On China’s Lagging Stock Market & An AI Chokepoint

Añadido: 2026-05-30

[00:00:14]Hello everybody. It's uh Tuesday, May 26th, 11:00 a.m. here in Long Island.

[00:00:21]And uh I'm very happy to uh say that Max is here. I don't think he's paying much attention as you can see. and uh he's there uh with his uh Yardi research blanket. The rest of it says Yardeni research. So uh anyways he uh he finds comfort uh that that you know you know everybody's got their their little security blanket. So that's his uh mine too I should say since u yard research has been a good source of um uh fun uh professionally um and and so on. Uh but uh let's get uh let's get to the point.

[00:00:58]Uh oh yeah, I forgot the weather. The weather it's um we had a real uh wet uh Memorial Day, so that was a wipeout. And um didn't do much other than uh go go go out to see a movie. Saw the Devil Wears Prada 2. It was okay.

[00:01:16]Wasn't wasn't wasn't great. Uh I'll review it when I have a chance. Um and uh other than that um it's back to work.

[00:01:26]Uh and the market uh is uh working sort of kind of uh it's kind of a mixed story. It looks like the Magnificent 7 are having mostly a good day and the rest of the market's kind of doing nothing. Uh I get the big question of course is do we have a deal or or not?

[00:01:44]Uh deal or or no deal and u the answer to that is nobody seems to know. Um the president uh thinks there's going to be a deal but he keeps uh saying that we're on the edge of a deal and then he kept kind of backing off and say well there's really no rush to do a deal and um you know we want to get a good deal and a good deal will be good for everybody and if we don't have a good deal we've got no deal. So deal or or no deal we'll we'll see. The markets uh obviously since we made a low on March 30th uh have been anticipating that there will be a deal and that the price of oil will will come down. Uh I I think we all have to be kind of amazed uh why the price of oil hasn't gone up a heck of a lot more.

[00:02:31]Uh I mean when the war first broke out all the headlines were this is 20% of global oil was locked in the the Persian Gulf because because of the war. Uh and uh then things uh didn't get any better.

[00:02:47]The US blockaded Iran's shipping and uh Iran basically in effect shut shut the straight and now they're talking about the straight being theirs.

[00:03:02]They're going to manage it. They're going to charge a security fee, whatever, and only ships that they approve of can can go through. And of course that's totally unacceptable unacceptable to the United States and just about every other country around the world. The free navigation is something that um every everybody takes quite quite seriously. Though one has to say that the Chinese aren't taking uh free navigation very seriously in the South China Sea. Uh but uh that's that's a whole another story and we don't have to go there uh right right now. So um the war is still going on. uh the market's uh doing what the market has often done and that is view geopolitical uh crisis as buying opportunities and so um uh that that's what's what that's been the case so far. uh price of oil uh is um now what this morning slightly below below 100 and everybody thinks that uh you know if the war were to come to an end tomorrow and the straight were to be to to open that it would still take uh quite some time to get everything back to normal the oil market uh you know people are asking well if that happens how low could the price get well it's not going to go back to 67 to $60 $70 $20. I think everybody would agree with that. Um, sure feels like as though it could go back to $80, which uh again would be quite remarkable given the damage that's been done in the Middle East. Uh the fact that uh oil tanks are basically uh empty and will need to be refilled. Strategic petroleum reserves will need to be refilled. And of course, everybody's going to want to have even more strategic petroleum reserves uh under the circumstances. And it's going to take a while also to get new infrastructure pipelines that reduce the uh the global dependency on oil oil getting through the straight of Hormuz. Of course, we know that um there are other explanations for why the price of oil hasn't spiked up. Um my my uh most likely one is that China's economy is actually pretty weak. Uh we saw that in uh retail sales. Um it's pretty clear that the consumer there is is not spending. I mean they're spending but there's there's no growth. Uh and that they've been very dependent on exports and maybe uh some signs that this war clearly is uh maybe having some impact on on global economic growth therefore on on Chinese exports. So, I think a big part of the story is China is not buying as much oil or they're not increasing the amount of oil they want. And um they uh have apparently some pretty sizable strategic reserves. So, they're probably uh cushioning uh the the shock of what's happened in in the Persian Gulf. They're very dependent on on Iran. And so, that was a big shock. Uh at the same time I think um the uh White House is uh not paying that much attention uh or kind of give Putin a wink wink that uh you know for now under the circumstances the US is kind of busy dealing with a war and isn't going to be counting Russian oil that gets gets to China or gets to India. I think uh India which is a very big oil importer also is getting oil from from Russia and then uh we haven't uh put any uh export controls on on oil.

[00:06:42]Uh I guess uh we we want uh the world to know that we're a dependable source of uh of oil if they want if they want it.

[00:06:52]Um and um of course the problem with that is uh uh by by by not having export controls our oil price is determined by the the the world oil price and the world oil price is basically Brent of those other uh other varieties of oil. But all in all um we're we're we're selling more. And then I think um I'm not quite sure about whether Venezuela is able to scramble to sell oil, more oil, but um one way or the other apparently the shock has been somewhat cushioned and of course some oil is getting out uh from pipeline the pipelines that Saudi Arabia has to to to the Red Sea. So u uh so far uh the the markets have handled this $100 oil price remarkably well really around the world.

[00:07:46]I mean just uh a hint that things were negotiations were still on and and were making some progress. uh on um Sunday night, Monday night, uh we saw that uh the um uh Cosby, the the Korean market went to an all-time uh record high and the Japanese Nikkei uh went went to an all-time record high. Uh so um looks like and of course um if if we do get a deal then I would think that some of these stock markets abroad would outperform the US for a while. We kind of reiterated our position that go global uh does still make sense especially when the war is over. Uh the the biggest beneficiaries the stress will be relieved most most clearly uh in emerging markets um that import oil and also uh the uh the European economies that uh import oil which I guess is just about all of them.

[00:08:46]So, uh, let's, uh, uh, we did not do a morning briefing because of Memorial Day, but we did, uh, continue to send out our our quick takes. Uh, let's, let's go there and have a look at some of these, uh, charts. Uh, so here we are. This is, uh, our um, research um, yeah, a Denny Research website. We're on the quick takes page. Uh, you can always uh, go here to look at charts. You can always go here to search charts. We have AI tools now. Uh uh you can see Beigebook monitor FOMC minutes and and so on. So was when some of these uh uh texts come out if you want to press releases come out, they're they're pretty long. Uh if you want a quick summary, you'll see it in our uh AI tools. Um so let's go. Well, so if you go to research, you can get the morning briefing at the weekly weekly webcast.

[00:09:48]And here we are on the quick take. So let's go and look at FOMO versus FIMO.

[00:09:54]Uh FOMO we all know is fear of missing out. uh FIMO uh just concocted this weekend uh got inspired uh to say well you know everybody's I was actually getting some questions of uh one or two questions of whether this rally is all about FOMO and I think it's actually more about FIMO fabulous earnings momentum which we've discussed before uh but we do like to update you on the situation so you can get a gander of whether this is still ongoing. Uh well, this this chart is kind of fun. It shows so uh year-to date how much of the S&P 500 uh uh increase of about 9%. Uh so that's the red line here. That's the FOMC.

[00:10:46]I'm still thinking FOMC. Uh this is the S&P 500 uh year to date is up about 9%.

[00:10:53]And you can see the forward PE is actually down since the beginning of the of the year and all of the increase is attributable to this which is forward earnings. So forward earnings has increased uh more than the forward PE declined and this is what what we get as as a result. Uh so FOMO would be uh kind of the reverse. we'd see the forward PE uh really taking off. Um because when you have FOMO uh uh fear of missing out, uh people just want to get in the market. They're not really thinking much about earnings. Uh whereas FIMO is all about well, you know, uh I'm not sure I want to be in the market. On the other hand, the earnings are so strong, maybe I should be in the market. Uh but it's not it's not a PE event, it's an E event. uh just to distinguish between the two. Uh so let's focus on FIMO on on earnings. We've been showing this um we had a little m minor slowdown week before current week. Uh I think now we're we're kind of well past the not well past or we're past the the Q1 earning season. And uh you can see that forward earnings all-time record high.

[00:12:10]You can see that they uh analysts keep raising uh their numbers. Let me make let me make this bigger. I can barely see it. Okay, there we go. Uh so uh right now remember at the at the end of last year we were talking about 310 for this year and we thought that was a kind of an outlier bullish and we were thinking uh 330 um well 350 350 for next year. And here we're uh the analysts u are at 337 and uh and 390. Now some of that of course uh is being led by the magnificent 7.

[00:12:48]The um semiconductor stocks by technology generally speaking uh but um as we'll see in a second it's not all about the magnificent 7. Um this is um the forward earnings. We just showed you how we calculate forward earnings. It's a time weighted average of the current year and the coming year and see that we're going to converge to wherever this thing ends up at at year end. And right now it's kind of up up and away. I mean uh I would think at some point it's going to kind of level out here uh because uh we we keep kind of uh remaining bullish but not bullish enough on earnings. I mean, we're we raised our numbers from 310 to 330 and uh for for this year and we raised our number uh from 350 to 375 and uh right now the analysts are still uh more more bullish than we are or we're not as bullish as the analysts. Um this is almost hard to believe the these kind of numbers. Um, and you know, I guess this gets into the issue of can you is rational exuberance just a PE phenomenon? Uh, could irrational exuberance be an e phenomenon that the analysts just get all hyped up about AI and how amazing that could be?

[00:14:14]Um, but some of this hype uh is actually because earnings have come in a lot stronger. So then that gets you into the question of uh the reliability the quality of earnings of some people and and we followed up with an analysis showing that yes indeed um some of this earnings is uh marked to market of investments that the magnificent 7 companies the hyperscalers made uh made kind of in each other and uh in in some of the uh other infrastructure companies and um so is that kind of Um, isn't that sort of a speculative bubble?

[00:14:52]Um, and the answer is not yet. Um, and um, right now it's kind still the the real deal. I mean, uh, Intel's recovery is is is real. Um, the, you know, mark tomarketing marking up the value of anthropic and open AI makes sense in in my humble opinion. But at any rate, um, as you can see, um, the forward earnings number goes all the way back to 1994.

[00:15:25]And, um, it's a great, uh, coincident, even leading indicator of actual forward earnings, u, actual earnings quarterly, except they don't get recessions. So, you say, well, what good is it? Well, it's really good. If you have a strong opinion that there's not going to be a recession, then you can pretty much count on this being realized in in the blue in the actual and uh we've been uh arguing since the beginning of the decade that the economy is resilient and won't have a recession and the market seems to be buying that idea more and more. Uh and certainly the analysts are buying it with with their earnings expectations. So, um, this is FIMO, uh, fabulous earnings momentum, right? We've had a few other instances. Uh, we had some back here. Uh, this wasn't really a major change in the slope. Um, but but this is really quite unusual.

[00:16:24]Um, this is, uh, the profit margin. It's not just revenues. I I mean the revenue story is remarkable because you would think with what's going on in the global economy, the S&P 500 revenues would be uh showing some signs of a slowing global economy and and that's just not the case. Uh now maybe some of that is price inflation in the energy sector. So that'll uh boost revenues. Max is really having a good sleep there. Um and uh of course the profit margin has uh been uh going up. This is forward profit margin which also correlates very well with the actual profit margin for the S&P 500. Uh Joe Abbott uh our colleague put together this nice uh chart which allows us weekly uh to uh basically look at earnings breath um and revenues breath.

[00:17:19]And as you can see, earnings breath um the the blue line keeps going up here.

[00:17:25]Um in a in a bare market, earnings breath t takes a dive. So uh that could happen pretty quick, but um we we don't see that kind of scenario anytime soon.

[00:17:37]And it's really the argument for if if earnings breath is widening, broadening, uh that that should impact the market.

[00:17:44]Right now, the market's back to being fairly concentrated and and focused on on on a few. The Magnificent 7 Magnificent 7 earnings uh look great.

[00:17:54]This is on a ratio scale. Uh so we're not exaggerating it by having it on a on a regular arithmetic scale. And uh this shows the U S&P 500 um forward earnings and this shows the 493. And the 493 were kind of in a coma here for a while. uh as the Magnificent 7 were growing, but now we're starting to see that this is moving into record high territory. Uh we put together, David put this together this chart on S&P 500 sectors long-term earnings growth and this is analyst consensus expectations for uh earnings over the next 3 to 5 years at an annual rate for the S&P 500. and they're at 21.9%.

[00:18:41]Uh, and you can see that that's uh led by a big uh growth. Remember this is an annual number. Um, so this is 34.9%.

[00:18:54]Now, of course, this is com a not not u we're not asking analysts what do you think the S&P 500's growth rate is going to be? Because if we ask them that, they'd probably say something like 10 to 12. um you know including dividend I suppose or or say without dividends the earnings growth will be um sorry the earnings growth uh would be something like high single digits or low double digits but we're asking them uh what do you think your company will do and when you aggregate it all together you get these these kind of numbers uh which we all know are nonsensical you you can't have earnings growing 21.9% for the S&P 500 when nominal GDP maybe is growing five to six 7%. I mean the profit margin would have to go off off the charts uh and in a competitive marketplace margin shouldn't be able to do that but then again it is a roaring 2020s and we do have technologies that are increasing productivity.

[00:19:58]uh just to put this uh into some more perspective because I think it's it's interesting is that um you know just thinking about irrational exuberance is it just the PE concept can it also be an E concept and the answer is yeah it could also be an E concept uh there could be some hype here in in earnings as you can see the S&P 500 LTEG long-term earnings growth is up to 20 21 uh.9 Um we had been somewhat higher uh in the pandemic. Uh but that was kind of a messy situation with a lot of uh aberrations going on. So what we really want to do is compare it to back here.

[00:20:42]And so we're we're the highest we've been on record with the exception of the messy situation of the pandemic. Back here long-term earnings growth. the analysts got more and more optimistic and then they realized they were wrong and uh that all kind of the air came out and uh leading back then was again information technology that actually got to 28% but this time around we're at 34% so um they're u you know I I think that's where the the risks lie but I'd rather have a market going up on FIMO forward earnings momentum than on FOMO which would be uh just kind of PE um on a PE basis this is interesting is the the PE of the forward the forward P of the S&P is 21.1 uh while the um forward PE of the uh S&P 500 information technology is 24.4.

[00:21:43]Uh so there there was some divergence here obviously uh but now they're closer and that's because the forward PE of technology came down to a large extent because the E went up uh a lot uh quite a divergence from this um bubble when the the tech PE was uh uh got up to 55 and then it uh took a dive then because of the nature of uh E going down It went up one more time, but the the basic trend uh once it peaked back here, it took a dive and then it uh converged with uh with the S&P 500 stayed real real tight and then it was right around here that you started to see tech out perform. Now this is uh 2022 is when um we had chat GPT. So we we had that that divergence. Uh but again the it's the it's not really FOMO. Um you know I mean we could argue that the PE of the S&P is too high at 21.1. It should be 15. But I I think this is reflecting um sort of the credibility of our view uh or the widespread acceptance of our view that the economy is more resilient than people thought. It's not going to have a recession anytime soon. And uh if that's the case, it makes sense that the PE would be higher.

[00:23:12]Let me have a sway here.

[00:23:17]Okay. So, um kind of a case study within information technology since semiconductors has become such a huge part of of the technology sector. You can see that um the um forward earnings share of uh semiconductors in the technology sector is now 46.9% and the market cap share is 45.1%.

[00:23:42]So the the market cap share the the the price um the relative importance of um semiconductors has increased rather dramatically here uh along with uh the the the earning share. Uh let's just do one one more shot here.

[00:24:02]Uh this is uh we did the kind of updated our thoughts on the global market call.

[00:24:09]Um I don't know we're uh we're we're doing more and more uh and that's partly because uh we brought in a couple of uh smart young fellas. Uh uh one is Toby Hurst uh helping me out on the uh strategy side and the other one is is Elias Grippenrog. Um uh Toby is uh in Melbourne, Australia and um Elias is in um in Amsterdam and of course we still have William uh stationed in Japan. So, I like to think that we're a global firm now that we have these uh uh offices uh bureaus uh overseas, but uh anyways, we're we're working 24 by7. And so, we decided to try to on a regular basis give you more um more of a well, give you a quick take on the an update over the weekend once we have all the data for the week. Uh so, this is the um S&P 500. the this we're doing MSEI now US Msei compared to the all country world XUS uh we had been recommending stay home all this time uh we stayed too long here back here 2025 go global outperform stay home now there's some kind of question mark of well now what and I think the war clearly um brought money back to the US relative to the rest of the world um an end of the war which isn't isn't clear yet uh would u probably benefit go global uh on a relative basis. Uh this just shows u that back here in late late last year we looked at this chart and said well the United States is already like almost uh somewhere around 63% of the market cap of the global MCI to recommend overweing something that's already got this kind of weight is not kind of consistent with a some thought of diversification and kind of reality does it make sense that the US is kind of global up A gobble up global uh go globble up.

[00:26:28]Okay. Uh gobble up global. Repeat that 10 times. Um interesting. The uh emerging markets uh share of market cap is starting to show some some signs of life. It's it's done that before and then kind of fizzled away. And of course a good part of that is South Korea and Taiwan which are basically AI plays. Um this is the earning share and the earning share of the US is gigantic uh at um over 50% and again you're seeing some pickup here in the earning share of of emerging markets. Uh it's not all uh just South Korea and Taiwan, but a good part of it is. Meanwhile, when we look at forward earnings, uh we looked at it uh the MCI forward earnings for the for the uh US, that's the blue line. Same thing we looked at before, except that was the S&P 500. So they obviously it's going to be pretty close to the Msei. MCI is large caps and midcaps. Uh for the rest of the world, things were looking pretty uh sleepy here for a while. and now looks like that's picking up. So the forward earning story is looking better for the rest of the world. Uh the forward PE is still a lot higher in the US. So the foreign markets are cheaper. They used to be pretty much uh the same PE but uh since we got out of the great financial crisis, the US has had uh a higher PE and some of that is uh the overweight situation in in technology. Uh this is uh a handy dandy chart we'll show weekly uh kind of looking at ETFs in dollars uh for the various countries. South Korea, Taiwan outperformers year to date. We had been uh when we went to uh looking for opportunities overseas. We did recommend looking at uh emerging markets exchina and uh that's certainly been a home run compared to China. Uh, China's uh actually down and the Chinese government's doing it again. They're intervening uh in the marketplaces.

[00:28:36]They're uh looking at uh some finagling going on in the AI uh space in the stock market. They're trying to clamp down on global flows and that's weighing on the Chinese market. Uh so meanwhile the forward earnings emerging markets up up and away uh again South Korea Taiwan a big part of that stock market the MCI all country will X up up and away new record high uh developed countries again uh the we're starting excluding the US we're starting to see that um after sort of being in a flatline things are improving on the earnings front um and uh on a relative basis. Uh the rest of the world is probably being hit harder by the um uh the war in in Iran, the higher oil prices and we see that in the city group economic surprise index uh down sharply in Euro zone actually going up in the US. That correlates really well to the bond yield. Uh the bond yield has gone up. People are freaking out about it.

[00:29:46]We're not uh we're we're sort of the you know we we've got uh a close relationship with the bond vigilantes.

[00:29:54]Um we're not bond vigilantes but we uh we we we uh communicate with them subliminally. Uh and we don't think that bonds have got gotten out of hand. Um I think Bailey's walking around here somewhere. Uh Europe again uh the Eurozone PMIs uh the services is down a lot. Manufacturing is down some. Maybe they're producing more defense in Europe. Uh Germans Euro zone consumer confidence down sharply. That got hit.

[00:30:27]So is ours. Uh but our economy seems to be handling things better. Here's German industrial production just continuing to to slide. So uh that's uh it. Let's uh see what we got here on the on the Q&A.

[00:30:44]Uh from Matt, Dr. Ed, while the FIMO framework acknowledges private hyperscaler anthropic valuations lifts S&P 500 earnings, what are your thoughts on earnings from companies that implement AI compared to those that sell it? And are the private company valuations feeding into 27 estimates? Um that's uh it's a lot of questions and uh deserves a a good answer. So you know as you know we we we do work on earnings and uh we we have been on top of the uh marktomarket um of for some of the hyperscalers. Um but all all in all u we will take a a closer look at the 493. As you as I said they look pretty good. The problem is the 493 includes some semiconductors companies like Micron that aren't in u the Magnificent 7. So, uh that's the wonderful thing about our business. Uh there's always something different and new. Uh Denise, hi Dr. Ed.

[00:31:50]Eric Wallerstein posted a chart indicating three companies are responsible for EM strength. TS yeah Taiwan Semi Samsung and SKH Heinix does your research agree with this? Yeah, absolutely. I mean it's uh it's factual.

[00:32:05]Um it's uh it's it's just absolutely factual. But um then again um let's see if I can quickly go back to sharing the screen. Share. And we're looking at um this one. And then let's go back to this chart here.

[00:32:28]So, uh, yeah, South Korea, Taiwan, I mean, this obviously, uh, is the same data that Eric's looking at. And this is the EMXChina.

[00:32:39]Uh, but, um, Thailand did well, Israel emerging market index including China, uh, EM Asia, uh, Brazil is is up there with a double digit gain. this is year to date. Uh Turkey, uh Poland has been a hot story and then the so the the the soonest you get to developed countries is Japan and then me then we got Mexico doubledigit uh gains. So there have been emerging markets that have uh have done quite well outperformed the US. This is the the US at 9.3. Uh Mexico has been been higher than that. So, um, yeah, Denise, as I said, there's a a lot going on on here and you really have to get into the weeds some sometimes and we are and we will continue to do so. Uh, to your point about EM, it would this is from JR. It would be interesting if there's a way to present EM same question, EMX, Samsung, HINEX, and TSM.

[00:33:41]My hunch is that it would appear dramatically different. It would indeed.

[00:33:45]I've seen a chart like that and we can we we'll work on putting some together.

[00:33:49]I'll mention it to David and Joe. Uh it it goes down, but a big part of that is China. Uh and we have not been recommending China. We've been particularly uh opposed to investing in in in that country. Uh so um again, a lot of nuances once you get into the weeds. I got a question from David. AI research from Pro Cap Insight says midterm years are historically bad for stocks and that the trade is already forming. Across nine midterm cycles since 1990, the S&P 500 has averaged a maximum draw down of minus7.5%.

[00:34:30]The max draw down so far is only 9.1% roughly half of the midterm average.

[00:34:37]That suggests that the real draw down is still ahead, not behind. Any thoughts?

[00:34:42]Yeah, I look um we don't really play those kind of u I don't want call them I don't want to belittle them but uh we don't play those kind of games. We don't do that kind of analysis is a kind of a fair way to say it. Um you know kind of saying well this has happened nine out of 10 times. It's so the odds are that it'll happen again are really high. uh we also don't do what I call technical analysis of um fundamental data is you know some people say well the leading indicators always done this therefore it must uh imply the same thing again uh we we we tend to be well should I can I say more thoughtful uh uh kind of we kind of try to be more fundamental about these things than just say it it you know nine out of 10 times it's happened um and it's going to happen again. And uh you're asking the a very biased person this question, David, because we're in the roaring 2020s camp. So uh obviously we're going to get very excited about anything that's looks like roaring 2020s and the earnings certainly look at it look that way. And so if the earnings don't uh somehow turn out to be bogus, if we don't have a recession which brings earnings down and the PE is reasonable at 21 in a in a world where recession less the US economy has been stress tested. How many times has it been stress tested and it's still growing. Uh so in in that kind of situation, we're going to uh stick with our view that uh uh we'll we could have a double-digit growth this year. Uh which will be the fourth year in a row of double- digit growth. Uh and then I guess we go and look at how many times has that happened and what happens next.

[00:36:29]Uh well, we are talking about the roaring 2030s. Uh I'll take uh I'll take two two last questions here that I have from Lee. As AI provides tremendous benefits for productivity, perhaps per perhaps no other similar tech has resulted in so much animosity.

[00:36:48]Uh even religious leaders hate it. Yeah, the Pope doesn't like it. As states, municipalities, and other restrict data center construction, will this impact the proliferation of AI and its applications? Moreover, if money can't be spent in building new centers, will the existing one be worth even more?

[00:37:05]That's a good point. And I just noticed an article somewhere, maybe it was on LinkedIn, saying that uh the value of old chips of old GPUs has actually gone up because the new ones I guess are so expensive and the old ones are still serviceable and can still be used for some some sorts of AI. Um so uh and then of course u the hyperscalers are already thinking uh u outside the box of uh putting these things in outer space uh putting them in the oceans. The oceans makes more sense to me than than than outer space. Uh at least you can get somebody to take a swim and have a look at it if it needs some repairs. Lastly, do you see China turning around anytime soon? uh not not the consumer. It's all been kind of e export-led. Uh looks like uh they're mcking around with um the business by u the government meddling in businesses affairs. Uh so no, I I don't uh I don't see them turning around. But you know, I mean they still got lots of uh you know, let's not let's not get too negative on China in terms of what what they are capable of accomplishing. I just don't really want to invest there.

[00:38:25]Well, uh, thanks very much for for tuning in on Tuesday. Hope you had a a relaxing weekend and, uh, hope we can relax with a market going higher, but uh, it's it's not going to be that easy.

[00:38:38]Uh, it's never that easy. There's always something. So, we'll, uh, we'll keep you a prize of our thinking. And, uh, again, thanks. We'll we'll see you next week.

[00:38:47]Bye-bye.

[00:38:59]Hey, hey, hey.