Hyper Active Severe Weather Pattern Is About To Take Shape For Millions!

Added: 2026-05-13

[00:00:00]All righty, guys. Good afternoon to y'all. Here it is. Tuesday, May 12th, 2026. Hope you guys are doing well out there. We've got multiple days of severe weather lined up here. This is probably going to be uh one of the most active periods of severe weather we've seen in quite some time here across most of the country, the Plains, the Ohio Valley, even the Southeast, the Upper Great Lakes region is going to have the chance to see severe weather over this next, I would say, 7 to 10 day stretch of of at least days that we've got here. Could even go past that window. a little bit of uncertainty on what's going to happen as we head into the month of June, but I do think we're going to continue to see active severe weather as we head into the first week of June here. Uh we still got a good chunk of March or of May left to get through. So, we've got time to uh continue to see severe weather here. It is May like as I mentioned here, so severe weather is going to continue if you guys did not know that. Uh but we're going to start out with our severe weather forecast here for this afternoon. We got three areas to watch today uh for severe weather. We've actually had a couple of tornado warnings for onshore water spouts over here in western Florida this afternoon.

[00:00:49]We do have a 2% tornado risk over here for an isolated briefly tornado or two this afternoon across portions of Tampa.

[00:00:54]We've got over here towards Miami, eastern half of Florida here. Going to have a lowend chance. And then we've got a damaging wind and a hail threat here for portions of the uh northern Ohio River Valley, the Midwest here and back down into the central plains here across portions of Kansas and Missouri. We're not going to have any live coverage for anything today. I may do a weather update later on this evening for you guys and kind of talk about what's going to be happening with our long range wise. But overall, uh tornado threat very low in today. Over here I'm at 2% there across eastern Florida. wind threat across all regions here at 5% for winds up to 60 miles per hour and that hail threat today going to be uh at 1 to two inches in diameter. So today more lowerend day for severe weather. Now we take a look at tomorrow. Tomorrow did get an upgraded slight risk for the first time up here in Montana. I know we're talking about Montana guys. So it is that time of the year where severe weather does get pushed up toward the uh northern upper Midwest region, not toward the West Pacific. But a couple areas to watch here tomorrow. Uh the Storm Prediction Center upgrading to a wind driven slight risk here. We're not really going to be looking at any tornadoes up here really, at least as of right now for for the uh upper uh Midwest region here, upper Great Lakes region, and as well as up here into uh just the northern plains here. But we do have the threat here for destructive winds. The uh Storm Prediction Center has upgraded two areas here for a hatched wind threat. You can see the 5% there uh in portions of north side of Salt Lake City there, moving up here toward portions of Idaho, and then back up here in Montana. We're going to have an area that could see winds 60 to 80 mph tomorrow in those two hatched regions. While everybody else has a chance of seeing winds up to 60 mph from basically New York back down into Virginia, West Virginia, and PA there, including Pittsburgh and then a little spot over here into Amarillo. So, these next two to three days are going to be on the lower end for severe weather. You still want to be weather aware. Don't have any highlighted tornado rston as of right now for tomorrow. And then we do have a small hail threat. So, just be weather aware tomorrow if you're up in Montana. We're in general in these marginal risk zones here. We could have some isolated damaging winds out there.

[00:02:30]And then as right now, we have a small little marginal risk on the day three outlook here for portions of Kansas, including Witchaw and northern Oklahoma.

[00:02:36]We'll be watching for a wind and hail threat. And then as we go into Friday, we don't have anything quite yet from the Storm Prediction Center on Friday. I am watching for some type of sneaky uh severe weather setup that could play out here. It's more conditional across portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Arkansas, and Missouri. We'll have to see what the Storm Prediction Center ends up doing, but overall Friday may be highlighted at some point in time, but it's just kind of a confidence thing here with severe weather. Now, where we start to get concerned uh for a more robust severe weather event is going to be on Saturday and Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center yesterday actually highlighted the day six outlook here.

[00:03:06]And this has expanded with time and shifted a little bit further to the west and to the north. Uh yesterday we had a little bit more of central Oklahoma in this risk. Oklahoma City are still in that. Uh western Oklahoma, Woodward, Witchaw, Kansas up towards Kansas City, Missouri, Southern Nebraska, and western Missouri are now in this. This is a level two out of five here on the scale uh for damage or for I should say damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. We don't yet know what the hazards are going to be with this yet because it is still, you know, 5 days out from happening. Uh, but this continues to be a concern on Saturday for if storms do fire off. We could have all hazards possible. But my biggest day is going to be on Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center overnight issuing a day six outlook for portions of Iowa, De Moine, up towards western Wisconsin, northern Missouri, uh, portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, and into Nebraska here. Now, I'm going to tell you guys right now, Sunday has a very, very high ceiling and a very low floor. meaning if everything comes together, a significant severe weather outbreak and possibly even a a couple of tornadoes can't be ruled out in terms of strong tornadoes uh on uh Sunday. Now, I think overall we're going to actually have a bigger risk zone that's going to more than likely extend across a big area here.

[00:04:04]The widespread structure of this storm depending on how the troughing evolution plays out. Could be from Texas all the way to Wisconsin. So, we're going to have to watch an even bigger area outside of what's already highlighted on Sunday. Sunday's highlighted area is just where confidence is at and where we know storms are more than likely going to happen at. Outside of that, I think we're going to see more storms. And I think this risk zone is going to expand in size. So, Sunday specifically, uh we will definitely have live coverage on Saturday and on Sunday across the channel here, uh for you guys to be able to know what's going on with weather here. But I do think a much bigger risk zone uh may be needed in future outlooks here, even as higher risk zones may be needing as well uh in future outlooks for Sunday here. And we're going to have to watch that very closely. Now, as we go into Monday and Tuesday, we don't have anything highlighted on day seven, day eight, but severe weather will more than likely continue well into the third week of May. So, we'll keep you guys updated on that. And if anything changes in general, you guys will know here on the channel. Now, I'm just going to briefly just show you guys the timing for today's showers and thunderstorms and our lowend severe threat across Florida. You can see the ongoing complex of storm supercells. Most of these storms are moving off the lake or off the ocean here on the west side of Florida and then going east. So, water spouts on land or inland could be a possibility here. We've had a couple tornado warnings this afternoon already across portions of like Spring Hill over here into Florida. But, as we go through this afternoon here, we're going to continue to see some beneficial rainfall across Florida here. Now down south here towards the uh eastern portion of Florida from Melbourne to Miami. We're going to have to watch for damaging winds and a brief isolated tornado can't be ruled out through about 6 7 8:00 this afternoon. Eventually by tonight uh those storms are going to move off there as that seab breeze pushes them out and then we are pretty much dry for this evening and then we may have a couple more rumbles of thunder out there for your Wednesday. But overall not expecting anything too crazy. I'll talk more about the timing tomorrow with our Montana event and up into PA when we get a little bit more data in on it. Right now the models are kind of struggling to grasp how that's going to play out. But overall we'll talk more about that in tomorrow's video. But just be a heads up, you could see some severe weather across those regions for tomorrow. Uh, now let's go ahead and talk about our jetream here and what's going to be happening. This is our 500 mibar jetream. Our winds with height here.

[00:05:49]Kind of tells us what our flow of our jetream is doing, where our highs are at, where our lows are at. And so right now, we got a big old ridge over here in the four corners. And we got that northwesterly flow uh with a little trough down here into Florida, which is causing today's severe weather up there.

[00:06:00]Now, as we go into tomorrow and into Thursday and Friday, what you guys are going to see is that ridge is going to start to break down. And what's going to happen is this kind of omega block pattern. It's that Omega symbol. We're going to have a piece of energy up here and a piece of energy over here. And this is what's going to lead to a little bit of severe weather uh over here in the northeast. And then we are going to have that severe weather up here in portions of Montana. I wouldn't be shocked to see uh SPC end up upgrading a 2% tornado risk here just because there is going to be the potential probably there for an isolated tornado or two.

[00:06:26]But this is a pretty impressive uh trough ejection here up here in Montana.

[00:06:29]Usually if this was like during July or you know June or anything like that, we'd have a more robust severe weather event out of this into Montana. But uh this is kind of like our first little instance here. And this is why the storm prediction center does have that hatched wind threat due to that trough. As we go into Friday and Saturday here, that trough is going to continue to move its way off to the east northeast here. I mentioned some isolated severe weather may be possible down here. We'll have a little bit of windshare to work on. This is what we call a mess scale day. Just a little area that could see some wind hail, maybe a brief tornado potentially on Friday if things come together. But overall in general here, northwesterly, westerly to easterly flow here is what we're going to be seeing ongoing here across portions of Friday into Saturday.

[00:07:00]Now, you're asking, you know, where's our setup for Saturday and Sunday? It comes into the picture light here. You can see on Saturday here what's going to happen. At least according to the latest GFS and some of its ensemble means here.

[00:07:10]We're going to see a pretty impressive trough ejection here for the middle of May. And this is going to allow I think multiple areas of widespread severe weather both on Sunday and even into next week here. Saturday, as I mentioned, severe weather possibly across this region right across where that trough is ejecting at here. That eastern exit region of the trough is where we could see severe weather across portions of northern and central Oklahoma, southern Kansas, and western Missouri. Now, as we go into Sunday, as I mentioned here, it's all dependent on how this plays out. A couple of days ago, we weren't looking at a trough this impressive. It is really uptrended for Sunday. And if everything does come together here, I think a very robust severe weather outbreak is going to be much on the table here uh from Wisconsin all the way down to Texas. We're going to have to watch this entire region on Sunday here for severe weather. And if you think we're done with severe weather after that, we're going to have kind of the leftovers or at least the remnants on Monday here across the Ohio Valley, the Great Lakes, and then back down into Texas again. And then Tuesday, we could see more severe weather again. It's just kind of unknown on where this is going to happen at, but there will be sheer and instability to work with here uh with possibly some more severe weather as we head into next week. Another system comes through here. You can see late into next week here, maybe more potent severe weather event for the Great Lakes region. Uh also, I'm going to mention this just because we are getting close to hurricane season. The GFS model specifically, it's the GFS model. We all know that here, but has been trying to suggest some type of low pressure system developing near Florida next week here. Uh a couple days ago the GFS model, it showed this random cat one hurricane going into Florida, which it's backed off on that clearly since then.

[00:08:27]And when we're doing tropical system outlooks and and looking at hurricane potential as we go into hurricane season, we don't just look at these dermatistic runs. We can start to look at ensemble spaghetti plots and all that. And right now, I'm just not seeing any other correlation with any other models or or or any type of um graphics showing showing that at all. So, we'll watch and see if anything happens. You can see tropical systems in early May to to before the June season starts or before hurricane season starts. So, we'll watch there. But overall though, we're really going to be focused on that severe weather here and potentially even more robust severe weather as we head towards next week. So, a very very active weather pattern is at play. And you guys can even see this continues through much of the end of May and maybe even in the first couple of weeks of June here. We're going to have to watch things very very carefully here. Now, as I mentioned as well, uh rainfall for some that don't see the severe weather.

[00:09:06]We need the rainfall for a lot of people here, which is going to be good. But overall here, speaking as we continue to watch these storm systems come through, you can see a little sneaky low pressure system down here into Texas and Oklahoma could cause an isolated wind hail threat day on Friday. But other than that, Saturday would be our first day where we could see some widespread severe weather here across portions of the central plains. Some thunderstorms back in the Ohio Valley. And then Sunday looks like it's going to be a very, very robust day. Uh more than likely with a 989 millibar low here up here in the central plains according to the latest GFS. I'll have to wait to see what the Euro does this afternoon once it updates, but this has been trending pretty significantly up in terms of Sunday uh with widespread convection possible moving into uh Sunday into Monday and into Tuesday here. Uh and then eventually we will continue to see storms and and severe weather as we go into next week here.

[00:09:49]Just multiple rounds of of severe weather. This is what we like to call as uh weather enthusiasts a hyperactive severe weather pattern. So it's going to get very active, guys. If you're tired of severe weather already, it's something we're going to have to deal with here. One more thing I'll hint on just before we wrap this video up for today, uh is going to be those rainfall totals here, just so you guys can kind of get an idea here of who's going to see rain and who's not going to see rain. And this goes out through about let's go through just the 22nd here over the next seven to 10 days of rainfall.

[00:10:12]And this is where we're going to see some pretty beneficial rainfall. The Midwest, the Great Lakes region, portions of the of the Northern Mississippi River Valley, and then back down here into the Plains and the Ohio River Valley, we'll be seeing a good amount of rainfall as these storm systems kind of train their way across this region here. So, that's what I've got for you guys today. We may or may not have a live stream breakdown tonight, we'll talk about it. Uh if I see up trends this evening, I I'll definitely pop on and do a stream for you guys here. But other than that, uh be safe out there. Get ready to go. Got an active pattern on the way here.

[00:10:36]Again, uh if you're in any of these risk zones, make sure you guys do in fact um uh have alerts on your phones. You guys can also sign up for weather call nextG.

[00:10:45]Uh that is the service we are partnered with. They help us uh give you guys alerts on your phones. It's basically a phone call from Mezomat whenever you get a tornado warning, severe thunderstorm warning, or anything like that. You can sign up for that underneath my profile in my bio. Uh it is $15 a year to do that. We would love to have you hop on board with that. They're a great great service uh if you don't have alerts on your phone. So other than that, we'll see you guys in the next video. Be safe and have a wonderful, wonderful