AMD Stock: Why I wouldn't be a buyer right now

[00:00:00]Today, we're going to be taking an objective look at all of the semiconductor names. We're going to talk about if I think that this is a bull trap, how I would be approaching a lot of these semiconductor names right now, how they fit in our framework, and what my 6- to 12-month outlook is for most of these positions. Now, I want you to understand that right now, I don't have any positions open on any semiconductor names. I was extremely bullish on the semi space back in February and March of 2025. I publicly called out the bottom on AMD as we were trading inside of that smart money zone. We basically traded AMD from March of 2025, and I fully stopped trading this as of April of 2026. We did really, really well with this name. Of course, I missed this last parabolic leg in the market, but we were really bullish. Now, the reason for that with basically all of these stocks and all of these names is they were trading at ridiculous discount pricing. Now, as we go through this video and we look at a lot of these stocks, you're going to see me use the smart money zones and these discount pricing models and drawings. If you want, you can get access to them and learn how to do this on your own with our smart money zone and market structure course. The link is down in the description. Essentially, what I look to do is buy stocks that are trading at massive discounted pricing, and then look to sell into the breakout or sell into the strength. If we look at this prior setup that happened on AMD, you can see the same exact thing happened. Price pulled right back into this institutional buy zone here in October of 2022. Price bounced off of that level, went parabolic, ran about 280% within 500 days, then price reverted right back down into discounted pricing. Then, since that low, which like I said, I sold early, the stock is now up about 576%.

[00:02:03]Now, what I usually look to do is accumulate at lows, sell into highs. Am I going to time the top perfectly? Of course not. Do I have to? Of course not.

[00:02:13]The goal is very simple, buy into discounted markets, sell or start to take some profits into overpriced markets. Now, the other thing that I want you to understand is that the sentiment and I posted this about a week ago. The sentiment when price is trading in these discount ranges is absolutely terrible. If you go back and you look at this video that I made, there were so many people who were dogging AMD. The sentiment was trash. Everybody thought that there was no way that this was going to break out. And now, the sentiment has completely shifted. When price is trading at insane premiums, nobody is thinking through, in my opinion, an objective lens. And if we look at a lot of these other names, these were all showing the same type of situation. MU at the time, back in March and April of 2025, was showing the same exact setup, and we were bullish back then. Price pulling back into that smart money zone, pulling back into major discounted pricing. Since then, price has continued to obviously break out and just go absolutely parabolic. Now, once again, I thought that there was a pretty good chance back here at around down, and that's not the case. Price literally just continued to run another 100%. But, there were a couple of things that I want you to take into consideration.

[00:03:40]Here's another example over here. Price pulls right back into discount and then rallies. The first thing is that it's very rare that stocks go parabolic in the first place. What I mean when I say parabolic is that a stock just moves 3, 4, 500% without ever pulling back. I mean, it's possible.

[00:04:00]We're seeing this in the semi space right now, but it's very rare. In most cases, you can see price will break out, price will revert, price will break out, price will revert, price will break out, price will revert. So, if you're buying these discounts and selling into the breakouts, you're going to do really well long-term. Yes, you're going to leave a lot of money on the table during these parabolic moves, but the thing to take into consideration is that these parabolic moves don't last forever. For instance, let's look at Intel, right?

[00:04:28]Many people look at this insane Intel rally, but imagine if you bought Intel all the way back in the year 2000.

[00:04:36]You're only up about 140% in the past 26 years. I mean, even if you bought Intel in 2020, you're only up about 65%. So, this idea that you know, these parabolic runs are going to last forever, they don't. At some point, right? And I'm not saying it's right now. At some point, these parabolic moves come to an end. Do they have to come crashing down? No. Is the actual landscape of the market fundamentally different today than it was in the past?

[00:05:12]Of course, right? AI and semiconductors are the main thing that's hot right now, and that wasn't around back in the year 2000, and wasn't around in the year 2005, it wasn't around in all of these other times. But, the thing that I want you to always look through the lens with is am I getting a discount on a quality stock, or am I paying into a premium? Am I paying into hype? And as somebody who's been doing this for 11 years, do I think that the market, specifically these uh semiconductor names have to reject? No, they don't have to, right?

[00:05:46]The market doesn't have to do anything.

[00:05:48]But, if I was looking at this through a long-term lens, and I asked myself objectively, am I getting a discount on price right now? My answer is no. And that's why I'm simply not trading them.

[00:06:01]Now, let's look at a more granular level, and let's see if this is a potential top or a potential bull trap.

[00:06:11]The first thing that I want to look at here is going to be our bull cycle indicators. So, as I said before, the smart money zone is going to show you massive discounts. The bull cycle indicator and the bull cycle framework, which you guys can get for free, it's also going to be below and tagged on my homepage, looks to find these parabolic breakouts. All right, if you look at AMD, this literally caught the parabolic move that we see. This also caught the move on MU. They're literally it's up over almost 1,000% since this bull cycle started. So, this is a really strong system and a really strong indicator, and the link will be down and below so you can learn it. The thing that I want you to understand about what's happening on these smaller time frames is that these moves are getting less and less explosive, right? The structure of AMD on this daily time frame, and as I said before, this is why I wouldn't go shorting, right? I'm not telling anybody to grab puts or anything. I'm just looking at this from a profit-taking perspective if I was still in it, and I'm not. Looking at this, the structure on AMD specifically still bullish. Each pullback continues to make a higher low.

[00:07:19]However, the thing that we want to see within bullish market structure, and I talk about this in the smart money course, is higher highs and higher lows.

[00:07:29]Well, at this point, AMD has printed a lower high on the daily time frame. That is not a good sign, right? It doesn't mean that it has to crash, but it is showing that each of these bounces is becoming a little bit weaker. And until we can take out that previous high, what we could see here is a potential issue getting through 560 to about 570 dollars. This would be a potential small bearish smart money zone rejection, and this would also lead up to an institutional sell zone. So, this here on the smaller time frame, what I would want to see is a blow right through this resistance level. Right, if we can take that previous high out, cool, we can start going parabolic again. But until that happens, this begins to worry me. Now, let's say that AMD were to start rejecting at this level and start taking out these previous lows. That's where I think the top would actually be in it in. Right, that's where I think we would actually start to see the move to fill that gap to the downside. But none of that has happened yet. We're at a potential rejection zone. We are not looking really healthy on this daily time frame, even though the bigger time frames are still showing buying pressure. And once again, if the daily is not looking that healthy, and the long term is not trading at a discount, we're trading at a premium, this could potentially be a bull trap. Now, this is something that my mentor a long, long time ago seared into my brain. This is a chart of what a parabolic market cycle looks like. And I want to share this with you because, like we said before, it doesn't mean that this has to be the top. I don't necessarily love the way that AMD and Intel and MU and a lot of these other semis are looking, but I do think that learning this and understanding this is going to fundamentally help your career over the long term. This market cycle is broken down into basically four major player points. The first is going to be the stealth phase or the takeoff phase.

[00:09:30]This is considered smart money. So, as I said before, these smart money zones, so basically when we were buying, you know, February, March, April, May of 2025 up until probably right about November of 2025, this is considered your stealth phase. This is going to be where smart money and big players who understand that something's extremely undervalued start to enter a position. In a perfect world, this is where you would want to start taking your trade. The second section is the institutional investor section. This is basically when price starts to come out of the smart money zone. Price starts to break out to the upside, and then we get our first initial pullback. This initial pullback is considered to be a bear trap, right?

[00:10:19]A lot of people think that oh, this is maybe the local top. And to be quite honest, in a non-parabolic environment, this normally is the top.

[00:10:28]And you have to realize that the reason that price starts to pull back is all of these smart money players who started to get in at the low are now covering their positions and rotating into other smart money trades. The next section is only occurring when we get into a parabolic type of situation. This is the mania phase. Now, the mania phase for me is basically from April until right now. We are currently in the middle of the mania phase. This is when the stock starts to get extreme media attention, extreme social attention all over the internet, all over X. Everybody's pumping into it.

[00:11:04]Retail's loading up. There becomes a lot of enthusiasm. There becomes a lot of greed, potentially some delusion, and a new paradigm is beginning to build. At some point, that mania phase tops, right? I just showed you. It happens literally, it doesn't have to happen right now, but it happens all of the time. What will normally happen there after the mania phase presents itself is that price will pull back rapidly. And more importantly, as you can see, price will make a lower high. That could be where we are right now. Once the lower high is established, everybody who bought in the mania phase right here starts to think, oh no, never mind. Now this is the time to load up. Let's start Let's start playing into this breakout.

[00:11:47]Let's start playing into this massive run. It's going to continue to run. Why?

[00:11:50]Because there's a ton of greed, there's a ton of delusion. This bounce is basically exit liquidity. This is those institutional investors who are still holding on to this who are taking their positions off the table and they're selling into retail, right? This is where the term exit liquidity comes from. Retail investors become exit liquidity. What will tend to happen is the lower high will occur and then price just plunges. This is where you get a bull trap. This is where you get fear, capitulation, price continues to absolutely burn itself. Now once again, where does the burn come back to? Well, normally to the mean, right? Normally right back down into the institutional support zone or into the smart money zone and the whole cycle starts all over again. The whole thing. Smart money starts to accumulate in discount.

[00:12:40]Institutions start to accumulate inside of the institutional buy zone and the whole cycle happens all over again. And as I said before, it doesn't mean that it has to happen right this second, but we have to remain objective as traders, right? You can see that it happens here.

[00:12:57]Price basically pulls back, you get a small bounce, then you have this as a bull as a a a bull trap, price plunges.

[00:13:07]We can see it happen here. If we move into the daily chart like we just did and we go all the way back, right here.

[00:13:14]Price sells off, price makes that lower high, this becomes the bull trap that we literally just talked about and then price burns. Same exact situation if we look all the way back here. price goes parabolic, price makes lower high, price rallies over and over and over again, right? It doesn't always have to mean that we're hitting a local top right now, but normally this is going to present itself each and every single time, and this is why I'm out of all of these positions at this point. And yes, did I leave at this point almost 100% of the table? Yes, but it's okay.

[00:13:51]Now, let's look at something like MU, right? MU is kind of in the same exact situation that we just talked about, right? We are obviously in that mania phase. Obviously, we could see a potential bounce back up to 1,100 1,150, but at some point we are going to hit a potential top. And the main thing that I want you to walk away from with this video is not this idea that the, you know, semis are collapsing right now. To be quite honest, I do think that there's about a 70% chance that we're hitting a top within the next 2 to 3 months. Um it looks to me like each one of these bounces, as I've already shown you, is looking weaker and weaker each time.

[00:14:31]However, I want you to really just always think to yourself whenever you're taking a position, whether it's semis or any stock. Number one, where in the cycle am I getting in at? Am I getting a discount? Am I paying a premium? What's happening? Is the internal or the short-term structure bullish or bearish?

[00:14:47]And ultimately, am I going to be part of a trap? When I look at Intel, it smells to me like a potential trap, like a push back up and then a burn. When I look at MU, it smells like a trap to me, a push back up and then a burn. When I look at AMD, it smells like a trap to me. Now, once again, I wouldn't dare short, I wouldn't dare bet against the US economy or the US market, but I will 100% say that we are in a mania phase. And at some point, whether it's today, tomorrow, next month, 3 months from now, the mania phase will end. All of it will dry up, the institutions will get their bag, and the last thing that I want is to see retail, hard working individuals hold the bag.