India may be at the dawn of a social movement: Christophe Jaffrelot | Conversations with Nilanjan

Ajouté : 2026-06-01

[00:00:01]Constantly RSS has tried to reduce the domination of Narendra Modi over the S para river.

[00:00:13]This is a party which has actually now started uh dictating which are the voters if you want to have voting rights.

[00:00:25]Only a social movement could reverse the trend and that that may happen.

[00:00:43]Hello and welcome to the federal. I am Nilanjan Mukopadhya.

[00:00:47]Over the past four years, you have probably been seeing me interviewing various eminent people across the globe.

[00:00:57]Now, from this episode onward, we have decided to rebrand the program and it is now called Conversations with Nilangin.

[00:01:06]So, welcome to the first and the inaugural issue of or rather the episode of Conversations with Nilangjan. Uh my guest today is uh professor Kristoff Jafferov who uh has already appeared in this program in its previous aftar. We have been having you know once in a year and a half or once in a year at very critical moments of Indian contemporary political history. We have been going to him to try to unpack what is happening in India. Welcome to this program uh and this conversation professor Jeff Law.

[00:01:44]It's really always a delight and a very learning experience also to speak with you.

[00:01:50]>> Same here Nanjen. Thank you for for having me again.

[00:01:55]>> You know as uh we are talking we are just through with this recent round of elections in four states and one union territory of Kudui.

[00:02:05]Now we are witnessing a very significant and a very heightened kind of a tussle between the central forces and the regional political parties.

[00:02:16]Region regionalism as you know has been a long phenomenon in Indian politics but seems to be weakening at the moment.

[00:02:24]That is what the election ver says.

[00:02:26]Mohammad Banerjie of Congress has lost and MKini lost to a completely a newcomer from Tamil Nad.

[00:02:35]You have also repeatedly talked about the BJP's goal of having a unitary state.

[00:02:41]So my first question is that in the backdrop of the election, the verdict that it has given, do you think that the BJP and the San Piwar in its entirety is getting closer to be able to establish a unitary state in India?

[00:02:58]Yes, certainly it has never been so close uh to this uh achievement quote unquote. Uh first of all because they have conquered new states at least one very big trophy that is West Bengal.

[00:03:14]That's a milestone in their trajectory.

[00:03:19]And secondly, because they are getting closer and closer to the magic figure of having enough seats in parliament for reforming the constitution.

[00:03:32]>> The these are two reasons we may return to in greater detail. There is a third factor of course sir is one red limitation and we have to look at both things I think together but really limitation definitely would be one more step towards a unitary state because that would transform the north the strongholds of BJP as as almost a majority a political majority.

[00:04:08]And when we say this, when we say they are on their way to create a unitary state, we need to get back to the roots of this matter.

[00:04:19]>> It has always been their goal. And you know for for decades I keep reading their publications, BJP publications, RSS publications, Jansang publications >> 1957 that is when the7 exactly >> this is a very good point in London.

[00:04:44]This is the moment when Jan Sang in its election manifesto says very clearly that they are against linguistic states that they are disapproving of the redrawing of the Indian map that started in the early 50s. Telugu speaking Andhra Pradesh and and Tamil speaking Tamil Nad were created in 53. But of course the real turning point is 56 when you have so many new >> reorganiz reorganization of states.

[00:05:19]>> Exactly. And then they say this is not the way we want India to be governed.

[00:05:26]They have a a clear sense of decentralization. They they are not for hyper centralization but they don't want this brand of centralization.

[00:05:39]In 57 they say we want to create janpads at the sub state level. You know you amalgamate districts but they are not supposed to be many nations. Linguistic states are many nations dividing the patriotism of India. So yes it's not a new story. it is the end of a long journey that they may now be almost in a position to to achieve right you know there's also this uh another factor which has been going on for the last 10 years and even or rather since 2014 it has was also there fairly strongly and visibly during the Atalihari Waji tenure between 1998 and 2004 That is the internal dynamics within the S paraliad. The RSS wanting to control the government and the government not wanting to be controlled by the RSS even though they have common ideological goals. Since 2014 also you would remember that that period was you know preceded by a per time when the RSS did not seem very keen on agreeing that Mr. Modi will be the prime ministerial face of the BJP. Anyway, eventually they possibly realize that we have to have him. There is no other possibility. But at in the initial years 2014, 15 uh 16 even 2017 Yogi Adit's appointment as the Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister for instance you know all that showed that the RSS was wanting to have some kind of a counterbalancing force to Narendra Modi within the BJP. But now how do you assess the internal equation between uh the RSS and the BJP or what these RSS sari people say sircar and s equation or the circar and s dynamics. How is it playing out now?

[00:07:48]>> Again this is not new. Um RSS has always lived with this contradiction.

[00:07:56]On the one hand, they need politicians.

[00:07:59]They need people who can well simply get voters who are in a position to attract voters.

[00:08:08]>> That's right.

[00:08:08]>> On the other hand, they want their organization to prevail and this organization is not a meal creating charismatic leaders. On the contrary, you know, we have to go back to what Gvalar was saying. No angularities, no personality that should prevail over others. So this tension >> is more important than the individual.

[00:08:35]That is the way it was framed.

[00:08:37]>> Exactly. Individuals would be the angularities. So you you have this contradiction. you know you have this tension and we saw that in the past in the beginning Jan had dinaraya as his as its leader and of course Mr. I could not attract voters because he was a prarak till the end and not a man who could speak from the platform. But when Madrat Mado became too prominent then they had to expel him because he emancipated himself from from the organization. So this tension is I would say consubstantial constitutive of the song para and as you said um Narendra Modi was not the cup of tea in the beginning. You we may remember that in Gujarat in 2007 for the state elections RSS did not converse for him >> because true he was he was too independent >> and that was in fact one way to make it to make him even more independent because if RSS did not converse for him he had to create his own parallel power structure and that's what he did and he was in a position to relate directly to the voters circumventing the RSS uh network forcing RSS to fall in line and say okay he has been reelected he has his own uh supporters his own uh also networks mediabased networks and and of course Kishor will come in 20 2012 and we and we'll see Prashan Kishor becoming a spine doctor well Modi did not need ISS >> and in 2014 and in 2014 Bhagwat simon him to Nagpur and he said I I'm not coming I don't need your advice.

[00:10:35]So >> and he ran the campaign from Gandhi Nagar or Ahmedabad. Uh every evening he would be uh you know using the the network the wireless network to be able to go and address people all in these television vans all over the country.

[00:10:52]And after this victory uh RSS tried hard to avoid having Amita as BJP president and failed again. So constantly RSS has tried to reduce the domination of Narendra Modi over the Song Par and failed. Now >> even this latest president do you think that the RSS could not get the person they wanted? Well, this they certainly can get some modus operandi and and and I would say yeah there there are some concessions that are made but at the end of the day it's a balance of power that is not working in their favor.

[00:11:37]>> Okay. So, so they are waiting, they are waiting for the next um moment when they would be in a position to prevail again and be the referee between different um applicants to the top job.

[00:11:57]My hunch is that till Narendra Modi is prime minister of India.

[00:12:05]They would benefit as much as they can from his um I would say rule.

[00:12:12]But it will be after he leave this scene that we'll see an attempt by RSS to stage a comeback and be again the kingmaker. That's not for tomorrow I'm afraid.

[00:12:25]So basically they have to last out the Modi ears as a second fiddle. After that they will once again to try to assume the dominant position.

[00:12:38]>> Yeah, that's my guess. But you know it's not as if they did not benefit because as you said ideologically there is no difference. Yes.

[00:12:46]>> So, so they benefit because on so many fronts Narendra Modi delivers. He delivers regarding of course the plea of the Muslims in India, regarding Kashmir, regarding Iodia, regarding so many things that would would not have been accessible without a strong Indudva oriented prime minister and and is is is that person. No, even the latest decision of the government to appoint a highpowered committee to study a so-called alleged demographic imbalances in the country and how it has actually changed the charact demographic character of India. This is straight away lift from the RSS resolutions of the 1960s7s and 80s.

[00:13:44]>> Yeah.

[00:13:44]>> So the RSS really would not have anything to complain about. People would say they're just being fussy. They just want to have their signature on the on the paper but things are being done in any case >> and at the same time there is also this very big weakness on the RSS side. They don't have the public figures you need >> for becoming for instance chief ministers. Where are the chief ministers coming from lately?

[00:14:14]>> They're all from the ABVP. A large number of them are coming from the ABVP which is technically a part of the RSS.

[00:14:23]>> Yes. But others are coming from Congress also.

[00:14:26]>> Yes. Yes.

[00:14:27]>> And that's an interesting >> and that's an interesting detour. How do you build how do you make a politician not in the ranks of the RSS so easily?

[00:14:40]So they have also this handicap that they need people coming from app coming from Congress because politicians are a different brand of no they are different animals and these animals are not trained easily in the with a khaki short >> you know since we are talking about the Modi era and after that the RSS would like to seize control would you like to speculate on who could be the RSS choices you know in a situation when Modi is no longer the leader of the BJP.

[00:15:14]>> Well, I'm still convinced that Gatkar is their number one choice.

[00:15:20]>> Okay.

[00:15:20]>> Um but you know, in a race like this one, >> you do not necessarily go for your number one choice.

[00:15:30]You may have to be prepared to to to go for the for the B plan.

[00:15:35]>> Okay? Uh because there's no point pushing a candidate who has too little chances to win. So >> right, >> let's see.

[00:15:46]>> He's not a big vote catcher.

[00:15:49]>> Yeah.

[00:15:49]>> So who is the best vote catcher at the moment among the non-Modi leaders?

[00:15:54]>> You know the best the best moment to assess this to respond to this question will be the next UP elections. Okay.

[00:16:06]>> If if Yanat can win one3 for a third time elections in UP, he will appear as a vote catcher of a different kind. Now, will will he win?

[00:16:23]Uh that's a very important I would say uh question we'll see soon. So, so would you would you say that the detractors of Yogi Adityanat within the BJP and within the RSS would not be really very very keen that the BJP wins in Uttar Pradesh once again in 2027.

[00:16:47]>> You know, we we are reaching the end of a cycle. If not in 2029, soon after that there'll be a change of God at at the very top. So inevitably the kind of question you ask is relevant because inevitably factions will crystallize for preparing themselves.

[00:17:12]>> So I agree some some of the opponents of may not be sad even within the BJP if if if he if he lost. But that would be that would be an important very important variable to factor in for the next lock saba elections.

[00:17:35]>> Yes. Anyway, let's leave this issue of speculation something more concrete that we can talk about. You know I remember in 2024 when we spoke after the Lok Sabha elections a few months after that in fact towards the end of 2024 you had argued that it had actually been a kind of a you know a new phase of Indian politics was emerging. You know, we talked about extensively about how Modi had been weakened because the BJP did not have majority, how he had become dependent on coalition partners and that the opposition had greater strength, greater voice both within parliament and even outside. Two and a half years later, you know, it appears to have or rather, you know, two years later precisely, it appears that Modi is back at the helm of affairs and controlling everything, you know, by uh, you know, has a complete hold of the entire system, assembly elections in all assembly elections except Jarant possibly one of the notable elections.

[00:18:41]But in this round, West Bengal kind of a victory and the scale at which it has happened you know it has actually been the last frontier you know which they really wanted to have. So it is going to have a tremendous impact on the politics of Hindutwa and also on the uh region regional politics also. Now how has this change happened? How could Modi from a position of weakness, you know, jump onto this position of immense strength which he has now? Is it largely a part of the mistakes made by the opposition or has Modi made some really tactically brilliant moves?

[00:19:26]No, I think that indeed 2024 opened a new chapter and it is precisely because Modi appeared weak after the Lok Saba elections that we've seen something opening a new chapter.

[00:19:46]Elections are even less than before an even playing field.

[00:19:54]You know we keep looking at these elections as business as usual.

[00:20:01]>> They are not. They are not. Remember immediately after the Oxaba elections, Maharashtra elections, Ariana elections and there are so many specialists of Indian elections who demonstrated that these elections were not fair.

[00:20:24]Okay, >> 2024 the Lok Saba elections of 2024 showed that Modi could lose >> and if there is one thing he cannot afford, it's to lose.

[00:20:37]>> Okay, >> there is so much at stake. So how do you retain power when the risk of losing increases?

[00:20:47]>> Well, you make the election moment something different.

[00:20:54]We saw that in Maharashtra. We saw that in Ariana. We saw that in BR.

[00:20:59]And in BR they initiated something called SIR that made the competition even more unequal.

[00:21:12]So we have entered a new era.

[00:21:17]We can't look at these elections as fair.

[00:21:23]Okay.

[00:21:23]>> Not only because of S, not only because of course the press coverage, not only because of the fact that the kind of financial resources of the ruling party is so much more than the opposition, but also because of things like u jerry mandering, gerrymandering in Assam unprecedented.

[00:21:48]So >> the delimitation that you are talking about >> where where they changed the shape shape of the constituencies to ensure that you know uh minorities could not influence the result in constituency in the number of constituencies which happened you know previously. See, you see the number of indications we have that since 2024 BGP cannot afford to play the usual political game because the risk of losing is such that you have to change the rules of the game.

[00:22:26]>> So in that sense you can certainly consider that yes he is weak because he cannot win without changing the rules of the game. But of course by changing the rules of the game it becomes stronger and could even West Bengal.

[00:22:46]So now we are in a situation where a large number of people when they talk you know who are critical of the government when they say that uh this is a party which has actually now started uh dictating which are the voters it want to have voting rights. Now in such a stage that we are in, if this is true, then is our elections uh going to be any fair and does it really uh you know warrant the opposition parties to contest elections and know play? It's like playing in a game where your players are down by five and the terrain on your side is uneven.

[00:23:36]A hockey field is sloping that it's easy to shoot into your goal but you cannot shoot because it's a very steep climb for you.

[00:23:46]>> Yeah.

[00:23:47]>> Does it really uh what is the likely shape of Indian politics in such a stage?

[00:23:52]>> Yeah. But there are two questions in one there because you you your you your first sentences were about the way some voters are disenfranchised.

[00:24:07]>> Yes.

[00:24:08]>> And that's something that makes indeed elections different but something we could expect. You know again we need to read what indu nationalists have said written over now 100 years.

[00:24:28]>> Yes.

[00:24:29]>> Gvalar the first one said if Muslims don't pay allegiance to Hindu culture they should not be citizens of the country.

[00:24:42]>> They should not be recognized as citizens of the country. You know, incidentally, this is exactly what Atalachi himself said many years later in a piece of writing that has been eliminated accultated subsequently.

[00:25:02]The RSS is my soul. you know in this piece of writing that I really recommend because you may find it somewhere uh it is >> okay >> something he says Muslims should not remain full citizens of India if they don't pay allegiance to the Hindu culture so they are doing what was already on their agenda for decades now of course that's a different India you know if you do what Israel is doing in the um system >> that they have started themselves.

[00:25:40]>> Okay, >> that's that's one. The second question you ask is should the opposition continue to contest elections if they are bound to lose? That's a very complicated question because yes, if you're born to lose and you play election the election game, you legitimize the winner.

[00:26:03]systematically.

[00:26:06]Now, if you boycott elections, everyone has to boycott elections because if some opposition parties alone boycott elections, those who will be still in the fray will benefit and therefore the system will continue.

[00:26:25]Also the ruling party can very well create opposition parties in order to claim that there is a real competition.

[00:26:35]So boycotting elections is something we've seen elsewhere Bangladesh BNB decided >> doesn't work >> to boycott elections.

[00:26:47]>> Yes, >> it did not work.

[00:26:50]You know the thing is in all the countries around India it's not via electoral processes mostly that changes have occurred on the political scene and therefore we may even wonder whether boycotting or not boycotting makes any difference >> any difference for real change to happen.

[00:27:23]>> There is another very important uh point which has happened in the last 12 years that since Mr. Modi became you have uh spent a lot of time studying the Indian functioning of the Indian judiciary uh not and I will go beyond that it's not just the judiciary your findings about how the judiciary has kind of uh you know given up its structural independence which it has and has actually started looking or imagining what would please the the executive the political executive examples have been set forward. If you do this what pleases us, you get Rajya Sabha membership, you get an position as a governor. So there are examples which have been set. So there are some people who want to adopt similar kind of path and strategy. But also very important bodies about what we are talking about the election commission of India.

[00:28:24]How would you assess the incline of the election commission of India since 20145? You know after that for some 1 2 3 years things are fine but after I think 2016 onwards we started seeing instances of show cause notices not being issued to BJP leaders. That is the first sign that we saw during uh the campaign for violating the model code of conduct whereas these would be for far lesser uh you know violations of opposition parties. So this entire trajectory of about 8 n years how do you assess it? Well, there is clearly a loss of independence, prestige, moral authority. You know when we compare what the election commission is today with what it used to be under Tien Sashan for instance.

[00:29:28]>> You know Tien Sashan was so independent that he decided to residual elections the week before they were supposed to take place after everybody has spent so much money for in vain.

[00:29:44]>> That's no or even Mr. Mr. Lingo, you know, when he was the chief election commissioner during the 2002 Gujarat elections, you know, that was a very important period.

[00:29:55]>> And Kureshi, of course.

[00:29:57]>> Yes. Yes.

[00:29:59]>> What does what does it say? It says that men matter. The personalities of people matter. You know, you might have Yeah.

[00:30:12]positions which are protected under the law. If you don't have the right people occupying them, that will not make any difference. But that's only one explanation. I think the other explanations run parallel to what you said about this room code of India.

[00:30:32]You you will get a postretirement syndicure if you behave. Number one. Number two, you'll be appointed only if we find you suitable for the job. Now, this is this is how the collision has been completely neutralized. Now, the now the colligium selects justices who are of the liking of the government.

[00:31:08]So, the independence has gone. Same story here.

[00:31:12]you you know that the is officers who will join the election commission will be selected because they are um of the liking of of the government. Thirdly and we should not neglect this underestimate that ideological affinities. You know indu nationalism has become so much agonic as as as a mindset.

[00:31:44]Indu in Islamophobia has become so all pervasive.

[00:31:50]You know that's one thing we need to to now also admit it's not only um for the sake of power it's not only for the sake of some postretirement position it's also because they believe in it and that's >> why do you think that you know this is something I've always wondered for a long time do you think that in the 80s and the '9s I'm referring to these decades because 1980s is the time when I became a journalist. I know that 1980s is also the time when you began to study Indian politics and the emergence of Hindu nationalism very seriously. You did your PhD in the 1980s which eventually led to your first book on Hindu nationalism. you know that at that time there was some kind of a belief that India would be perpetually secular.

[00:32:50]>> Yeah.

[00:32:50]>> Do you think that this was a misreading of the situation that deep down somewhere there was this very strong Islamophobic tendencies which were not being articulated because it was seen as politically incorrect. BJP came, it gave the confidence of people to say what they want to say.

[00:33:09]>> You know, I think we underestimated the groundwork of the song parore over decades and I say we but in fact the last sentence of my first book that you are to is precisely saying this. It's in 1996.

[00:33:34]Bachpai has been a minister for prime minister for a few days only. And I and I add in my postcript it's not because they could not form the government that that they have not become a force to recon with because at the grassroots level the S parivar is doing a lot of work and you know this is this is for me the main mistake of many of those who were sitting in Delhi ignoring what was going on in the countryside in the slum comes in everywhere because the song par has been active in each and every sector of society and therefore even the elite groups no have have been part of one of the organizations of the RSS the lawyers have their own organizations >> teachers >> teachers uh ex army officers you know there is not one sector that is not targeted. So it's very important to to compare the 80s and and and today by keeping this in mind decades of groundwork in the context of the Iodia movement because the Iodia movement >> was central to their emergence.

[00:34:58]>> It was it was and it was a mass movement. So it has changed the mindset of the society and that's why when we try to understand how is officers of the election commission do what they do and and do not criticize those who are using Hinduism in their election discourses.

[00:35:20]Well, so many new kinds of influence have transformed the wall atmosphere of the country in in in the past few years in the past decades.

[00:35:37]>> That is uh something there uh truly to you know it's important to wonder about this that whether this can be in any way reversed or not. Now I will draw you into very briefly into another aspect which you have talking about you have spoken about the RSS and it's that it has already established what you said a deeper state you know we talk about you have studied Pakistan also so within the context of Pakistan we talk about the deep state here you talk about the deeper state >> now despite the uh contradictions and the tussle between the BJP and the RS how is it that you say that the RSS very much has that control over the deeper state which completely merges and work unitedly with what you call the electoral state.

[00:36:29]>> Yes, this is indeed a very important um I would say innovation that uh the S parivar has initiated.

[00:36:40]When we say deep state, we think about Pakistan indeed and we think about the way the establishment as we say in Pakistan, the the army remote controls the government.

[00:36:56]They may be civilians. They are in fact a facade of respectability that the army is using. But this is the deep state. A deeper state is is a different idea. The idea is that you have the official state, you have the institutions, you have the police and in a BGP ruled state, the police will of course be sympathetic to the vigilantes.

[00:37:26]>> But the vigilantes will supplement what the police does.

[00:37:32]>> Okay? First of all because first of all because you you don't have a sufficiently large number of police officers but also because the vigilantes can do things the police can hardly do.

[00:37:45]No they they are doing illegal things routinely but illegality is different from illegitimacy. What they do is legitimate to patrol the highway to check the trucks where they suspect uh a cow may be taken to the slaughter house to arrest the truck to lynch the driver that's illegal but it's in the name of Hinduism it's in the name of protection of Hinduism and therefore they get out >> and that's the deeper state you know the the state goes deeper in society because they do the job the government is more than happy with more than happy with but >> in a different way >> and you know it's more in tune with what the RSS is for.

[00:38:45]RSS is for controlling society not for controlling the state the government.

[00:38:51]They don't believe so much in the state.

[00:38:53]The state is artificial. The state is coming from above. They want to crisscross society in order to control society to change the mindset of the people at the >> in fact in fact they often say that if you ask any of the senior leaders that what is your ultimate goal of the S. So they say that we want society to become the S.

[00:39:17]>> Exactly. which means >> that that the coexistence of society >> and again we have to go back to the roots. It's exactly what Edgiver said in in in 2025 in 1925.

[00:39:31]>> So there nothing new there. It's just that the same agenda is now reaching its quote unquote logical conclusion and and that's why we can certainly uh anticipate problems in case of any alternation in power. Government may change the the rulers may change.

[00:39:57]This network of vigilantes is deeply >> they will not go away. voted in society and and that's that's one more challenge and you don't find that in countries following a similar trajectory you know you have ethnationalist leaders in many countries now very similar to Narendra Modi Erdogan so many others but when they lose power they disappear >> they disappear the politics also changes >> exactly But it may not happen in India because of a deeper state which has already been created by the RSS. The RSS is also there.

[00:40:41]>> Only a social movement can make a big difference.

[00:40:45]>> Now here I come to my last question of the conversation.

[00:40:51]We are looking at what I would say a frightening consistency because you say what is happening now was written or said by HKund one years ago or 102 years ago that has happened. So there has they have been unwavering. They have established control over various arms of the state just judiciary, the election commission, various other things which determine who is going to be in government.

[00:41:21]So it is a fairly gloomy scenario. You also say that opposition parties will you know really not be able to gain anything by boycotting elections. So they'll have to keep on struggling hoping yet despite such a bleak scenario you talk about if not in 2029 at least another five years later you anticipate some kind of a government change. I do not know if you also anticipate a change in the politics of India. This this this uh you know favoring Hindu nationalistic islamophobic idea which is sitting in the minds of people. But in this suddenly comes across because of what I say some over you know arrogance of the chief justice of India uses the word cockroach and accuses those who are the result of the failure of policy as being cockroaches.

[00:42:16]They immediately do not look at it as a slur but they immediately own it. Yes, we are cockroaches. We are cockroaches because of your mistakes. And then it suddenly becomes a widespread social media movement. I do not know if this is going to you know actually end in the manner in which Satra's very famous dystopian classic Hakar Raja Dishi ended that with the overthrow of the despotic king may not happen but how are you as a social scientist from a distance reading this and how are you looking at it differently compared to the other social movement which happened in the last years of the UPA movement that is the uh movement against corruption, India against corruption movement.

[00:43:03]>> Yeah. No, this is indeed a very exciting question and perspective.

[00:43:10]As I said, only a social movement could reverse the trend and that that may happen that may happen primarily because we are just at the beginning of a major economic and social crisis. It is just the beginning.

[00:43:29]And uh it's not only because of this um >> oil crisis uh gas crisis, fertilizers crisis of course it's amplifying the movement but the Indian economy was in any case even before that in a very bad shape and unemployment had become so chronic so all pervasive lack of investment no name one issue and and and is there.

[00:43:59]So when you have such a bad management so such a mismanagement of the economy when you have a social crisis that is mounting and affecting the the youth primarily you may be at the dawn of of a social movement. Now okay >> each and every country around India has experienced a social movement of that kind.

[00:44:23]>> That's right.

[00:44:25]In some cases the owners of power could could keep it. the Pakistani army kept power or parties who were in office before got came back and and and and that's what we saw in Bangladesh or you have completely newcomers like in Nepal when a rap singer becomes prime minister or you have a fourth scenario >> in India Tamil Nadu >> and and that's the case in India indeed but just to finish with the neighbors.

[00:45:06]Sri Lanka had a fourth scenario. A party that was nowhere in the picture all of a sudden >> wins the majority and dislodge from power dynasties in charge of the country for 70 years.

[00:45:21]Um what could be the scenario in India? This is certainly one of the most exciting um I would say perspectives at the moment. One thing because we are talking about the RSS primarily. One thing we should certainly keep in mind is it will be very difficult for RSS to support a government alienating the youth.

[00:45:54]You know, if RSS wants to be co-extensive with society, >> Mhm.

[00:46:00]>> it has to be in tune with society. And if there is a ferore, if there is a rage, if there are demonstrations, how will they go against a wave of of that magnitude? And that is something we'll have to keep in mind. and and and that will be inevitably different from what you were referring to in London 2012 2013. You know, it was a fabricated movement. It was a fabricated social movement. Yes, there was corruption but not at all the kind of corruption we thought there was because all the cases, the Colgate, the 2D gate, everything >> nothing nothing could be proven. It was fabricated and it was fabricated with few people and a ketal who were prepared to to play in in the ends of RSS basically >> and also elements of the RSS were involved in the movement.

[00:47:00]>> Of course they were there and they were behind the scene even even more. If we have a spontaneous youth movement today, it will be a different movement.

[00:47:14]But you know, a movement needs a leader, a move, at least a team of leaders. A movement needs a sense of direction. And it's very complicated for the existing politicians to promote themselves that way because they will look they will they will be accused of being well of of hijacking the movement.

[00:47:35]recuperating the movement, >> right?

[00:47:38]>> So these youth if they if they really create a social movement, these young men will have to to find leaders among them >> within themselves >> in the among themselves in in their own ranks. And it is is not so easy. It is far from easy especially when the scale of the demonstrations are are at a semicontinental or subcontinental level.

[00:48:03]But that is something to watch definitely because who would have expected such a huge backlash.

[00:48:10]>> Yes, >> social media of course amplify things and may help them to coordinate. We'll see.

[00:48:18]>> We'll see. There's a lot to see and look ahead and there will be many more conversations with Milan with Kristoff Jaffer in the future. Thank you so much for coming and unpacking a bit of a very complicated period of India. You definitely have you know given us some very small signs of hope at the end of the entire conversation. Thank you so much once again.

[00:48:45]>> Thank you Nanjen.