Financial Markets: CPI in the Morning; Ira Epstein's Video for 5-11-2026

追加: 2026-05-19

[00:00:14]Good evening all. I Rapstein with your financial market wrap-up. And this wrap-up is for the evening as we're here now on Monday the 11th of May already 2026. It doesn't feel like it in where I'm at in Indiana and Chicago. We're in the 50s 60s. We're just getting out of the 40°ree weather. So, we really haven't enjoyed enjoyed much of a spring at all. It's coming, but it's not here yet. I I for one, I'm fine. I I like the brisk weather, but if you sit in the sun, it's nice and warm and it's very enjoyable. I want to wish and say I didn't see you over the weekend in these videos because my wife had this monstrous thing. It's our first big event with our family since we moved here about four months ago and it it was just out of control. So, it was fun and uh I'll be back to normal for you on the weekends. Now, we had the event and I know you know it that the Iranians responded finally and I told you they do it in their own time and we'll dance to their tune. They're not going to dance to our tune. They're not going to listen to Secretary of State Rubio. They're not going to listen to Trump. When they answer, it's because that's the time to answer.

[00:01:22]And they said, "No, no, no, no. uh what they'll do is on their terms, blah blah blah. Hey, you started a war with us.

[00:01:29]You're going to pay for the whole thing.

[00:01:31]You're going to do it with uh ret repatriation money. You're going to give us all the funds that have been locked away illegally by you. I can go on and on the list, but there was something that people aren't paying attention to.

[00:01:45]And it's the whole thing.

[00:01:48]They're willing to give up a portion of the uranium, the highlyenriched to some third country. Russia is probably the one.

[00:01:57]They'd like to dilute the remaining amount. Why? I don't know. Because they're also saying they're not getting rid of their enrichment facilities, and they're not going to agree to a 20-year moratorum. I don't care. Something happened. There's the crack in the wall.

[00:02:13]The wall cracked when now they're number one. It's not a question. Do they have it? They have the uranium down there.

[00:02:19]They want to get rid of the a portion of it. Getting rid of a portion. All that's all negotiation. You've got what you want. Why is the United States there in the first place? To stop them from having and getting an Abomb to fire at New York City, LA, Chicago, London, Paris, Amsterdam. Go all over. Anywhere you want to go. That's the key. you're never going to stop them from funding all the militia groups they have. That that was a pipe dream. It's nice to ask for it, but again, you ask for things, you give things up. Once we saw the missiles go to Diego Garcia, game was over. They already have missiles that can get pretty far and they probably go farther than that. So, you have one element, as I see it, and who am I, but that's the element that I see. And they're willing to talk in a big way.

[00:03:09]They've made a concession. Now, it all ties together nicely because the president, our president's leaving to meet PresidentQi in China and maybe the largest client of the Iranians, China, can lean a bit and get things together. Why not? China's after world power. It wants to be a leader. Take center stage, baby. This is your chance.

[00:03:34]I don't know what the US would give up, but there'd be something. There's things we want. We want more soybean trade. I was looking at the amount of soybeans that China imported last month. The numbers are pretty high. So, they're buying. We have it ready to go. So, there's a lot to be done here. You know that you're going to be looking at Bo does Boeing get another uh order from the Chinese? Who knows that? That could be something else. There's a lot for both sides to give on. The US is going to have to give on something. And you're already at Monday. You're probably 85 90% of the way through because there's groups that have already done the deal.

[00:04:13]There's the last parts. The presidents are not going to meet to be embarrassed.

[00:04:17]If you believe that, you're sorely wrong. The disruptor could be Iran because if they strike the United States blockade now, right in front of this meeting, we'll respond and if it escalates, then President Trump is going to meet Chi in the middle of this event.

[00:04:35]I don't know how much she then can lean or would want to lean on Iran. Just don't know. So that's the wild card as I see it. But what do I know? I was not in the military. Uh you know that that's all I can tell you. But it's not hard to read and see this and I think I've called it fairly accurate along the way.

[00:04:54]Wish I would have gone to West Point maybe. All right. So as we look at the rest of everything, what do you do with it? Well, we have a lot of news coming out. You got first off, you're going to get the NFIB small business optimism.

[00:05:07]That's coming out at five. Here's the big numbers. These are all the CPI. I rarely show you these because I I that's what I say for my other people, but it's such big event tomorrow because it's the first real reading. It's 8 weeks after the war. We're going to find out what's going on for April. Okay, that's real important because did it lock in? Is it starting to embed the higher energy prices? We'll see. Redbook retail sales at 7:55. Chicago Fed uh Reserve President Goulsby speaks uh tomorrow around noon. And then we have the API numbers coming out. But this is what's important. By the way, we have PPI numbers right after that later in the week and retail sales. Uh a big numbers, not this one. There's other numbers coming up. So, let's keep going. For those of you that use Trading View, you know, I I show here all the indicators I use. Well, we developed a suite of indicators for this. And if you use Trading View, our suite will work for you. You go to our website, irapstein.com, and under client resources, you sign up for it there.

[00:06:16]We in that sign up turn it on for you.

[00:06:19]We send you an email. It's all done. So, if you're interested in getting all this with the exact ones that I use, and if you're a window envelope fan like I am, every time I make a change in them, you get those changes. They're sent to you by email as I make them. So, you get that you can turn off whatever you'd want in it. You can enhance it anyway.

[00:06:39]It doesn't stop you from using all your other indicators in it, but now you get to see some of this in a pretty interesting way. It only takes up two of your slots, by the way. And for those of you that do that, you understand what it is. Go to irapstein.com. You can call my staff if you need. You can click right up here and that'll be on this icon through the whole video as we get into the chart analysis now or over here if you're watching uh this on YouTube. Just click the gears and it'll take you right to the site. Okay. So now let's take a look at what we've got in the markets and and try to understand it from this point.

[00:07:16]And why don't we just go to the charts and not do anything more. And I think that's where the sense comes in. First off, if we finish like this in the S&P, it's a new all-time high. I have seen the new projections come out by a lot of people I respect. And you know, as I told you, they were going to start lifting them from the 7,500 level. So you're now some are at 8,000, some are at 8,200 by the end of the year that we can see a peak. Okay. The markets prolonged. Nothing goes this long without a correction. At some point, it's going to set in. If you don't believe that, you're making a mistake. I could not tell you the day, the time, but I can tell you from experience, this is what happens. And it can be an immediate five to 10% correction for whatever reason. I don't know the reason. So, warning, fair warning to all, just like in a bidding auction.

[00:08:10]Fair warning.

[00:08:12]higher lows, higher highs, still bullish until you take out 7337.

[00:08:19]The market staying well over the 18-day average and the lineup once you got this 18-day average to get over the 100. The 100 was over the 200. The game took off on you because that's the classic bullish setup of mo of moving averages.

[00:08:34]What were the objective on the upside was Ballinger band. So you hit it three, four days ago, you came down, you've been hitting it about four or five days in a row. Now that is called the gorilla glue trade. I named it because when a market does that, it forces the embedded reading into place. It's when you lose that reading, which you haven't done by the red line, the 9550 closing under 79, you typically then put price and the nearest moving average back together, the main one, and that would be the 18 in this case. Not saying it's happening yet.

[00:09:09]In the NASDAQ, it's the same thing. The lineups are all here. You've got the 18 over the 100, 100 over the 200. You came up and in the past five, six days, you keep hitting the Binger band. Doesn't mean you can't keep going, but my experience shows that it doesn't you're you're at the you're getting to the point where just start expecting a correction. So, if you're buying, be careful. the buying. Be certain that you have protection in place. The market that's not like that is the Dow. It doesn't hit it. It's not riding the Ballinger band. You've got the higher lows, higher highs. The market's still in a bullish mode, but it won't react as much as the others that are being pulled like a rubber band. And the one after that is the Russell. So, to get the rally going, we saw it was first the Russell, then the Dow, and not the NASDAQ. if you'll recall, just go back two, three weeks and the S&P then the leadership changed again on you and that's where you're at. When we're looking at interest rates, well, obviously, why do you want to guess right now in CPI and PPI what they come out with and what the reaction will be?

[00:10:20]I think it's a bad guess. You have a lower low, a higher high pattern. You have a resistance point in the 18-day average and support in the Ballinger band. That Ballinger band is so important because only 5% of the time does the market stay above it or below it. So it gives you an idea of a zone of support and resistance. And then when you tie in that momentum, you really know it it comes together. I have three courses on the website that teach you the full parts of these then how to use them in different ways. And I think it's fascinating. In the two-year notes, you came from the lower band up and right back. you're oversold in the market.

[00:11:00]I'll let somebody else want to play it.

[00:11:02]I don't know what the CPI and PPI are going to do this week. In the dollar, it hasn't opened yet tonight, but I'm bearish. So, you'd have to get over this high here right now. Uh 9817 for me to say, "No, that neutralized my bearishness." Barring that, I can see the market getting to the 9758. But I I think this is just the beginning of a bare play. How do you catch it? Well, I'll have that for you later. At least ideas in the British pound. Well, looks like Starmer, the British pound's up. He didn't sink it. You know, they they all want him out. He's not out. The trend is up. The bias is up. You're overbought into the bowlinger band. That's the area the pros, I think, keep bailing if they're buying on the break in the Japanese yen. I'm predicting failure.

[00:11:53]They haven't done anything I've seen to change the reason that they had to intervene. And without that, you can throw all the money you want. You can keep the market elevated a short while.

[00:12:03]You won't do it a long time. At least that's what history says. So, I'm looking for where the market rolls over and where the opportunity comes. I don't think it's on the long side. When we look at Bitcoin, you know, I'm bullish.

[00:12:16]I I told you I think it's going back to the 100,000 level. I probably said it here a dozen times recently. Uh and now you've got the bullish crossover where the 18-day average uh starting on Thursday and Friday got itself to the point where it's getting over that and now it's gotten it. You're making new highs on the move. Just what I'd expect when we look at the energies. I think you hang around here. That's what I think. But don't you think that it was a very muted response today? The rally in the Brent. If you think, give you an example here.

[00:12:49]If you think going up 2 and a half% 2.88 was a big move, it wasn't. I mean, look at how much you dropped the other day.

[00:12:57]So, when you hear the whole thing's coming apart and that's how the press is playing it, I'm going I don't think so.

[00:13:02]I think people are missing the point.

[00:13:04]There's been movement and that's what you're there for. You don't want them to have that weapon and now they're saying the things you want them to say. Once the door opens, it's how far you can pry it. That's what I think's going to happen. And then Iran gets rewarded. It will get the money that we've held back from them. It will get help from the US to rebuild. It will get things if it becomes a good character actor. We know they're always going to hate Israel. We know that what's in there that the natural hate for the West, a good character actor that you can get along with. You don't have to like us. Let's not fight.

[00:13:44]Lower highs, lower lows. you're back up to the 18-day average of closes in rebob gasoline. You couldn't even get me to think the short side. Now, what they're doing is I live in a state where three days ago they wiped out their sales tax and what we have an excise tax on uh each gallon of gasoline or diesel. Now, the federal government, Trump wants this done. He can't do it. It takes Congress.

[00:14:09]They want to remove the federal tax. So it' be about 18 and a half to 20 some odd cents that they can take off. Well, in in my state here now of Indiana, that'd be 77 cents a gallon. That's a lot. And it's just happening now. So it just go I I saw these signs change overnight for what the the governor here did. I don't know if your state's doing it, but you should be all over them.

[00:14:32]This is a well-run state that I'm in. I I like it. When you now look here, I'm applauding because I had my clients in here. I must tell you that. And I told him to buy and I said, "I think we're going up to the upper bowlinger band."

[00:14:46]Again, a broken clock is right twice a day. Got it. I have plenty that don't work. But this one worked. My clients got to be very happy at this point. And I hope you join us with that. You know, I keep bringing it up. Why don't you come in and join us and see what it is?

[00:15:02]You can do it all on the website. It's easy to do. I'm Ira. You have yourself a great evening. We'll get all this in the morning and I'll catch up with you in the other videos and in the morning flash video.