The Thucydides Trap describes the historical pattern where an emerging power threatens to displace an established power, making war the most likely outcome. In the current US-China context, this manifests through strategic competition, including drone warfare in Ukraine, where Russia's air defense interception rates dropped from 50% to under 30% after leadership changes, and the US faces declining global reputation despite economic indicators like GDP and stock markets. The international system's anarchic nature, lacking a central authority, forces states to maximize their power and spheres of influence, creating inherent conflict between great powers regardless of their intentions.
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Massive Strikes - Ukraine War Evolves | US-China - Strategic Blindness & Political DelusionAdded:
Good day, legends. I hope you are having a fantastic day. And so far, you're having a brilliant week. No, I'm not dead. I know every time I go dark, people assume the worst due to my brain tumor or some people out there that may not like me, some of which state backed.
But no, I've just been taking some time off to basically explore within myself.
I feel like this year, more so than ever, just so much I've experienced, I've seen that has just challenged my concrete cement, hardened prejudices in my head, and make me just rethink everything about my life, my world, things I've done, things I haven't done, things I've said, things I haven't said.
And that's difficult to come to if you've had something cemented in your brain for 30 years and then you're going, "Hey, it may be the inverse of such that's difficult." So, I'm just nothing's wrong per se. nothing's happened and I am actually working with a professional uh to to work through these to wade into my brain to to try to seek some clarity uh on this as well.
So, thank you for dealing with me over the past month. I think I've only made a couple of videos after making one two videos a day for years. So, today we're going to talk about two things. It's going to be just a relaxed chat. We're going to talk about drones and strikes.
We're going to look at strikes from Ukrainian drones into Russia and then Russian drones into Ukraine as we have seen a record set and as well with this a large amount of ballistic and cruise missiles and a change at the top of the Russian air force and how that may affect ground operations. So we'll talk about that and overall what we are seeing uh the war in Ukraine and then of course Trump and Xi they are in China.
Well G's always in China but Trump is on a two-day trip to China. Now we'll be doing a specific video breakdown on this but bear with me that will come. We'll just look over some bits uh in that today. I also need to send a huge thank to Brendan and Steve. Uh they have sent me a couple of books through my PO box and actually written me uh some letters and some information and stuff to go with them. What means a lot. So I know there was more than this uh from Steve, but thank you uh very much as well. You know that I love reading. If there's anything you'd like me to read, I guess down below uh is the link to that. So, a lot to go over. Uh, and a lot and not that much has been happening in my life.
I've been reading, not doing as much writing as I should, and just spending a lot of time focusing on myself, you know, trying to spend a bit of time with me, not listening to music, not watching YouTube, not reading, just me. I think that's important as I'm trying to just rethink so much of my life. So, enough of that. Let's get into the video. We'll start with Ukraine, then we'll move on uh to China, America, the great power tension that we see at the moment. So, we've seen this and this is basically going on as I've gone live. So, we're not going to talk about it too much today, but what we are seeing is Ukraine is having a lot more strikes with long range drones, both what I'd call strategic level and tactical level. So, this is the Ryazan oil refinery in Russia. Now, this has just been absolutely lily phillips over the past couple of months. Just strike after strike after strike. And of course, this has a massive export capacity limits.
And we know oil around the world at the moment. Well, there's a reason why it is high. This is just a very small part of that. It's mainly to do with the US and their actions. What has then led to restrictions on the straight of it? It is not closed. It's restricted. You have to pay to move through. but also then Ukraine's tactical level strikes primarily down in Crimea, long range FPVs against radars and other systems.
Now, I see a lot of NAFO accounts today who have the track record of predictions of well worse than if I put screen doors on a submarine. But they are saying that Crimea has now been cut off, although there's a bridge that you can still pass, but that it is the beginning of the collapse. Again, we will wait and see.
Now, let's have a look at this attack overnight and over a 24-hour period, I should say. That is the largest drone attack we have seen in this war and therefore actually in the world. AMK mapping has said following the appointment of a new commander of the Russian air force, the interception rate of Russian missiles drops from 50% to less than 30%. Now, his numbers here, I can't confirm that. But what I do know is, of course, there's incentive to fudge the numbers about what the interception rate actually is. You'll see high 90% today from official accounts. I always question that. And AMK has been incredibly reliable when it comes to strategic level strikes. This is the lack of fighter aircraft in the air and as well that the command has chosen new routes for those missiles to fly along. So of course you're doing the same routes well you're going to have a higher interception rate. One of the p bits I think AMK's missed in here is the lack of interceptors too going to Ukraine. We know US, Israel, Gulf, they used a incredible amount of interceptor missiles in the ongoing war in Iran. And that itself has actually questioned the ability for the US or other states to defend themselves. And Ukraine is really near the bottom of priority for the US to deliver more missiles to. And that will have a huge effect on missile systems, particularly the Patriot system. Even down to Ukrainian drone operators being taken out of Ukraine into the Gulf. Remember, prior attack, Russian cruise missiles were practically the same routes every single attack. So we need to look at the missiles. Now, of course, some of this is over multiple attacks. We had a 16-hour attack window at one point, but in the attack last night, we had 64 missiles, 7 670 drones, but between 8:00 a.m. and uh sorry, Tuesday to 8:00 a.m. Wednesday, what we have seen is almost 1,500. They're saying 1428 here.
That was from the K of Independent, but I've seen numbers larger of that's how many was fired in that period. And of course that's a huge amount. Now what Mr. AMK says in this is that at time of writing so for these numbers above it was 13 of the 32 three of the 20 uh sorry three of the seven uh three of the 22 uh missiles. Kinszal he hasn't said here but I believe none of those were then hit in this. What we have seen is the number that I've seen. Some say five, some are saying 16 people killed.
Difficult to get an idea on. Of course, any death like this is a bloody horrible tragedy. And we've seen international global condemnation of these strikes.
But we do need to add this perspective also that what we've seen is a thousand drones 60 missiles and that five to 16 people killed. Now none of them should have been killed but we see the global international outcry when we see this and of course what many people are pointing to is the conditional empathy the hierarchy that people apply when there are strikes.
Many world leaders have made comments about this, of which very, very few of them made any comment about 164 school girls hit by an American Tomahawk missile. Now, you may say it's apples and oranges. You may say that's what aboutism, but what I'm saying is I think a majority of the world is sick to death of this conditional application of empathy or of what is human suffering.
And the hypocrisy that goes with it, I think, is highly telling.
Now we Oh, sorry. We have covered this.
Let's look then at what fighter bomber has said. I missed a pardon in that.
Sorry. I'm not used to this. This first bit, the new commander. This is this Colonel General Alexander Chico. Now, he started his career in the Russian army.
He was then the Eastern Forces Command at the beginning of the war in Ukraine.
He was in command in Syria on and off over the best part of a decade. But it's an army background. I think that could be interesting because we have seen it's improved over the war but a disconnect between aviation working with ground units potentially given his background.
We may see an increase in the ability to do so. So this is from fighter bomber.
I've copied this just into a document so it's easy uh to view otherwise it would be on telegram. Judging by the numbers and facts, 15 to,800 drones were launched in one day, which is an absolute record for the launch. This was nonstop. The shows were prepared a new drone system to the point where they can physically capable of launching such a large number of drones. So regardless of hits, whatever, that they can actually still get that many out into the air.
It's hard to say whether large number of drones was result of a cumulative effect for 3 days of the ceasefire or whether we were able to increase volumes. Again, I'd say it's a bit of column A, a bit of column B. It's probably something that is a cumulative effect, but also we know the manufacturing of these has increased massively over the past years. What I'd like is I'd like some people that have been saying if and when America attacks Iran, Russia will not be able to fire a single drone into Ukraine. They said that at 12-day war said it again to justify that attack.
What we know is that is not the case.
They bought the rights to produce that system.
The total number of launch crews and ballistic missiles hasn't significantly increased, but most likely, not because we're being stingier, there's not enough because 2,000 drones with surplus has covered all of the planned targets. So, what he's saying is the missiles haven't increased, but if we can increase the amount of drones, we can decrease the amount of missiles. Of course, missiles, ballistic crews are significantly more expensive. And what I'll say to that is this is what we are seeing in war. The Shaheds from Iran attack some incredibly important facilities uh through the Gulf. And that this design, the Shahed Garani design, which you can trace back to Israel, you can trace it to German, you can trace it to here to here. What I'll say is that design has absolutely proven itself. And the Ministry of Defense or the Department of War has had this American innovation with that drone there.
Okay. Okay. Um yes we need to Russia should post a TU160 and write Soviet innovation next to a B1B. Yes. Uh we need to understand both frontline aviation and long-range artillery they're working as well as small caliber drones and this is what my comment was before with this Colonel Chico the army background will we see the use of air and land more effectively as we come into the real fighting season it's hard to say about the effectiveness of the strike uh but I think it's much better than when we launched 150 to 200. So is it better to fire a thousand over a day or a few hundred in the day overwhelm the uh air defense but also you may not have subsequent days. So is it better to fire a thousand have a few days of none or a couple of hundred per day on and on and on? Pros and cons in both. He says this is preparation for the summer campaign. Now Russia has had a reasonably slow to the start of the year not as slow as summer looking at. We'll look at that in a second. And what we'll see of the capacity is really what happens in summer. Will there be a summer offensive campaign? I've spoken to a few people behind the scenes. Some of them say yes. And that could actually be much larger than years prior. So, we've said it's slow start. Could there be something? Well, let's look at a few numbers. And this gives us an idea. And again, the way you present data says more about the data itself. So I'm just going to show you as much as possible.
So let's look 2425. This is the net terrain, the occupied terrain in Ukraine. So a minus is Ukraine losing ground. Therefore Russian advancement.
But what this doesn't show is the gross because if Ukraine makes some, Russia makes some, that's minus off because it's the occupied terrain. But we can see that of course April we're talking you know let's if we go in between these numbers let's just say 180 in here you know it's very similar to 2025 it's more than 2024 so by these numbers you can see it's still moving but yeah it is moving more slowly than many people thought especially when we go back to February where we saw of course Ukraine take advantage of the Starlink down with offensive there but then what's important important. So we look at this and say it was 138 compared to maybe 186 last year but last year there was no Ukrainian gain in this month. This is where we need to look at the gross number is Russia still made 336 km in the month of April. It was so much lower on the net because Ukraine also gained 149. So it's important to say there's still momentum in these areas. So that's important as well. The figures which really interest me is the losses of vehicles more so than the kilometer squares due to how attritional warfare works. And this is what I've tried to add onto this. The red both Czech and solid is either Russian tanks or self-propelled guns. The in the blue is Ukraine tanks and SPGs to the kilometers gained. You can see an increase in losses for Ukraine as the territory is increasing still for the Russians and their losses are decreasing due to tactics, it's due to strategy, it's due to drones. It's due to much. But we do need to keep an eye on this. I think that is a far better way of showing the situation, the state of the war than maybe a red line moving.
Okay, let's have a look at China and the US and look at what Trump has said. Look at what some pieces in here that I think are obficated by the American uh what's the the the hubris of the American leaders, the the egodriven and they grew up in a far different America to what America is now. And this is always the problem when you've got leaders of such age or such wealth who were born into that too is they live in a different state of which we do. I grew up in a different state significantly than a 20-year-old. Sign. I don't think there's ever been a decadel long period, a 10year period that has been different from a 20-year-old now to a 30-year-old now. And a 10year-old is probably even more massive than that 20 to 10 again.
So let's look at this. Trump has truth.
When President Xi very elegantly referred to the US as perhaps being a declining nation, he was referring to the tremendous damage we suffered during the four years of sleepy Joe Biden, the Biden administration. Again, he's saying this is what he's referring to rather than, well, what was he actually referring to? Is this the way you took it? On that score, he was 100% correct.
Our country suffered immeasurably with open borders, high taxes, transgender for everybody, men and women support, DEI, horrible trade deals, rampid crime, and so much more.
I'll comment on these in a sec.
President Xi was not referring to the incredible rise that the US has displayed to the world during 16 spectacular months of the Trump administration, which includes all-time high stock markets, 401ks, military victory in Venezuela, military decimation of Iran, strongest military on Earth by far, economic powerhouse.
Now, what I'll say is you might think that this transgender DEI whatever was is [ __ ] and I with a lot of it I agree. But see how this is referring to people and this is referring to money says a lot about the kleptocratic oligarch nature of which the US in my opinion is becoming. He says in the decimation of Iran that this is to be continued. Again I don't know where this is going to go. Strong military economic powerhouse with a record $18 trillion being invested in the US by others. Best US job market in history. Many people plus data would question that with more people working in the US right now than ever before ending countries destroying DEI and so many other things that would be impossible to readily list. In fact, President Xi congratulated me on on many tremendous successes in such a short period of time. Maybe tremendous successes going thank you for doing this. Two years ago, we're in fact a nation decline. on that. I fully agree she but now US is the hottest nation anywhere in the world and hopefully our relationship with China will be stronger and better than ever.
Okay, a lot to push back on that.
Firstly, this visit, it's the first visit by a US president to China in 9 years over two days. I'll do a video once this concludes trying to break down every little bit possible from different perspectives on trade, on tan, Taiwan.
But I think that's embarrassing. There hasn't been a leader here for nine years.
If I was a leader like this, a prime minister, a president, whatever, I'd expect like half my year to be different countries, especially if you got great power tension.
But let's look at this. It was a nation in decline. He thanked me for this. The Chinese they commonly call Trump nationbuilding comrade because they see that his actions on the international stage the reputation erosion of the US that this is building China's position in the global order position as a great power that that is building that far faster than their own actions decisions or interests.
Now Trump's obsessed and he ran on this and back in 2016 it worked because everyone was so over it. Peak woke I call it 1617 those sort of years maybe 15 16 17 the hump's over. But his obsession with this anti-woke politics and therefore measurement of the nation by GDP or all-time stock market highs is how you can see looking at it through a people lens probably with suicidal empathy of administrations gone bias but then just looking at figures and hydrog market etc that it can actually be the inverse for how a average person is feeling about estate. Has the American average American earning 45 grand a year, maybe less than that? Has their quality of life improved? Has America from the remainder of the world optically have they gone America's higher than it was?
Americans decline in my eyes is nothing to do with numbers on a chart. Those numbers are domestic affairs. It's trade.
America's decline.
Where this is critical, where it's crossed event horizons is been how the world, every single country on the earth views America from its closest allies, Australia, Canada, apparently the other closest ally, which is there's no data to show if you want to go data, but the West is how they now view America. They see it very different and how it's toppled very quickly from being global leader, the bastion of freedom, the bastion of values, etc., which I know many nations go, "What are you guys on about?" But how now it's seen as corrupt and a compromised bully, but who cares? We've got all these weapons, we've got all this money, who cares? Well, as Mr. Henry Kissinger would say is never underestimate the most important thing in international affairs particularly as wanting to be the world leader is your reputation this year particularly has been in my opinion the most embarrassing time for the US in history and therefore that decline that immeasurable decline you could measure jobs you can measure GDP what you can't measure is how people view your state and that has been has been s has suffered so much it's irreparable it'll take a generation it's exposed that no it is it's destabilizing to many countries it's irresponsible with military use even money it's corrupt the amount of insider trading is insane the amount of money or it's got the oligarch wealth to overall wealth so fewer amount of people own more than Russia's oligarch class. It's obviously compromised as hell as well.
Working not in its own interest. What are some examples? Well, I think Epstein did more damage to the US on the global stage than anything else and will continue through. The majority of the world, if you were to ask the majority, billions and billions of people say, and it's not even taboo to say, oh, you you are you are protecting, hiding, and you're complicit in the world word starting with a P and ending in Ilia, insider trading. It's all everywhere.
Hundreds of millions of dollars and then a tweet and then a bomb. relationship with Israel, what's happened in Iran, what's happening in Lebanon, AI and Palanteer spread across the tariff war launched against states of which had gone to war with you generation after generation.
And this has occurred to such a degree that liberal democracies like Canada, like Spain, like Germany that they have moved away from America and and and increasing ties with China. With China.
Okay.
Why do you think they call him the nation building comrade? America's reputation has been destroyed for a very long time. And China's has increased to such a degree, I believe that would even shock Beijing. I think that China's going h what do people think about us?
People see that we're the great stabilizing force or the grown up on the international stage. I think that thanks for that and the way people view America and China now that has absolutely inverted in the west to an unbelievable degree. I don't have the chart in front of me. the ABC which is the state uh funded channel in Australia they did a poll the other day which you know any poll like that's going to be skewed but it had who's the biggest threat to global stability and Trump was the first by a massive margin followed by Putin other was higher and then gee if my memory serves me correctly talking about then this we see the white house Joe Kent who's been on the podcast sort of gorounds, you know, the Erica Kirk special has said both countries agreed that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon from the White House. And Kent says, "Well, China fully supports America getting sucked into another yet resource consuming endeavor in the Middle East." And yes, when you're looking at great powers like this, they'll have no problem with you wearing yourself out here. China has a saying that goes back further than bloody anything we have here of and it doesn't translate perfectly but let's foreigners subdue foreigners or many people put it more simply let barbarians fight barbarians if you want to wear these guys out you want to wear these guys out go for it and that's how I see because it increases your relative power that's exactly how I see that China sees the war in Ukraine is well Russia is still a great power on our border so it's weakened here, but it's weakening Europe as well. That's fine by us. We won't let Russia collapse cuz we don't want a rump nuclear state in our border, but we have no problem with these weakening each other.
It's the same playbook that we had in Ukraine as well is the West would rather suck Russia into a resourceheavy attritional war than have an early negotiated outcome. this where I've said the strategy towards Ukraine I believe was evil because they went Ukraine's not going to win this back militarily but we can enforce pain on Russia reduce their global power and their power in Europe hasn't worked but well hasn't worked long term it may work short term but it hasn't worked long term at least at this point in time but the at the expense of Ukraine the expense of the future of generations of Ukrainians. And that's where I think if you actually take a pro- Ukrainian stance, you go, hey, just admitting hate and death and each other to just everything for the West ultimately trying to reduce Russia's power, your state may not exist. If this continues for years with the amount of loss, we did the same thing to the Soviet Union, funding the Mujahin to get them stuck in a resourceheavy war in Afghanistan.
Now, White House, I don't believe a single word coming out of the White House at all, but uh China's expressed interest in purchasing American oil to reduce China's dependence on the straight in the future. I think they'll be moving toward to try and buy more Russian before that, but we will see.
Opposition to militarization of the straight, what we know today is that China's ships can move through the straight of Muz. So again, there's a lot going on. There's a lot going to be said. It's going to take a while to actually break down exactly what has happened and actions will speak louder than the words. Now Xi sitting with Trump, he noted the world has reached a new crossroad, whether China and the US can transcend the so so-called theities trap and forge a new paradigm for engagement between major powers. Whether we can work together to address address global challenges and bring greater stability to the world. Whether we can jointly create a brighter future for bilateral relations. These are questions of history, questions of the world and questions of the people. He also said they have common interests shared by China and the United States to outweigh the difference. So you have more in common than you do in difference. And this is all humans. meet someone from any corner of the globe, you'll have a significantly more in common down to your genetic makeup to your interests than your differences.
When the two sides cooperate, both benefit. They can confront each other, both suffer. And if America and China were to clash, the suffering would be extreme.
Now, the thidity and trap that he speaks of here, this is simple, but we're going to break it down a little bit further, is that when power grows, it threatens to displace another existing power, the likelihood of war increases to be the most likely outcome. When set to be replaced, one wants to rise, one wants to maintain, clash, or some would say is inevitable.
It's not inevitable, but it's highly likely. History shows this though most of this was pre-nuclear weapons deterrence.
It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made the war inevitable. So it was the rise the fear that the Spartans had made it inevitable clash. We'll talk about that more in a sec. Professor Mia Shima in his book the tragedy of great power politics sitting up here behind me written in 2001. He asked the question the final chapter after explaining offensive realism, the tragedy that is in anarch an anarchctic system. Can China rise peacefully? Now I think if he rewrote that book and looking through it through 2026 eyes in the current climate the questions wrong. It needs to be reversed. Not can China rise peacefully.
It's can America fall peacefully.
Especially given that America has a very short history, very short history without centuries of rise and fall and rebirth.
Can they come to an even or second position peacefully? That's more of the question rather than coming into number one. The way I see it is a state's desperation to maintain the status quo outweighs a state's aspiration to climb into the leading position.
If China does nothing, it'll end up there in time. Fertility is a big question, but that's a question hanging over every industrialized uh state at the moment. Okay? Every Western state bar Israel is then having problems with fertility. If they do nothing, they know they'll likely end up there. And what we are seeing is the US is feeling the pressure. They're feeling the squeeze and they're throwing [ __ ] at the wall. Whether it is tariffs, whether it's business, whether it's sacking people, whether it is bombing or stealing bombing Iran, cutting and closing, having the straight being closed or stealing the president of Venezuela to try and limit China's oil and they're showing through the wall to try and reduce this rise or slow it down even to banning technology, banning BYD, banning Huawei, etc. Now, there's other reasons for that. state security reasons for some of that too. But we see they're throwing [ __ ] at the wall trying to slow that rise down if they can and re increase that gap. My opinion that gap's not going to happen. Look at all the people that have predicted China's collapse over the past 30 years and how right they have all been. Sarcasm by the way. What I believe will then this whole thing will drive Trump to actually improve the relationship with Russia as a balance against China. That's how I see. I see that Russia doesn't have anywhere near the capacity to operate on the same uh stage as America and China, these hyperpowers, that it does have enough economic power, influence, resource, military to be able to flip the balance and that Russia is actually going to grow very important for for both America and China try and have some relation there. That's how I see that.
But I my thing is it's not just that you know when there's threatening existing that you might clash heads. I think you're more likely to clash head if you're the one coming down than the one coming up. So let's look at this and this is from someone who is a contributor to the channel. Uh I can't say who or where but Scandinavia as an officer great guy highly knowledgeable. He spokes about conflict in Sparta and Athens that me Sham is referring to when the coin the Thesidian trap was coined with the term was coined. It is true that theidities talked about tragedy of the conflict but this is my gripe with Marshime as I've talked to you about in the past.
Thusidities did not mean it the same way that Marsha does. The sicidities Oh my god, that's hard to say. The facidities trap that Mayor Sharma talks about is the tragedy of great power politics because international politics is inherently anarchic and lacks a central all power enforcer. The nation state is the highest power. Because of this, the states will want to be able to defend their own interest and also because in an arctic nature of international politics because no state can read each other's minds, all great powers will want to maximize their own spheres of influence. So this is overall mesh Sharma's offensive realism. What he says is there is no global enforce. There's no world police. The highest form is the state is the nation state.
So there's no one doing the rules. It's raw power politics. And states will raise into tat reason states they will do whatever actions are necessary to maintain the status quo or increase their power in the sphere of influence due to the lack of trust that isn't in the system. It's an anarchctic system.
Okay? There's no police to appeal to.
The UN's not going to do anything. Come on. So you need to increase your relative power. That's overall offensive realism. This will put great power at odds with each other which will inevitably lead to conflicts because the inherent lack of trust built into the system. So even if the great powers only want to defend their interests and secure peace, they will come into conflict with other great powers. Still on a globe, you're going to come into conflict at some point. Hence the tragedy of great power politics. Read the book. It's very very good. But the tragedy that the cidities referred to was the fact that the conflict was avoidable where more of the tragedy of what he was going on is that it is we're going this way in offensive only is that no saying no this was avoidable and he knew it. It happened not because it was inevitable but because of the arrogance and pride of the two powers leaders who refused to see each other's perspectives compromise.
So it was the pride, the ego that led to this not having a seeing from their eyes or having any compromise that led to those actions and has led to many others. And I've spoken with this gentleman about not seeing perspective or compromise in the war we have in Europe at the moment is the reason of the tragedy of the great power clash that we have there through a proxy and a great power. Okay. and will likely be the reason for many others. I think that's interesting. That's something if I ever have the opportunity to talk to Mayor Sharma about will be top of the list. So, Legends, thank you for spending some time with me. Again, thank you Brendan. I haven't read the book yet, but Brendan is also the author of this book. So, I'm very uh very excited.
And Steve, you've sent me a lot. Thank you as well. Legends, look after yourself. Have a fantastic day. And I'll speak to you in the next days, I'm sure.
Thank you. Bye-bye.
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