China won’t 'jeopardise' strategic partnership with Iran to help the US, analyst says

Ajouté : 2026-05-13

[00:00:00]Joining us now in the studio is Mohammed Elmasry, professor at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies. There is always a lot for the US and China to talk about.

[00:00:09]Obviously, trade is going to be a big part, but how big of a topic in these talks do you think the Iran war is likely going to be?

[00:00:16]I actually don't think it's going to be a huge part of the agenda. I thought it was interesting what Trump said in that little clip that you all just played.

[00:00:24]He said he doesn't need he doesn't need China's help on on Iran, and I think that was kind of an acknowledgement that China isn't going to help very much on on Iran. I think China, while they are being hurt to to some extent, is in a much better position than many other global players.

[00:00:45]They've been able to find workarounds.

[00:00:49]They have very large reserves. And I think more importantly, I don't think the Chinese are willing to jeopardize the relationship that they have with with Iran. I actually think they they value that. They're not allies per se, but it is a kind of strategic partnership, if if you will.

[00:01:07]And that's a kind of they see it as a an important counterbalance to US hegemony, US influence in in the region. And I just don't think that they're willing to surrender the region to the US and and Israel. If that is the case, do you think then that the United States can solve this issue, whether it be the Strait of Hormuz, whether it be the the other things that they're negotiating currently with Iran, without China's help? Even if China doesn't want to, would it help the US to get to the other side of this if they could steer China a little bit?

[00:01:43]Probably, although even there, I don't know, you know, how much the Chinese can can help. I mean, this is this is an existential battle for for the Iranians.

[00:01:57]And I think we've all seen now that there is really no military solution to Joe Hormuz. It's going to have to be a negotiated a settlement whether the Chinese play a role or not. There's going to have to be a negotiated settlement.

[00:02:12]And I think a a fundamental problem here is that Trump believes continues to believe that he has a lot of leverage over the Iranians.

[00:02:22]So he's he's treating this as a as as a fight. If I can use that analogy, he's a he's a fighter who thinks that his opponent is about to tap out, who's about to surrender. And the Iranians are not going to surrender. They believe that they have more leverage in this situation. And so Trump, to answer your question, he's he has a problem. I mean there's no there's no easy way out for him. Right. And so at this point what we have is a stalemate as we've been talking about.

[00:02:47]We've got two sides who have been passing proposals back and forth and have gotten nowhere. So who is this stalemate benefiting at this point? Who is going to resist tapping out longer, do you think?

[00:02:58]I So I would maybe reframe the the question not in terms of benefit but in terms of loss.

[00:03:04]Who stands to lose more and who, you know, who can hold out the longest? I would say that the Iranians are in a better position to play the long game and the US is probably more desperate for a for an immediate solution. You have the World Cup coming, you have this is a midterm election year.

[00:03:21]This has wrought havoc on the US politically and and economically.

[00:03:26]Clearly this isn't what Trump, you know, was bargaining for when he entered this war, I think under the influence to one extent or another of Benjamin Netanyahu.

[00:03:36]So I do think that the Iranians are better positioned to, you know, endure this over the the long at least the medium term, let's say. I mean you mentioned something a little bit earlier on that perhaps where we are now does no longer have a military solution. That this is going to have to be a negotiated settlement as we move forward. But I think one of the interesting things that we're seeing in the messaging now from both sides is this idea of how expensive this war is getting for everybody else. The US president has been talking for weeks about crippling the Iranian economy further with the blockade on the ports.

[00:04:10]We've heard Iranian officials saying American taxpayers are footing this bill. It's going to get worse for them.

[00:04:15]And the president getting on that plane said he's not so concerned about the effect this is having on tax payers because it's going to be short-lived.

[00:04:21]What does that tell us about sort of where people who are being affected by this might be are are everyday Iranians and everyday Americans really starting to feel the squeeze of what's happening here? Is that why this messaging is coming out in your estimation? Well, there's no question that people are are feeling the squeeze.

[00:04:39]I mean and on Trump's comments, I mean they're remarkable comments. I think they're completely detached from from reality. Americans are feeling the pinch. He has to care what whether he says he he does or not. He has to care about what's happening to the average American as a result of this as a result of this war. But I think maybe the more interesting comments last week from the US administration were the statements by Marco Rubio, Pete Hegseth, and Trump himself. Rubio said the war is over.

[00:05:10]Hegseth said we're not looking for a fight, which I think that's the first time he's ever said those words.

[00:05:16]And then you have Trump also indicating that the war was over. And those remarks I think were grounded in an understanding that going back to an all-out war would be way too costly for for the United States. Right. The ripple effects would be massive. Mohammed Elmasry, good to have you this morning.

[00:05:33]Thank you for being with us here.

[00:05:34]>> Thanks.