IRAN TO TEST NUKES IN 12-18 MONTHS - w/ #1 Political Scientist Prof. Robert Pape

Added: 2026-05-14

[00:00:00]uh now over time even longer in about uh I would say you know something like 12 months 18 months from now I think there's an extremely high chance well over 80% Iran's going to test nuclear weapons uh here this has been something that has been held back for some time that the only reason that they have not gone down this road Mario is not because they don't have capability here it's really been about the will to have nuclear weapons and that will now is about as maxim maximum as you could possibly have and there are very if you look at who are the other powers that are global powers they all have nuclear weapons so the idea that Iran is not going to see the value in nuclear weapons I think this is just not plausible it's not absolutely locked in I wouldn't say it's exactly 100% but I think anybody looking at this a year and a half out if you don't if you're not covering it with uh with hopes here um you have to see that they are extremely motivated uh here to do it and they have all the capability to do it and by the way they could start from scratch uh mining the ore right out of SAN that they have uranium ore mines let's say they can't dig out the 60% uranium let's just make some worst case uh assumptions here as I would if I were on the NSC and I were doing these analyses uh here fine say you have a start from scratch uh here uh I still think it's well over um uh probably 70 80% uh they would have a working nuclear weapon probably five of them uh in 18 months starting from scratch using just the caverns they're using for their drones they're hiding their drones in. So just that limited capability even if they have to produce the centrifuges and so forth. uh here now now I don't have classified information maybe somebody who showed me that they'd say oh here's why it would take 24 months not 18 months but this is not we have not set them back in any way that's going to be operationally meaningful to us in the time horizons we care about here with the nuclear program uh here um and so I just think it's important to to see that they are gaining power they're becoming this emerging force center of world power.

[00:02:18]They've got a ways to go, but they're already feeling the roads diplomatically. And um they're already talking with Russia and China about what a the quotes coming out are a new security architecture in the Persian Gulf or in the Middle East, I'm sorry.

[00:02:35]So that's the only thing we know is that's what they're talking about. I don't think they're talking about Israel being a hegeimon. I don't think they're talking about America being dominant.

[00:02:44]They're talking about Iran being the hegeimon here. And I think that this is what the other great powers, they're they're working with Iran to make that happen.

[00:02:57]>> Wow. What what a significantly bad result of this war so far. So if the US if Trump and the US have kind of two options, one is accept Iran as a new world power or continue this war, deplete munitions, deplete political uh capital, increase debt and cause more havoc in the region. Which option do you think the US would take and what factors play into that decision? Because obviously there's going to be pressure from the Gulf. I don't know in which direction.

[00:03:29]Pressure from Asia >> obviously towards peace. China, Russia, would they want peace or would they want war to weaken the US? And of course Europe would want peace, I guess.

[00:03:37]>> Yeah. The the the hard part about this Mario is there's no stable equilibrium here, the path. So when I lay this out on my graphics here, uh I have the stage one is stage two and then the branch to stage three and stage four, which are these two options. Then I have a dotted line in between. And when I give talks about this and I'm explaining this now, there is an it's an unstable equilibrium between these. And the reason is because both of those uh pathways have significant costs for the United States, the world etc. So you are not seeing a stable movement or a stable equilibrium.

[00:04:18]The hope was negotiations would be the stable thing. Now what you're on are a branch, a fork in the road. Uh these are both bad choices as you're seeing. So you would expect bouncing back and forth. So that may mean um um uh a few weeks of bombing uh here and then back to saying, "Oh, okay. Now we've tried a few weeks of bombing again. Can we get them back to the negotiating table?" Uh and I'm telling you that this is going to go on for months. This is not going to be um uh I think a a short term, but we're still thinking and this is something I want to develop a little bit more here, Mario, as we go forward because especially with you and you're so smart and you're you're uh you're uh you've been, you know, sort of early on this and you've given me opportunities.

[00:05:05]The the big thing intellectually that's still happening and it's happening now.

[00:05:11]we've now gotten used to in the last few days. The negotiations are not really going to happen. Okay, that's what everybody's coming to grips with. And I know because I've been on so many programs here and people are starting like what you're saying, which is professor babe, we we we kept saying the hope and now we know you're okay. But as we go forward, notice that people are still and and it's just human nature.

[00:05:35]They're thinking in the very short term.

[00:05:37]And the reason is uh and let me say why that makes sense with human nature is because if Iran does start I'm sorry if Trump does uh come out of the you know next week, next Monday, next weekend bombing electric power in um in Iran, then you can expect in Dubai you're going to get hurt here because what's going to happen is Iran is going to lash back. And we know they're going to lash back. And the of course it's not 100% in stone. They're going to lash back, but it's extremely likely. So we know what that round is going to look like. You see what I mean? And so people are wondering, "Oh my god, is it really going to happen? Is it going to happen in the short term?" So this is going to go on for for for weeks and months because, as I'm saying, the the natural thing I'm expecting is you'll get um a few weeks down pathway three of escalation. and you'll try pulling back to negotiations, but that really just going to look like more turning Iran into stage four the uh you know emerging world power. Um and here so you'll just keep bouncing back and forth. The big thing Mario that is going to take a few months but it will happen is when states countries uh start to think in the medium term I don't mean five years from now but they start to actually have a strategy. You see what's happening is people are bouncing around tactics.

[00:06:58]They're they're saying, "Well, should we um you know, make a deal offer um she x y or z." It's about tactics, you see.

[00:07:06]And it's because tactics are shortterm thinking. It's it's uh and we're in the pressure of the costs are just so impressive on us right now. That that's all completely understandable. But Mario, I've been dealing with this is now my sixth war. It's my first war with you. Okay. [laughter] All right. But I've been doing this since 1991 with the first Gulf War. Before we had the internet, before we had social media, before we had X, believe it or not, we actually had war before we had social media. I know it's a little hard for your generation to even imagine. How could you have a war without X, but that's we actually had that. Um, and and I was in the media even as a young guy uh here. Really quite an honor because in the first Gulf War, we had no talking military heads. to the generals you see on TV that came later in the 90s. So who were they interviewing on TV and who were they uh designing all these USA Today and Washington Post articles?

[00:08:04]Professor Pape was doing a lot of that as a very young person. So I've been in the media much much longer now not con continuously. Okay. Uh, so it's not like I've had the show in the media or a broadcast, but it's it's this is now I think my sixth war. So I'm very familiar with the human nature here. Now, as time goes on though, and this may have to wait until after the midterms, you're going to see some longer term strategy and thinking here. And by the way, I think you're seeing it with Saudi Arabia already. uh and they've started this even before the war because they already started to think about having a security uh guarantor at least to some extent with Pakistan uh here uh they already thought about oh building some relationships with China well these are not just about economic deals and Pakistan's clearly a security uh arrangement or at least on paper uh here uh what this is is thinking a little bit longer term that you might need some backup thoughts about what happens if America really is unreliable under a future Trump if Trump comes back which of course in 2023 it was not clear when Saudi Arabia was doing these things um but uh starting these things but this was some sign of longer term thinking here is what I mean and so I'm not telling you we're yet at a at a stage to really um uh truly develop that right now I think we're going to have to go through um probably months of more short-term tactical thinking back and forth uh here. And a lot of it is because the world just knows that the midterms are going to be uh incredibly consuming here for the American president. His uh his say here is still very very huge. Uh America's power has come down and I want to talk to you about that in just a second. There's a specific thing I want to mention to you.

[00:10:05]Uh but um but what's what's happening here is that we're just uh still in short-term thinking and tactical thinking and it's for the public it's very hard for the public to to not um be in that mode uh here. uh however your program the substack I'm involved in others bit by bit we're getting some longer term approaches here and this is what's happening on the internet uh here the internet what I'm involved with and I'm it's you know it's several hours a day now okay um what I'm involved with is a lot more longer term thinking uh here um whether it's even my short little exposts now. Uh but tonight I'm doing something on X and I think they told me something like 20 or 30,000 people are supposed to show up for this uh here tonight. Um again, a lot of this is very new to me. Uh but they're not showing up, I think, to hear my latest rant on Trump. Um they're thinking like you are. They want to know the the the longer term or the medium term. And that's where we're we're moving the world actually. So essentially we're going to see a a period of time now of tactical thinking and tactical thinking would mean back and forth between the two countries trying to mainly on the American side trying to get the best case scenario. The only good scenario and that is some sort of deal which would lead to an equilibrium result. In that tactical phase we may see strikes back and forth where obviously the Gulf would suffer especially the UAE based on what we've seen in recent days. Um and eventually the US will have to come to terms with the possibility or the probability that it's going to be one or two scenarios.

[00:11:51]Get dragged through the escalation trap back into war or accept Iran as a global hedgeimon which would change the world in many ways and you're going to talk about that. You mentioned earlier you want me to remind you about America's power going down which means other countries like Iran going up. We'll talk about that just in that in that back and forth tactical phase. Um, could we see um a I've been really thinking about this as the only military action that I wouldn't say makes sense.

[00:12:18]I don't agree with it, but it makes sense more than anything else. And that is a decapitation strike putting international law and humanitarian laws or >> Yeah, exactly. a decapitation strike again to um to assassinate the leaders in Iran that are not accepting to make a deal which may include Mushabak, the supreme leader according to Israeli sources. Um I think Israel officially said that. So another decapitation strike to then keep going through the layers. I know there's multiple layers to hopefully get leaders that value their own life over maybe Iran or ideology.