DayWeather Plus 6-19-26

[00:00:00]Hello everybody, I'm Dayweather Meteorologist Don Day with your Dayweather Plus Weather Intelligence Report for this Friday, June 19th. What we're going to do is take a look at some rain chances on the plains here over the next week. Also, we're going to take a look at the IRI model, which uses the Pacific sea state, whether it's El Niño or La Niña or somewhere in between, and the model tries to predict temperature and precipitation based on what's going on in the Pacific. It doesn't take everything into account, so you have to take the model with a grain of salt, but it is showing interesting. Then Don Wattsel is going to have a latest drought monitor update as well as year-to-date precipitation totals, which aren't great as we well know. Now, over the next week, we're somewhat encouraged that east of the Continental Divide, out into the plains, it's going to get wet again. We have a good subtropical feed coming up from the south. It's not getting west of the divide, very dry west of the divide. You'll notice a sharp very sharp boundary here between the dry air west of the divide and the moisture east of the divide. What the What we're seeing here between now and next Saturday are thunderstorms initiating on the east slopes of the Rockies, then moving east-southeast in the late afternoon, evening, and night time hours, running into that deeper moisture coming up into here. So, the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and maybe maybe far eastern Montana through eastern Wyoming and eastern Colorado could get into the mix again. But the further west you go, the drier it is. So, this is over the next week. Longer term, what I'm going to show you is the IRI model that just came out that goes in 3-month chunks. Green means wet, blue is well, white means average, yellow-brown colors mean dry.

[00:01:48]July through September, the IRI model is showing a big influx of moisture where it's very dry right now. So, this is a little suspect. However, if we do see El Nino kick in and we do see the jet stream finally retreating more north, this 3-month period west of the divide is quite wet. Notice a little patch of green here where the drought is really bad right now and drier in the upper Midwest.

[00:02:17]If we move over a month, go through August, September, October, look how wet it is in the southwestern United States, spreading near the Rockies and adjacent plains. So, this is quite encouraging if the El Nino can become more of a factor. Right now though, it's had a hard time getting going. And look how wet it gets into the fall.

[00:02:38]Then you go into the winter, very wet across the deep south, but notice we have fingers of moisture getting further north where we have these drought conditions. This dry patch is to be expected if the El Nino's going to be as strong as it's going to be because this is one area historically that's drier.

[00:02:56]Temperature-wise, this model has a very, very warm bias. But notice, as we go through the summer months, the middle part of the country is actually cool.

[00:03:06]Stays that way all the way in the fall and winter relative to average, it's coolest in the south and that's because of the precipitation. We'll take a look at this next update next month, but this is encouraging, but it's really biased on El Nino starting to become more of a dominant factor, but it's fighting a battle right now. And if you look at the idealized El Nino precipitation patterns, it's exactly what the model wants to show.

[00:03:34]Will it come to fruition? We're going to see. Historically, moderate El Ninos give different results. We're going to be in a strong El Nino, but moderate El Ninos have had wet years and dry years if you look at what's happened historically. Now, where we're going to be is more into the strong El Nino category because we're at 1.5 approaching that right now. And you can see there's tongues of moisture that do come up historically if you look at a very strong El Nino which where we're headed, notice that we do have some areas of wetness, but we also have years like '97, '98 that weren't as wet.

[00:04:17]2015 and 16 which this year is showing some opportunities to maybe be like this year.

[00:04:25]The what I want to point out here is that every El Nino is different and you get different results. It does not necessarily mean it's going to be wet. I think I I think the perception is that El Ninos are always wet for part of the western high plains and Rockies. Yes, in some years, but not other years because there are other factors. Like this year a big factor is what's going on in the higher latitudes. Another model to show you which is reflecting what the IRI model is reflecting. This is the 45-day forecast that goes through August 4th.

[00:04:57]What it's predicting is what the IRI model is predicting. Moisture comes in west of the divide then spreads out east. Now, it's drier in the Midwest.

[00:05:07]This is from the European model. I have to tell you I don't think I'm sold on this solution. I I would be ecstatic if it is correct. The one thing that supports it is that it does go along with the El Nino developing, but the strong northerly jet stream we've been having in the month of June and it looks like going into early July is cutting the head off of this. But it's just something that we're going to have to see. So, the models are encouraging, but whether or not they come to fruition, we're just going to have to take it one week at a time. Up next, Don Watzel.

[00:05:41]>> Thanks, Don. Well, unfortunately, it is a topic that is not going to go away.

[00:05:45]The ongoing drought across the continental United States. The latest drought monitor map was released on Thursday, June 18th, based on the latest data that was compiled on Tuesday, June 16th. And as you can see, a lot of the country, especially the central and western United States, still showing a lot of oranges, dark oranges, red, and maroon colors, showing a lot of extreme and even severe drought conditions in these areas. Over the Missouri Valley, through the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and the northern Middle Atlantic, much improved and no drought conditions or abnormally dry. As we take a look at the drought conditions based on percent area today compared to 1 year ago, last year, 53% of the country reporting no drought at all. Fast forward 12 months, that has already eroded to about a quarter of the country. And as you look at all the different drought categories, abnormally dry, moderate, severe, extreme, and exceptional, all of the numbers are pretty much trending in the wrong direction. If you want to look at it graphically, this is what the drought monitor map looked like last year at this time, released on Thursday, June 19th. As we continue to talk about this topic, we will focus today on the heavy hit areas around Wyoming, Nebraska, and South Dakota in the Northern High Plains. We'll break each down percentage-wise on what the drought looks like in each of these three states, starting with Wyoming. Based on the latest drought conditions, 41% showing extreme drought as of the uh monitor that was released this week, another 42% reporting severe drought conditions. Compared to last year at this time, we still had about 40% of the country reporting moderate drought, but another 36% showing no drought at all.

[00:07:36]Looking at Nebraska, 43% suffering under extreme drought conditions with another 7% under exceptional drought. The other half of the state either at severe or moderate drought with another 15% showing abnormally dry conditions and 10% kind of carrying the load for the entire corn Husker state. Last year at this time, still dry. Half the country though was under moderate drought conditions with another quarter showing abnormally dry. South Dakota doing a little bit better or at least their percentages are spaced out a little bit more. We have 11% of the state showing extreme drought conditions based on the latest monitor. Another 33% showing abnormally dry, 12% reporting no drought at all. This is the latest map for 2026.

[00:08:25]Last year at this time, we had 42% abnormally dry and 30% showing much improved or no drought conditions at all. Looking at the total precipitation now, year-to-date from January through the end of May. This is courtesy of NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. Pretty parched across the desert Southwest, Central and Northern Rockies, and high plains. Very limited moisture being exacerbated by the snow drought that we had for this past winter season. As you extend eastward through the Southern High Plains, the Ark-La-Tex up to the Missouri Valley, and portions of the Appalachians, doing better of course. A lot of areas reporting about 12 to 24 inches of precip with pockets of higher amounts, 24 or more, especially in the far south. Zeroing in again in our three states, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, pretty much evened out the data, 3 to 6 inches of precip around the Mount Rushmore state. Again, year-to-date precip as of January through May, and a lot of that amount is showing up in Nebraska as well with higher amounts, about 6 to 12 inches in the east-central part of the state, much drier over the southwest and panhandle. This area reporting about 1 to 3 in of measurable precip, which does extend to portions of east central Wyoming east of the I-25 corridor.

[00:09:51]Elsewhere, as you get into the mountain areas of Wyoming, we did get some recovery from the very late snowfall that we had during the month of May. The higher terrain of the snowy and Sierra Madres, as well as the Wind Rivers and Tetons showing precipitation amounts year-to-date through the end of May, generally around a 3 to 6 or up to 12 to 24 in.

[00:10:14]Another source of this information, not exactly a direct comparison, the Climate Prediction Center map only goes back to 120 days, but we do see some similarities. Very dry over the east central portion of Wyoming through the west central valley areas. Higher amounts in the mountain areas, again, that was bumped up by some of the very late season snowfall. The very dry conditions extending into the Nebraska panhandle through central areas of the state with more improved conditions anywhere from about 4 in to maybe up to 8 in of precipitation based on the Climate Prediction Center and according to this ledger down here.

[00:10:54]South Dakota, very dry over sections along and north of the Missouri River, but around the western half of the state, again, about 4 to 7 in of estimated precip in the past 120 days.

[00:11:06]The eastern half of the state also doing similar around the James River Valley, anywhere from about 5 to about 7 in of precip reported. So, slightly higher amounts based on the Climate Prediction Center.

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[00:11:32]Thanks for watching everyone and being a member of the dayweather plus subscription service. Our next report is Monday, June 22nd.