Breaking down why Becerra, Hilton leading California governor's race | KTVU

Added: 2026-05-28

[00:00:00]Last half hour we've been showing you this news conference with the public policy institute of California releasing a new poll just 5 days from the June 2nd primary as people are actively voting in this gubanatorial race that remains extremely crowded and that new poll showing Democrat Javier Baser now leading in the race with 23% followed by Steve Hilton a Republican at 20% then Democrat Tommy Styer at 15%. We want to break down this poll and some of what the findings are in this race at this point. And we welcome in Jason McDaniel, political science professor at San Francisco State. Jason, good to see you, sir.

[00:00:32]>> Thank you. Good to see you.

[00:00:33]>> Uh Jason, I want to ask you off the bat, when you look at these numbers at this point, this close to the race, does it look like Democrat and Republican voters are coalesing behind their candidates?

[00:00:45]>> Yeah, the vast majority of Democrats are behind either Bera, Styer, or Porter. um with most of those of course going towards Bera and even more consolidation amongst Republican voters um who are there for Bianca and Hilton Hilton leading of course so yeah you know people are tuning in they are consolidating around the top candidates they are paying attention to the race and I think that's what we're seeing very clearly yes >> most of the candidates specifically Democrats have decided at this point that they believe that Steve Hilton is going to move on to the general election he has consistently led and now the question is who will be the Democrat that will likely move on with him because turnout is still low at this point. Could we see a shifting of support for which Democrat moves on?

[00:01:30]>> Well, one of my main issues with this poll that is a really important point to make is that it was actually in the field in May 18th. So, it's been 10 days since they they pulled. And so, you know, it is possible there's been some late movement. Um, you know, the poll really reflects a lot of consistency with previous polls. There's an argument to be made that Styer has, you know, he's been spending over $200 million on this race. A lot of ads that maybe then there's there's this poll might be missing some late movement. But the problem is we haven't really seen a lot of that late movement. It seems to me, as you said, with low turnout, a lot of Democrats have been holding on to their ballots. Um, most ballots returned are Democratic right now, uh, um, but not to the levels we we've seen in previous uh, cycles. So, a lot of Democrats, I think, have been waiting. Uh, you know, a lot of candidates waiting to make their choice. And I think what we're seeing is that when they decide, they're going with that idea. They want to make sure they go with a winner, a Democrat who can make the top two. And right now, that I think Bera has been benefiting from that ever since Swallwell dropped out. I think Basera has been benefiting from that. And so, I think that we should expect that to continue. uh these low turnout, you know, uh uh numbers we're seeing. The the positive spin on that though is that these are probably people who are going to vote, right?

[00:02:43]They've voted in previous elections.

[00:02:45]These are people who are likely going to going to vote. And so I think we're going to see continual consolidation. I don't think Tommy Styer's campaign has has risen much above 15% in most of the polls I've seen. It seems to be a pretty clear picture of where we are right now that a lot of voters are concerned still that, you know, the Democrats might be locked out of the race. uh uh even though someone like me I'm less concerned about that now than I was you know a month or two ago but and I think Visera is benefiting from that >> professor I wanted to ask you as I sort of reflected on this getting ready for next week's election day is that when you consider a month ago before Eric Swallwell dropped out how much has changed and very rapidly in this race Javier Bera the last time we saw PPIC poll was at 4% and now he's leading this thing so I I would love for you to reflect on how much has changed in a really remarkable race that unlike a gubanatorial race in California that I have seen.

[00:03:40]>> Yeah. I mean, it's rare to see a candidate that that's low in the polls who's, you know, to to rocket to the tops like this. Uh um I think it's, you know, quite clearly Democrats are concerned about Trump, you know, nationally. They're they're concerned about extremism. This poll talked about political extremism and problems with democracy. I interpret that as a about Trump. And they're also worried about the economy and inflation and prices and the cost of living. That is also, I think, a lot about Trump, right? So, Democrats are not dissatisfied with this candidate field per se. You know, you know, they're maybe not as excited about it as they could have been with some other candidates. And I think once they started tuning in and that started happening after Swallwell, you know, the message they heard was we have to be careful. Democrats could get locked out.

[00:04:24]And I think they've gone to the most experienced Democrat after that almost, right? A lot of them have, right? So I think Visera has benefited from that.

[00:04:32]There's, you know, it wasn't exactly a coordinated push, but there was positive comments from leading Democrats about Visera. Uh I I do think that it's been remarkably stable once uh you know, Swallwell dropped out. Katie Porter has just not been able to to sort of recover from perhaps her missteps maybe, you know, early earlier this year. Um, Democrats haven't been open to that. And Styer, despite all of his effort, uh, um, they're skeptical of enough Democrats. So, these are people who are Democrats. They they vote for the Democratic candidate. They have a highly favorable rating of of Gavin Newsome, right? And so, they want someone who can carry on that that path. And that's the majority of voters in San Francisco or California, I should say, probably fit that profile more or less. And so, yeah, this race has been both static and also changing rapidly, but there hasn't been more change in these last few weeks.

[00:05:24]That's what's so interesting about this poll.

[00:05:26]>> Yeah, professor, you mentioned Javier Bera's experience and and maybe that is what drew some voters to him. And I want to ask you, and this was a question that was asked during the PPIC news conference, is what do you think it is that drew what seems like a lot of Eric Swallwell voters to Javier Ber? Because it seems like he benefited more than any other Democrat on the board. Like there's two things I first I actually would would pinpoint Batito voters who were probably not Swallwell voters but they were maybe late later tuning in and once they began to tune in you know there was some split between Verosa and Bera there I think Bera benefited from that consolidation the the PPIC poll showed I think 34% of Latino voters supporting Bisera that's been a big you know boost for him. So those weren't necessarily swallow voters, but they once they start tuning in and you know they baser benefited from that and also Northern California voters. There's swallow is not a nor was the only sort of Northern California candidate. Styer is as well but but Northern California voters I think these are solid Democratic voters are moving towards the leader. They're sort of following these signals of this is the person we think can win. We're hearing all these signals, right? And I think those are the two factors that that sort of Latino voters in in Southern California primarily and other places and Northern California, you know, probably mostly white or relatively diverse, you know, Democratic voters. These are the the groups that have moved to Basera the most after Swallwell. And I think yeah, that's that's to me what's what's happening there.

[00:06:54]>> Yeah. Jason, let's talk about the Republican side for a second. throughout sort of the trends of this, even with the changes on the Democratic side with Suwell dropping out, Steve Hilton has consistently led in the polls in a state that is as sapphire blue as California.

[00:07:08]What do you think it is about Hilton's messaging or what he's promising specific to the cost of living that continues to have him sort of leading the pack here and setting the tone?

[00:07:20]>> You know, leading the pack with around 20 20, you know, 20 to 25% is one thing, right? I mean, it's it's been two factors. One, Democrats being split amongst all the Democratic candidates, right? And and but honestly, it was Trump's endorsement uh that really, you know, there there was some closer margins between Bianca and Hilton earlier this year once once Trump falls behind Hilton. I I I think that that helped Hilton, you know, rise above Bianca's had a hard time since then. And then other Republicans, you know, start tuning in a little later and saying, "Okay, we're going to go with the one that can make the top two." Right.

[00:07:51]Ironically, I think Biano is a little bit more of a MAGA type candidate, right? But I suspect Trump and his his people, you know, recognize that Hilton was probably going to win this. They like to get behind a w, you know, someone who they think can win. That's a that's a good old tactic that Trump is Libya endorsed the one who's probably going to win. And then I can take credit for that. That's something we've seen.

[00:08:09]Ironically, this helped Democrats as well. I do think this helped Bera once once Hilton, you know, has risen to the top for Republicans. uh Biano following below, it becomes much more likely that it's at least one Democrat makes the top two and I think Biser has benefited from from that as well. So mostly that that's the Trump endorsement and and that consolidation of Republican, you know, politicians support around Hilton. Uh that is that is why he's been leading the polls. His message has been resonating with Republican voters, right? Uh uh less much less so of course with Democrats and independents. Uh um independent voters actually the the you know are split mostly between some of the Democrats. some Republican going to Hilton. Katie Porter is actually doing well with independents in this PPIC poll. So, it's mostly been about Republicans liking the message they're hearing from Stephen Steve Hilton.

[00:08:55]>> Yeah, Jason, if if Hilton does indeed move on to the general election, how much of a double-edged sword is that Trump endorsement, especially if you move on to November because the president is so unpopular in California?

[00:09:08]Yeah, I mean, you know, it's it's, you know, I don't want to say it's a kiss of death and then a little cliche, but um, look, at least around a reliable 60% of voters right now in California vote for the Democratic candidate, right? You know, some some of the polls I'm seeing up upwards of 65% when Trump is really unpopular. So, it is going to be, you know, shocking if Helton would be able to be competitive at all. I don't expect that, but we'll see. It is I I would give him maybe, you know, a 10% chance.

[00:09:36]that that may be too low, but maybe a 10% chance of winning. Uh um most voters, you know, he would have a more of a chance if there was less unpopularity at the national level about about Trump, right? If if Biden was still president, a Republican in California might have a better chance, but the majority of voters in California don't like the Democrat the Republican message. They don't like their policies and they don't like Trump. And and that's just uh you know, he's going to have it's going to be impossible, I think, for him to separate himself from Trump. That is going to be a lead weight around him. And I think we're going to see that story in many places around the country that are less democratic than California.

[00:10:10]>> Yeah. And Jason, I want to ask you about the Bay Area candidate in this gubinatorial race, San Jose Mayor Matt Mayan, who has sort of ebbed and flowed, but he's mostly stayed in sort of the single digits here. Obviously, he entered this race late, later than anyone. But what do you think it is that sort of kept him from breaking into that upper threshold of candidates that we've seen here? And thank you for correcting me about there being you know I know Northern California candidates you know uh um Mayhem of course um has had a lot of support I think uh um you know reportedly a lot of support out of the tech community in some aspects of of business that are you know what I call technocratic democratic you know they're moderate maybe on fiscal issues right um and you know he hasn't caught fire and and look the voters don't know who he is you could spend a lot of money and and that's raised his name recognition but when when I was hearing reports that he was, you know, going to get in the race.

[00:11:01]Look, San Jose Bear is not someone that most people know, right? And and being any mayor, it's actually quite hard to to become governor of California. And the state is so big, there's so many voters, it takes a lot of name recognition plus money, you know, uh, and exposure to to reach most voters.

[00:11:17]And man's just not had that ability to do that. And then all the money that's been spent for him, which was a lot, um, it just hasn't. Most voters are like, you know, we don't know who you are.

[00:11:28]maybe, you know, we like you, but it's not enough, right? And so, yeah, if he he needed to get into that 10, 11, 12, 15% to start for voters to really consider him, and I think most voters just not even considering him despite the fact they might like the messaging they've seen. They might be okay with some of his policies, but that's, you know, it was probably too early, right?

[00:11:48]I mean, this might help him down the road, but I I would have advised him not to enter the race. Although I I would not tell anybody not to enter the race, but like if he had asked me, I would have said, "Look, your name recognition is just too low." And I've been telling my students, "Money does not win all elections." They often think money wins elections. Tommy Styer, Matt Mayhem, a lot of money. Not much bang for their buck on that so far.

[00:12:08]>> Yeah, it's a really good point, Jason McDaniel. Uh, so appreciate the time. If you want to hang out with us for a second, Jason, I do have a couple more questions about national races, but we're going to take a quick break here on Fox Local.