El Nino, Indian Ocean Dipole increase risk of haze in Singapore from Jun to Oct: Met Service

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[00:00:00]Hotter and lasting longer. That's the forecast for the dry season this year.

[00:00:05]The Meteorological Service Singapore warning of a possible double whammy of climate phenomena from June.

[00:00:12]The agency says there is an eight in 10 chance of El Nino occurring this year pointing to warning signs such as water at higher temperatures than usual building up beneath the ocean surface in the eastern tropical Pacific. El Nino is likely to develop in June to July and may become stronger towards September.

[00:00:32]For Singapore, this often means hotter temperatures or higher temperatures and less rainfall.

[00:00:37]From July to August, a positive Indian Ocean dipole is predicted to develop.

[00:00:43]Cooler surface waters in eastern Indian Ocean lead to fewer clouds forming and less rainfall over parts of Southeast Asia including Singapore.

[00:00:53]A hotter dry weather from both climate patterns raising the risk of fires and haze in Singapore. The Met Service says in a 1997 1997 Singapore's driest year on record saw the same conditions. It warns the dry season could last until October with some experts going further and suggesting into February.

[00:01:15]>> Less rainfall will give us the year the the chance that the pollutants will stay in the air longer time and also good for the long-term the long-range transport.

[00:01:24]And without the rainfall, there's a less chance that the pollutant in the air can be removed by a rainfall. So, this is from the climate perspective.

[00:01:35]>> And Professor Steven Yim himself joins us in the studio. He's the founding director of the center for climate change and environmental health at Nanyang Technological University. He's also professor at the Asian School of the Environment and the Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine. Thank you so much for coming in this evening, Professor Yim.

[00:01:54]That quick read we did before we heard from you in that sound bite.

[00:01:58]A lot of it is based on modeling, predictive modeling. So, when you say there's an eight in 10 chance of something happening, layman like myself will say, "Well, I want certainty."

[00:02:09]Could you explain what you mean when you say this is likely? How do you make your predictions for predictions like these?

[00:02:17]>> So, now there are different kind of climate projection using the model simulations. There will be the uncertainty of different kind of models.

[00:02:26]But what we find now is a current projection quite consistently saying that over 80% of the chance that the the El Niño would like occur. At the same time in the Indian Ocean part that we also see the trend that with the cooler water surface water temperature that would drive us to have a positive phase of Indian Ocean Dipole.

[00:02:50]Both of them with El Niño and positive phase of Indian Ocean Dipole will give our region warmer and drier condition.

[00:02:58]>> Is this the worst-case scenario or a median scenario when you predict these things?

[00:03:04]>> Mhm. So far the current the climate projection also find that the the El Niño will be developed a very strong intensity.

[00:03:12]So, the last one that we experienced such kind of condition of the combination between El Niño and the positive phase of Indian Ocean Dipole will be good example will be 1997. Which give us a very dry and the warm condition. So, in terms of rainfall reduction is around 53% which is a very substantial compared with the long-term mean.

[00:03:37]>> So, in other words, you are able to make these projections because the conditions mirror those of 1997.

[00:03:44]>> It's because of that we are not only using the the model projection only, but also see the trend of the surface water in the Pacific Ocean and also Indian Ocean to see how would the trend to develop this kind of extremely climate variability condition. So, both the observations and also model simulations would drive us to have this kind of conclusion in the trend over 80% this kind of condition would happen.

[00:04:12]>> All right, just before we came to you, there was a sound bite of yourself talking about haze for Singaporeans. It's a perennial concern.

[00:04:20]>> Mhm.

[00:04:22]>> I think even someone like me would would think you know, hotter, drier weather, we're more likely to have fires and that's more likely to directly cause some kind of haze, but it is beyond just hotter, drier weather and forest fires. What other links do we look at when we say haze could worsen because of these weather predictions that you are making?

[00:04:44]>> Mhm. So, let me let me describe the two very important factor to drive to have a transboundary haze condition would be first, the favorable climate condition.

[00:04:55]As we experienced in the past different cases, 1997, 2015, 2023, we come across a drier and warmer condition with less cloud the formation such that we have less rainfall. So, pollutant can accumulate longer time in the air such that would be good for the long-term transport.

[00:05:16]Second one is the emission because in the dry condition those are the peat land or vegetation the fires would be most likely to happen because a dry condition, warmer condition would trigger this kind of the fire hotspot to appear.

[00:05:32]At the same time, we have a biomass burning activities also once the fire starts, that could spread very quickly because of the dry condition. So, if now look at to the two factors, now one is 80% a chance will happen. Now, we see how you see a second factor will will play around.

[00:05:51]>> All right.

[00:05:53]What what can we do given that these various these variabilities suggest that this is a is a high likelihood of this happening. Can we do things in good time in advance?

[00:06:05]>> Okay. From the individual point of view, so we have three recommendation. The first one is we should develop a routine that we check the weather and air quality before we plan our activities, which is a part >> Every day?

[00:06:19]>> Uh every day I would say, because that would be good especially for the vulnerable population. For example, patients with the preconditions of respiratory disease like asthma, COPD, that would be good to check the weather condition like the temperature level as well as the air quality condition. So if you find the condition may not be good for your health status, so better that you can rearrange or plan your activities accordingly and try not to have any outdoor activities as intensive as uh usual. So that would protect your health. Second one is if you think that you you need to uh like more protection, so better you have the air purifier at the workplace and also at your home if possible. But choosing the air purifier is also the tricky part because so usually we recommend to have the air purifier with the HEPA filter, which is a very effective like filter to for us to filter our particles.

[00:07:19]>> on the box it would say we've got the safety sensor.

[00:07:21]>> Correct. And at the same time we have to pay attention to the pumping volume, the rate. If your house is a really big, your room is a bigger, if your air purifier is I have a relatively lower volume rate a pumping rate, so that will be the removal rate is not as fast as the the particle are trying to get it from outside to inside indoor environment. So that is that you have to choose the correct air purifier. The last one is you should prepare enough filter enough mask which is not the surgical mask that we usually see in the coffee because that is not effective to filter out particles. So the more effective type should be the N95 which is a very effective to remove the particles during the haze.

[00:08:07]>> So in other words we should be stocking up on these all knowing what Singaporeans are like they will run out and will be rushing out fighting each other for masks and air purifiers.

[00:08:15]>> I think it's a depends on the conditions majority especially for like population or the patients with the pre-condition.

[00:08:23]So this is also good for them to manage their exposures every day not only during the haze.

[00:08:28]>> precautions in good time thanks for the warnings from agencies like yours.

[00:08:31]Thanks a lot Professor Steven from NTU.

[00:08:34]Thank you for coming in this evening.

[00:08:35]>> Thank you.