Rubio Says U.S. Troop Movement In Europe Is 'Not Punitive'—Do NATO Allies See It That Way?

Added: 2026-05-22

[00:00:03]Hi everybody, I'm Britney Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes.

[00:00:07]Joining me now is Dr. Constanza Shelton Müller, the director of the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution. Thank you so much for joining me.

[00:00:16]>> Thank you very much for having me on.

[00:00:17]It's a pleasure.

[00:00:18]>> This is a really fluid conversation, especially since what we're talking about centers on the war against Iran.

[00:00:25]And I do want to time stamp exactly where we are. It's midm morning on the east coast and there's there's a there's a lot to discuss, but here's what we do know. We do know that at the end of February, the United States and Israel launched a war against Iran and there's been a really shaky ceasefire in effect since midappril. But just this morning, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, he is meeting with NATO foreign ministers in Sweden and he said that there has been some progress made in negotiations between the United States and Iran. But of course, this conflict isn't just impacting the United States, Israel, and Iran. It has global implications, especially since the Straight of Hormuz has essentially been at a near standstill for months now. So, to start off the conversation, since you are a transatlantic relations expert, how are European leaders viewing the moment we're in?

[00:01:17]>> Your point uh that is necessary to time stamp these conversations is deeply felt um because it feels like things change every 5 minutes. But to answer your question, I think that Europeans are trying to deal with what now looks like a 360 degree security threat in Europe. Um, let me explain what I mean by that and then we can tunnel down to onto Iran. We are looking at a Russia that is not doing too well on the battlefield in Ukraine, but is becoming more and more aggressive uh not just against Ukraine, but also against its European supporters. And it is trying to split Europe from the US and the Europeans among each other with propaganda and sabotage. Um that's bad enough. Um, we're also looking at a China that is, you know, essentially uh waging trade assess uh aggression against Europe, flooding European markets, um unfair business practices. We know all that.

[00:02:22]And then now a volatile, unreliable and in some ways corrosive American ally.

[00:02:30]the the focus on the east has now been amended by a you know a queasy focus on what's happening in Greenland and with Greenland and in the North Atlantic and the strikes on Iran have created a situation that looks as though it is highly uh vulnerable to horizontal escalation in the region and vertical escalation by a further you um intensification of hostilities and that has consequences for Europe in a number of ways. What one is it's it's it's true that not that much gas goes through the straight of Hormuz to Europe but the data cables in the straight which is pretty shallow are very important for Europe and any kind of kinetic hostility in the strait or demining activity would endanger those data cables and then it's clear that the attempts by including by the Trump administration and the B administration to create more stability in the Middle East by brokering peace between the Israelis and the Gulf Arabs uh and around Iran are also now coming apart and all of that has consequences for the security and safety of Europe. So yeah, not great.

[00:03:52]>> And not only that, there's been this real whiplash regarding commentary surrounding the US military presence in Europe, especially because President Trump changed his mind just yesterday on Thursday. And I want to run down a timeline of what exactly happened.

[00:04:07]Starting earlier this month, that was when the Pentagon announced it was reducing the number of US troops in Germany. They said they were withdrawing 5,000 troops in that country within the next 6 to 12 months. President Trump also floated reducing troops from other European countries like Italy and Spain.

[00:04:24]And he also said this, "We're going to cut way down and we're cutting a lot further than 5,000." Then just last week, the Pentagon announced they were cancelling deployments to both Germany and Poland. But in a complete turnaround on Truth Social on Thursday, President Trump announced that because he has this great relationship with the Polish president, that the United States is going to deploy 5,000 troops to the country. How is Europe viewing this, especially this back and forth regarding troop movement on the continent?

[00:04:55]>> So, there are a couple things going on here. Um, one is that normally this kind of adaptation of US force posture in Europe is communicated through a formal document called the global force posture review. Um, and that is usually not just communicated but consulted with allies in advance, especially the European allies who for you know 80 years were America's closest allies. Now what it seems is happening is that there is still no formal global force posture document. There is of course the context that no European can forget of a national security strategy that overtly um declares that the this administration will support hardright regimes in Europe including Hungary. Not that that helped apparently not. Um, and so all of these force posture reductions announcements that you've just listed have have clearly not been consulted in or communicated in advance and as you also said they are being revised by the president on the basis of personal relationships and likes or dislikes. Right? That's makes a situation where the Russians and the Chinese are very closely watching the transatlantic relationship extremely difficult. Remember that not just we we we're not just seeing the Russians threatening the Baltic states um and Europeans more generally by alleging that they the Baltic states are letting Ukraine start drone attacks against Russia from Baltic territory, which the Baltics are vigorously denying. And I have no reason to believe that they're lying. I think the Russians are gaslighting Europe here. And the other thing that we've learned is that the Chinese have, and that's really new and very concerning, that the Chinese have been training Russian soldiers that are deployed to Ukraine. Right? So that's the context in which this sort of whiplash and sort of odd bilateral communication with DoD is is is going on. And what we're also seeing, and that is adding to the confusion and the apprehension and the anxiety, is that there's clearly tensions between DoD leadership and the White House.

[00:07:23]>> And that's been reported. It's been reported that anonymous DoD officials have said, "Hey, we're confused. We don't know really what's going on." And to your earlier point, it seems like, well, not it seems like President Trump did post, "I have a great relationship with the Polish president. They get 5,000 troops." The timeline says uh the German chancellor criticized President Trump said Iran is humiliating the US.

[00:07:49]President Trump and the Pentagon announced that 5,000 troops from Germany are going to be withdrawn. But Secretary of State Rubio, he said today, he addressed this troop movement. He said it's not punitive. He said that the US has global commitments that it needs to meet and it's ongoing. Does your view of it that way? That it's not a punishment here?

[00:08:09]Look, I haven't gotten any phone calls from European leaders about this. Yeah, I hope not to disappoint disappoint viewers with this information, but um so I and my any answer to that is going to be speculative. But let me put it this way. I think the the position of any sane European policy maker is going to be you know what it doesn't matter where those troops are stationed as long as they aren't withdrawn. It also doesn't matter where those troops are stationed as long as there is no appearance of a US administration trying to split the Europeans, right? Um that's what's key.

[00:08:49]Um the it's clear that there were volatile personal relationships between the president and European leaders including the German chancellor Frederick MZ.

[00:09:02]Right. And I think European leaders would be well advised, if I may editorialize for a moment, right, to avoid tensions, personal tensions by making unguarded remarks, right, about the president's strategy in Iran.

[00:09:17]Remember that the chancellor of Germany said to a class full of school ch children that that the administration was being humiliated in Iran. I mean I think there is a general sense in Germany that that kind of remark is best avoided right but but that look the truth is this we it's it's not entirely clear to Europeans that this administration is fully willing to admit just and and especially admit to to the American public to American voters just how important uh these bases in Europe are for American national interests, nothing not things that happen within NATO, but for American force posture, its ability to intervene in the Middle East or North Africa. The other thing, and that's especially true, by the way, for for the bases in Germany like um Lstro Ramstein, which are enormous, and which are the sort of transportation hubs and medical hubs for all of America's 40 or so bases in Europe. That's my first point. The second point is it's also not correct to say that Europeans have been, you know, outright denying base usage to the Americans. Um, one or two countries have, but most of them have been quietly allowing the Americans to use their bases, uh, have not been denying overflight rights and have otherwise been constructive. And the final point I'd like to make, if I may, is that, you know, the Europeans are of course right to say, listen, um, dear Mr. President, dear Secretary of State, NATO is a def is a defensive alliance for the purpose of defending Europe. And the reason and and that is in America's interest, not is because of the deep economic relationship that we have, and because you ought to care whether the Russians succeed with aggression in Europe or not. and and therefore you know a unilateral American Israeli strikes on Iran don't fall within NATO's remmit right but we have often had such situ such situations where European allies have said well this isn't a NATO issue but we can talk in another forum about how we ought to respond and possibly collaborate together right and there the Europeans have said okay we are willing to put to 35 nations and not just Europeans but Asians as well to put together a force that would stabilize the strait of hormones but with two conditions that are really important.

[00:11:56]one is a United Nations mandate and the other one is a sessation of hostilities.

[00:12:01]And that unfortunately unmasks this offer, right, as something that is not realistic because the Russians and the Chinese are never going to um approve that in the UN Security Council. And a sessation of hostilities right now looks like the least likely trajectory this conflict is taking.

[00:12:21]And then as the world has seen, President Trump has not been happy with the way some NATO allies have responded to this war. He's made that known time and time again. And Secretary of State Rubio, he's made that known today. He said that the president's disappointed and he said those responses are well documented and they will have to be addressed globally. They do. And especially when it comes to NATO allies, European leaders, are they reading that as a threat? And will that change their relationship with the United States, not only in President Trump's term, but do you think long term?

[00:12:58]>> Britney, I I would say that is clearly an attempt to build up right a narrative ahead of the July NATO summit in Anchora on July 7th and 8th. Um, again, the Europeans are legally formally on the in in terms of the NATO treaty fully within their rights to say unilateral strikes on Iran are not within NATO's remitt.

[00:13:27]um we don't have to discuss those because you didn't consult us, you didn't ask for advice, you didn't involve us and you have made absolutely no case that is this is in any way within NATO's remitt which is defending Europe. Right?

[00:13:44]That said, we could still discuss US European cooperation in the Middle East at the NATO summit. Right? It's not impossible to say, listen, we will set aside an hour or two to talk about this and see whether we can come to some sort of division of labor. It's the it's the sort of pounding the Europeans and saying you're being illy allies, right?

[00:14:07]Because you aren't, you know, as you saluting and saying, "Yes, sir. What can we what can we do for you?" Um, that is, I think, forging more unity in Europe than the White House is willing to acknowledge, right? And and so I you know this you know if this were a relationship I would say you know counseling sounds like a really good idea >> and what's been underscoring this whole conversation is just how fluid the situation is the fact that Secretary of State Rubio is in Sweden with these NATO foreign ministers. Now I've had one eye on my phone just trying to see hey is there any breaking that totally changes the course of this conversation and I think that the entire world has a very similar sentiment. So my last question to you is between right now this second and to that July NATO meeting what are you looking for next? Honestly, uh, at this point, you know, I I've been keeping a sort of, uh, posted, you know, a long post-it list with issues of things that could happen that I need to watch.

[00:15:12]>> Don't be off.

[00:15:13]>> And, and I there right now there are so many balls in the air, it's a little scary. Um, one would quite like a pause over the Memorial Day weekend, but, I doubt we're going to get that. Um, again, I I feel like the the narrative of the tide turning in Ukraine for Ukraine and against Russia is leading to a fair amount of performative hysteria on the part of Russian official um, institutions um, and the Kremlin itself. Um, if I were a European planner, I'd be watching that very carefully, right? and the gaslighting about supposedly the the the Eastern European nations allowing Ukraine to use their territory as as a basis for drone attacks in Russia is something that needs to be watched very carefully. There are also reports about the Kremlin putting up um you know an alternative German Wikipedia, right, as a German language Wikipedia as a basis for propaganda. And the reason why that's relevant is that the German coalition helmed by Chancellor Men Merittz is uh in a bit of trouble politically and there are state elections um in the fall where the AFD is trending um in first place and with a and very far out. These are small eastern states, but you know, they're they're I think that the Russians are probably looking at this and are saying, how can we how can we exacerbate this political turn?

[00:16:53]So, that's one thing to look at or two things. Um, then of course there are the reports about US emissaries, Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry showing up in Greenland again. um Greenlanders protesting against the opening of a of a US consulate. Um there are stories or in fact the administration was announcing new strikes on Iran. It has put them up off supposedly until Tuesday after Memorial Day.

[00:17:22]You know, I think we literally have to habituate ourselves a to look as Europeans certainly to look at all aspects of our security environment, right? Which and secondly, frankly, to keep our nerves. That's a tall order, but uh but I think that is where we are. The the key thing right now is to be able to react calmly and appropriately and decisively to surprises. And I think the one thing you and I can agree on, there will be surprises between now and the Ankora Summit in July.

[00:17:58]>> I'm sure there will be plenty of them.

[00:18:00]And thank you so much for making sense of this really chaotic, confusing moment. Dr. Stelton Mohler, I appreciate the time. I hope you can join me again.

[00:18:08]>> My pleasure.