NEW Tropical Trouble Is Emerging

Added: 2026-06-01

[00:00:00]Big changes to the data down in the tropics could have significant implications to the forecast for folks along the Gulf Coast and through the Southeast. Plus, the risk of tornadoes and severe weather is on the rise for some over the next 48 hours. Break down all the details of that. Plus, take a look at potential rainfall totals and see who is most at risk of flooding through the weekend and into next week.

[00:00:19]Got all of that and more coming up right now in today's video.

[00:00:23]Welcome to the channel, friends. I'm your host, meteorologist Jason Pritchard. Happy Saturday to you. Hope your weekend's off to a good start.

[00:00:28]Well, the buzz has been all about the tropics in the weather world over the past 24 to 72 to 96 hours. And rightly so. We've seen model data show sort of this on again off again. Will it develop? Want it? Will it develop? Want it down here in the Gulf. And now we have something else of interest off the southeast coast potentially. So, we're going to take a look at both of these items of interest and see what's going on. We've seen some changes in the last 36 hours and that could have implications for folks with interest in the Gulf and along the Gulf and around the the parts of the Southeast. We've also got a an increasing threat of severe weather. We're going to take a look at that. We're going to start with our flow pattern here, okay? And we've been looking at this over the last couple of days, so not going to spend a great deal of time on it. Go back and watch some of those other videos, but just to set the stage for what's going on and where something might go should it develop. Got a big anomalous ridge up in central Canada. And that is just sitting here anchored and it's allowing for troughing up and down the east coast. You can see that troughing working in here with the oranges getting displaced with some of these whites and especially the blues as you get on up here into the north. Got an upper level low that's it's going to be responsible for some severe weather later and potentially some flooding rains up into parts of Montana as it sort of sits there and spins trapped by that ridge.

[00:01:41]As we head on through Saturday and Sunday and Monday, look at that ridge just strengthen up here as it begins to close off. It what it does is it allows high pressure to build in out of Canada and allows the ridge to extend back with more vigor. We'll see continue to see little pieces of energy move through the flow and uh impact New England and the northeast with some showers through the week. But look at this. It just sort of sits there and stays. And over time, that ridge begins to extend farther and farther to the south. We'll eventually see a piece of energy move through, maybe break off and form a low pressure off the Carolina coast. We're going to take a look at that. The models are showing that. And as we get on out toward mid and end of next week, look at this. Look what happens. We sort of collapse the flow over the Gulf. We've got a trough over the east coast just off the east coast. We've got another trough over Bajav California. Upper level wind is not all that impressive here across the Gulf Coast. So anything or in the Gulf of America here, anything that develops in here is not going to be moving around with any sort of purpose in terms of its hair on fire. It's going to be slow and steady wherever it goes and sort of meander around. All right?

[00:02:47]So there's just not a lot of flow here.

[00:02:48]That's what the upper level pattern is telling us. Now there'll be maybe a little bit more direction at the surface and some of these weak systems are shallow and can be a little more easily directed by the surface. But uh we looked at wind shear yesterday. As this anything in the Gulf or off the southeast gets going, there's just going to be a lot of wind shear around. So tropical systems like warm water, which we have in place, moisture, which I'm about to show you, and wind shear that's low and and and and if you're expecting a big tropical system, you want to see low windshare. We're going to see windshare increasing in these areas. So just know that is the background state.

[00:03:21]Now, watch this. dry air coming in out of the north associated with a push kind of wedging down the eastern sections of the Appalachins. But there's going to be a boundary between dry air and moist air and that's going to set up through the Tennessee Valley up here into the Midwest back into parts of the southeast. It's going to kind of oscillate back and forth. Look, it tries to get back to the east and to the north before another push begins to push in.

[00:03:44]That's going to have implications for what happens later on in the period as we get on into late next week. This is Monday afternoon and we're watching moisture. You see all this bright uh green down here in the Gulf of cold rain and off the southeast coast. A lot of moisture here. We even see a low pressure trying to get together as we head on into Monday off the southeast coast and that will kind of scoot east as moisture continues to build in the Gulf. This the models were showing this moisture began to consolidate and move into the southeast and southern sections of the states yesterday. Well, now we've got more dry air that's pushing down hard from the north. Look at this high pressure coming in. Dry air coming in from the north. And look what the European does eventually. It sort of shunts this little wave that it's trying to get together down here in the Gulf off to the east with no real big flow here other than this front coming in and sort of acting as a block for any moisture getting in. That could have uh implications to keep the big flooding rains a little bit farther to the south, maybe even out into the Gulf entirely as a new system begins to form off the Carolina coast. The European keeps this far enough offshore so that maybe the Outer Banks get scraped with some rain and the wind. But I'll show you what the GFS is doing here in a second. There's a European and eventually we get some rain over Florida back into the Caribbean.

[00:04:57]There goes that low pressure scooting out toward Bermuda. Look what the GFS does though as we head through the period. Low pressure develops and kind of scoots east and then a new system develops right along the shore. A lot of moisture in the Gulf, but just can't quite make it into the southern states before that dry air gets wrapped in.

[00:05:14]You've got high pressure coming out of the north, like I said, clockwise flow around that, counterclockwise flow around this low keeps that dry air moving to the south and just shutting off the Gulf. But look what's going on here. This This thing is winding up along the Cape Patter coast, the North Carolina coast around Cape Padis. And this would really buff it eastern South Carolina, central and eastern North Carolina, Eastern Virginia, the Tidewater, maybe up to DC and Baltimore, getting you guys some wind and some rain and really batter the coast there. And then it moves the system on up and we finally get a return flow with some moisture getting into the uh mids south here and the deep south up into the uh arletex and mid Mississippi Valley by the time we get into next Saturday and Sunday. A lot of moisture building here along the crossed southeast. But no big tropical activity in the Gulf the way it looks now with the new data that's coming in. We'll continue to watch it.

[00:06:04]That's why you're subscribed to the channel so you can make sure you stay in the loop with all of these things that are going on. The data changes regularly and we have to look at all of these different elements of it. Sea surface temperature anomalies warmer than normal in the Gulf. We got temperatures in the low to mid 80s and off the southeast coast along the Gulf Stream and in the uh sections of the Atlantic just north of the main development region. So anything that would get going here would have favorable water temperatures, but uh shear is not going to be all that favorable. Moisture profiles could be for the central Gulf and over across the southeast, too. So, we've got a couple of factors in favor and a couple of factors out of favor. Right now, as we head through the afternoon, I'm going to show you this. This is the European Ensemble sort of member placement of all the different low pressures that all the different members are seeing at a specific point in time. There are 51 ensemble members. And so, where we see big clusters of lows and you can see these as we head through the evening today. Little low pressure getting it here act together in the plains. and another one another center up here in the northern sections of uh the Rocky Mountains just emerging into the plains as well. But watch what happens as we get on in toward Monday and Tuesday. We start to see some L's develop. We saw that weak low pressure off the southeast coast, but nothing in the Gulf as of Monday or Tuesday. More agreement that we'll see uh low pressure off the southeast coast. Watch this though as we head on in toward the Wednesday to Thursday time frame. Look at this high pressure across the north. That would block anything from coming in here as that high pressure builds in. But we only see a couple of L's here down in the Gulf. So, not many members out of 51. Only two showing any sort of development here, but several showing development off the southeast coast and out into uh the Atlantic. All right. So, lot of agreement potentially that we're going to see a storm develop here. How close will it be to the coast? That still remains to be seen. The European model doesn't really keep it all that close to the coast. As a matter of fact, if we watch here Sunday, see some showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday on into Monday across parts of the Southeast. And that will continue.

[00:08:06]Little weak area of low pressure. There it is developing some rain out in the Atlantic. And here's some showers and thunderstorms in the Gulf, but nothing organized, just moisture and uh plenty of moisture in the Gulf. And that will continue to just meander around a bit.

[00:08:19]And look what happens as we get on in toward Wednesday into Thursday. Low pressure, significant low pressure developing off the Cape Patter coast, giving scraping the coast with some rain. European wants to try to develop a low in the Gulf, but it doesn't really get anywhere. It sort of just sits there and rots away. Maybe a little wraparound moisture into Louisiana. That's what the European is showing. GFS not really showing a lot of development in the Gulf, just moisture. But look what it does here. It creates a little bit of a weak area of low pressure and then boom, it strengthens it up eastern South Carolina, North Carolina into the southern areas of Virginia with rain, wind and then eventually it brings it on up the coast and as we head on through time, moisture from the Gulf makes it into Texas and parts of Louis Louisiana and the Arletex. But that's not till next weekend and again things can change that far out. All right, so that's what's going on there. U hurricane center still is not expecting anything to develop anywhere over the next 7 days. If a low pressure develops out across the southeast, well, it doesn't look like it's going to be a tropical system at this point. Could it be a hybrid type system? Potentially. We'll have to watch it and see, but still a long ways to go, but just keep in mind that we've got a couple of areas that we'll continue to watch. Make sure you're subscribed and we'll continue to keep you posted on all of that activity as we head through the next couple of days and uh through the week. So, now we're going to take a look at who might see rain and severe weather over the next 24 to 48 hours back out in New England.

[00:09:44]Okay, here's our vapor loop. And boy, a couple interesting things stand out here. Look at this swirl up in New England bringing y'all some clouds and showers. That's an upper level system or a mid-level system. We have another one of those back out here over parts of the northern four corners region just spinning, bringing in dry air into the four corners area. Another low pressure trying to get together across the plains today and a little piece of energy down in Texas bringing some clouds and maybe some showers through there and a frontal zone sort of bicting the country like this. Moist air to the south, a little drier to the north and clouds and storms and rain along that boundary. That's what we've got going on in the mid levels today. Here is the um weatherwise alerts app and few flood watches out there. flood watch expiring here in Tennessee in uh few hours. And then we've got a flood watch up here for that area of low pressure sort of spinning around bringing spokes of energy around enhancing rainfall up in northern Montana. So that's going to be in place for the next couple of days. Not many other alerts out here to be found. But we do have the potential for severe weather from Rapid City down to Lexington all the way into northern Oklahoma where the risk is the highest.

[00:10:50]This is a slight risk level three out of five marginal risk around that all the way through near Fort Stockton up toward Witchah Falls, Fateville, Arkansas, and then back through much of eastern South Dakota into um parts of Montana as well up toward mile city and Gillette. We're looking at the potential for tornadoes here in Lexington and down into northern Nebraska or southern Nebraska and northern Kansas to be maximized here. We could see an EF2 tornado or stronger.

[00:11:18]where we've got some mid-level wind shear. It's not all that strong.

[00:11:22]Photographs are kind of marginal in this area, but if we get any supercells to develop, certainly could see that enhancement of spin, and a couple of those could drop a tornado or two. Large hail and wind could be a problem. Wind could be a big problem in and around northern u well, we'll call it southern Nebraska, northern and central Kansas into central Oklahoma. So, the models are actually showing some pretty decent clusters in here. And then hail could be a problem as well with some pretty big hailstones up to two inches in diameter in those same areas. All right, so that's what's going on day two. Tomorrow looking at that weather pushing just to the east from central South Dakota all the way into Missouri, much of Missouri, eastern Kansas with the center around Sou Falls, Sous City, and Omaha right along the boundary of these states here.

[00:12:07]Okay, so that's what we're looking at tomorrow. Could see a tornado in this area. This might get upgraded a little bit if we get a better profile of the atmosphere uh tomorrow. See more spin showing up and wind and hail could both be a problem with some pretty big hailstones in these areas as supercells and clusters begin to form and get together here in this area. Now, this is the rapid refresh and it is showing as we head through the afternoon. Watch what happens. We're around midday. We see showers breaking out. Look at this.

[00:12:33]That spin moves off the northeast. Gives you a nice day from the northeast to the Great Lakes, upper southeast. And where the boundary is with that dry air south of there is where we find showers and thunderstorms. Florida back into the Tennessee Valley, Missouri and up into Iowa with scattered thunderstorms in the northern plains and rain in the around the Bitterroots and up into uh the northern mountains up here and uh Glacier National Park, places like that.

[00:12:56]Look at this big supercell and and clusters starting to break out. Look at these sections here in Oklahoma and Nebraska through the afternoon. Start to see some big clusters down here. This would really enhance the wind and hail threat in these areas and a few supercells and clusters uh from Nebraska into um into South Dakota. Could bring some thunderstorms or will bring some thunderstorms if they're supercellsells.

[00:13:17]They're thunderstorming. All right. With hail uh and wind and potentially tornado or two and then things should develop into line segments and kind of line out as we head through the evening hours.

[00:13:27]That'll hold together through the nighttime hours. You wake up tomorrow with some rain around in the southeast and up into and along that frontal zone through the, you know, Delta, not the Delta region, but the lower mid Mississippi Valley and on up into the cornbt, Midwest and over into northern Montana. Everybody else out west, the south looking pretty good tomorrow as we head out the door for church. Due points going to be high across the south and up into the plains. It's going to feel muggy, muggy, muggy. My friend Teresa here in the architect says very muggy.

[00:13:56]It is very muggy. Due points are high all the way from Tennessee, southern North Carolina and to the south. But here comes relief. Dry air from the north, dry air from the west kind of pinching it off. And look at this. It sort of fights back. Dry line moves back to the west. And we get a little bit of a push back from the moist air. And then here comes the next round as we get on into Tuesday into Wednesday. Really get that dry air push and high pressure bringing that dry air out of Canada all the way down the eastern seabboard. And so we'll get some relief as we head on in. Unless you're in Florida and Texas and up into the plains, we'll get some relief from the mugginess as we get into mid next week. And then finally, as far as rainfall totals go, GFS ensemble, we'll go through the weekend. Could see an inch or so through the weekend down here across the southeast. And of course, a little bit more than that, maybe up to two inches up into Montana and the Dakotas. You can see the scale down here at the bottom. The yellows, uh, kind of that manila color, an inch or more. Red colors, you start to get into the deep reds, we're around three inches and stuff like that. So, that's what we're looking at. blues half an inch and that will continue to pile up uh slowly here in the middle of the country down to the southeast through next week and then as we get on beyond the twoe period or get out into the twoe period we start to see things really pile up and on those same areas that is the GFS ensemble does the European ensemble agree well let's get on the right run here and we can see if it does indeed agree and it does indeed agree with that flow pattern just persisting northern plains and down into the south and southeast east looking at the line share of the rain and up here in New England too with folks energy riding around that ridge and around that trough up there. So that's our forecast for today. Hope you've uh hope it's covered what you wanted to see. If you have any questions, of course, let me know down in the comment section. Let me know where you're commenting from. And also if there's anything I can be a prayer about, please put it down there for me.

[00:15:40]Make sure you subscribe to the channel, like the content if you like it, and certainly be ready to tune back in because I'll keep you updated on those tropics and whatever else is going on out there that you need to know about.

[00:15:48]We'll be having another video in the morning. In the meantime, stay sharp, chase hard, have a great afternoon. Tune back in tomorrow and we'll see you soon.