LIVE | Has Vijay's political test floored AIADMK? | The Federal

Añadido: 2026-05-14

[00:00:01]Hello and a warm welcome to Federal special program Capital Beat. TVK Chief C. Joseph Vijay won the trust vote for his coalition government securing 144 votes against 118 majority mark in the 234-member Tamil Nadu assembly. But during the floor test, TVK secured 144 votes in favor. His party and the alliance partners, that is Congress, left parties, VCK, and IUML voted in support of the motion along with 25 rebel AIADMK MLAs and one AMMK MLA. Now, meanwhile, the biggest drama unfolded when 22 EPS loyalist AIADMK MLAs voted against the motion while five MLAs remained neutral or abstained, including PMK's four MLAs and BJP's lone MLA. Now, at the same time, 59 DMK MLAs led by Udhayanidhi Stalin staged a walkout before the voting process began. So, Vijay has he announced his triumph and he said that his government is going to help people may call his government a minority government if they wish, but he would continue to protect the interests of the minorities while governing for everyone equally. But what has happened in the wake of this floor test? While the floor test has cemented TVK's chief position as the chief minister, but it has shattered the structural unity of the opposition and exposed its internal collapse before the entire nation. And this is what we are going to discuss because the most glaring example was the dramatic collapse unfolding inside the AIADMK. Despite an official party whip issued by AIADMK general secretary Edappadi Palaniswami directing MLAs to vote against the TVK government, 25 rebel AIADMK legislatures openly revolted and voted in favor of the Vijays of Vijays government. So, we'll try and understand this floor test. What are the inequities which this floor test has brought about? Was it a survival test in a way for AIADMK much more than the TVK? So, we'll try and understand this. Joining me this evening is S R Nivasan, editor-in-chief of The Federal. Shanisa, thank you so much for joining.

[00:02:33]Yeah, hello Nilo.

[00:02:34]Yes, [clears throat] sir.

[00:02:35]So, how would you look at the floor test of TVK chief Vijay? Of course, he has won and won with a greater majority than anyone would have expected, but what is the biggest takeaway according to you from this floor test?

[00:02:51]Yeah, so you're right.

[00:02:53]The floor test was on the expected expected lines and he got more more majority than we thought, but more or less it was clear yesterday evening itself that the rebel AIADMK MLAs might back him. What is really surprising is these five neutral you know, those who did not say yes or no, which includes one BJP and four PMK legislatures. And that's an interesting aspect what has happened.

[00:03:25]Now, why this whole thing? I mean, whether on the one side were we looking at the floor test for Vijay, but actually it has now become more of a floor test also for Edappadi Palaniswami. His party has vertically split in the assembly.

[00:03:46]Both, you know, Edappadi has given a letter to the speaker saying that you know naming his you know the party whip and his name is Agri Krishnamurthy. He's a party whip, but then there was another letter given by the rebel party leaders headed by C. V. Shanmugam naming V. Elumalai as their whip.

[00:04:13]So what has now happened is uh both there are two whips in the house whip uh and therefore the MLAs have voted. Uh now it really is a very confusing situation.

[00:04:28]They outside they later held a press conference. Both Edappadi held a press conference and also the rebels held a press conference where they are saying they're not talking about a split in the party. They are saying we are trying to unite the party. So they are still not out of the party. Edappadi dismissed this whole thing as inside the assembly while speaking he said there is an internal problem within the party and the speaker should not allow you know is another party leader to speak after he has spoken. After Edappadi S. P. Velumani was given a chance to speak which he resisted.

[00:05:05]So the split is inevitable it seems, but then as of now they are still saying that you know the rebels are saying we are trying to unite the party, but the conditions put forward by them may not be acceptable to Edappadi because they are saying we should unite all the factions including breakaway faction of headed by T. T. V. Dinakaran which is a he has formed a party of his own called AMMK and also V. K. Sasikala former you know associate of Jayalalithaa who is also now out in the wilderness and another member if you know former Chief Minister O. Panneerselvam has now joined DMK. So, therefore out of question. Also, they named Sengottaiyan who's now the main he's in the cabinet of TVK.

[00:05:57]They said even he should come back to our fold. So, these are impossible things which they were talking, but obviously what they're aiming at they're targeting at is to oust Edappadi as the head of AIADMK.

[00:06:13]But, there is other background of that this whole thing which we must go to. There are very interesting you know statements today we heard. One, a serious attempt was made to prop up AIADMK government with DMK backing.

[00:06:32]Which is a this stunning revelation was made by AIADMK rebels. They said an attempt was made to form a government headed by Edappadi Palaniswami AIADMK government backed by DMK.

[00:06:46]Now, it fell through because the rebels resisted saying that we cannot associate ourselves with DMK because we are the natural rivals and therefore such a situation is a very odd situation and therefore they resisted resisted it fiercely they resisted.

[00:07:06]Because of this the resistance that attempt was given up.

[00:07:11]Uh Interestingly, while addressing the press conference one of the rebel persons also said that there was a blessing from the top. What he meant was that the blessing was also from the BJP in Delhi.

[00:07:26]And though they have only lone MLA in the house, they clearly BJP was encouraging an AIADMK government headed by Edappadi backed by DMK.

[00:07:38]Now, the rebels claimed that they opposed this because they didn't want such an association. Then after a day or two another attempt was made which was to prop up VCK president uh you know, as the chief ministerial candidate Thol. Thirumavalavan as a chief ministerial candidate backed with an outside support or I don't know which form but supported both for ADMK and DMK.

[00:08:06]Now the rebel today, you know, one of the rebels while addressing the press conference said, "Look, we were ready for that but Edappadi Palaniswami wasn't ready for that. He said, "Look, this shouldn't be. If there is anybody who should become chief minister, I'll become chief minister. Otherwise, we'll sit in the opposition."

[00:08:27]So, these rebels claimed that that's why we decided that we'll break and then go and support TVK. Mhm. So, there are wheels within wheels. There are lots of things which seem to be happening. So, ADMK which is Tamil Nadu's which used to be the largest party even bigger than DMK is in deep trouble.

[00:08:47]But Chetty sir, what happens to these rebel AIDMK MLAs who have gone and supported the TVK government? Now, are they going to be part of the TVK cabinet? Because a lot of TV channels I saw and on the mainstream media these speculations had begun that they might form they might be part of the cabinet. Now, if that is the case, what will happen to Congress Congresses and what will happen to the left parties? Do you see that possibility?

[00:09:15]No, there is a problem with even Vijay has to sort out.

[00:09:20]Today, the Congress one of the Congress speakers when he stood up in the house supporting him in the confidence motion said that Mr. Vijay, you must ensure that you continue maintain a secular government.

[00:09:36]Now, Vijay in his stood up and answered with an equal emphasis that this government, what comes way, will always be a secular government.

[00:09:47]Having made this statement, if he is, you know, getting support from the NDA block, which is the rebel MLAs, then obviously he is diluting his own statement.

[00:10:00]Uh and on the top of it, he is today he got a reprieve from BJP also and also get a reprieve from PMK who are all constituents of NDA who chose to, uh you know, remain neutral during the voting.

[00:10:14]So, eventually for somebody who claimed that DMK is a political rival and BJP is the ideological enemy, and then coming together of this, uh you know, um alliance uh rebels as as a as a partners in the government is going to be a sticky issue. There are also at least two people currently in the rebel uh group who are tainted. One of them is facing a CBI case. The other one is facing corruption case. So, uh somebody who promised that he's going to give a clean government and uh corruption is going fighting corruption is going to be his main motto. These are pretty sticky issues for uh Vijay to, you know, uh maneuver because he has come with a clean image, clean slate.

[00:11:06]So, people expect him to provide a clean clean government. But, if he has ministers, so there was also probably a discussion saying that, "Okay, these tainted ministers will be kept out and others could be brought in." But, unfortunately, they are the one who are reading the leading the rebellion. Uh so, so how is he going to manage that is going to be another issue.

[00:11:25]So, uh if these people also come in the camp, then the DMK's allegation, yesterday P. Wilson, the member of parliament, even tweeted saying that, "Look, we told you Congress and BJP are now in the same camp."

[00:11:39]So, so so that's another sticky issue.

[00:11:42]So, how they're going to sort out is you know, is going to be very interesting.

[00:11:48]So, what happens to the rival parties?

[00:11:51]Are they completely exposed? And how will the people in Tamil Nadu look at these rival parties now? Of course, TVK has got a comfortable majority. They'll continue to rule. But what happens to parties like DMK, AIADMK? And coming first to the AIADMK, is it just the end of the road now? Or is it just the beginning of the end of the road for AIADMK?

[00:12:14]Well, AIADMK certainly looks to be in a very difficult position. Yes, it seems that it's beginning of the end of the road unless something drastic happens. I I feel Tamil Nadu has always been a two-party rule. Uh it was split between DMK and AIADMK, but with the arrival of TVK, probably that thing is lost now.

[00:12:36]So, certainly this is a very sticky situation for them for AIADMK. But you know, the real question is whether this issue will be sorted out here or you know, most probably it will reach the courts.

[00:12:50]Because that's what it appears to be because both the factions have written to the speaker, and speaker today has taken no stand on this so far.

[00:12:59]Now, there is only one There is one case which happened in the case of Shiv Sena in Maharashtra. Now, what happened is there the Shiv Sena and Uddhav Shiv Sena and the other faction headed by Shinde, they both split.

[00:13:16]Shinde faction claimed that they have the support of the legislative party.

[00:13:21]Uh but the the political party was not in the picture. Only the legislative party was the the had the MLAs with them.

[00:13:35]And on the basis of that, the BJP government was there. So, normally what happens is it's the political party head, in this case Edappadi, who's authorized to nominate a whip. And that whip is a chief whip and his writ should be followed by the MLAs.

[00:13:56]In this case, it is Edappadi who has issued a whip.

[00:13:59]Same thing happened in the case of Maharashtra. Shinde faction claimed that they are the real Shiv Sena. Now, how do you determine which is the real Shiv Sena? On the basis of the legislative party's strength or the political party's strength?

[00:14:13]The case went to Supreme Court. Supreme Court sent it back to the speaker saying that he should decide. And the speaker decided that, you know, the the principle should be legislative party. He took a lot of time and then he said it's a legislative party which is the principal component.

[00:14:31]And therefore it should be recognized.

[00:14:33]But then this has again been challenged by Shiv Sena Uddhav Shiv Sena in the Supreme Court and the issue is still pending. So, it could be some kind of a protracted, you know, legal case between the two factions, legislative faction the two legislative factions. But the real game may start unfortunately outside in the in the party structure because the party you know who's got the control of the party?

[00:15:06]Because as these legislative developments were happening, as the rebels were holding a meeting in Shanmugam's house, you know, C.V.

[00:15:15]Shanmugam's house, parallelly Edappadi has called the his office bearers from the districts, from other places for a meeting. So, who has got the real control over the party?

[00:15:28]Uh so far Edappadi has the control over the party. He kept the control all these days. But if he still manages, then he may have a upper hand. But in any case, the this will be a protracted uh issue which will go into courts. And then how much interest BJP is showing in this is also very interesting.

[00:15:49]Right. But is it a similar kind of a phase what we saw when Jayalalithaa died and there was a leadership and a power tussle within then Palaniswami came over. And now when Palaniswami and now the the party is split almost, what kind of challenges now do you see? Of course there's a protracted legal battle which the party will brace up with. But what else can we expect now coming out from the AIADMK camp?

[00:16:14]See, AIADMK this is perhaps the fifth split now. The first split happened when Sasikala went out, second happened when TTV went out, third when OPS went out.

[00:16:26]Now fourth is now yesterday's uh the rebel. So nearly uh now the party is in five parts now. EPS one faction and rebels the other.

[00:16:36]So the party has been constantly splitting. But the reasons were different. You see, all along when the split happened, the only thing the question was over the leadership.

[00:16:45]Edappadi managed to oust There was a the both were joint uh general of the party and Edappadi managed to outwit OPS and he became the total leader of the party and he also became the chief minister. So he held the command both over party and the government. And later when he was in opposition, there was a fight for the symbol and the control of the party.

[00:17:09]Again Edappadi managed to wrest control over that and he has an absolute control right now.

[00:17:15]But the split has again raised a question mark that this process may once again who holds the symbol who holds the control over the party all these issues will come up once again. But certainly it is at a party who should be in serious trouble because he's been the one person who's been constantly resisting any attempt for unity which even BJP tried very hard.

[00:17:41]Twice they tried so that all the factions come together but he has been resisting.

[00:17:46]He even resisted Annamalai because Annamalai and him didn't get along the BJP former BJP chief. So BJP decided to pull him back tactically.

[00:17:59]Annamalai was you know had to step down from chief minister from the from being chief of the state unit of the BJP.

[00:18:09]Perhaps it's a tactical move.

[00:18:11]BJP even tried that so that all the factions could come together but Edappadi somehow has not been very very adamant. So I think it's really now going to be how they deal with you know Edappadi and whether the question is if the ADMK party breaks which is already seemed to be the signs are very clear how they are going to back TVK because right now as of now today he went through the without any hitch he went through the you know the trust vote but in the coming days after 6 months or later whenever crucial bill comes other activities happen if a whip is issued how these people are going to vote and how it it's going to turn up in the house is going to be very important. So I think it could be a protracted legal issue outside but also the continuity of instability of the government inside because you see all these MLAs who are backing uh TVK from outside other than Congress, they're all still in the grip of DMK because they're all part of the DMK alliance. Yes.

[00:19:23]>> So, there is a there is a bit lot of question mark here as well.

[00:19:28]On the stability of the government.

[00:19:29]But Shiri sir, do you also believe that, you know, there there might be an Of course, this is a speculation, but 6 months down the line many political analysts have been saying that you see that there will be uh TVK will go for a fresh mandate. And uh because DMK said that we will observe uh the Vijay's government for 6 months, and then we will decide our course of action. So, is there a possibility of uh TVK going for a fresh mandate?

[00:19:54]Yes, that is one possibility.

[00:19:56]Internally, the party is already discussing. There are advisers who are telling him, "Look, if uh the best is to dissolve uh recommend a dissolution and then go for another election.

[00:20:09]Uh but I'm sure all politicians who are elected all the MLAs don't want that.

[00:20:14]DMK doesn't want uh because uh it is going through the another election process, a very tough one.

[00:20:21]So, uh but on the other hand, there is no stable government here. That is also a problem.

[00:20:27]Yes, there is a point of view or a thinking going within TVK, uh should we just put an end to this by calling for other election. Uh but that's just a you know, discussion point. Right now, I don't think there is any uh you know, movement on that because it's just been two or three, you know, only today has won the trust vote. So, it's a bit early too early to say all this.

[00:20:52]But there is certainly a thinking.

[00:20:54]Right. But uh hasn't this uh election in Tamil Nadu been a very unprecedented election in terms of uh the drama which we have seen unfolding both within the ruling side as well as the rival parties. How they have got together, jostled against each other, and then finally to expose themselves like never before.

[00:21:15]That's true.

[00:21:17]It's been never like this because it's a hung assembly and nobody has got a clear majority. We are seeing this kind of situation. See, in the past what has happened is at least one side, you know, there was a pre-poll coalition which has helped all the other formulations which helped to form a stable government. This time what has happened is there is a vertical split.

[00:21:40]If Vijaya has managed 100 and, you know, 20 seats support of so many, but on the other side the numbers aren't so big because it's become a, you know, three-way split. And therefore not enough number to form another coalition or another government. And like I told you, they tried various options. They even audacious option of combining DMK and ADMK. That was also tried. To prop up VCK was also tried. So, they did did try everything, but they didn't arrive anywhere. So, finally they decided to back TVK because that's also the mandate, actually.

[00:22:18]But it's not a clear mandate. It is short of 10 to 12 seats. He inched very close. So, it's a very unprecedented situation Tamil Nadu is facing. Um, you know, this kind of thing wasn't seen earlier. So, so that's why uh, this serious talk that should the house be dissolved. Uh, that's a that's one discussion which is going within the TVK ranks.

[00:22:42]Right.

[00:22:43]All right. So, interesting turn of events there, but finally TVK has won the floor test today, and he says that he will protect the minority government.

[00:22:51]But can he protect his own government at least for 6 months? That's a million-dollar question. Thank you, sir, so much for joining. Thank you.