Exit polls predict election outcomes by surveying voters after polls close, and Pradeep Gupta's Axis My India poll predicted that actor Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) would win 98-120 seats in Tamil Nadu's 234-seat assembly, representing a potential tectonic shift in Dravidian politics that could upset the ruling DMK alliance. This prediction was based on demographic analysis showing TVK's unprecedented support among women voters (38%, highest among all formations) and youth voters (68% of first-time voters), combined with significant anti-incumbency sentiment against both traditional Dravidian parties. The poll suggested TVK would perform three to four times better than other pollsters' predictions, with the potential to create a hung assembly scenario where TVK and ADMK might form a coalition to exclude DMK.
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Tamil Nadu Exit Polls | TVK To Win 98 To 120 Of Tamil Nadu's 234 Seats: NDTV-Axis My India Exit PollAdded:
Wow, Axis My India. Oh, 98. TVK, [laughter] oh my god, good lord. What is Pradeep Gupta doing and what is he thinking? He said there'll be a surprise. He's saying TVK can get 98 to 120.
>> excited. Yes, very exciting.
No, whether it's Axis No, that is shocking. That's That is shocking because 98 to 120, either Pradeep Gupta is going big or he's going home.
Pradeep's Pradeep's refused to go by the past. He's going by what his data says and and this one I mean I would while it may be an extreme outlier, it is not impossible because when you travel Tamil Nadu, wherever you went, you heard the TVK name spelled. So, it's I'm I'm not saying that he's also showing DMK at 92 to 110, which means it's a fractured verdict, but basically a collapse of the ADMK and a fight between the DMK and the TVK. So, Rahul, this is a hung assembly then, right? If No, but his poll with TVK around 120 on the higher end of the range, essentially he wanted some Shankar, he wanted some drama, he's giving you that drama tonight. No, I I have the perfect Tamil film dialogue from Rajinikanth.
>> Go for it.
This is exactly Even if I come late, I will be the latest.
>> [laughter] >> Vira, you have a Tamil film dialogue as well, go for it.
>> I don't have a Tamil film I'm just going to say that I I come late, I risk being the wrongest. Also, Pradeep Gupta's data, but then you never know, it's a fantastic this one that he It's a courageous call.
I'll add another Rajinikanth dialogue to Yes, yes, Madhavan, go for it. This is in favor of Vijay if this data is true, which is that finally a Kootama Varum Singam Singala Varum.
Bigs come in odds, the lion comes alone.
If this is true, then Vijay has turned out to be the lion that has come.
>> but I have a problem with your dialogue about a Vijay victory. You can't be quoting Rajinikanth, you have to give us a Vijay dialogue. How does this work?
No, no, let me be very Hang on, hang on. Madhavan has something I have a reply.
>> Yes. Please remember both Kamal Haasan and Rajinikanth have disappointed the politics-loving youth of Tamil Nadu by suddenly going into a whimper mode, one completely opting out, the other settling for a little Rajya Sabha seat.
So, Vijay is delivering on that screen meets politics.
>> Madhavan, dialogue Shankar, ask him for dialogue. Shankar has something, Shankar has something. You know, the dialogue is precisely because the single personality impact of Vijay is much stronger than what we've been thinking all along. Can you encapsulate this in the dialogue? Yes, yes, Shankar. Gilli gilli, this is from Gilli. Saying Ah, this place, that place, whichever place is my place.
>> Yes. That's what he said. No, but this would mean He didn't even know a dialogue, boss. One Vijay dialogue, boss.
Vasudha keeps saying I'm a Vijay fan, Vijay fan.
>> [laughter] >> Vijay has one dialogue, boss. How do you know I'm a Vijay fan? You have one Vijay dialogue, partner. Really? I have a Vijay trivia. Do you know that Vijay fans are known as Anil? Yeah, we didn't know that. My good friend [laughter] Vasudha has been renamed Anil because they keep calling me.
Why they call Anil?
I want you to translate for the viewers of NDTV the word Mersal, which is one of the titles of Vijay movies. Please translate that. Bravery, Mersal. Mersal is is a is a person who's got bravery, who's who's a challenger, who will fight everything out. Then Pradeep Gupta is Mersal today.
No, no, I I have one Vijay dialogue, boss. I have one Vijay dialogue and honestly, this is a very famous dialogue for anyone who's and it's in English, so I don't have to translate it. I am [music] waiting.
His most famous dialogue is I'm waiting.
Narayan Lakshman, what do you make? He's been waiting for a while. TVK, can it How many films have you seen? Yeah, I mean how many of these Vijay He's got like Rajinikanth, Vijay, he's got everything. Shankar, go for it. Tell us the agenda. I thought the film isn't out yet.
Unless you've seen a pirated version of the film You know, you're allowed Every guy on his phone is watching [laughter] this movie.
The filter coffee, the filter coffee at the Times. Look at the impact.
Everyone's out with the dialogue. Yeah, yeah. No, but Rahul, I think to look at the actual analysis, basically the networks cast net votes still matter, especially in the western part of the state. And the decisive strength there ADMK and the DMK. As Vira was saying earlier, the DMK is present in every one of those contests.
>> Yes. Therefore, it gains a fair share in urban centers. It also captures some part of these states. And so, for Vijay, it is an uphill climb. I I would say even more than the ADMK.
That's the Yes, Jan Naayagan dialogue, pirated Jan Naayagan dialogue. Censor board, please catch him. Producers, please catch him, but go for it, Shankar.
So, there's a long litany in front of they badmouth me, they badmouth you, they badmouth this, that, and then he comes and says, "I am coming." I am >> I say I'm waiting, you're saying he's coming.
>> [laughter] >> No, no, but you have to do it like Vijay in Tamil. No, no, but this is an updated dialogue. You can't say coming, you have to say coming.
>> [laughter] >> That's also his political song, right?
It says Unga Vijay Naa Varum, that's the song, right?
No, but I'll tell you what, seriously, on on the serious Vira has jumped out of his skin, that's how excited he is. No, but if this result is true, if this result is true, and there's a big if to it, I think it's tectonic as far as Dravidian politics is concerned because it becomes a DMK versus TVK categorical battle A, and B, this result leaves the possibility of a hung assembly. Leave the upper end, at the lower end, it leaves a You don't know if there's a hung assembly, TVK and ADMK will come together. 22 to 33 plus 98 to 120, they'll come together. Then it's out, DMK is out. No, no, that's right. Then it means that the ADMK becomes the subsect of the TVK. It means a total takeover. So, I think that's where the tectonic shift is.
The It's This poll is predicting two things, Rahul.
One, at any cost, and this is DMK plus, not DMK.
>> [music] >> You You remember so many other seats are with the allies. At 92 or at 110 for the DMK plus, it means that the DMK by itself is very very I just want to say something very important on behalf of NDTV.
This is not our poll. This [laughter] is the Axis My India poll.
If he gets it right, all credit to Pradeep and his team for calling a spectacular poll and getting it right.
If he gets it wrong, it's his headache.
It has nothing to do with us. That I want to make very clear. Read the offer document Axis My India poll. This is the Axis My India poll and like we've shown you Axis, we've shown you all the other pollsters as well. So, this is really not our neck on the chopping line, please remember that. We can say his name now, Pradeep Mersal Gupta. Mersal, yeah. This is really He will have lifelong free tickets to Jan Naayagan if this poll is right. No, I don't know whether it's Vijay or Pradeep Gupta who's the Mersal in the equation, but uh I think it's very very exciting, that's what excites us first.
But I think the person to watch out for next is Sengottaiyan. Yes. This is the man who defected >> At 98 to 120, the person to watch out for is Vijay. You know, it becomes everybody. But my thing is that this is this this should actually send shivers down the DMK. Would you agree, Narayan Lakshman? It It would, but again, Vira, if we are not hearing this from our reporters on the ground. We're not hearing that as a combined the DMK plus plus will fall well below 118. We are not This is not picking that up. I know.
I have to put that out there. I I have a question for all my Tamil friends here, you know.
What is going to be the national impact if this is the final verdict on the 4th of Kichona?
I I think basically >> [laughter] >> Congress lost its plot because it is Vijay really wanted the Congress to join him and it would have given a huge, >> [clears throat] >> you know, boost to the Congress even otherwise. I don't want the result to be correct also. I'm 100% sure that the Congress would have done extremely well with the in the company of TVK. The others would have joined this combine and the ADMK and the DMK would have been left in the lurch. So, you mean the Congress were asking for that. I want to call Shiva Roor in. Shiv, a massive twist in the tail if this is correct. The other polls Okay, this is Okay, here it is.
Justin Yeah, yeah.
Shiv's come right You have some Vijay dialogues as well? We've got a team upstairs which is packing its bags and heading to Chennai now. The team that we sent down to Chennai to report on the campaign [music] has said, "We're going down there in case these numbers come true." They're predicting, Shiv, a dead heat between the TVK and the DMK alliance when it comes to vote share.
Unlike the other pollsters who had the TVK in the early 20s, Pradeep Gupta is predicting 35% vote share for Vijay.
That is massive. ADMK at 23 with the BJP. And this is most important to notice that Pradeep Gupta is predicting [music] DMK plus 23 the same Yeah. DMK plus 23 parties, the entire alliance at 35, Vijay alone at 30.
>> The two other polls, Rahul, that have just come out and the numbers that they've given on Vijay The same question is going to be asked. What were the other polls saying, Shiv?
Which is 8 to 10, 15, etc. Which is What does Pradeep Gupta know that nobody else knows about >> I'll have him back in a few minutes from now. He's coming with us in a few minutes here. Rahul, can I just tell you what I feel? You know, when I went to Chennai, and I think this is also some sort of a Dalit uprising that a lot of people have been talking about. I don't know if the numbers will stand true, but if you go to all those slums where the deprived sections of the society live, there is a sense that they all want to vote for Vijay because they feel neither the DMK nor the AIADMK has really done anything for them. And this somehow seems to be a sense that you know, there is a sense of revolution that you know, we want to vote for this guy. If this is these numbers stand true, I I saw that sentiment, but I was not you know There was a lot of There was a lot of anecdotal you know, feedback that we were getting from the ground. I'll give you this kind of consolidated kind of sense.
When I went I was sitting in Tirunelveli and the waiter who was serving food breakfast in the morning came up and first was not talking. Then once he started talking Vasudha, he started saying sir now the family full of Congress voters. Our family are Congress voters, but me and my sister will vote for Vijay.
You know, so the younger lot wherever you went were voting in a sense the Vijay factor was there, but whether it's this powerful we don't know. Sanghvi we were saying that it will be West Bengal that will be the most exciting. If Vijay wins then Tamil Nadu is like a political blockbuster.
Yeah, if this poll is right. If the poll is right.
Let's not jump the gun on this one. Shiv Shiv you've got some Vijay dialogues.
>> I don't have any Vijay dialogues because I my persuasions are separate as far as Tamil Nadu are concerned and when it comes to Tamil Nadu fandom and and Vasudha will bear me out on this, the dialogues are sacred. So if you don't know them properly don't say that.
Yeah, I don't know If you don't know them properly don't say that.
What kind of Anil are you when you don't even know his dialogues?
Oh has the Anil story already happened?
Okay, so this is the big twist in the tail. Axis My India one of India's foremost pollsters is predicting that the TVK is ahead. At the lower end of the range the DMK alliance starts at 92, TVK starts at 98.
When was the last time you know, it happened with NTR for example in the first election? This is very difficult to do.
It Only example NTR.
NTR is not an example here because and I'll tell you why. NTR was a two-cornered fight between the Congress and NTR only. Here you have First time entry two rupees kilo rice and dal. Yeah, what about MGR himself?
No no, MGR was MGR was in the system. No no, MGR had an ally. But he had a whole other demographic that NTR had an ally. MGR was an ally of the Congress when he won in '77. It was just post emergency. NTR had no ally. He took on the Congress and won.
This is not a multi-starrer. Solo.
This is huge. If this comes out to be true there is a massive Vijay tsunami blowing across Tamil Nadu.
As I'm saying again and again, this is the Axis My India data. I'll have Pradeep Gupta with us in just a couple of minutes to explain these numbers.
This is not the NDTV poll. This is Pradeep Gupta and Axis My India. Tell Yes. I want to give one other cultural context of that you can never say about a place where they do Abhishek with milk of the film poster.
What?
No but that Andhra Tamil Nadu Karnataka >> [music] >> Like the first day first show for all Rajinikanth films.
No no, Andhra is Chiranjeevi and Pawan Kalyan and Andhra is bigger in terms of No but this is a big >> [laughter] >> you know, if these numbers hold and I think Views caveat is most important has to be overriding here would be if this holds out would be a big political success from the film world after a significant period of time. First we've had a bunch of middling performances.
unprecedented in Tamil Nadu for this kind of a huge success in one What is this comparable to in terms of people from the film industry? NTR NTR.
But Shiv I also think it's not just Vijay's popularity. The extent of anti-incumbency on ground was is massive was massive and there is a certain sense of frustration with both Dravidian parties. So if you talk to people, it's not just Vijay's popularity alone. That frustration combined with Vijay's popularity is a potent mix. Since Vasudha and I are reporting from Tamil Nadu, let's both look into the camera and say this we are talking on the basis of data given by Pradeep Gupta. If this poll is right he says okay. The caveat and the disclaimer holds overrides all all coverage of this.
These are the numbers that were put out by Axis My India. These are not NDTV exit poll figures.
No no, we don't want it.
No no, we don't do that on NDTV.
But but I want I a question I want to ask Narayan and Mr. Radhakrishnan I can bring in on this. Who has voted for Vijay if these numbers you know, held out? There was a core kind of women and youth base.
Where are these votes coming from? This goes to way beyond the women and youth story. This If if these are the numbers.
Breaking into caste networks. So the Vanniyar caste in the northern part of the state, the Thevars where the DMK has actually upped its game and you know, put OPS to break the ADMK's it's a fierce battle happening there. So somehow the TVK has penetrated that as well. And then of course where he does have the strength is in the urban centers, but that has to be maxed out to get these kind of numbers across the state. So I also have a question. You know, when there is so much anti-incumbency, why is it that an AIADMK could not capitalize on it? Why was TVK and Vijay thought of as a better alternative? Which is the personality vacuum in the AIADMK in the absence of somebody like Jayalalithaa. Look Edappadi Palaniswami has not been a leader.
experience. Vijay is an unknown quantity. No no, but you see you need to be a leader when you're a leader of opposition is different from when you have power. Jayalalithaa had given power in a sense, won it, given it to a you know, Edappadi Palaniswami. Compare this. Imagine this in a very simple Manmohan Singh Sonia Gandhi terms.
You needed somebody to win an election.
Manmohan Singh himself may not be the leader who can go out and win an election at the grassroots, right? So that same way Edappadi Palaniswami is a great organization man, a very very strong finance man, somebody who knows the grassroots of his area, but he Is he the pan personal pan Tamil Nadu personality who can be this challenger and who can offer himself as the solution? I don't know.
The data which shows where Vijay is pulling his votes from. There are two things that come out very clearly. One he's got women voting for him. He's got the youth voting for him. According to the Axis My India radio you're asking where is the number coming from? So the TVK has polled 38% of the women vote.
That's the maximum across all the formations in the election. The DMK alliance had about 34%. The TVK had 38% women vote. They've also picked male vote 32%, but the DMK there leads versus the TVK. The ADMK is at 26. So a large part of the support more than anywhere else comes from the women and it comes from urban Tamil Nadu. If you look at rural Tamil Nadu, TVK is weaker in rural Tamil Nadu. It's stronger in urban Tamil Nadu.
Over here now you see the TVK picking up 38% of the urban vote in Tamil Nadu. In the rural areas it has 33% of the vote.
So the DMK is a stronger formation in rural Tamil Nadu. Yes Shankar.
It is still better doing better than ADMK in the rural areas which is a statement on its own. No no, I think the larger point that you made Rahul as far as the women vote is concerned is that the TVK is destroying the AIADMK.
No no, this this this all the internal polls of the other parties had one data point which was circulating in Chennai when I was there.
Which is that the 30 to 45 age group youth and women are attracted to Vijay for some reason or the other Which is what everybody saw on the ground as well. all the problems and not not. And this 30 is very interesting because by then the 18 to you know, those those guys would have voted once for each of the or the same DMK or ADMK.
That's where the hope was built around that this is the group that might vote for But but Shiv you know, I would disagree with that youth factor because There is one very big data point in the Pradeep Gupta Axis My India data which is that 68% of the first time voters according to Pradeep and Axis have voted for the TVK.
68% Seven out of 10 voters in the 18 to 19 category voted for the TVK according to his poll.
59% of the 20 to 29 which is about 20% of the total voter base in Tamil Nadu voted for the TVK. 59%.
That is that's massive. Huh?
No, next group is 45. So it comes down.
As you go get older, TVK's popularity comes down.
Yeah yeah, this is really possible. I mean And Rahul there was a whole online ritual that he created on Insta that you get ready, you go pray to God and then you wear those you know, that white shirt and beige pants khaki pants and then you go and vote. What will happen to Jana Nayagan now which is going to come out after the results? Yes, I think it's going to [laughter] get Well, it's it's it's playing out in real life.
And he's done this without the film coming out. Maybe all of this actually helped him. Remember this is just >> not coming out certainly helped because it it drove things to a fever pitch.
There was a sympathy factor which we felt was somebody in the TVK told me that it's not just youth, families and vote banks will move to us and I agree with that certain aspects of it. There are families voting for him. One interesting point on the youth which As the Dravidian movements original context and values started to degrade or degenerate in terms of resonance with the younger members of any family. So the dad, the granddad, the mom, the grandmom would know about EVR and what they fought for and talk about get fired up when you talk about Hindi imposition and state autonomy. But do the youth care about that? And this is where I think the anti-incumbency increases as you go down the age age numbers. Rahul, can I can I just hazard something over here? If what Pradeep Gupta says is correct, if the data is correct, uh then there would be a similarity of the voting in Tamil Nadu with the vote and the voting in West Bengal.
Where the young voter or the new voter votes for a set of issues which are different, which are not the traditional ones which have been put out. So, they are voting for jobs, they are voting for a better life or whatever, and they are looking at it beyond the old agenda.
But I have a slightly fundamental question on this. generation The real generation. So, I have a more basic question on this. You know, Tamil Nadu is a well-governed state. It is not a state that was you know that was yearning for some kind of change.
Some would interpret if these numbers hold obviously you know this kind of a result for the TVK as a kind of you know a desperate electorate looking for a breakaway from the traditional dynamics of politics in the state, which Tamil Nadu doesn't strike me as a state like that.
>> Vasudha, I just quickly reach out to your TVK sources see what they're saying.
Let me one second statistically, I don't think Tamil Nadu now ranks as one of the best governed states. Number one. Number two again a point which is a well-governed state. Which would be common is corruption. No no corruption more than that corruption is also relative.
All governance is relative. You might be doing better than West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, whatever. But are you doing better than what you were doing in the previous 5 years and the 5 years before?
Shh shh shh.
The second point is the thuggery. No no no I hang on Shankar I think anti-incumbency was an has a traditionally been an extremely important factor in that state since '91. Yeah.
This time anti-incumbency against the DMK was high. The DMK was aware of it.
There was a sense of dynasty. There was a sense within the DMK itself of some kind of anti-incumbency.
>> And the emerging at the grassroots. It may not have manifested itself like what you've seen in '96 or 2011.
Uh but it was a real factor. This I would believe if it is true it would be a yearning for change and a departure from the old. Let me add context to that. You have is regarding the women factor.
There is a sense then there have been some incidents but again I wouldn't call them state-wide of challenges to women's security. I think that has been one big question that's got splashed out big time in the media as well. The second is like in other parts of India you have seen a massive influx of you know people coming in from every other state and that's again completely within the framework of natural labor mobilization.
But that has also has a backlash and I don't want to draw parallels to you know Trump's America but there's a sense of you know almost Tamilians are losing jobs that kind of a thing. And so the youth if you talk about them and why if this is true this poll is true why they could be flocking to a party like the TVK but then again as I said I don't believe that they're going in numbers large enough. But this poll is saying that 67% of those who identified as students have voted for the TVK according to the Axis My India poll. 42% of those who identified as the unemployed have voted for them. So, much lesser amongst the more skilled groups of people, much more amongst the youth, amongst the students. That's where he swept in a way that you ordinarily don't think is possible which means the large part seven out of 10 youth have gone and voted for it.
>> So, that thing here is Tamil Nadu has got the biggest projects in the last 5 years. Tata semiconductor this that. But all those are capital intensive projects not creating enough jobs. So, this verdict could also be interpreted as a four-letter word jobs. No it's more about you're right and somebody asked me this question when I was there in Tamil Nadu. They said you know when I was was arguing with the TVK saying how are you going to change like this. The the argument that was put forth to me by the senior TVK leader was that sir in Nepal there is a Gen Z movement in Sri Lanka there is a Gen Z movement. Why can't there be a Gen Z movement within the democratic framework in India? Why do you see Vijay as a political party? Why don't you see him as this [music] Gen Z force wanting to change >> I would still contend I would just contend to close the loop on this thought that you know a vote for Vijay who very glaringly didn't take a stand on many issues you know didn't have policy documents didn't have clear-cut answers to many important you know state and national level issues.
If the youth have voted for him in this manner you know some would interpret such large numbers if they hold true as almost a kind of yielding to a you know a semi-anarchical kind of No it's a Gen Z revolution in Tamil Nadu if this is correct. I want to tell our viewers Pradeep Gupta is tuning in. He's just logging in in a moment. We'll have him to try and explain these numbers.
What Tamil Nadu has seen is saying it. The other pollsters who've said it are basically calling it for the DMK alliance. They're saying the DMK is ahead the ADMK same thing TVK third.
They've gone along a very conventional pattern. Pradeep Gupta is being patched through live on NDTV in just a few seconds from now. He will explain these numbers. Okay, here he is. Pradeep Gupta promised that there'd be some excitement there'd be some surprise.
You've got people just gobsmacked wondering what are you drinking? What are you picking up from Tamil Nadu which nobody else did?
If you go right now to Vijay's house to the TVK they'll garland you.
>> [laughter] >> They'll think you are the superstar.
What happened here?
That sorry Rahul Now this is the reality which I kept on saying. There is a super excitement. But what do you see is you must see and tell your viewers that there is another side of the story in my numbers.
There is a chance full chance that the DMK plus can secure 110 seats and TVK 98 seats. So, there is another possibility in my lower and upper range for both the parties.
No but what is very clear is that you're predicting that the TVK will do three times as well if not four times as well as any other pollster. So, explain that whether it ends up at 120 on an 10 is of lesser significance than the fact that you've picked up a massive Vijay sweep in Tamil Nadu. What explains that?
So, two very big demographic playing role here. One is the female which is voting bulk in number 38% to among the female for TVK and 32 among the male. 32 versus six point gaps. One.
Two, the youth.
When I say youth I'm referring to age group of 18 to 39 contributes 42% of the total voting population.
42% which is almost 50%. There Vijay is sweeping and the rest 40 plus population they are not he's not doing so good. But the kind of consolidation and the kind of impact which is creating among these and particularly the 18 to 19 first time voter and 20 to 30 group Veda has a question for you. Veda. Pradeep, do you have specific numbers for the DMK because you what you're giving DMK plus upper end of 110.
Do you have specific for the DMK how much the DMK will have? How short of a majority mark if your projection comes through at the upper end? Let's say they get 110 as an alliance. How much will the DMK get?
So, give me some time Veda. My office is doing that number printing as I told you this is not easy. Also region-wise I will give you what's happening.
Region-wise also I will give party-wise also I will give vote share and seat share. But all I can tell you is that among the regions now I'm talking about the regions. Yeah.
Chennai in Chennai particular city TVK is doing extraordinarily well.
Expected. Southern Tamil Nadu Southern Tamil Nadu TVK is doing very good. Yeah.
Trichy Trichy and Northern Tamil Nadu DMK is doing good. Okay. In Western Tamil Nadu all three is doing good. Not expected line like AIDMK used to do phenomenally good always in Western Tamil Nadu. This time it is splitting among three. So, all three are doing good. Kaveri delta and Trichy region DMK is doing very So, I want to show our viewers the age-wise break up and we have Pradeep he can explain that to us.
What we are seeing ladies and gentlemen is quite unprecedented.
Because you've seen a Gen Z revolution of sorts. A young people's revolution of sorts in favor of the TMK according to the Axis My India and I'm making this clear again and again. If he gets it right Pradeep Gupta is the superstar. If he gets us gets it wrong don't blame us please. Remember that.
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