight line winds. You're going to have straight line wind damage, which is bad enough as it is. But if it starts to break apart and you start to get like these little gaps in between and they become start become their own little supercells, that's when it becomes more of a straight line wind damage and becomes a tornado threat because if one of these can break apart from the main line and it can start to separate a little bit then it can start to spin a little bit easier then that would be where tornado risk comes into play. So >> we'll be watching for it tonight where you're not going to be going through this alone. I promise I'll be at home but I guarantee I probably will not mentally he'll be here.

[00:36:50]>> Um all right so here's the deal. Marks is still on WD news. He will be on until 6:30 and then I hop on. So hopefully you can catch me on WDB at 6:30. Bryce has been here all day. Um he's here late, so hopefully he can get home and try to relax before not getting sleep tonight.

[00:37:08]And for the rest of you out there, we really appreciate you coming to us and trusting us for weather information when it comes down to the safety of you, your friends, your family. Um we take this stuff seriously. We really do.

[00:37:20]>> We live here, too. We I mean, our families are here. And >> I mean, this is our city, too. You know, it's not like we're coming to you from Atlanta or coming to you from San Diego and we're like, ah, you know, oh well, little >> keep it keeping it local. We got your back and we're going to be there for you every step of the way. So, thank you for joining us. We will be on later. Like Bryce said before, like, subscribe, make sure you follow us on every platform, whether it's from YouTube to Facebook.

[00:37:45]And that way when we go go live later because I promise you we