5.9.26: LIVE Mother's Day Forecast Update

Added: 2026-05-11

[00:00:00]Oh, heat, heat.

[00:00:28]Heat.

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[00:01:10]N down.

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[00:01:41]Heat. Heat.

[00:02:26]Well, good evening everybody. Kevin Crouch here with South Metro Weather and I want to talk a little bit about the forecast for tomorrow because we do have storms uh that are on the way. Now, I know that it's Mother's Day. I know that it's really unfortunate timing um for the storms to be rolling in and for especially for us to have a risk of severe weather. Unfortunately, there's not a whole lot I can do. There's nothing happening in our area, but there is up north. And uh one of the things that I've been sort of watching on these uh these models for this evening or rather really overnight into early tomorrow morning is that some of those do show these storms uh making their way into North Texas. Now whether or not they'll actually make it down here and whether or not they'll uh clip our area is kind of up in the air uh to be honest with you. And uh so early tomorrow morning we might have storms in the area. I don't expect those to be severe when they move through, but I do think um let's see. I do think that um we will probably see, let me see here. Yeah, we'll probably see those at very least in East Texas.

[00:03:48]Um, hold on just one moment here.

[00:04:04]Got a text message I needed to respond to there. Um, also if you're in the chat, the the program is showing a new chat dock here. So, um, if you're in the chat, let's do this. if you'll put uh where you're watching from tonight. Um and there we go. Okay, so it's work.

[00:04:20]It's working now. It for a minute it was um it was really it looked odd. It looked different there and I don't think it notified me that it was going to update that. Um so we do have storms that you know we will have to watch these uh to see if they'll clip our area. I I'll go ahead and just we'll take a quick peek at the model. Now, I know um everybody wants to know the timing of the storms in the morning and we will get there, but just in terms of these possible overnight early morning storms, I just kind of want to show you what the models are showing. So, they've kind of gone back and forth on these early morning storms.

[00:05:03]This is showing 4:00 a.m. Um, and so, you know, it it has um it has definitely gone back and forth on whether some of those will clip our area. Uh, if I show the let's see, that's the zero Z. If I show the model before that, um, you can see in in the most recent one, they they miss us, but then, you know, they get a little closer maybe in that model. uh prior to that um you know they got a little closer. So it's kind of been back and forth on whether the Oh, hello.

[00:05:39]Let's get that off of there. Uh whether the storms that are in Oklahoma right now will impact our area. So that's early morning.

[00:05:46]The storms that we're really concerned about and show the greatest chance of severe weather are expected tomorrow afternoon. We will have a cold front coming in and while the far end of that cold front looks great, we unfortunately will be dealing with severe weather uh at least possible with those storms that come through. Uh so we will get right to that information. I'm just going to take this uh we'll take the little live banner off of there and that clock too just so you can see that that graphic. I haven't adjusted those things yet.

[00:06:24]But this is what we have. So we have a marginal risk uh or we had had a marginal risk a couple days ago that's been upgraded now to a enhanced risk of severe weather that includes all of our area. In fact, this has kind of been expanded a little bit. Um the way that this has been made so broad makes me wonder if they're contemplating a moderate risk. I don't know that that's necessary. Uh, but they they may try to do that. I think I've seen more moderate risks this season from the Storm Prediction Center than I've seen in every previous season combined. I mean, they have really been just handing them out. And this being a holiday, I have seen the Storm Prediction Center sometimes step up their uh their messaging a little bit because it's a holiday. people have plans and they almost want to over uh over overwarn almost or over um alert if you will and that can be I guess beneficial sometimes sometimes not. So just kind of one of those things that that could be going on there. Uh but we do have the enhanced risk of severe weather. And what I'll tell you, we'll go ahead and go over to the next um screen here. This is where we kind of break everything down. It is an enhanced risk. It's mostly for damaging wind and large hail. Um now, as far as the kind of the modalities of this, it looks like this could be a little bit of a one-two punch. Um and really the way this is all going to line up will be interesting as well. Uh, and I'll show you this in the models here here in a moment, but uh, it looks like we could have some some supercells earlier in the afternoon and then later in the evening and nighttime hours have a a more linear complex come through.

[00:08:17]So, if we get more supercells, that includes a higher risk of large hail, possibly a few uh tornadoes as well, um, and you know, some pockets of of damaging downburst winds. But when we get that linear complex, that gives us a greater risk of the uh more widespread damaging winds and those pockets of large hail. So, um just there are different things that we're kind of watching for here and we're definitely looking at um we're definitely looking at the uh the potential for a pretty broad area of severe weather. I mean, you saw that risk. Uh, but I don't expect tomorrow to be a severe weather outbreak. The the word outbreak has been that's been the word of the year so far. Uh, and you know, it's a buzzword. People um show their people want you to click on their stuff, right? They want you to click it and share it so they get money. Uh, but you know, the the word outbreak, I think, has been greatly overused. Uh, and I'm not really expecting that so much. I think uh if I think we will probably be included in a severe thunderstorm watch by the early afternoon hours and once those once those are popping up. It just even from the Storm Prediction Center, this just does not look like a big tornado event.

[00:09:40]Damaging winds, large hail, those are the primary concerns for this area. So I I we're going to try something new with the model here and uh I want to see how this goes. Um, and uh, we will we will give this a go. So, what what we're going to do is I'm going to go through um, I'm going to go through the the, you know, frame by frame and then we will go through a just a loop and leave the loop there for all of the people that inevitably come in late and say, "Hey, can you go back through that?" We're just going to let it roll and I'll take questions from there. So, this is 1:00 tomorrow. storms most likely north of us, but by the time we get to 2:00, we may have those as far south as the metroplex. And then 3 to 4:00 is really the time period where I expect the more intense, possibly severe storms uh to begin or at least to be intensifying.

[00:10:34]That's as we get into that peak heating and five six. Now remember, as I always say, this does not mean that there's going to be a severe storm right over, you know, Bossi County at this point in time. This is all generalization. So don't get so terrified of, oh, it's going to be exactly there at exactly that time. This is all generalizing here, folks. Uh that's 7:00, 8, and 9. And so what you see to the west here is kind of this and there are little segments there, but you see this linear complex. That's part of the reason that this is so broad is because different parts of that enhanced risk may see different modalities in terms of severe weather. So with that in mind, that's part of the reason that there's such a broad area and that's why the concern is greatest for large hail, especially with those supercells at the very beginning of this event and then later after that uh we get this complex.

[00:11:32]This is like October 20th of 2019. I'm not now I know that produced a tornado in the Midlotheian area. I don't think it necessarily compares in terms of the tornado threat, but the way that we saw the supercells first, the more isolated storms first, and then we got kind of a break there. I don't expect much of a break with this, but we did get a break there before we saw that linear complex with those widespread damaging winds come through. So, if you remember that setup, this may be similar, but again, it's going to be closer together. So, you know, if anything, that uh line may be pushing those uh supercells out of here. So, that's 10:00, 11, and 12. So, by midnight, if this timing holds, we will have more rain as we might have a cold pull kind of setting up behind this uh you know, the the the warm air that is now riding above the cold front, above the cooler air, and making some elevated showers and storms behind that leading line. But at this point by midnight, the heaviest of this, the severe weather is likely to our east and southeast. So we may have more rain that follows it, but at least the most intense activity is likely out of our area by that time. But that's 1:00 a.m.

[00:12:46]2 and 3 and 4 and uh should be 4:00 a.m.

[00:12:50]there. I guess it's stuck on the little clock there stuck on 3:00 a.m. But that's where we will see uh this stuff moving out. So by Monday morning, it's out of here. And Monday actually looks quite nice in terms of that forecast.

[00:13:04]So, we will see what happens. But here's the loop. I'm just going to leave this up here because I know there's always folks that jump in too late uh to see kind of the walkthrough and you can just view it here. Uh so, if you want to throw any questions about tomorrow in the chat, I'll be happy to answer those.

[00:13:22]U I'm just going to leave leave that loop up there uh so that those folks who might be getting in late u can uh can you know review that going back I don't think I've seen questions yet uh Aaron uh so yeah so you'll be driving home in the morning that'll be good that'll be good because uh uh you'll be at least ahead of it I think now I well I say that you're actually you have storms in Oklahoma right now. Um that may very well uh and let me let me kind of show that.

[00:14:01]Um there we go. There's that loop going again. But you do have storms there in Oklahoma that tonight. I'm not sure where you're located, but those may affect you uh you know later in the morning.

[00:14:16]Uh Terry, yes, still planning to go to uh the family gathering there.

[00:14:25]Uh Jana, wind to rain totals, that's really tough. And I I'm glad you reminded me because um I I there may be a flooding concern because if we get some of these supercells ahead of this line and then ultimately the line comes through and we got more rain behind that. Some places could get excessive rain. Uh so there could be a little bit of a flood concern. Um Vicki, I I cannot slow the loop down. I'm sorry. Um I you know I have I had a it was going between too fast and too slow and this was kind of the happy medium that I found. Um so I apologize if this is too fast, you know, moving too fast for anybody. Um uh Vicki, you're asking what will the morning will the morning be clear? We were looking at the the storms in Oklahoma and the possibility of some of those clipping our area early tomorrow morning. I think that's probably out of here by sunrise, but um there could be some early morning showers and thunderstorms in the area, but whether they actually affect us doesn't seem likely, but I can't totally rule out that we might get clipped by some showers and storms in the morning, but not likely to be severe. Uh Debbie flying out of left field at 11:00 a.m. I the the Yeah, it should be done should be gone out of here by then.

[00:15:46]Uh Nate Burnbatch, uh what about South Lake tonight? Um I don't expect anything tonight. Yeah, and it looks like you're running your own weather page, so hopefully um I I I mean, South Lake is farther out of my area, so I I assume you're trying to gather data for for that, but uh I I don't Yeah, I don't see anything happening in the Metroplex tonight.

[00:16:09]Uh yeah, over um overnight. Uh yeah, I mean overnight everything stays or at least tonight uh everything stays in Oklahoma. Early tomorrow morning we might get clipped by some storms. Uh Ethan Williams watching in Waco from the back of an ambulance. Well, I I appreciate uh that you're out there working, Ethan. Hopefully you get to see your mom tomorrow. If you do, tell her I said hello. I love her. Uh and uh Ethan Williams jumping in the chat here from Waco is my childhood best friend. Uh spent a good number of my childhood uh years with him.

[00:16:42]Um, let's see. Graduation is at noon tomorrow. Uh, it looks like it's probably after Well, I mean, if you're in and in Denton, um, keep keep an eye on radar for sure. Um, Aaron, storms out of storms will be out of here before sunrise on Monday. Monday looks beautiful.

[00:17:05]Kelly, the timeline is looping right there. So you can just watch the uh the the loop will show you what the timeline looks like. That's going from you know 2 o'clock tomorrow I think 1:00 tomorrow afternoon through early the following morning.

[00:17:21]Ryan, so based off your model, is it going to squall line is it is it going to squall line out before it hits the metro? Uh well that's what we were talking about. I mean, it looks honestly like um it it looks to me like we may have some supercells at first, but then a line likely comes through and that squall line, most of that could stay south of us just kind of depending on how things line up. Uh so, you know, there will be some variation there.

[00:17:51]Uh Christa Hail is definitely possible.

[00:17:56]Ferris is hosting a baseball tournament tomorrow. Think it will be good. Well, not probably not after about 2 to 3:00.

[00:18:02]Uh we will have storms in the area. So that's unfortunately that will be um you know that will be the the potential. Um David Bond, sorry I just logged in. Uh what is the timeline for the rough stuff? The timeline is covered by ads on my app. Uh well that's yeah that's that's weather apps for you but um the timeline is looping right in front of you so it's it's playing right now. Uh Brandon, how's the wind going to be?

[00:18:34]Well, we could see winds of 60 plus miles hour in the most intense storms.

[00:18:38]That's your severe weather criteria. 60 and above. I would say right now, you know, 60 to 70 mph winds are probably more likely in these storms. Um, I can't rule out a storm getting higher than that, especially if we get one of these supercells through here, but I would say 60 to 70 mph is the more likely scenario from those severe storms.

[00:19:03]Uh, Marca, please explain the linear storm. Yeah, so Marca, that's that's what we're talking about when we say a squall line or a linear complex. That's a a a solid line of storms as opposed to those isolated storms. So a a linear complex is a is a line of storms that moves through. Then you have your cellular complex or your your your you know cellular storms, your isolated cells, which is those isolated storms that go through. So that's the difference there.

[00:19:39]And uh thank you uh thank you Bridget for the Venmo. Greatly appreciated there. Uh Emily, the timing is looping right there. So you can uh just right there on the screen uh that is the model, the HRR model, that high resolution rapid refresh uh that is showing those storms moving through.

[00:19:59]Uh Lori asking, "We're supposed to go out for dinner at Mother's Day in Fort Worth at 5:00 p.m. Should we cancel?" I look, I don't ever tell you whether you should cancel or not, but I will tell you that severe weather will be possible during that time in Fort Worth. Brandon, the tornado threat is low but not zero.

[00:20:16]Um it you know the the the window for tornadoes is probably going to be fairly um small tomorrow. If we get any of those supercell thunderstorms, which there may be one or two that those would bring the higher tornado threat, not necessarily a high one, but that the tornado threat would be greater with those as opposed to if we get that line of storms later in the evening.

[00:20:46]Okay, TJ are asking, uh, if they have an enhanced risk, does that mean intensity or could you have several storms with 60 mph winds and quarter size hail, which by definition would be severe, or is it more about intensity? Okay, so you're you're asking if the enhanced risk, and that's that's a good question. Um because the Storm Prediction Center has actually added to and I'm not going to I'm not going to get into a whole seminar on this because it would take a whole evening to explain everything the Storm Prediction Center has going on now. Um but it's it's your enhanced risk and where it goes from marginal to slight to enhanced. really the two things that make the biggest difference um is that's where you're talking about um sorry I was just watching something come over from the SPC. Um that's where you're talking about greater confidence in severe weather. Also how widespread it's going to be. Those are kind of the two um factors that go into whether it's a marginal slight or um enhanced or or elsewhere. Um and so if it's going to be greater confidence in more widespread severe weather, that's where you get into your higher, your enhanced, your moderate, your high. Um if it's less confidence and and more isolated severe weather, that's your slight to marginal.

[00:22:09]And there actually TJ if if you go look there is um a table that will explain those criteria to you in more detail that the National Weather Service has put out in the past. So if you just you know if you Google Storm Prediction Center um severe weather threats or risk or something like that uh that table should come up and it'll explain each one. But it's generally uh greater confidence and greater um you know more or less widespread severe weather that determines that.

[00:22:38]Ryan Milin asking all of the purple based on the HRR is that just heavy rain or hail or both? It's not specifically hail. It is heavier precipitation but it's not strictly hail. You can have the pink and not have hail in that. U now when you see the black on there generally that's hail. that's, you know, you're you're getting a heavy enough precipitation, right, to where that's going to be um that's going to be a higher hill threat. So, um but it doesn't specifically mean that on the radar. That's just much heavier precipitation.

[00:23:24]And of course, you know, during these storms tomorrow, we will bring severe weather coverage. Um, I will ensure that we all are that you all are informed.

[00:23:34]Um, of course, I'll be, you know, going to church and Mother's Day festivities and those kinds of things. Uh, but I will of course be available um during that time should severe weather rear its ugly head. And I will keep you all informed. And you know, holidays are when I like severe weather the least. Not that I like it per se, but I really can't stand when severe weather happens on holidays because there's people that are from out of town that don't that may not necessarily have a place to uh you know handle severe weather uh or or take shelter from it.

[00:24:08]Um you've got people that are out celebrating. They're not prepared for it. People are generally not paying much attention to the weather in that situation. And I completely understand that. Uh but uh tomorrow is just one of those days. And again, I think this is why the Storm Prediction Center sometimes pushes higher severe weather risks during holidays because they're trying to over alert to make sure people are paying attention. Um, not always the best thing, but that's probably the rationale. Um, SJ, not sure if you responded in your post. I need a good carport guy in Wakahhatchee. SJ, I I didn't have time to respond to you because I was preparing for this live stream. Uh, but I I I don't um I you know I don't think I have a sponsor that that supports me that builds carports.

[00:24:53]Um so I can't make a re recommendation just based on that. But um I you know maybe somebody in the chat can do that or or uh I'm sure if you post it in any local groups you'll probably get a lot of recommendations.

[00:25:07]Uh Caitlyn, is this a tornado threat or hail or rain? Uh yeah. I mean, we're we're talking about um the the primary threats will be large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is low, but it's not zero.

[00:25:23]Ryan, uh is it likely we'll see the enhanced shift farther west southwest?

[00:25:28]Uh I mean, it's possible. We can see those um we can always, you know, see those those upgrades. Um I think it's very possible they'll try to throw a moderate risk out there. Not sure it's warranted, but again, they're probably trying to over alert uh for the holiday.

[00:25:45]Uh but I I I think that you're you're I mean, it could be pushed. I think if anything, it would be pushed farther east and southeast. I think just judging by the motion of the storm, that's if there's any updates, that's probably where they would go. Don't know that for sure, but I think that's u generally what we would probably see.

[00:26:10]Yeah, Britney, I would definitely recommend indoor plans tomorrow. Um, I think that that's I think that's the best possible option. Uh, looks like we did get uh a car ports recommendation there in the chat. So, hopefully uh SJ, you're watching uh and can grab that.

[00:26:25]So, I think that's going to be about it.

[00:26:28]Thank you so much for tuning in. I'm going to post this loop on the page here shortly uh so that we can kind of share that uh out among the the uh the masses, you know. Um Sierra supposed to be driving from Midlotheian to Tyler tomorrow afternoon evening.

[00:26:47]Best to say stay home. I'm gathering Sierra. Again, I don't tell you what to do uh because I don't want to be the person you told me to. I'm not going to be that guy. But I will tell you that severe weather is definitely possible during that time.

[00:26:59]um you're going east, so you're going, you know, you're not going in the direction of the higher severe weather risk necessarily. Um but uh you know, it's very possible. So that's that's your own judgment, right? That that's just you know, that's up to what some people have no problem driving in storms, some people don't want to do it.

[00:27:21]So uh either way though, you will want to stay safe. Ryan asking if they do a moderate, where do you think they'll throw it? West of the metro. I I Ryan, I'm not sure. Um, it would be inside of the enhanced risk. I I can't predict what the storm prediction center is going to do. Uh, but, you know, it would be probably in the center of that. I I I can't tell you specifically. It's going to be here. It's going to be there. Um, it's it would be within that area. Yeah, I mean if you look back at past uh moderate risks when they've done that, it's, you know, they're it's going to be much of the time it's generally the same shape of the enhanced risk, just smaller within that area. So, it's likely just to be in the center of of that area. So, uh wish I could be more helpful there, but you know, I I don't really have much much more guidance than that. Uh but thank you so much for tuning in. I do want to mention uh that uh one of our I I think my I had a problem with this before too. Uh the opening screen um did not include Bisonu built gutters and uh so my apologies to uh to them. It it defaulted back to the old one, but Bisonu built Gutters did just join us recently and they are coming out to do gutters on my house this week. Much much needed. Um, and uh, hopefully we can get rid of the bees. I I've not gotten a call back on somebody, you know, willing to come out and get those bees. Uh, and I love bees. I respect them. I I really love to watch them work. I just don't really want them on my house when they need to put gutters on it. So, uh, thank you so much for tuning in. We will keep you updated tomorrow, uh, on Mother's Day. Happy Mother's Day to all the moms that are out there. And, uh, again, stay tuned. We will keep you updated as more May severe weather moves into North Central Texas.