A dominant power strategically consolidates its influence by resolving issues where settling locks in advantages (like West Africa security ties) while deliberately maintaining ambiguity on issues where uncertainty serves as leverage (like Taiwan), using crises such as resource scarcity to concentrate leverage in its hands.
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America Is Asserting Dominance. The Anti-Western Bloc Is Fracturing.Added:
In one week, America killed the number two men in ISIS in Africa. The world's oil reserves slid toward record lows with the Strait of Hormuz still shut.
And the two most powerful rivals America has took turns flying into Beijing. The American president first, then Putin.
The press gave you three separate stories. And I'm going to tell you one story. This was a week of American consolidation, a power asserting dominance where it's been slipping, and cleaning up loose ends. So, let me show you the pattern.
On May 16th, US and Nigerian forces killed Abu Bilal al-Minauwi, described as the global number two of the Islamic State, confirmed by Trump, confirmed by Nigeria's government. Real terrorist, real threat.
The press filed it as a counterterrorism win and moved on.
Now, here's my assessment.
Counterterrorism was the occasion, but consolidation was the purpose.
I want you to look at what America is now doing on the world stage. First, let's look at the neighborhood here. The three countries above Nigeria.
Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger all had coups between 2020 and 2023. Each one expelled France, each one expelled the United States.
Niger alone hosted around a thousand US troops and a hundred million dollar drone base, gone by mid-2024.
That is what American influence slipping actually looks like on a map.
Now, Russia filled the vacuum. The Wagner Group, then its state-controlled successor, the Africa Corps, protect the regime, take the mining and mineral contracts. Now, China is a separate pressure, not Russia's security racket, but its own commercial and financing push across the continent. Two different rivals, same direction. Western influence was out, theirs were in. Now, the consolidation move. Nigeria is the largest economy in Africa, a major oil producer, and the one big coastal anchor that has not slipped. So, here's my call stated plainly. This strike was America planting its flag on the asset it could not afford to lose, dressed as a counterterrorism operation. A months-long joint mission doesn't just kill a man, it binds the most important military in West Africa to American command, exactly where America has been bleeding influence. So, that's not a coincidence of timing, that is the design. So, my assessment is this. This is not a leaked cable. The honest perspective here, or mine rather, is that when you hit ISIS where ISIS is, fine.
But, if Washington doesn't deepen security ties with Nigeria from here, then Washington weakens. So, let's talk about the Strait of Hormuz, the choke point about a fifth of the world's oil normally moves through, is closed, and global stockpiles are sliding toward all-time lows. This is confirmed. Now, here how Here's how that serves American consolidation. A scarce, dangerous oil market makes every reliable barrel from a stable partner more valuable, which is exactly what an anchored Nigeria becomes. And it raises the price of admission for anyone who wants to be the broker who can calm the strait down.
Scarcity doesn't weaken the dominant power that controls alternatives and alliances. It concentrates leverage in its hands. So, keep that in mind.
So, the choke point isn't just a crisis that America manages, it's a crisis that handled right hardens American indispensability.
So, whether it nets out that way is genuinely argued by people, uh you know, economists, etc. But, there is a pattern here. Let's talk about May 14th and 15th. The American president President Trump, he's in Beijing with Xi Jinping.
Confirmed, they discussed the Iran war and the Hormuz blockade directly. And then, this is the part, while they were toasting at the state banquet, the Kremlin announced that Putin would visit China, too, very soon. This was announced during the American president's dinner.
So, China had also just hosted Iran's foreign minister, positioning itself as the one who can lean on Tehran over Hormuz. So, watch the order. America gets received first, sets the terms of the conversation, leaves, then Putin gets his slot to find out what the agenda already is.
So, this is consolidation by sequence.
The dominant power goes first and frames the board. The challenger comes after, reacting to the terms set without him.
So, that's not a a Russia-China united front, is it?
So, let's talk about what's coming next.
There's a hierarchy here that's being demonstrated. So, if you actually pay attention, order is in the message. So, this is the one that actually proves the thesis, because it's about a loose end America chose not to tie off. So, two days of meetings on Taiwan, the single most important issue between them, no framework.
None. She warned that mishandling Taiwan could cause clashes and even conflict.
The American readout didn't even mention Taiwan. It talked trade and Iran.
So, the president said, his words, no commitment called either way.
And called US weapons for Taiwan a very good negotiating chip. All confirmed.
Remember what I said before about the the petrodollar and the semiconductor?
So here's what here's why that fits consolidation. So a power tying off loose ends doesn't resolve every issue.
It resolves the ones where settling locks in its advantage and keeps open the ones where ambiguity is the advantage. So West Africa, you act, you lock it in. Hormuz, you stay indispensable. Beijing, you set the order. Taiwan, keep it unresolved because an open Taiwan is a permanent lever over Beijing and a market for American arms. So leaving that loose end loose itself is a move. And that's exactly why I I spoke about perhaps uh you know, my thesis is that uh Trump will approach Taiwan to tie semiconductors to the US dollar.
But we'll see about that. My my prediction I said that would happen within the next 12 months.
So let's see what happens. We can definitely see that America is cleaning up loose ends. Where America is losing dominance or was losing dominance, America is now asserting dominance.
And perhaps the reason why there was no framework discussed is it because it's because it was deliberate. So let's see what happens.
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