有志国合意、今後増加　日本はルール改革主導を　ＷＴＯ事務局長

Añadido: 2026-05-25

[00:00:06]Well, first of all, I I want to uh say one or two. One, the first thing is that global trade is going through some of the biggest disruptions in [clears throat] 80 years.

[00:00:18]Um and these are very difficult uh times.

[00:00:23]I think what we have seen is that uh following the the the imposition of reciprocal tariffs, we first forecasted that global trade will contract by about 0.2%.

[00:00:38]And then when the tariffs were amended, we changed our forecast to look growth of 0.9% last year. Then further, when we looked at the numbers, you know, we had to keep revising our forecast. We actually improved the forecast to 2.4% because we saw a lot of front-loading of of goods that I I that businesses are done ahead of the tariffs and so on. So, we forecast 2.4% and last year trade growth was very resilient. It came in at 4.6%.

[00:01:14]So, almost double the forecast. Why was this?

[00:01:19]Because there was something that must The impact of the tariffs first The tariffs, as you know, were adjusted and amended. Uh and and so looked much better in August than they did at the beginning of the reciprocal tariffs even in April.

[00:01:36]But something else happened.

[00:01:39]We saw that the growth of 4.6% of goods trade was propelled by two things.

[00:01:47]As I said, the first was front-loading of goods, but the second was trade in AI goods.

[00:01:55]42% of the growth of goods trade last year was driven by trade in AI goods. And this was something that we had not anticipated.

[00:02:09]So, that really overcame the impact of the tariffs and we had a very robust growth for goods trade last year.

[00:02:23]Well, first let me say one or two things. This year, 2026, we forecast 1.9% growth of global goods trade, merchandise trade, 1.9% growth.

[00:02:37]But that was based on average oil prices of $60 to $70 a barrel. We have since made two more forecasts. If oil prices increase to about $90 a barrel average for the year, then we forecast that global trade growth will fall by 0.5 percentage points from 1.9 to 1.4%.

[00:03:04]If oil prices further increase to an average of $110 a barrel for the rest of the year, then it's going to be even worse. Global goods trade growth will fall to 0.7%.

[00:03:17]Okay?

[00:03:18]So, [clears throat] this is So, we have made a couple of scenarios on the energy price. So, we think that the higher the energy price goes to these levels, the more that it it will impact the growth.

[00:03:34]Similarly, also for services services trade, uh we are also forecasting 4.8% Okay, this for 2026 this year. But if we have uh oil prices that at the levels we're talking about, it could fall at 110 uh, dollars per barrel, services trade growth will fall to about 4%. Okay?

[00:04:05]So, uh, we are seeing that downside of this conflict of higher energy prices, and that is why for countries like Japan that depends so much on the Strait of Hormuz for a lot of its oil, it will have a very, uh, severe impact if the oil price keeps rising.

[00:04:30]So, what Japan, I think, is thinking in the right fashion uh, is trying to diversify its supply. That's the only thing you can do. It's trying to buy more from the US. US is a big supplier of oil, and they're trying to buy oil and gas.

[00:04:47]Latin America, you have Brazil, the ninth largest oil producer in the world, you can also source. You have Guyana, you know, that now has huge oil reserves.

[00:05:05]But, we did not agree on the multilateral e-commerce moratorium.

[00:05:11]Okay, we have a multilateral moratorium on not charging customs duties on electronic trans. Members did not agree on that, which was disappointing.

[00:05:23]One successful thing, another successful thing, because I think it was a success to agree on re- on reforms for the organization. This was the main thing we went there to do. And ministers were able to do that. The second thing that was good was the launch of the e-commerce agreement. And Japan was a co-convener of that agreement with Australia and Singapore. So, Japan played a very important role. 66 members are members of that plurilateral agreement on e-commerce.

[00:05:56]And that is the new way of doing business at the WTO.

[00:06:00]Plurilaterals should be alongside multilateral agreements. Both can work side by side because [clears throat] there will be some things for which you need multilateral agreements.

[00:06:14]If you have global public goods where no one country If you have a pandemic, no one country can solve it. You may need an agreement on health issues in order to deliver. If you have climate change issues, no one country can solve it.

[00:06:29]That's global public So, you will still need multilateral rules. But, having the e-commerce as a plurilateral is the wave of the future, and I think it's a good thing that we were able to deliver the first set of rules to govern e-commerce.

[00:06:54]Well, look, we we continue to work in Geneva. It's a very good question. And we are not there yet at the at the General Council meeting.

[00:07:06]The General Council Chair, Ambassador Clare Kelly of New Zealand, decided that we would continue work until such a time as we secure this. So, we are working very hard. We have June, we have July. The next General Council meeting is in July. We don't want to set timelines, but it's going reasonably well. We have also started work on the reforms. Members have agreed that they should start bringing proposals on the various reform tracks.

[00:07:37]So, we don't want to set any timeline, you know?

[00:07:40]I think it is not wise. I think we should just allow members to do their work and when but but we are actively working on it. That I can assure you.

[00:07:50]When we get the the results, we will let you know.

[00:08:04]Well, this issue of uh decision-making is one of the first planks of reform.

[00:08:11]Members want to work at this to reform the approach. So, consensus, nobody is questioning consensus.

[00:08:20]Consensus is a very valued thing at the WTO because it means the smallest member has as much power as the largest. But it is the way it is practiced.

[00:08:30]There are other organizations that also have a consensus system, but consensus does not mean unanimity.

[00:08:38]At the WTO, consensus is practiced as unanimity, meaning every member must agree. More flexible so that maybe those who agree could move forward with a plurilateral, leaving room for those who don't who are not yet ready to join later. So, we see that for the future, plurilaterals will certainly be a very important instrument within the WTO. We already have some plurilaterals. We already have them. The WTO its rulebook has room. So, we see for the future that you can have more plurilaterals like the e-commerce and this could be a way of doing business alongside multilaterals.

[00:09:25]Well, uh for my second term, um we already, I think, are seeing some of those goals materialize. I would like to see um a reform of WTO rules. Bring them bring in them up to 21st century uh fitness.

[00:09:50]And you know, to for the rules to be fit for the 21st century. I would like to see new rules.

[00:09:57]And we already see one in the e-commerce plurilateral.

[00:10:00]>> Uh-huh. So, some of them may come through plurilateral. We also have another plurilateral agreement called I also want us to see uh the organization to look at the new opportunities Mhm. in services trade, green trade, and digital trade. And to say what new agreements do we need to take advantage of this trade?

[00:10:24]I want to see a better integration of developing countries within the multilateral trading system. Having them add more value to their products and get a greater share of world trade.

[00:10:39]And for Japan, Japan has been a very responsible member of the WTO and of the multilateral trading system. I'm quite proud of them. They have been great supporters. I want them one to continue their support for the system, but also to be very active in helping to reform it because we need those reforms. So, Japan should play an active role. Japan is a important middle power and an important trading nation. It should be able to bring the other middle powers together with Japan to say, "Let us work together to support the reforms." That's what we want Japan to serve as a leader to bring other middle powers to support the reform. So, those are the main things we are seeking. And of course, we want Japan to also support developing countries so that they can become the markets of the future. They are the markets of the future. And Japan must invest in them in order to benefit from those markets.