Is El Niño Already Reshaping U.S. Weather?

Added: 2026-06-01

[00:00:04]Welcome back. Time now for a check of weather with Brian Bledsoe Brian Bledsoe weather. Brian, you warned us about it a couple weeks ago. You said the pattern is getting ready [music] to change.

[00:00:12]Parts of the park plains will see significant rainfall, and that is exactly [music] what we have seen.

[00:00:17]Brian, when you look at the past week or so, where have the heaviest rainfall totals been?

[00:00:23]>> Well, it started out in eastern New Mexico, west and southwest Texas where we saw anywhere from about 1 to 3 inches of very welcome rain in some of those areas. And then it spread northeastward up across the panhandle of Texas, the panhandle of Oklahoma, on up in the southwest Kansas. There were parts of southwest Kansas that picked up anywhere from 2 to 5 inches of rain out of that slow-moving upper-level low that's moved through. And then that continued to spread eastward across central Kansas, up in the south-central and southeast Nebraska. So, this was really a great rain because we didn't have any severe weather with it. As far as severe thunderstorms go, for the most part, it really was beneficial. It came in such a way it was able to soak in. And uh that was just what we really needed uh for some of those areas. Now, will this type of pattern continue? Well, let's look at the upper-level weather pattern as we kick things off this weekend. And the main focus, at least for this weekend, you see that blue spot right there over west and southwest Wyoming. That's upper-level low pressure that's actually bringing beneficial moisture to Montana, which has been so parched. And then as we put it into motion, the main thing that I want to draw your attention to here is watch that big red spot up there over Hudson Bay. That's this blocking ridge of high pressure that's been so prevalent. It finally starts to break down. We start to move the pattern from west to east uh systems kind of moving across the country instead of just being so blocky in one area. Now, that doesn't mean that it's going to be great for everybody. If we look at the forecast precipitation anomalies uh all right through June 10th, you can see that parts of the upper Midwest and the Corn Belt, for the most part are going to stay drier than average. We get a little bit better moisture across parts of the Dakotas, eastern Nebraska. It's likely to stay wetter than average across New Mexico and most of Texas along the Gulf Coast and you see that moisture up there across northern Montana, which is actually going to do fairly well.

[00:02:12]Temperature-wise, yeah, this is what you're looking at. Warmer weather across southern Canada, northern portions of the plains. We're going to stay average to cooler than average. New Mexico, most of Texas right through the southeast and up the eastern seaboard. Uh so, that's kind of how we're going to roll at least to the first 10 days of June. I did a little bit of work and kind of put together some analog years for you and what we can potentially see historically when we look at these Junes. Let's look at those precipitation anomalies for '72, '82, '97, '15, and '23. Why do I pick those years? Well, because those were the years where we saw a rapidly developing El Niño situation as we headed into early summer. Wherever you're seeing greens and blues, historically, that's where we saw wetter than average conditions in those years.

[00:02:57]But, you notice in there across the eastern Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, parts of Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, you see that little dry pocket right there. Historically, Junes have had a little bit of a dry tendency in those regions. But, if we flip the script to July and look at that, do you see how that dry block kind of breaks down? It's not perfect for everybody across the upper Midwest and the corn belt, but it's better historically than what June has to offer. The one thing that I will say, if you look down there at Texas, all right, been wet for a while, in some cases very wet, and historically, a lot of times we will start to pivot, gradually dry out during June, dry in July, so I will caution the flash drought potential across parts of Texas as we head deeper into the summer time.

[00:03:42]>> Brian, is El Niño though already influencing some of these weather patterns, especially when you see the rainfall totals that we have seen in parts of the plains?

[00:03:51]>> It is. You know, when whenever we talk El Niño, you have to, you know, take those warmer than average sea surface temperature anomalies and keep them there long enough period of time so the atmosphere and the ocean couple. We have seen that take place and that's one of the reasons we are seeing such wet conditions across the southern tier of the United States. So, you know, I know that there was that narrative that we weren't going to see any El Niño impacts until we got toward fall and winter.

[00:04:16]Nothing could be further from the truth.

[00:04:17]That's exactly what we're seeing now and it's responsible for a lot of that wet weather that's been taking place.

[00:04:22]>> Wow. Brian Bledsoe with Brian Bledsoe Weather. Thank you so much for joining us. Well, are we already [music] seeing a weather market take shape? That's exactly what we're going to ask Mike North and Chip Nellenger next.

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