Tropical Weather Outlook for June 19th, 2026

[00:00:01]Good afternoon to you. I'm Danilo Evangelista and welcome to today's tropical weather outlook for June 19th, 2026.

[00:00:08]Not much is happening today across the tropics, at least in the Atlantic, but things could, once again, ramp up in the Pacific. And things are currently ramping up in the western Pacific right now.

[00:00:20]So, since there's not much happening in the Atlantic today, let's start off by taking a look at what is happening in the tropics worldwide right now. We have tropical storm seven, which I believe was upgraded just today.

[00:00:34]Not sure what name this storm necessarily takes here in the Pacific. I'm going to have to check in on that, but we do have a yet another tropical storm in the west Pacific. And this is very likely here going to strengthen into a potentially strong to maybe yet again another super typhoon for the western Pacific for this season. Here's a satellite shot of how the tropical storm is looking like right now. The sun is just beginning to set up over the western Pacific right now, and you can see definitely a well-developing storm here.

[00:01:09]One thing that stands off right off the bat, quite an impressive outflow channel with a bunch of these upper-level cirrus clouds fanning out in a fast motion away from the storm that represents that there is ventilation and likely no wind shear impeding on the storm. So, we're more than likely going to see very quick intensification here over the next few days as this kind of continues to move on off to the west-northwest. And yeah, once again, this is very likely potentially going to be yet another powerful typhoon here in the Pacific.

[00:01:45]And here's the Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast for 7W.

[00:01:51]I believe the name is on the top here.

[00:01:54]Mekkhala, I believe that's what the name is. Mekkhala, so tropical storm Mekkhala.

[00:02:01]Again, going to move on off to the west to northwest here over the next few days. Uh Joint Typhoon Warning Center right now predicting a peak of 115 knots. So, that's category 4 equivalent in terms of hurricane standards.

[00:02:15]And taking a look at some of the models here. And by the way, hats off to Tropical Tidbits by Levi Cowan for creating these individual web pages where you can pretty much have all the tools you need to track a tropical system here. Very nice organized, I should say. Or very nicely organized, I should say if I'm going to use proper grammar. And here's the EPS ensemble tracks for 7W Mekkhala and this becomes a pretty intense typhoon. Lots of members here indicating 970s to 960s. Maybe some pressures going into the 950s here. And there's even one ensemble that takes us all the way down below the scale here.

[00:02:57]So, probably a super typhoon. So, a lot of strong ensembles here. Lots of certainty again. Very likely going to see yet another strong storm in the western Pacific.

[00:03:09]In the Atlantic though, taking things over to the National Hurricane Center now.

[00:03:14]Not much is happening. We have the remnants of Arthur which are off the east coast right now. Although they are unlikely to develop at this point. the chance that we would see redevelopment maybe yesterday, but it looks like that chance has now completely dissipated.

[00:03:30]The National Hurricane Center giving a 0% chance of development in the next 48 hours and 7 days for the remnants of Arthur. And thank goodness after Arthur brought a lashing of flooding rainfall across the south. Portions of Louisiana seeing as much as 2 ft of rain. And it is certainly once again, a reminder to never underestimate flooding uh and these rainfall events even from tropical systems that may be weak and not threatening. Uh here's a satellite shot of the uh Atlantic and the Pacific right now, which, by the way, there's also not much happening in the Pacific just yet, but I'll take you through the models here in just a little bit. That's very likely going to change here uh in the next 2 weeks uh as El Niño continues to intensify, and we are really going to start seeing a lot more of the atmospheric forcing uh kick into full gear here in the Pacific, and I suppose we're already beginning to see the effects of that with yet another powerful typhoon. But, across the Atlantic and the Pacific right now, not much happening, some scattered showers and thunderstorms here across the Pacific. Uh and across the Southeast, still seeing rain today. Yet another another system is moving through, bringing even more rain to the South, especially across the Gulf Coast, areas that were pummeled by rain yesterday.

[00:04:53]Uh and then you could see here uh the remnants of Arthur quickly moving on off to the uh northeast here off the Southeast coast. Uh and obviously very not likely to develop, strong wind shear, unfavorable directional shear as well, and this is just completely embedded now within the uh jet stream. So, no development likely happening right now um in the Atlantic, at least as we could see on the satellite. Here's a look at our tropical waves that are being analyzed right now. Quite an active wave train, I must say. We have three waves right now uh churning through the Atlantic. Three waves that are making it through the Pacific. Um and none of these waves are expected to develop yet, um but uh as these waves continue to, you know, chug along here and move on off to the west, um the Pacific will definitely become more favorable uh over the next several weeks as the atmosphere becomes more primed, the MJ is going to move uh, into the Pacific pretty strongly and once again set up that uh, long wave standing wave forcing associated with the El Nino here. So, uh, all of these waves will continue to move across the uh, Atlantic to the west and eventually over the next few weeks we'll probably start seeing a lot more of these waves find favorable ground here in the eastern Pacific. But, obviously, you can't rule out from time to time uh, one lucky wave finding itself in a favorable environment for a short period of time and maybe trying to spin up quickly here uh, in the Atlantic uh, even if just for a short period of time.

[00:06:29]Uh, and I bring that up because taking a look at the GFS here on the 12Z, running things out here over the next 7 days, you notice nothing much happens tropics-wise across the Atlantic. Uh, Bermuda high is uh, pretty nice situ- pretty nice and situated here keeping the trades uh, brisk uh, and keeping everything moving off to the west.

[00:06:51]Uh, and you don't really see much energy here that tries to consolidate that looks super eye-popping, but occasionally uh, if you look very closely here in the MDR and let me try to bring this a little bit more into focus here.

[00:07:05]Uh, you do see that sometimes we have some of these specs of vorticity that kind of spin up for a brief period of time, but then die off. There's I would I guess one wave in the eastern Atlantic right now that tries to consolidate a little bit then it dies off uh, and then just crashes into the islands. Uh, and then another wave, another interesting looking piece of energy here, um, you know, tries to spin up again briefly, uh, but then also opens back up. I guess the trades are just too strong, but I do believe that is a signal that we do have some somewhat aggressive waves right now um, moving across the Atlantic. Um, maybe the African monsoon is surprisingly a little bit stronger this year. I will be honest with you, our wave train has actually been quite healthy so far this season. Obviously, because it's early on, nothing has really been able to take advantage of its environment.

[00:07:56]And of course, given that conditions will be less favorable in the Atlantic this year generally because of El Nino, we're also seeing things kind of capped.

[00:08:05]But obviously, some No, sometimes even in the Atlantic in the early season, maybe in an El Nino, every now and then we see something try to spin up. But especially as the energy progresses westward, we'll really have to watch and see how it sprouts in the Pacific. And switching over to the Pacific forecast right now from the GFS over the next 7 days, you could see definitely starting to see some energy really spike up here roughly around the next 6 to 7 days.

[00:08:37]I guess wave or some sort of energy moving from South America. We see it consolidate. We see a closed the low level center of vorticity consolidating over that low pressure.

[00:08:50]And we definitely see some development here occur in the Pacific. And this happens towards the end of the month.

[00:08:56]And looking at the velocity potential forecast, you could see as well towards the end of the month we start to see greens really strongly appear again in the Pacific, meaning rising air. The MJO is moving back into the Pacific. So, it looks like the next opportunity for the Pacific here, especially the Eastern Pacific, to really start kicking into full gear will probably be towards the end of this month heading into July.

[00:09:22]And this time I do believe we will probably see much more in the way of stronger activity in the Pacific. We're probably going to get our first hurricane.

[00:09:32]And you could also see as well, really quickly before we end off, Uh, uh, forecast out all the way to the end of the range when which now, interestingly enough, goes out to early August. Uh, you could see the MJO remains pretty firmly planted in the Pacific. So, as the weeks goes on, that's probably just going to make things more and more and more active in the Pacific. So, get ready for the Pacific to really turn on here.

[00:10:01]Uh, especially the Eastern Pacific. The West Pack is already looking like it's getting started with this typhoon that is about to become yet another strong to maybe super typhoon.

[00:10:11]Um, but things are really going to kick up here in the Pacific over the next few weeks. But luckily, on the Atlantic side, things remain quiet for now.

[00:10:20]Obviously, both though, we'll see whether or not that changes in the coming weeks, especially as we get closer and closer to the peak of the hurricane season in August. With that being said though, I'm going to end it off for today's discussion. Hope you enjoyed what you saw today. And I hope you guys take the time off to enjoy the rest of the evening as well. Today is Juneteenth, it's a holiday. So, make sure to get out there and celebrate with your friends and family.

[00:10:45]Uh, and also, you know, especially watch the World Cup, too, since we have a lot of World Cup games uh, happening today.

[00:10:51]And, you know, uh, no, we don't talk about sports on here, but hats off to Team USA. At the time of me recording this video, just came off after a brilliant win uh, against Australia. Uh, if I have any Australian watchers, I'm very sorry for bragging in your face. But, you know, got to celebrate in the moment. Nice time of celebration here, and I hope you guys are enjoying it as well. Um, but so, everybody out there, whether you are you uh, or you are whether you're American or Australian or whatever you are, I hope you have a good rest of your evening. Stay safe. Peace up and kindness to you all. I'll talk with you guys again tomorrow.