ETF Flows Signal Big Shift: Investors Move to Safety

本站添加: 2026-05-13

[00:00:00]And joining us now here in our Chicago headquarters is Jillian Delignor, the head of retail and wealth strategy at NASDAQ indexes. Jillian, great to have you back with us. Now, every time that you're here, we talk about this rise of active ETFs and we've had several guests on talking about how they're seeing their products rise in active management and now they're making up more than half of the launches that we're seeing. When did active truly go mainstream? because I know we've been talking about it a bit because you cover the trends, but I'm talking about it more and more now with our guests.

[00:00:30]>> Absolutely. It's interesting. I I say I was going to say, dare I say mainstream?

[00:00:33]I think we do say mainstream. So, so far this year, there's been over 800 launches, 56 of them, to your point, over 50% have been active. March, if you look at flows in March, so we've seen about 620 billion in flows yearto date across the industry. 90% of March flows were active. So, I think it's a couple things that we're seeing. That was a shifty thing about what's happening geopolitically in March. There was a lot of uncertainty. We saw a lot of shifting into fixed income and income. So I think that's driving a lot of what we're seeing by way of development, by way of flows. Not saying that we're not seeing traditional active managers make way here. You have the likes of Capital Group, JP Morgan, Dimensional, they're all there and they're present, but you're seeing when you see these big shifts into things like fixed income and income, those really do continue to drive a lot of the flows that we're seeing. Um but I really think it's been over the last year, two years where we've seen more of this start to really take hold by minds of all investors. Um not just financial adviserss who knew those traditional active managers, but all investors are really gravitating towards these tools.

[00:01:31]>> And with active capturing such a large share of flows, particularly in March, do you view that as more of a structural shift or is that potentially more tied just to this current macro backdrop that we have right now?

[00:01:43]>> I think March was a bit of a I think it was a lot tied to the macro backdrop. We saw a lot of interesting things happen in March by way of flows. Um active being one of them because again a lot of these a lot of the what you see by way of active ETFs come in the form of fixed income. They were some of the first active ETFs were fixed income ETFs and investors have shown a preference for active and fixed income. Um so you definitely see a tie there. I think it is definitely indicative of a broader trend but March I feel like was more tied that 90% number was more tied to to the backdrop >> and with most of the flows being driven by fixed income or these income oriented strategies what does that tell you about sentiment right now >> yeah it's interesting so we saw over the course of the first quarter you know sort of January February were decent right March we really tanked out April has been a complete reversal so if we were to take it through the lens of um something like the NASDAQ 100 for example you are seeing like over the the course of the first quarter something like a QQQ um you're seeing investors flee right in mass there were significant outflows in uh in March in particular bit of a reversal in April still on the negative for the year um the NASDAQ 100 really showing itself as able to feed the appetite of investors regardless of the structure so you see something like the cues and massive outflows showing itself as a trading vehicle and really representing sentiment negative and positive in the market and then you have something like QQQM which is showing itself as something that sits more at the core of portfolios. So the NASDAQ 100 being an inflows, right? Three billion in the first quarter, three billion in April.

[00:03:14]We're really seeing the NASDAQ 100 being able to serve all sorts of investors and making its way into the core of portfolios uh in really significant ways. And that's not even to say you have futures, options, uh index funds, you name it. So this real ecosystem starting to develop and being able to show sentiment across the market. And so as you look at that, does that signal to you, because I know you follow the trends so very carefully here, that investors are still very committed to the NASDAQ 100, they're just expressing it differently now.

[00:03:43]>> So I think they're very committed to the NASDAQ 100 and because of the different ways you can access it. Again, ETFs aside, futures, options, index funds, separate accounts. Um, we're starting to see investors look at the NASDAQ 100 as a true core to their portfolio. So yes, we're seeing sentiment expressed by large institutional investors, right?

[00:03:59]looking at the liquidity of something like a QQQ. Um, and you see that with other large equity indexes as well, right? It really is a capital markets vehicle at this point. But you're really starting to see anecdotally and then of course in the numbers, you're seeing investors look at the NASDAQ 100 at a core of a portfolio. And sticking with it, looking at something like the three billion in in the first quarter and three billion in April in inflows in the face of such volatility really starts to show us that it's sitting at that core of a portfolio. And we're also seeing in the notes that you sent over a huge growth in options-based ETFs that are tied to the NASDAQ 100. And I'd love to get your thoughts on what's driving that. I had a guest on the other day on on Trading 360 who said the income is back in fixed income and they are starting to see a lot of movement not just into ETFs but also these options based ETFs. and so is what's driving that and if you feel differently his argument was it's about income generation but then I had a guest on yesterday from convex saying that it was really about taking advantage of the volatility that we have right now >> yes yes and yes so the interesting thing about the NASDAQ 100 and I will quickly get over my skis talking options I have other folks on my team that are well more suited however I can tell you about the the the observations that we have there that I do believe are leading to um the preference if you will if I may be so bold for for the NASDAQ 100 link strategies um not exclusively but primarily um so across our suite within NASDAQ indexes we have about $9 billion linked to NASDAQ 100 um across the options space suite um and what we see is that because the NASDAQ 100 inherently has a higher volatility than some of the other US equity indexes that these products are linked to that will get you a higher premium and therefore higher income so investors are privy to that and so you are seeing a preference for those types of strategies with the NASDAQ 100 and we're seeing significant flows we've talked about it a ton, but something like a QQQI, I feel like every time I sit down with you, it's raised multiple more billions. And in fact, it has 12 billion in two years. Um, and others certainly continuing to keep up pace, but investors have seen that juicier premium that they can get off the NASDAQ 100, and it's leading to flows.

[00:05:59]>> And what does that tell you about how investors are thinking about risk right now?

[00:06:03]>> So, I think many investors are still very risk averse given what we're seeing as a backdrop, particularly in March.

[00:06:08]Yes, there was a reversal in April, but there's still a lot of uncertainty um going on in the markets. What's interesting though is I think the way that they're looking at these strategies is a way to capture some upside of markets but also clip a very nice coupon. And so they've been able to make their way in some cases into the cores of portfolios as well as way to get that equity exposure while also getting a nice stream of income.

[00:06:31]>> And we always talk about themes too whenever you're here and and crypto is often one in a lot of these hype trades and these you know the the top narrative theme or the story driven theme. Are we still seeing that type of investment style sort of leading the way or we are we moving back to fundamentals?

[00:06:47]>> I think it's the latter. Um, so it used to be thematics as the story, right? I believe in the story. I'm going to invest in the story. I think investors, all types of investors, institutions, advisors, retail, they are looking more at fundamentals. It's uh take example sort of AI enablers as we call them. So you've got semiconductors, power grids, infrastructure. People are looking for actual earnings. And so you're seeing things like um grid for example. It's the um the first trust uh NASDAQ clean edge smart grid infrastructure strategy or ETF. It's seen over $3 billion in inflows not because of the story because of the earnings. Right? So investors are really getting privy to that and they're not just looking for a fun story to invest in. They're actually looking for earnings to back that up.

[00:07:30]>> This was somehow the first interview I've done and I couldn't even quantify how long where we didn't say AI. So [laughter] next time we'll talk about AI. But Jillian, it has been great to have you with us. Thank you for bringing the trends for us to take a look at in the ETF space. Always appreciate it.

[00:07:43]Jillian Delignore from NAS