This video analyzes President Trump's 2020 visit to China, highlighting how the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz blockade created strategic leverage for China, while the Taiwan issue remained a primary diplomatic challenge; the visit marked a significant shift from the first Trump administration's confrontational approach toward seeking partnership, with business leaders like Elon Musk and Tim Cook accompanying to facilitate trade negotiations.
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Well, US President Donald Trump has departed for his highstakes 3-day visit to China. And >> this as he seeks to ramp up trade despite potential friction over Taiwan and Iran. Leaving Washington on Tuesday, Trump said that he expected a long talk with his Chinese counterpart Xiinping about Iran.
>> Well, I think number one, we're going to have a long talk about it. Uh I think he's been relatively good to be honest with you. You look at the blockade, no problems.
They get a lot of their oil from that area. We've had no problem and he's been a friend of mine. He's been somebody that we get along with.
>> Now, when asked if he needs the Chinese president to help with Iran, Trump said that he doesn't think so, going on to claim that they will win the war one way or the other.
>> We'll win it one way or the other. We'll win. We'll win it peacefully or otherwise. Uh their navy's gone, their air force is gone, every single element of their war machine is gone.
Well, this trip, the first since Trump visited Beijing in 2017, will involve high stakes talks with Xiinping on Thursday and Friday during a packed itinerary that includes a state banquet and tea reception. While trade ties between Beijing and Washington have been fraught in recent years, the two sides are currently maintaining a one-year truce in their tardiff war. Trump and she's last meeting in South Korea in October.
Trump is being accompanied in China by a large group of top US business executives including Tesla's Elon Musk and Apple's Tim Cook. Among other things that are expected to come up for discussion include Taiwan. On Monday, Trump said he would speak to Xiinping about US arms sales to Taiwan. It marked a departure from historic US insistence that it will not consult Beijing on its support to the island.
>> Trump is accompanied by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of War Pete Hexath. White House Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair among others aboard Air Force One. White House says that the first lady Melania Trump is not accompanying Donald Trump to China during this visit.
And uh to discuss more we are now being joined by Edward P. Joseph from Washington DC. He is a senior fellow at the John's Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and foreign policy analyst.
Mr. Joseph, always pleasure speaking with you. Thanks so much for making time. Uh let's quickly start off with the backdrop to this meet. 9 years there has not been a US president who's visited China. The ties nose dive during Biden's administration. The spy balloons that were found. Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan. Then of course the Taiwan Strait which remains a sticking point. That is going to be up for discussion. Uh California mayor resigning and ready to plead guilty for being an illegal agent for the Chinese government. That coming a day before this meet is now going to happen. And uh then there is the Iran war which is most recent where China does get hurt. Half of China's crude oil passes through the state of Hormuz which remains in a deadlock even now. Uh putting all of this in the backdrop how do you see these talks progressing?
>> First good to be with you as well. And I think that the key contrast here in addition to all those uh important elements that you cited particularly the uh difficulties of the USChinese relationship under the Biden era is we have a sharp change >> from President Trump's first administration. We have a sharp change in his posture and his attitude. Uh there was a very aggressive approach from President Trump towards China.
there was a a strong element of identifying China as an adversary to the United States and in fact that was very influential and carried over into the Biden administration influencing that uh posture as well that President Biden took towards Beijing. But uh in his uh second term now uh President Trump has backed off that and he has this clear aspiration to uh have a partnership relationship with China and to uh emphasize his uh personal connection as you heard in the report uh uh that you showed earlier uh with uh President Xiinping. So that's really the the odd dynamic here that we have this sharp 180°ree change in posture from the first administration of President Trump towards the second. Of course uh President Trump did hike tariffs >> but there was a meeting between the two leaders in South Korea uh at which they uh last fall agreed on a a deal.
Basically, China agreed to give the US access to uh these rare earth materials and uh President Trump reduced the tariffs. So that we had the already the basis of a a breakthrough in that key dispute on tariffs. But uh in this meeting of course we would be talking about all the standard issues uh trade tariffs uh cyber security uh potential nuclear weapons Taiwan. We would be talking about all of those issues except as you correctly noted the war in Iran will be overshadowing the uh these talks and that will be a a primary question despite what you heard there from President Trump. This will be a primary question between the >> and given the entourage that's that's traveling with Trump the CEOs going there is clear intent on locking in some deals which Trump anyways you know specializes in the >> absolutely and you're absolutely right about that please >> right and now of course coming to the specifics as you've just mentioned the Iran war is going to overshadow a lot of the other uh issues and the agendas which are on the table now we're just curious to know how do you think the talks are going to feature in this particular summit Because we know that China it has deep strategic ties with Iran. And do you think that now given the equation and the backdrop that Shivan was just mentioning is she entering the summit with more leverage than Trump anticipated perhaps?
>> That is a great question and the answer to it is not really clear. Uh so Beijing would like to approach this as if it has more leverage than the United States because of the predicament the United States faces in uh with Iran and in particular on this question of the straight of Hormuz. But since Iran closed the straight of Hormuz, President Trump has instituted a blockade of the the strait which has proven to be militarily successful and effective. And that means it creates very strong difficulties for China, which as you also correctly noted depends on the strait for much of its oil. And uh contrary to some early reporting that suggested well the Chinese have a lot of strategic reserve of oil and they can get through this and weather this difficulty. In fact the uh blockage in the strait is inflicting significant pain on key Chinese industries. And we so we know Beijing wants this matter resolved wants this uh the straight of hormones open. And in fact, the Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi recently met just last week met with the Iranian foreign minister and and uh the Chinese foreign minister Wangi stated very clearly China wants to see the straight of Hormuz opened. So the the dynamics will be very interesting uh there.
Obviously, this will be a private uh meeting and conversation between presidents Trump and she uh Xiinping and they will I believe be talking in very concrete terms about uh what it will take to uh to get a breakthrough on the straight and a breakthrough on as well on Iran's nuclear deal uh nuclear program uh there in Iran. And I think again contrary to what President Trump was saying, he will be looking to Beijing to add to uh the pressure on Thran to come to a deal. Please.
>> Uh Mr. Joseph, regarding Taiwan, if I could get your assessment on what China would be expecting from the US President Wong, he said this was on a recent call with the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio that Taiwan was the biggest risk in China US relations and the Chinese foreign minister called on the US to open up new space for China US cooperation. Do you feel that space for cooperation can only start once there is some resolve on the Taiwan issue or is it too early to resolve something like Taiwan which is where China gets belligerent if you touch Taiwan? Uh it's too little a time period for Taiwan to get resolved where you feel the gates will open for conversation. Please go ahead.
>> I think uh it's the latter. I I I don't expect uh some uh major change in the US posture on Taiwan. uh regardless of what Beijing wants. Although with President Trump, of course, this is always a wild card. You never know with President Trump, he can, as we say, you know, he can shoot from the hip. But uh China would like the US to evolve from its current position which says that it uh does not support independence Taiwan and and Beijing would like uh the United States to say that it opposes independence uh for Taiwan. Uh most US presidents would not entertain that change with President Trump. You never know if he thinks that China is giving him some other concession in another sphere. Uh we don't know. He can say, "Well, who cares? It's just some words."
>> But uh in principle, I do not expect uh some uh sharp dramatic change in the US posture towards Taiwan with the uh caveat that with President Trump we can never be sure. Please.
>> I I totally take your point. Uh Mr. Joseph, thanks so much for making time for us. Always a pleasure speaking with you. There will be more to discuss as this summit gets on board. Uh that's Edward P. Joseph joining us.
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