Tropical Depression Two Stirs Amid Development In The Gulf Of America

[00:00:00]update in. Let's bring in Fox Weather hurricane specialist Brian Norcross.

[00:00:04]Brian, uh new updates in. Haven't even seen the uh the verbiage yet, but I would assume uh there's nothing to to back up an upgrade here. There's no data to support that this has gotten any stronger, >> right? Two things. One is the hurricane hunters went out there and could not find winds over 35 miles hour. Most of the winds were less than that, actually.

[00:00:27]And also the center of the storm doesn't have any thunderstorms around it. It's being they're being blown to the south and that's because of the strong upper level winds that are just pushing on the storm. So the environment is hostile.

[00:00:42]This is if it does make it to a 40 mph or 45 mph tropical storm, it's it's probably going to be a short-lived thing. It's going to be mostly just the fringe effects of this system. Another sloppy kind of system in an unconducive environment uh to strengthening. But here we go. 35 mph is the 5:00 p.m.

[00:01:07]update. 3 mph to the north. It's just kind of meandering and drifting as you'll see in just one moment. Pressure is down a little bit. 105 millibars certainly getting close to supporting a tropical storm. So, we'll keep an eye out for what's going to happen here. You know, this is a kind of bit of an arbitrary level. 40 miles per hour where we name it. So, it wouldn't take a whole lot. The upper level winds led up for just a moment and there it goes. But if you look at the flow of these clouds, what catches your eye? They kind of move in that way. That's those upper level winds tilting the storm, pushing the anything that gets tall away from the center. All right. Now, we can see the center. Look at it here. There it is spinning around right there. See it right in there. Uh so, uh here's the thunderstorm complex that's sort of related to the center. And in fact, you can kind of see a band trying to form here. Well, if that band can wrap around a little bit more, uh then we might have a tropical storm. But it's going to it's going to have to get a little bit lucky or it's going to have to just be a a pause in the upper level winds or maybe a little bit time. It's right on the edge. So whether we get a name storm or not really isn't relevant to the effects on uh land here because the environment is going to continue to be hostile on a continuing basis. Now we do have outer bands here. Look at these outer bands over Florida. That's with the heating of the day over the land and they're going to continue for a while and some of that is actually pushing a little bit north.

[00:02:40]Let's look at the radar here. You can see there's a lot of dry air involved in this system. So, bands of dry air coming up here in amongst the bands of pretty good thunderstorms. There's a good one there heading from Ocala up to Gainesville looks like up I75. But, uh, this combination of dry air mixed in with this tropical moisture is just typical of a storm that does not have a a really conducive environment to intensify. Look at the center over there and right around it there's essentially nothing. Few showers, that's it. These are the big thunderstorms down to the south. They don't look like much, but that's because they're kind of out of radar range. The the bands are shoving up into Georgia on up I75 up to Albany, Valdasta, past Dothan into Alabama. So, this is an expansive system. That's another reason it's going to have a hard time intensifying very much because it's got moving so much air that you have to pull that in together. Takes a lot of energy and probably not uh probably doesn't have the environment to do that.

[00:03:45]All right, let's take a look at the cone here. It's very similar to the previous cone except maybe a little bit farther north. And the reason for that is that a number of the models kind of take this thing inland up in here somewhere or meander it inland in some fashion. your mind think, "Oh no, that's going to be a landfall of some kind." Well, actually, that's probably good news. If it were to do that, would it wouldn't make any difference. You would never even know the thing was making landfall, especially because all the weather is going to be kind of spread out from it and that would just end this uh sooner, kind of put it out of its misery sooner.

[00:04:19]So the timing is maybe by tomorrow actually maybe overnight tonight or in the morning and then by tomorrow afternoon we have 45 mph storm maybe makes it a 50 on Wednesday. Then we get the upper level winds really get more intense blowing over it like this. So the thinking is maybe starting a weakening process. Maybe it's interacting with land by then. Uh so weakening some and then moving on ahead.

[00:04:47]So late Wednesday, maybe making landfall in in Louisiana if it doesn't take the right side of the cone and bump into the Gulf Coast first and then just weakening. And by the time it gets over here to Texas or even southwestern Louisiana, there is not much that is expected to continue with this storm.

[00:05:06]Probably just remnants going that far off to the west. So there are the computer models. Now this is all of them that we look at, but we don't look at them individually. We look at the average and what you notice here is they're all generally going down the cone but some are coming up here and bumping into land and some are staying south. And when we take the average of those which by far is the uh most uh consistently accurate way to look at it.

[00:05:34]What do we see here? We see the yellow.

[00:05:36]That's the consensus. That's the average of all those models you saw. And I put the Google model on here because that's been so good. essentially saying the same thing coming into Louisiana, weakening and just dying out here and then really nothing showing up in Texas.

[00:05:51]That's what the models are saying. When we look under the hood of those single lines, it tells us how much how much uncertainty there is in each model. If you look at the Google model, not much.

[00:06:02]The idea is it comes in Louisiana and kind of dies out. the uh European model is all squirly up here or a few go over here, but it basically has the same idea that this isn't going to get very far on late Wednesday into Thursday into Louisiana. It's it may go ashore somewhere, but not as a very strong storm. So, the idea is it kind of dies out in this general area here. The GFS keeps a slight chance of it going over toward Texas, but not much. So the idea is we feel like this is most likely to die out somewhere between say Mississippi and uh Louisiana. There's the certainty area and then if you're in Texas, I wouldn't worry. You may get the little remnant of this thing. That would be about it. Ian?

[00:06:53]>> Yeah, Brian. It kind of feels like the uh the western half of that forecast cone is uh is a little TBD and it's it's TBD for all the reasons that you told us about in the short term. So, we watch and we wait for what may become our second name storm of the season and the eventual impacts. That's Fox Weather hurricane specialist Brian Norcross.

[00:07:14]Ryan, thank you.