IRAN: MORE WAR SEEMS LIKELY /Professor Marandi

Added: 2026-05-06

[00:00:00]Earlier today, we had a show that was dedicated to the then breaking news this morning that the straight of Hormuz had been opened and that was according to the Iranian foreign minister and to the president of the United States. Both of them said the same thing and we were taking a look at what all that meant, what the people were saying underneath it, what else went along with it and then some of the ramifications of it.

[00:00:19]Then we came back later in the day and we had uh uh Larry Johnson who talked to us about what looking beyond the ceasefire time here. How could this be over? And there were several options we looked at. In the process of doing that second show, we thought we were going to have Professor Morandi from Thran University who was going to come and tell us the no kidding, here's what the Iranian side is saying. We we see what the American side is saying, but like is a hallmark of our channel here. We want to listen to everybody. It's important to listen to people. Then it's all much more important to look at what actually happens on the ground. We did that in the Russia Ukraine war. We're doing it here now. Then though, subsequent to that, we got Professor Miranda back and I was able to record a short interview with him, which I'm going to play in just a second. But as a setup to that, because there's been additional news coming from President Trump that we need to have and and when you hear what President Trump is saying now in light of what Professor Morandi says here in a minute, it's going to make a little bit more sense and maybe not in that great of a direction, at least a little bit more troubling. First of all, uh, two reporters. First of all, here we're going to have Ouija Jen. This is from CBS News. She says, "President Trump tells me, apparently she got on a phone call with him. No ground troops will be required to remove the enriched uranium from Iran." That was one of the things that President Trump said earlier today, that we're going to get all the so-called nuclear dust, as he calls it.

[00:01:39]Then he said, "Iran has agreed, this is important here, Iran has agreed to stop backing all proxy groups like Hezbollah and Hamas." And I asked if Iran had agreed to stop enriching uranium forever. He said, "They've agreed to everything." And you're like, "Hm, did they though? Did they really agree to everything?" That's not all. Then there was an additional Sorry, I'm on the wrong spot here. Then there was an additional uh comment by a different reporter from NewsNation, Kelly Meyer, uh who she also got on the phone with President Trump, so he's very chatty today, and she said, "I just spoke with President Trump from Las Vegas and asked him about the stream of true socials he has been sharing." I got right to the point. I asked President Trump if Iran agreed to stop enriching. Yes, he told me. They've agreed to stop enriching uranium. They agreed to everything. He told me, "Yes, are you surprised?" I asked, "Are you surprised?" He told me, "I'm not surprised by anything." And then he said, "See you later." And the call ended after that. So you have uh right there President Trump claiming that Iran has agreed to no enrichment that they've agreed to stop supporting their their proxies uh and that there's going to be that there's going to get rid of the reprocessing material and that they're going to open the straight of Hormuz and that he is going to keep our blockade in place. All those things have been said. Well, the Iranian side has said very much different things even in the official statements where they said that opening is contingent upon several things which we're going to get to in this interview here. But so with that as a setup and that's since the interview that we recorded just an hour or so ago here is pre professor Mandi and on the backside I'm going to share with you some of the ramifications of what this means and what the cost has been for America.

[00:03:20]President Trump announces that the straight of Hormuz is completely open and ready for business and full passage, but the naval blockade will remain in full force and effect as it pertains to Iran. Well, then a couple of hours later, a foreign ministry spokesman for Iran said that this is contingent upon the implementation of certain terms and conditions for ceasefire in Lebanon. And if the naval blockade continues, it will be considered a violation of the ceasefire and the passage through the straight of Hormuz will be closed. Where are we in this? Because it seems like those two statements are incompatible and they can't both be true.

[00:03:58]>> There's another thing that first comes to mind for me. And that is that what what we're seeing right now is basically that happened 10 days ago. The United States has finally forced Israelis to uh end the the slaughter and uh just today they uh murdered someone with a drone.

[00:04:19]So the ceasefire is not real. Just like in Gaza they continue to murder people.

[00:04:26]They're doing that in Lebanon. And that's the the the Israeli way. They just like killing people. And um they really take pleasure in this. uh but um what I think is happening is that this agreement that was signed 10 or that was agreed upon this this uh framework that was agreed upon 10 days ago ago is finally let's say being implemented the murder aside by the Israeli regime so the Iranians have agreed to open the straight of Hormos that's what the commit would the commitment was but the straight of Hormos is going to be open under certain conditions in other words the route that the ships have to play taken. Um they're going to have to get permission from the and also naval military uh ships uh will not be able to pass through.

[00:05:20]So I would assume that uh the number of ships that pass through are going to be limited for now.

[00:05:27]And the Iranians have said that uh that if the United States continues to place a siege on Iranian ports, they started the war. After all, all of this is because the United States started an unprovoked war. Now that they're putting their their uh they've imposed a siege on Iran's ports, I think that Iran will ultimately uh block the ships from exiting the straight of Hormos, but Iran will give the US some a bit of time to to change their stance. So, we'll have to see what the United States does. But what I think and this is just a personal take. I'm I'm not, as I said, I'm not in government. I'm not a government spokesman. I never was. Even when I went to Islamabad, I they just asked me to accompany them. I wasn't paid and I'm not a negotiator. So, this is a personal take.

[00:06:23]I think that there is a significant chance that Trump is of course making up all this stuff which he is that Iran agreed to this, Iran agreed to that which is all nonsense.

[00:06:34]So that perhaps that when the in 3 or 4 days he can say Iran promised all these things but now they're uh they've refused to abide by their commitments, non-existent commitments. I I you get what I'm saying? So >> he'll say he's saying that the Iranians have agreed to a b cde e and f >> and then in two three days he said they promised all these things which they didn't and but they're not doing them.

[00:07:04]So what happens next?

[00:07:08]A military assault.

[00:07:10]I think that the chances for a renewed US war against Iran are actually uh quite high. And I think that uh the language used by Trump and I may be completely wrong uh because Trump says lots of nonsense and u he's constantly contradicting himself. He's constantly making things up. He says something one hour and then something completely different the next hour. And I've said repeatedly to people, I do try never to interpret Trump because I can't. I just don't know what goes on in his head.

[00:07:49]But if one was to conclude that there is something behind these texts, it could just be another string of like crazy texts, crazy tweets or uh social truth social posts.

[00:08:08]But if it isn't, if they are, let's let's say for once we take him, say that he has some real strategy lying behind this, I would say that he's trying to make it seem like Iran agreed to something so that later on he can say that Iran refrained from carrying out what it promised to do, thus justifying another war.

[00:08:31]I think that's possible.

[00:08:32]>> Well, and in fact, >> there is a reason for him to bring all these troops. I mean, I don't think the weather is getting warm. We're heading towards summer. Uh the costs for the United States are enormous. Uh there's no fighting going on. The 12 the 40-day war was not a success for the United States. U so I think that uh this is something that should be taken very seriously >> and and let's just take a look at those.

[00:08:58]It's not just the the straight of Hormuz talking about you mentioned, you know, A B C and D. Well, let me look at at least two of those uh other enumerated things that President Trump has said. Uh and here he is on the true social says the USA will get all the nuclear dust created by our great B2 bombers. That's referring to the uh operation in 2025.

[00:09:18]No money will exchange hands in any way, shape, or form. This deal is in no way subject to Lebanon either. Uh and then he goes on a couple of little bit later this because he wanted he said a lot of things this morning but one of the other important ones let me see if I can roll up and find it. The the Iran has agreed to never close the straight of Hormuz again. It will never be used as a weapon. So my question to you is did Iran agree that they would never use the straight of hormones again and did they agree that they would give away all the dust and that they would get nothing in return for it?

[00:09:52]>> Yeah. All that is just made up stuff.

[00:09:55]And uh that is A, B, C, D, and maybe E and F too if we keep looking. So again, I'm not saying that there will definitely be war. But I think that if we are going to take these posts seriously, the fact that they're all fake, every single one of them, every single one of these that you just read are are fake. Uh then to me and I'm again I may be wrong it maybe just be it may be an ordinary day for Donald Trump where it just says nonsense but if I for once was going to say that he that well in this case let's take a look and see maybe there he could be serious I would say this is to prepare uh a justification for uh another murderous war and and so let's let's look at Because I mean when I saw those things I mean I I thought why would Iran ever agree to give away all those things for nothing? Why would they agree to open the straight of Hormuz from their side and allow it to stay blocked on the other side? That seemed irrational to me and illogical. But from what you're saying, at least as far as you've been told, none of those things are accurate.

[00:11:07]>> That's right. I mean, first of all, the the ceasefire in Lebanon is obviously all about Iran. Uh, the Iran was supposed to allow ships to pass through, more ships. I mean, it was never completely closed, but ships that are linked to Iran's adversaries, these regimes in the Persian Gulf who helped the United States wage war, they're not friends. They they killed Iranians, but Iran was supposed to allow more ships to go through. But because the Israeli regime began slaughtering uh the people of Lebanon uh and in in you know in an outrageous manner uh a few days ago just carpet bombed city after city they it was clear that they wanted to wreck the ceasefire. And so because uh the United States violated its side of the bargain the Iranians did not allow those extra ships to go through.

[00:11:58]So the last 10 days we could have had a large number of ships heading for different ports across the world to ease the economic strain but but Netanyahu prevented it. So Iran kept up the pressure and Trump put pressure on Netanyahu and the night before last there was supposed to be a ceasefire.

[00:12:17]Neta again failed to deliver and then Iran made an extra threat said well if this is going to continue we're going to strike Israel and that tipped the balance and you know was over of course the Americans are going to say that the Israelis and the Lebanese government sat together and had tea and uh Netanyahu said wow that was nice and so let's you know let's end the war that's that's the narrative that they're uh promoting and no no sane person will believe it but so this was this had very much to do with Iran. Iran has not agreed to hand over anything. Iran has not agreed to keep the straight of hormones forever open. Iran has not agreed to any any of the things that Trump has been saying.

[00:12:58]So why would Trump say it? Either he's just making up stuff to uh to manipulate the market, which is quite possible because today's Friday and uh it's the last day of the week and he's succeeded in bringing down the price of oil. He's done that multiple times. That's the one thing he's good at. He's not good at anything else, but uh >> Yeah, there's the number right there.

[00:13:24]That's it's that's quite a bit lower right there as you can see.

[00:13:27]>> Yes, exactly.

[00:13:29]But in reality, the oil there's still the the the shortage of oil is still is still increasing. Every day the shortage is getting worse. uh oil even if we have a number of limited ships going through the strait there's a lot of damage done to the facilities in the Persian Gulf and the way in which the Iranians have divi designed things the number of ships that are going to go through are not all that great so the shortage is going to get bigger and bigger at least for the time being and it's going to take time for things to start up but I think that we should not discount this notion that Trump is going it's like me saying that you promised to give me $20,000 to I don't know to to to do this or that. And then I tell everyone and I say, "Well, you you also promised this and and then at the end I I I I say you lied on this and you lied on that and you lied and you you never made a single commitment to me in the first place."

[00:14:31]But now I'm, you know, I'm I'm saying that you're indebted to me. You lied to me. You you promised A, B, C, D, and F.

[00:14:38]and this is my response or this is what I'm going to do about it. This is how I I I have a I think this all of this can be interpreted.

[00:14:49]>> And and let me ask you one more thing and I know you're running real short on time here. Two cool more quick questions. One is President Trump last night made a comment here about how reasonable the Iran the new Iranian regime as he calls it is being willing to be. Let me show you what he said and then ask your view on the backside.

[00:15:04]>> Blockade has been incredible. has been it's held and they're not doing any business. They're unable to do any business because of the blockade.

[00:15:13]>> And so the combination of having no Davy, having no air force, having no anti-aircraft equipment, they have nothing. Everything is gone, including their leaders. Now they have a new set of leaders and we find them very reasonable.

[00:15:27]>> So we find them very reasonable. First of all, uh do you agree with his his characterization that Iran has nothing and it's lost everything? Because if that's the case, I don't know why we bothered with the ceasefire. We should have just given you terms of surrender.

[00:15:39]But uh what about this reasonable new leadership?

[00:15:44]>> It's like everything else he says. It's just, you know, it's none of it makes any sense. Uh they're all and he's been saying that a long time. He's he's been saying that they're begging for a deal.

[00:15:56]You know, we we're you know, they're they want to do whatever I say. And it just, you know, that's why I'm not sure that that my interpret my possible the interpretation that I provided is necessarily true that he's going he wants to create some sort of fake justification for war because he could just be talking nonsense as he does all the time. I mean, as I said before, when in whenever people ask me, "What do you think Trump means by this?" I said, and this is this is a uh this is a fact. I never watch Trump. I don't I don't read his post unless it's like on unless someone puts it in a a group or something where I see it. I never watch him. I only read the headlines because it doesn't help me.

[00:16:43]>> I I I don't get anything from it because uh he'll say one thing today and something else some other day. So, I'm just not going to waste my time listening to him anymore.

[00:16:53]But again taking into consideration he's brought so many troops into the region when before the war started I believe that there was going to be war. I always told you know on in media I would say I don't know because I don't want to you know create any concern. I just say you have to be prepared either way. But when you bring in all these troops and you bring in all these weapons and you bring in all these planes, it's uh it's highly unlikely that this is just about a bluff. You know, someone who wants a bluff and and maybe take get some concessions and walk away. So, right now, the United States under Trump is bringing in more u weapons and more troops. So, my belief is that the chances of war are actually very high.

[00:17:42]And here, correct me if I'm wrong. I I was in the military a 100 years ago in my youth and I was never like yourself a trained officer. So I I cannot uh pretend that I know any any nearly as much as you do. We are approaching harder weather very soon and within a month I mean in a month from now it's going to start getting very hot and humid in the Arabian Peninsula and the Persian Gulf and I think fighting war is going to be much more difficult. Again, correct me if I'm wrong. You may say no with the new capabilities and technologies that's not really the case.

[00:18:21]But uh but you know when they invaded when the United States took Kuwait from Saddam and when the United States invaded Iraq, it was in spring. We are in at the end stage of the cooler weather in the Persian Gulf and in a month from now the weather is going to uh increase rapidly and it will get very hot and they have sandstorms and and all these things. I think that if the if I think that if Trump wanted to attack Iran, the you know the the more he waits, the more difficult it becomes in this respect.

[00:18:56]>> No doubt.

[00:18:57]>> I I can certainly I I actually went through one of those sandstorms in Desert Storm in 1991. So I I have direct experience with what you're talking about and it's uh it's no picnic. Uh yeah. So it we'll have to wait and see again on that too. So I I hope that that's >> again this is all speculation. I I want your viewers to know I have no insider knowledge.

[00:19:19]All I did was I'm just saying that this could be an interpretation of what Trump is doing. And and also since I think that in a month from now or two months from now it's really becomes really impossible to fight a war in that heat.

[00:19:33]I mean the soldiers would be >> moralized. So he doesn't have much of a window of opportunity since you you confirm that what I thought is not incorrect. So I think that the chance chances for a war in the coming days and the coming couple of weeks is probably quite high. So what what what do you make of the president's comment that the new Iranian leadership is more reasonable because that would have to mean Mustav Kami uh who whose parents were killed in this whose wife whose other family members who he himself was apparently wounded. Is he going to be more reasonable than Ali was?

[00:20:15]Well, I believe that Ayat the father was very reasonable and I see him as a a martyr, but um I don't think anything has changed. I don't think he means it that way. I just think he's uh you know, when I was a kid, they used to say he's winging it. I just think that he's just saying things. And uh that's why that's why uh this interpretation of mine uh this possible interpretation of mine can be easily uh rejected because that's what Trump does all the time.

[00:20:51]>> Well, that's true. Yeah, we certainly live that uh we have to watch it every day. So, it's a it's a little more of a challenge for me. Listen, I know your time's about out. Last question. What forget about what Trump says or anything else. Forget about the weather or anything else. What does Iran need? What are if you could say like three things that they are non-negotiables in order to bring this war to an end so that their traffic can go back through the trade hormone. What do they have to have from the United States?

[00:21:17]>> Well, the 10-point plan of course is the basis of the negotiations. Trump accepted that and they're not unreasonable demands. Iran did not lose the war. I would argue that Iran won the war. But I if you want to summarize it in the three words that you said, I'd say sovereignty, compensation, and security for uh Iran's friends across the region.

[00:21:44]>> And so what does that compensation? What does that look like? Is it setting up a toll booth? Is it physically getting some cash? How what does that look like?

[00:21:52]I think that Iran will force the uh these Arab family regimes in the Persian Gulf to uh pay that compensation. Whether it's through uh the straight of hormones or a combination of things, I don't know. But I think that that is what they're going to do. And they're probably going to use the focus on the straight of hormones to get that done.

[00:22:16]So therefore, if if the US is not willing to give any money or to allow a toll booth type situation set up and if they say we demand that you don't have control of the straight of hormones, then the war will continue on. Is that a fair statement?

[00:22:32]>> Iran is going to control the straight of hormones and Iran is going to get money from ships. It may allow some ships to pay less or very friendly countries to, you know, be treated differently, but Iran is going to do that. But I think that in the case of Trump, if he wants to go to war, it will have nothing really to do with the straight of hormones or anything else, it'll be because Netanyahu and the Zionist lobby want to war.

[00:23:01]And last question, if if you if the ceasefire does come to an end next week or whenever it does and the US goes back to bombing as you fear he may be setting up the case for, what will be the Iranian reaction?

[00:23:13]>> Well, actually, I'm not quite sure he'll wait till the ceasefire comes to an end.

[00:23:17]We may he may try to surprise Iran.

[00:23:19]After all, every time Iran negotiates, he carry he tries to carry out initiate a war. So, there's no reason to believe that he will wait for the ceasefire to end. I'm sure the Iranian armed forces are fully prepared as we speak for war, but um I think the Iranian response will be devastating. We saw that by the end of the war, Iran was hitting harder than early on in the war, and Iran is preparing itself for the next phase. I think that the United States when they try to take the islands, Iran and some territory, I think the Iranians will let them do that and then the Iranians will start hammering them with drones and missiles and let this go on for weeks if not months and just make them bleed and pay. And Iran will continue to destroy vessels in the Persian Gulf that move towards the straight of Hormos.

[00:24:15]If Iran's infrastructure is destroyed, it'll destroy the infrastructure on the other side of the Persian Gulf. And this is another important point, it's going, as we discussed earlier, it's going to get very hot in a month.

[00:24:30]And these Arab regimes in the Persian Gulf, if their electricity goes, everyone will have to leave. They will have to get in their cars and travel across Saudi Arabia and just get out of there. go to Iraq, go to Jordan, these countries will collapse. Every single one of them.

[00:24:48]Here in Iran, if they if they start striking our electrical, I mean, power plants, it will hurt us. But Tehran, we have snow on the mountains, right? Out if I look out the window, if I'm in a place where I could see beyond the other buildings, there's snow on the mountains. There's a huge difference between the Katar and the Emirates and Kuwait and and Bahrain and Iran. If their critical infrastructure is destroyed, they can first of all, it can be destroyed in a couple of days completely. They will all have to leave in a month from now. On the other hand, if they strike Iran's critical infrastructure, it will take much longer. And by the time that they go go halfway through, there's complete collapse on the other side. This is not a winnable situation for the United States. They will lose the war. The global economy will be destined to uh will be will be destined to fall into a deep uh um depression worse than 1929 if there is war. And it will be catastrophic for humanity. It will be it will be something beyond my mental comprehension.

[00:26:00]Uh because tens if not hundreds of people will go hungry. Tens if not hundreds of mill millions of people will go on will be on the move looking for somewhere to save themselves. It will be awful. But um God be with us all.

[00:26:19]Well, yeah, that's a that's an outcome that we we hope desperately doesn't materialize. And that's why we are so strongly advocating uh any kind of a negotiated deal that both sides can live with minimally and then move on because everything else is catastrophic uh or or worse in comparison. Thank you so much for coming on today.

[00:26:37]>> You know, one final point, one final point and that's why I keep telling people to go and read that book going to tan and maybe you can invite Flint and Hill Hillary Leard once on your show.

[00:26:48]They showed the way forward but the people in Washington decided to take the route chosen for them by the Zionists and uh that's what's leading us towards catastrophe.

[00:27:01]>> Uh everything is pointing that direction and let us hope that we can find an offramp but thank you so much. I know your time is really valuable. Thank you so much for pulling some time off for us. We really appreciate it. Thank you.

[00:27:12]>> Not at all.

[00:27:14]>> And that was ourh interview right there.

[00:27:16]So listen, lot of big points that he made in there. One of the things I want to highlight something that he said uh just as kinds of a go forward. He said, "I'm not a member of the Iranian government. I don't have any specific insider information to what they're doing, but he's the one thing we have to understand is that he was invited by the government to the last round of negotiations because he understands the way they think and obviously he has connections with the West uh like in our our channel here. But it's also important to understand that he is a combat veteran. He fought in the Iran Iraq war and that he certainly understands how the Iranians think. And so when he gives his his personal opinion, which he stressed several times, you've got to say that's that's got a pretty good likelihood of being true. And we're going to find out here because the there's the the versions of what President Trump is saying both in his truth socials and in those interviews that I just showed you before and what he's saying and what the Iranian side is saying in their social media post are incompatible. They cannot both be true. It cannot be that the Iranians have only agreed to open the strait if all these conditions are met.

[00:28:23]One of which is the Americans dropping their blockade and then the American side saying, "No, only the Iranian side agreed to drop their blockade and we're going to keep ours up and then that they're going to give away their reprocessing. They're going to give away their rich material. They're going to stop supporting proxies and all that kind of stuff." That's the maximalist position that was given before which Iran had agreed to at least put on the table prior to this war. So, we had that pos we actually had those outcomes within diplomatic reach before we threw that away by starting a war.

[00:28:52]Now, we're going to wait and see. We'll see who's who's who was right, who was wrong. Maybe President Trump knows something that we don't know and that the even something that Professor Morandi doesn't know and that behind the scenes the they have agreed to these things and they're going to somehow capitulate. I I give about a fraction of 1% for that to be the case because that would be irrational, illogical and go against everything the Iranian side does and it would contravene the leverage that they have in their hands and within their power. It would be illogical for someone with those kind of assets to just give them away for literally nothing in return. Or if President Trump is going to get in those things, then what did he promise them? Because nobody is going to give away something like that after they have just survived a six-w week war of all 13,000 attacks and they have emerged still intact is going to then just suddenly give them away for nothing. So either Trump isn't telling us everything or what he's telling us isn't true. And as you see on the the screen right there, you see the central command that apparently is lie. The the US naval blockade continues. So they're saying that at least as for us, this continues. Now, we'll wait and see what impact that has on the Iranians. Will their blockade then consequently still continue as well? That's what time will tell. Well, listen, one of the things that I wanted to talk about here and why what Professor Morandi said there at the end when he when I asked him uh very poignantly, if diplomacy fails and if this ceasefire doesn't hold and we turn back into conflict and by whatever means and it goes back into a hot war and the US returns to attacking Iran, what would they do? And he described to you right there about hitting critical infrastructure. If we hit their critical infrastructure, they're going to hit ours and our allies in the region, which would cause just utter devastation. And obviously then the strait would not be opened up. Oil would definitely not be flowing out under any of the circumstances.

[00:30:47]But why did we get in this war in the first place? Why are we still waging it?

[00:30:53]There was all these comments and and I've shown you a few of them where um Senator uh Senator Kennedy of of Louisiana said the other day, well, this is because they hate us and they were going to get a nuclear weapon and they were going to kill us. Well, that's been debunked. Everybody knows now by the word of the vice president and the president himself who said that there was no imminent threat because all of the nuclear material is in tmbed and buried under these facilities and we have satellite assets on it to prove that it's not true.

[00:31:22]Uh well, and then okay, there now we're starting to see things come out even.

[00:31:25]Thank you for putting that up there, Gary. That says 40 minutes ago, Iran denies Trump's claim that uranium will be transferred to the United States. So that uh now you're going to have to say who you going to believe? Well, you're going to believe whatever turns out to be true in the future. And unfortunately, and this is embarrassing to have to admit, so far some of the things that we've seen uh by the Iranian side, at least more of them have proven to be true. And the things that we have said at the senior levels have proven to be false or just a deception.

[00:31:55]Not to say that the Iranians are a paragon of truth. They'll they'll be dishonest and they'll uh be deceptive anytime they feel like it's going to be to their view. That's how war works. So you have to just accept that. That's how it it is for all the sides. You got to try to pierce through the words and look at what that's why we're always so focused on this channel every time we look at what is true on the ground. We hear what people are saying, but what's true on the ground and what's true on the ground right now is that the United States has suffered terribly in this war. And that's what I want to leave you with and understand here. When you hear people say that we had to do this or this is somehow that we're going to win, let me tell you what it's cost us so far and then let me project out what the cost could be if we don't get this shut off really quick. You know, a couple of days ago, I showed you I did a show where the Secretary of War Pete Hexath uh lectured the uh US media corps and you just pointed a bony finger at him and and threatened it with a lot of biblical admonitions and said and basically said, "You guys are insufficiently loyal and he said at one point, who side are you on?" Remember that? Remember when he asked that, "Who side are you on?" Well, I I can tell you yes for me because I'm obviously one of those he was wagging a finger at because I'm not cheerleading with whatever the Pentagon says and I'm not having a bunch of fluff pieces, which is weirdly what he actually asked for and his examples of why people aren't covering more fluff and why they are talking the truth because that's what we do. We're unintimidated and uncompromised to tell you the truth no matter what it is. And so we're on one of those finger wagon.

[00:33:28]Well, I can tell you for unequivocally whose side am I on? I am on America's side. I am on Americans side. I'm on the side of the US Constitution and of the people of our country. And I may reasonably ask, whose side are these war advocates on? Whose side is the Secretary of War on? Because if he's advocating for our security and for our defense, then one may reasonably ask, "Have we been better off because we went down the path that you advocated and that you lusted for and that you're eagerly applying?" Because so far, this is just a partial list here. Let's tell you what we've had here. Uh this has cost US uh troops 13 have been officially killed. It could be more. Uh we'll wait and see. There's been some question about whether or not we've been the Pentagon has been hiding some of the casualty list, but at least 13 we know of are dead. 400 have been wounded. 13 US bases in the Middle East have been damaged or destroyed so much that we had to evacuate them. 13 combat fixed wing aircraft have been destroyed. Six helicopters have been destroyed. A number of others have been harmed. Um 24 MQ9 Reapers have been destroyed or shot down. That's costing us about $3 billion on that by itself. 10 radar systems in a raise, at least officially at a cost of 3.5 billion have been destroyed. That's completely destroyed. So you're talking already we're we're on the in the price tag of around $200 billion, which is already a supplemental going through Congress right now on top of the 1.5 trillion that we're trying to get for next year's regular budget.

[00:35:15]Just think about that. $200 billion dollars so far. And just like we saw with the Iran war, Iraq war, I'm sorry, the 2003 Iraq war where they had the those supplemental uh budget requests that came through constantly on top of the regular defense budget turned into hundreds of billions of dollars. This one's starting in the hundreds of billions of dollars category, and it's open-ended.

[00:35:40]So, they're going to continue. So on top of all these physical costs, there's also the cost that we're trying to get back to continue the war. It's like a couple of billion dollars per day. And then you look at some of the other issues that are goes along with that.

[00:35:54]Our regional allies have been severely harmed. Their interests have been severely degraded. Their physical infrastructure has been attacked and destroyed. It's going to take hundreds of millions of dollars in many of the cases, billions in some other cases, many months to years to replace some of those like the pars gas field for Qatar.

[00:36:14]Others in the Kuwait has suffered a lot of damage. Bahrain has really suffered a lot of damage. UAE has suffered a lot of damage. Our our allies, people who put their trust in the United States have suffered really bad so far. That's in the physical damage. Then there's also the loss of income because with the straight of Hormuz effectively shut down or controlled by the Iranian side, their income has been dramatically radically declined. So their operating budgets are all in freefall. They're trying to figure out how they're going to feed their people, how they're going to just conduct the affairs of state. Um they can borrow money, but that only gets you so far down the line. Also, because traffic's not coming in, all the food stuffs and everything they need to feed their population is also in severe shortage because they can't get stuff in or out. So, they're really separate. Our allies in Asia, Africa, Europe, they're all suffering as well. We've been showing you there's there's already uh uh trying to get fuel in South Korea.

[00:37:14]They've had to ration it. Uh the Philippines, uh Vietnam, all in serious problems. uh Australia, they've got problems with both diesel fuel and with fertilizers and the fertilizer issue is hitting everybody.

[00:37:27]That's another thing that's already baked in problems in the fall when these food stuffs that we're trying to get planted right now come to fruition because it's costing more to get it to put in the ground because what fertilizer there is from other sources in the world is now because of supply and demand at a much higher cost per unit if there's even enough because there isn't enough. So that means that they're having to make do with less, which means that your yield is going to be less when it comes up. And of course, with the increasing price of diesel fuel, which nearly all farm equipment runs on, the cost of going to go up, too. So their margins are are shrinking by the day. And so many of them are already baked in to be in the red for this year. And that's just this year. So that means that when the food starts getting produced in the fall during harvest time, when it starts coming to market, it's also for everybody else to include the United States is going to be more as well. And then we have in the United States itself, our farmers are suffering already because they suffer the same problem with diesel and with the fertilizer issue that hits us just as much. So there's problems baked in here. Obviously, the price of a gallon of gasoline or a diesel, depending on what kind of vehicle you drive, is already up about a dollar. These are things that's already been baked in now.

[00:38:41]And then you have issues like uh because of we've used so many I didn't even talk about this yet. So many of our offensive missiles, whether that's the uh the the Tomahawk cruise missiles, the JASM, uh the SM2, SM3, several other categories, SM6, I think, several categories of offensive missiles. We have gone through a ton of those things and we have used up a huge amount of our interceptor missiles at the pack three the THAD system several other kinds as well. And even though we may have some more and apparently we've been really busy over the last uh 8 10 days since this ceasefire started of restocking everything and sending stuff throughout the region in case the president gives the order to restart this thing. They had to reload all of our ammunition, all of our we magazine stocks, all the the places where we store these things up on ships and all this other kind of things so that if Iran goes back to its firing, if it goes with more drones, if it goes with more missiles, we have the ability to at least attempt to intercept and shoot them down. So, we've got to shoot even more of those. If President Trump gives the word and the the ceasefire ends uh by whatever means, then we've got to have plenty of of offensive missiles so that we can go in with some kind of sustained rate of fire that's probably really high at the beginning like it was at the beginning of the war on February the 28th.

[00:39:57]All that cost a lot of money. And and what that means is our national stock piles keep dwindling. It keeps going down further and further and further.

[00:40:10]So, what happens if we have an unexpected military contingency anywhere else in the world? Remember, we brag about how we have a global footprint and we have military bases all over the planet. Well, listen friends, the if the 7800 bases, however many we actually have these days that we have everywhere, the the really high-tech, you know, the F-35s, the F-22s, uh F-18s, F-16s, 15s, all those great aircraft that we have, all the avionics that we go along with them, these great ships, we have the Arley Burke class destroyers, aircraft carriers, all this stuff. It's fantastic, but it's all meaningless if you don't have missiles.

[00:40:50]And that's our Achilles heel. We don't have the defense industrialbased capacity to extend those things out to replace combat losses to get into a sustained combat in this one theater of operations.

[00:41:05]Now, what does that tell you? And what does that tell our adversaries if they start looking around and going, "Man, the longer this thing drags on, the bigger problem that America is going to have to reply to anything else anywhere else." And I'm just telling you, I think it's already we're in the the red category to where if something did happen somewhere, god forbid, in Asia or in in Europe somewhere, and we had to go fight an unexpected war, we'd be screwed. I mean, I'm just going to call it what it is. Straight up. Our national security capability has been severely degraded because of this foolish excursion, as the president calls it.

[00:41:38]this war of choice, this war that violates American law, violates morality, all of those things that has been costed so far. So why would we want to get into a situation to where the physical cost has already been astronomical when our security was never threatened up to this point? We should never have gone into those. All these Americans should still be alive. All these bases should still be fully operational. All these inventories should still be up here. and none of them are. We've lost all of that. And we need to start asking some hard questions. Why did we go down this path? Why are we spending all this money? And why are we not taking the off-ramp now?

[00:42:21]Now, I was emphatic in in the the spring of 2022 that at the uh Istanbul meetings uh between the United States in and uh Russia and and Ukraine that there was a deal on the table and it would have been it would have gotten the war off the table in a couple of months. And just think how many hundreds of thousands of people would still be alive today. And how much more territory in Ukraine would still belong to them. And how many more cities would still be fully operational and no one would have ever had to leave and flee the millions of people that have fled and go elsewhere in Europe.

[00:42:55]How many of that how big of a cost to humanity, much less us and our allies, has that cost because of our foolish unwillingness to take a diplomatic deal on the table? We are in a similar situation right now.

[00:43:10]We have a deal on the table that can be done. It can be based on the Iranian 10-point plan, which is something that we would hate just like it would that the Istanbul something was something the Ukrainians hated and didn't like. It would have taken a bitter pill, but that would have been profoundly better, orders of magnitude better. Had they taken that bitter pill then, it been it been ancient history by now. That have been four years ago. four years ago is is that would have been taken care of.

[00:43:40]Half these cities that were already damaged would have been rebuilt and these other ones have never have been torn down. That's the cost of letting go with a diplomatic off-ramp when you have it because you it's an unpleasant here today. We have an offramp, too.

[00:43:53]President Trump would have to take a bitter pill. He would have to swallow and take a lot of heat domestically.

[00:43:58]There's no doubt about it. It would be a big problem, especially heading into the midterms. There's no question about it.

[00:44:04]I'm not trying to make it sound like it's an easy solution. It's a hard call, but it is desperately necessary. And this is where we need actual manly leadership.

[00:44:16]So, you want to talk about President Trump being this great guy? Okay, here's your chance to prove it. We need leadership right now like we have never needed it before in my lifetime. Maybe the the last time was like 1962, the Cuban missile crisis when we needed some really strong, firm life and death leadership, which we got from JFK that prevented a nuclear war. President Trump has an opportunity right now with firm decisive leadership and manning up and doing the hard thing and eating some crow where it needs to be, having some humility, but recognizing for the good of the nation, this is what we have to do. If we get this war off the table right now, then this can be an ugly chapter. There's already some problems baked in. There's a bunch of I already talked about here. Regional allies is going to be a problem. The the way he's treated our NATO allies even today, that's going to be a problem. That's something we're going to have to navigate. That's that's already Iran.

[00:45:10]You heard Professor Morandi there, and there's no reason to think that this is not the same thinking of their government. They're in control of the straight of Hormuz, and they will never give that up. They're gonna open it up and have some kind of a a passage.

[00:45:23]Whether there's tolls, whether someday there's not tolls, that's to be determined, but it'll be opened up. But it will be with the understanding that they could close it back at any time. We cannot you can't put that genie back in the bottle. And there's no way militarily to prevent them from doing it. That's another bakedin cost that's already. But if we go forward, if there is another big splash, if we return by our choice to the war and we do try to hit Iran the way that his, it's not just Professor Miranda you got to listen to.

[00:45:51]It's what the Iranian leadership has said. They will strike back tit fortat.

[00:45:56]They will hit our regional allies in ways they haven't so far. And they will hit our assets in ways that we haven't been hit so far. And Israel will again get hit in ways that it hasn't so far.

[00:46:07]And because we've used so many of our interceptor missiles, it's not likely we can go on. And and Iran can probably say, "Hey, bring it on. We'll we'll we'll have this fight with you. It'll hurt us, but we can stretch this out. We can probably survive a half year like this." I don't think the United States can. I don't think that we can economically or militarily because we don't have that much ammunition and our defense industrial base can't produce it. No one in the West can.

[00:46:32]So, we're at a critical critical juncture to where we're either going to suffer a strategic defeat which is already baked in along with all the harm that would go along that I just mentioned here and the cost that's already been there. But if we reject this, I I I dare to even speculate what it could be. But it could be profound.

[00:46:52]It could be an economic depression which would wreck everything that we have built in in in the the last 250 years.

[00:47:00]That's how serious this is. That's why I'm so adamant that now may be our last best chance to avoid outright catastrophe. And I pray to God President Trump takes this opportunity. Thank you very much, folks. Appreciate you on a Friday afternoon. Again, if there's any breaking information, anything else happens even during the rest of this day, we'll bring it to you. Otherwise, uh we'll give you an update tomorrow on our weekly intelligence brief. We'll be giving you the best of what we learned this week and the most important things we learned overnight. We'll give that to you tomorrow at 11:00 a.m. Like always, you can count on us and we'll see you then on the Daniel Davis Deep Dive.

[00:47:33]Don't forget to tell your friends, the ones that love to listen to podcasts.

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