Silver Price Surges On "Peace" News - Fakeout Or Breakout? - (Record US Gold Exports)

追加: 2026-05-13

[00:00:01]Hey everybody, Smart Silver Stacker here. Hope you're doing well. Welcome to today's live stream. So, a huge uh green candle on the silver chart today and we need to discuss the setup for silver here because I mean initially this looks like a very strong uh rally, right? Up over 6%.

[00:00:25]Miners today confirming things. Sil up 9.61%.

[00:00:31]US markets up pretty significantly today as well. But uh we're going to discuss why there's likely some still some reason for caution here um from a technical standpoint and from just kind of it's not really a fundamental standpoint but from uh a headline standpoint because the fundamentals I think it's pretty clear at this point are not driving these markets. It it remains headlines. Now we'll get into what I'm talking about here as we go through the live stream. We're also going to talk about how the US is record uh we we're exporting a record amount of gold at the moment and that's a you know positive sign for the metals here long term. Um but let's just get into it. Um so this spike that we saw is a result primarily it appears of this headline uh published 11 hours ago in Axios exclusive US and Iran closing in on one page memo to end war officials say that was followed by this post on truth social by the president assuming Iran agrees to give us what has been agreed to which is perhaps a big assumption The already legendary epic fury will be at an end and the highly effective blockade will allow the Hormoo Strait to be open to all including Iran. If they don't agree, the bombing starts and it will be sadly at a much higher level in intensity than it was before.

[00:02:02]All right. Um, so that had a notable effect on oil markets which you can see spiked way down. WTI crude dropped as low as $88, although it's bounced significantly because as we're going to cover this headline in this statement for the president, a little dubious here. Little dubious. Not sure that the uh headlines that are driving the markets today really reflect reality. Uh but that was the effect they had. Right now, from a technical standpoint, we've been talking about the risk of soaring oil prices and how oil and silver have been pretty much trading in an inverse manner. Today, it's almost perfect.

[00:02:41]Right? Right now, silver up 6.4%.

[00:02:45]Oil is down uh about 7%. So, almost in lock step. So, that dynamic remains and uh you know, I wouldn't bet on oil staying down for long here. And we'll get into more of that as well. Um there's an interview from Bloomberg today with the Carile Group. Um the head of their energy flows had some interesting things to say about stock levels of oil which I'll show you here in just a minute. We got about um a one minute clip from him I want to play. But from a technical standpoint, this could be a retest of this blue line here.

[00:03:19]Right. So, silver recently broke down for this bare flag uh back in April, April 23rd, we saw a breakdown from this bare flag and then it's kind of it was basically been flat since then, right? A little bit of downward movement, went as low as $70 uh on escalations in the Middle East and then today we get this peace headline which has caused a retest of this blue line which represents the breakdown level. It's already been tested once back on Friday, bounced off of that. Um, today it looks like we're going to probably close. Futures markets are still open, but probably going to close right around this blue line, maybe slightly above, but I would really want to see a confirmation above this line before we can really start celebrating a lot. So, we have to see what happens tomorrow. Now, there is, you know, another technical setup that you could look at here, which is maybe not as pessimistic, and I'm going to draw those lines for you.

[00:04:14]So it could be that we are in kind of a triangle consolidation here. If we exclude the January uh highs, right, which perhaps were an outlier, perhaps uh silver was moving a little too quick.

[00:04:29]And then we connect these two uh points on the chart here.

[00:04:34]That could be set up for a nice kind of symmetrical triangle consolidation. At which point this would be ambiguous, right? Like we don't know. We haven't broken out to the upside yet. We haven't broken out to the downside. And really, again, technical I think the technicals are still important here because te remember technicals just kind of are a visual illustration of everything that the market knows. So just a visual chart of price discovery, but the price discovery, I'm not sure we really have that working right now. It's more like, you know, a headline uh casino machine.

[00:05:07]So, it can be debated how, you know, useful the technicals are in this environment, but still, I think they're important to uh look at. Another metal I wanted to briefly look at here is copper because copper is looking uh very bullish as well. Appears to be in this uh ascending triangle consolidation. And again, if we exclude the January highs, you've got this kind of resistance level. Looks like we're about to break above that. So, this is going to be one to keep an eye on as well. And speaking of copper, don't forget SD Bullion is giving away 10 10 lb copper bars. All you got to do to enter is go over to their page on X.com/ SDBullion and the instructions are here in this pinned post. You follow them, you like the post, and you repost. Tag a friend for a bonus entry. Contest ends May 30th. Announcer uh winners will be announced on June 2nd. So check that out uh if you're interested. And then you know finally the last silver chart I want to look at before we kind of get on to the news. Um this chart of SLV which is you know the iShares silver trust paper derivative of silver for whatever reason on trading view here the software I'm using the volume feed for the one day chart of uh silver that I use is not working properly. So I like to look at this uh just so we can get accurate volume data.

[00:06:28]And if you look here at the accumulation line, which this is basically the way this is calculated, it factors in volume and price action. You got the volume here. And it kind of tells you whether the market is accumulating silver via the SLV or distributing it.

[00:06:45]And despite the fact that we've had this correction from January, you have this divergence where accumulation is actually higher even though the price has come down significantly. So that's bullish. Right now, it may sound like I'm kind of giving you a silver is going to go up or it's going to go down kind of answer, but honestly, I mean, that's kind of how it is, right? Because it it all depends on what happens with this Iran peace deal at this time. The fundamentals remain very strong. There are some bullish uh setups on the chart here. But if the war escalates or you know this peace deal breaks breaks down, you could see the price come back down.

[00:07:20]And also, you know, the price of oil, price of oil, uh, you know, it did spike down today. Let's switch to a 1 hour chart. Take a look at that. And you can kind of see what happened here.

[00:07:32]There was this Axios headline published and it crashed and then it very quickly bounced back up. I I mentioned something about this on my X account. You can follow me at x.com/stacksmarter.

[00:07:43]I said, uh, shocking. You know, I'm sure the insiders loaded up at the bottom.

[00:07:47]And I posted that at 9:11 a.m. And then sure enough, couple hours later, uh there were these reports that $920 million in crude oil shorts were placed at 3:40 a.m. about 70 minutes before the Axios headline.

[00:08:01]Uh so that's fascinating, right? And I have the feeling, I mean, it seems to fit the the scenario here that these peace headlines, they're just being used for insider trading and market manipulation, right? There's probably no peace deal. Um, there are senior Iranian officials. Uh, at 9:37 a.m.

[00:08:25]Poly Market here posted, "Senior Iranian officials say that a reported US proposal is more of an American wish list than a reality." And, you know, I feel like I've seen this movie before.

[00:08:36]This has kind of been the way this uh has worked out over the past uh month, two months, is that we get talk of a peace deal. uh you know like this is uh not the final this is not the first final peace deal that we've looked at.

[00:08:50]Let me just put it that way. So uh I think that you know we need to exercise caution here because it's possible that nothing has really changed regarding the situation in the Middle East. And as far as the oil price goes, I think we may be headed to, you know, a significant surge here, right? Um, first of all, we've got this headline. Uh, you know, the straight of Hormuz, which is what the, you know, everything's really about here in terms of energy markets, remains closed. Uh, you had an Iranian flag tanker trying to breach the naval blockade today, trying to get out and, uh, a US aircraft fired a 20mm cannon to disable its rudder. So, that doesn't sound to me like we're really nearing a peace deal. Of course, over the past couple days, there were these attacks on the UAE, allegedly by Iran. Iran claims it wasn't them. I believe the latest is that they've said it was the Saudis. So, you know, there's something going on over there, but I just wouldn't set your uh, you know, heart on a peace deal here. I don't know that peace is going to break out. We're all going to sing uh Kumbaya. Um, this is the clip I wanted to play for you. So, this guy is >> uh Jeff Curry. He's the head of energy flows at the Carile Group. And just listen to what he has to say about energy inventory levels because we remain in a significant deficit here and they're draining fast. And I think that this Axios headline combined with uh the release of record amounts of oil from the strategic petroleum reserve etc. is um part of an attempt to keep the lid on oil prices, which at the end of the day is probably going to make the uh inevitable squeeze in energy markets that much worse. But let's just have a listen at what he has to say here.

[00:10:47]>> When do storage tanks run empty?

[00:10:49]>> Um you're parts of the world like Australia, Philippines, Thailand, you are. But the question is when and where?

[00:10:57]Um, you know, I I still say that with you, you know, it's going to be, you know, sometime in the month of May that you're going to end up with um Europe hitting um you know, tank bottoms. And in the US, it's somewhere in that July 4th time period, if not sooner. By the way, the inventories number coming out of the US, the ones we got last night, the ones last week, I've never seen anything like that before. And I think that it's important to remember that these inventory numbers um let's define terms, a deficit versus a shortage. We have a deficit today, meaning that demand is above supply and we're drawing inventories. It's not a shortage yet.

[00:11:34]So, to answer your question, you have the shortages in places like um you know, Asia and it's not that bad yet um because you're not completely at tank bottoms. Um but in places like Europe and the United States, you're in a deficit and you don't hit the shortages until you hit tank bottoms.

[00:11:54]Okay, so we are on a trajectory to hit tank bottoms. And you also have to factor in that even if a peace deal is agreed to today, let's say that the straight of Hormuz is not going to get fired up right away. I mean, it's very difficult to coordinate uh all those ships that are pulled up in the Persian Gulf. The infrastructure remains damaged. the uh oil wells and a lot of gas wells have already been uh shuttered because there's no available storage. So, it takes a while to get those back up and running. And also, and I'm not an expert on this, but my understanding is that often times when you restart a mature oil well, the production never comes back to uh you know, full production.

[00:12:35]Like you got to manage these things carefully. They got a bunch of uh you know, petroleum engineers and stuff out there trying to ek the maximum amount of oil out of these. And once you shut them down, it can be much harder to do that restarting them. So oil supply chains, even if a peace is declared, uh, then it's going to take a while to get these things back up to normal. So, you know, look, if you've followed the silver market for a long time, you're you're familiar with how manipulation takes place, right? And now, I mean, it's kind of happening right out in the open. and they're being pretty blatant with the uh trades that are being placed before these headlines drop and affect the price of oil. Right? This is like the fourth time I think that this has happened since the war started where there have been these reports of uh you know hundreds of millions of dollars worth of trades being placed immediately before a headline drops and you know it's not a coincidence right uh maybe once but four times I don't think so.

[00:13:36]So, uh, the reason that this crisis is going to be exacerbated by the fact that prices are being suppressed, and I've talked about this dynamic many times when it comes to the silver market, is that if you keep a price artificially low, it's going to uh foster consumption and it will uh in the case of oil, I don't know that it's going to prohibit the um, you know, creation of new wells and new drilling because the timetable is so compressed here. Certainly with silver that was a thing because uh the suppression has been going on for decades and that's why now you know silver even though it's come off its highs is still you know much higher than it was a year ago. Um and in the oil market it's not you're not getting the high prices that would discourage uh consumers from consuming large amounts of oil. Right? The higher the price goes, you're going to see the demand destruction. we probably need that because the supply has been uh severely impinged, but you're not because you keep getting these kind of artificial manipulations. Now, the headlines I think clearly are kind of fake. Um I don't, you know, believe that we're as close to a peace deal as Axios and the administration are telling us, but who knows what's going on behind the scene with uh you know, paper manipulation and futures contracts. Anyway, um accordingly, according to this report, now I wasn't able to corroborate this and this is from J feed, so kind of an unknown source, but they have a quote from an administration official that uh signed the deal within the week or faced the reality of what comes next. Uh that's from a senior administration official following Trump's uh post on Truth Social, you know, where he said that if we don't get a peace deal, we're going to resume bombing. But of course, who knows if we will or we won't, right?

[00:15:24]Uh we've heard a lot that we we heard, remember a couple weeks ago that we were going to destroy their entire infrastructure, send them back to the stone age, and then the next day, you know, we had the big Taco Tuesday where, oh, we'll just indefinitely extend the timeline. And I don't know, you know, what exactly the motivation here is. Um, reportedly, uh, Israel didn't know about this, uh, you know, peace, this one-page peace memorandum that was floated today, and I believe the admin, uh, officials from Israel stated that they were getting ready to resume combat operations. So, you know, who knows?

[00:16:02]There's certainly been a huge military buildup in the Middle East. Also, it's interesting that if you extend a 7-day deadline, and again, you know, we know that the deadlines are not worth, you know, much. I would say the paper they're written on, but I don't know that they're really they're just, you know, verbal deadlines that are kind of thrown out there and they just continue to get extended. Um, but it is interesting that the 7-day deadline ends on what, uh, May 13th, immediately before the planned trip where Trump's heading to China. So, that's an important date, something to keep an eye on. Although, there could be more can kicking, right? You just don't know. And I had somebody in the chat here say, "Oh, good. Time for more uh incorrect predictions at the beginning of the live stream here. Miners dig deeper." Well, you know, uh, yeah, a lot of my recent, uh, short-term forecasts have been, uh, inaccurate, too. True.

[00:17:03]It's tough to time these. I mean really I think the only thing to do if you wanted to be correct forecasting over the past 2 months the only model that would have worked if you had figured out um some way to predict what the headline manipulation was going to be or if you were you know on an insider uh you know WhatsApp thread or or whatever it is that you know they're using to coordinate the insider trading. Um but it's very difficult I'll acknowledge to figure out what's going to happen right now because nothing is based on fundamentals. It's like you almost might be better off just taking what would be the next logical uh event and just betting against that happening, right?

[00:17:40]And you might have done better. Um, but that's how it is, right? That's why I say none of this is financial advice.

[00:17:45]Um, and you know, short-term forecasts in general by their very nature are uh very difficult to make, right? I tend to stick my neck out and go ahead and say what I think is the most likely scenario, but you got to understand it's all based on probabilities, right? And in this environment, headlines are driving things, not fundamentals. Um, let's talk about why the long-term forecast for the metals, though, is uh quite good. And, you know, my scorecard on the long-term forecast of metals has been pretty good. Uh, if you've been watching the channel for more than, you know, a month or two, I've been stacking since silver was like in the mid teens.

[00:18:22]I think my dollar cost average on silver is somewhere in the mid20s. I'd have to look at my spreadsheet. uh but same on gold much lower than current prices and the long-term forecast for the metals remains very good right gold and silver um this is a chart from Fred exports of goods nonmonetary gold and interesting to note that this has spiked in recent uh you know really since 2025 this has spiked up to record all-time highs most recent data we have here is Q4 2025 but I suspect that this is a trend that continues continues to accelerate to the upside. Um here's a headline from the deep dive. Fivewe gold import freeze in India drives a $20 premium over global prices. So in uh India, you're paying more for your gold than you are in the rest of the world. They have had a disruption to imports caused by administrative bottlenecks and unresolved tax issues. But this shows you if they're seeing a a spike in premiums on a import disruption that demand for gold remains very strong there, right?

[00:19:36]Because you stop the gold from flowing in internationally and prices domestically go up. And this is indicative of what has been happening uh for some time now. It's why our large uh it's why non-monetary gold exports are at a record high and likely this is taking place in the silver market as well. You might recall that in China uh they recently imported a record amount of silver. Much of that I'm sure coming from the US or from sources you know that maybe would have competed uh we would have competed with them like we would have bought it had they not right but some of it likely flown out of the US as well. And if you take a look, if you think silver's doing well today in the US, take a look at China's most recent data here. Uh right now we're trading at about $19,137 Chinese yuan per kilo of silver. That equals uh $2,8962 if you convert that to US dollars. And then if you do the math to get a uh troy ounce price, that comes out to about $87.39.

[00:20:47]That's what a troy ounce of silver is trading for in China right now on the Shanghai gold exchange. And for the record, that does not include VAT, right? The value added tax. That is value added tax is something that retail consumers are going to pay. But this price here is prevat.

[00:21:04]So $87 over there. whereas in the US we're at $77. So about a $10 premium there. And that is the kind of premium, the kind of arbitrage opportunity which will continue to see silver flowing from west to east. And this is a bullish long-term indicator for silver, right? We see the same thing in gold. We're exporting gold. We're exporting silver. So, you know, if you've got physical silver in the US, if you got physical gold, um that is likely going to benefit from that dynamic in the future. When I don't know, I don't know when that dynamic is going to change. But um eventually it'll have to because you know we'll get drained of silver just as um Jeff Curry was explaining in that clip and it was nice to hear him say that because it's something I say quite often is that you've got to understand the difference between a deficit and a shortage. Right?

[00:22:06]So you get the deficit first. That means that demand is higher than supply.

[00:22:12]You're draining down stocks of the metal. That's the dynamic that we've seen in the silver market for, you know, like five years now to the tune of hundreds of millions of ounces. After the deficit, you get the shortage because a lot of times you'll talk about how, you know, there's a deficit and people will conflate the terms deficit and shortage. And so you see a lot of these um, you know, kind of like smooth brain commentators talking about how there's no deficit. There's no shortage of silver. You can go down to the store and it's on the shelf. Um, but you know, you got to understand that sustained deficits lead to shortages. It's exactly the same dynamic we're facing in oil right now, just on kind of a compressed time scale. So, uh, look, that's what I have to leave you with today is that caution is warranted here. I know a lot of people don't like to hear that and maybe I'll be proven wrong, right? I mean, it's like, like I said, if the peace deal is real, you're probably going to see silver surge. I think that one thing that you can derive from today's uh market action, I mean, just look at the miners, right? the SIL even though we're still below uh this trend line. We haven't reclaimed that yet. It's up almost 10% on the day. Um the SILJ maybe you can take a look at this trend line.

[00:23:20]We're looking pretty good there. But this big gap up that when peace is uh you know whenever that comes around and if energy supply chains normalize silver is like uh you know looking for a boost here. It's looking to break out. You can see how much pressure there is. Um same thing with uh gold and the gold miners.

[00:23:41]Now, gold today only up about 3%, but the GDX up 7.73%, GDXJ 8.47%. So, clearly, um, you know, the metals, I think, are starting to look kind of like balloons that have been held underwater and they're ready to shoot up. But the problem is that there is this global uh energy supply issue. And if the price of oil sharply increases, you could see uh maybe one le one last leg down in the silver price.

[00:24:09]I've been saying this for a while that we might touch the 200 day moving average. Although, it's also important to note that the 200 day moving average, the longer this happens, the higher it gets, right? It's still moving uh up and there's still a significant gap here.

[00:24:21]But look, um you know, I do think that we could see a decline in silver in the short term if we get, you know, resumption of military activities, which my assessment is that that's a high probability likelihood, right? But it doesn't mean it's going to happen. Uh, but if we do, that'll be the buying opportunity of a lifetime. It's just my take, right? I'm not giving you financial advice. I'm not saying if silver crashes, buy it. But I think there's a lot of people that are going to be buying today at $77 and then, you know, should we see sub60 or, you know, a return to even the $50 line. And I'm not going to bore you with why I think that's possible. But if you've been watching the channel for a while, you know, uh that you know they're going to be really really bearish and sentiment is going to be very poor at the lows and that's going to be the best time to enter uh new positions. I think now you can just dollar cost average. You can buy today, you can buy then if it crashes, if it goes up, you can buy. Uh because long-term I think that you know price is headed much much higher. And eventually this dynamic where you see oil down and silver up or the reverse that's going to change, right? But I don't know when the way that you're going to know that it has changed is that you'll see it happen, right? Um, and that'll really be a bullish catalyst because I think ultimately, uh, the price of oil and the price of silver and the price of gold, just commodities across the board, agricultural commodities, uh, they're all headed much higher because we're going to see significant dollar debasement. You know, we didn't really talk about that in this live stream, but that's coming. Um, $39 trillion in debt and counting. And, you know, if oil does sore and you see a recession as a result of that, you know what they're going to do? They're going to print. So shortterm I would say be cautious, have some powder dry. Uh if silver breaks out of this pattern and we get a confirmed breakout, well I mean that might be a good entry signal too. But for now um I would just uh you know remain cautious.

[00:26:11]Anyway, that's it for today. Thanks for watching everybody. Do me a favor, smash the like button, subscribe to the channel, follow me on xx.com/stacksmarter.

[00:26:18]Sign up for the free e newswsletter with the link down in the description. And stay safe and happy stacking. And I will catch you next time. Smarts silver stacker out.