In asymmetric conflicts, apparent rigidity from one side often masks underlying strategic flexibility, as regimes may only demonstrate flexibility when they perceive they are losing power; the perception gap between observers and the opposing regime can lead to fundamental misunderstandings about the true state of conflict dynamics.
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Deep Dive
The Secret Iran "Flexibility" They Tried To HideAdded:
I could talk as to why a lot of people think that like a lot of Americans think that America is essentially losing the war. From their end, nothing has happened in weeks. That the US basically just stopped the war. Nothing has happened in weeks. And Trump's saying that we already have a regime change is Trump's way of saying that mission accomplished, we're done. But there's a lot of jokes about how basically the war started from like initially there was talk about regime change to now the war basically went to what's it called?
Just open the Strait of Hormuz that was already open before the war.
And everyone still believes that the regime in Iran is controlling the Strait of Hormuz.
They believe that Trump gave the regime more money than Obama did.
They believe Trump was talk They believe that Trump's crazy and was talking to himself when some sort of deal is made.
Like Yeah. So, that ended up being not true.
Like we ended up Like when Trump was Yeah, like when when Trump was saying that they are being so flexible, a lot of people thought that Trump is talking to himself. And then now we have information from the inside the regime that shows Trump was telling the truth.
Yeah. And yeah. And also the flexibility of the Islamic Republic shows that they're hurting.
So, like they wouldn't be this flexible.
They wouldn't At least some of them wouldn't try to be this flexible unless the United States had the upper hand.
They see things But from their end, the regime isn't being flexible. They see regime just like canceling and saying screw it, we're not even going to go to Pakistan.
And it's all the regime is in such a strong position that they're they only need to negotiate.
But they're missing >> has Yeah. Nothing has happened in weeks that from their end, absolutely nothing has happened in weeks. We accomplished nothing. And Trump's saying that we already have a regime change is Trump's way of saying mission accomplished, we're done.
Yeah. Yeah. What they're missing is that the reason why the regime has to show a strong face is because it needs to save face among his followers. They don't understand the internal dynamics of the Islamic Republic. That's their problem.
Yeah.
But thank you, Samantha. Is it The good thing about Samantha is that he's still connected to a whole bunch of these leftist views. So, she's like our She's like our spy. She comes in and reports to us what they're saying.
Mark's whisper.
Yeah.
>> [laughter] >> Yes.
Okay, next we have Danny.
So, I wanted to respond to what Ian was saying earlier about Israeli drones flying too high to be able to tell who is who.
You're making it sound like we have a remote pilot flying the drone and firing based on what he is seeing.
But I wonder if maybe you're what you're describing is last decade's weapons. But this decade's weapons are more like autonomous drone swarms. And whether it's by using AI to identify which group of people is which and having a human confirm before firing or else somehow else integrating information from some other sources. I think the technology today is beyond just shooting what you can directly see with the aircraft that's doing the shooting. But again, I don't have any personal knowledge on these types of weapons.
Can I push back a bit on that?
Please.
Let me just point out that we've never >> [clears throat] >> What you're describing has never been seen in history.
And I'd prefer not to use the Iranian people as the guinea pig.
So, that's just my opinion. I And until we see that the technology work the way you're [clears throat] describing, I think we should plan around a strategy that involves things that we know will work. People are saying it was in Ukraine in Ukraine. People are in the point in chat they're saying it was tried in Ukraine.
You had crap You had crowds of people on the ground and you're differentiating between enemies and friendlies from a drone? No.
I don't know if that's what I was People were saying in the chat.
>> But I don't think Go ahead. Okay, okay. Go ahead.
If you go ahead.
If watch a lot of the footage of the January 8th and 9th, what I saw was pockets literally just I don't know if I want to call them police officers, but they're getting out of police cars in random positions and just firing at the protesters.
The In some cases, they were a phalanx of pickup trucks with machine guns mounted, but in other cases, it was just people with small arms firing from police vehicles. I just don't think that's something that you can identify from the air.
But I And I would just suggest that until we've seen that happen, we should plan on something else. And I think having armed Mojahedin-e Khalq on the ground among the protesters has is a much higher, what do you call it, situational awareness than a drone. And so, if you don't have that second thing, then I don't think you should I don't think you should risk it unless you're ready to take a lot of casualties, which maybe people maybe people are, but I don't think I guess I What I'm really saying is I don't think that the drones can stop casualties.
I do think they can be a deterrent and they can put fear in the hearts of the Basij, but I don't think they can actually stop casualties once you get in a situation where you have crowds of people being fired on.
That's my position.
Guy, why don't you come up and respond, please?
So, sorry.
I just went to get a knife from my dad.
So, the timing was interesting. I disagree. First of all, the operators are probably going to be local.
At least some of them.
Okay.
There we go. The operators, at least some of them are probably going to be local. And I've seen like the the amount of control you have over drones these days, without getting into too much detail, is very impressive. I think you can do a lot of things that might surprise you. And it's not fit for an every situation.
But first of all, the fact that it wouldn't still fear is the deterrence effect is probably going to be enough.
And I assume it's also like in conjunction with the Immortal Guard.
Like it's not either or.
And there seems to be a plan for a combined effort, but we've seen the deterrence capability in March of these of these drones as well as the ability to target their videos of them targeting like an individual within an inch of like there's a bike going through and it shoots the person the bike keeps going through and is unharmed. So, there seems to be a high fidelity in of like how exact you can be in your strikes.
Okay.
Let's go through the responses a bit.
Everybody else from now we're doing responses. If you could keep it just a bit shorter so that we could get to the next person as well, the next main topic.
All right. Who's next? Next is Sketch.
Yes. I I spoke a little bit on this earlier, but let me expound on it a little bit. I want to go off what he just said. We already saw this work. We've already seen the videos of those work. This is not a new thing. I don't think we're using new drone drone swarms. I think we're using MQ-9 Reapers like we did last month Yeah, last month where we hit individuals. There's a guy with a turret on a car. We can hit that specific car.
Like the cameras on these things are amazing. If you look at your watch, they can tell the time on your watch. These cameras are no joke.
Like they they can really zoom in. Is it going to be without collateral damage?
Of course not. It's war. It's literally war. But does that mean that they're going to know and have maybe communication from the crowd but they're going to have they're going to see they're coming out of that building, hit that building. They're in those cars, hit those cars. They're going to be able to tell who has a gun in hand. Like they may not have AI controlling, but they're going to have AI show them who has guns.
They're going to have AI that can say who has a gun. They're going to have that that kind of AI does exist. It is used. And we have literally already seen this. We have literally already seen them hit one car in a column. We have already seen them hit the points the block blockades in the road roadblocks of where that where they're just waiting to see who they let through.
They check points. We've already seen this. Checkpoints. That's the word I was looking for. You Thank you very much.
We've already seen them hit checkpoints.
We've already seen them hit individuals in a crowd, individual cars. If you have a car with a mounted gun on it, they're going to be able to hit it. So, I'm not talking about new technology. I'm not talking about future technology. I'm talking about things we have already seen. Now, if they attack and they keep Swarms, yes, but swarms of MQ-9 Reapers in the air. Like the big war battle tested drones that that with why we used to call Obama the droner-in-chief the because he used so many drones. I'm talking about those drones. And those drones these days are very precise. And they are very If you Like when you when a crowd sees someone shooting, the whole crowd goes away from the shots. That leaves whoever is shooting open.
Will they still be able to run a car through a crowd? Yeah, they can run through a car through a crowd and maybe grab some people, maybe run some people over. It's not going to be without collateral damage, but those people going into the crowd risks people breaking them window and pulling them out. And that thing has also been seen being people that were captured be recuperated. That's also been seen.
But you can't expect like the Maduro thing, it really spoiled people. Saying that nothing has happened, that's a a proper big propaganda way to see it because it's ridiculous.
What the Maduro thing did was it did show the power and the technology, but it also spoiled people into thinking that these things can be done that fast always.
No, of course not. It's a very different situation. And that's all I had to say about that. I'll mute myself.
Okay, Shauna.
Okay, sorry. I was talking and then I didn't press the right button.
I wanted to point out that while Jewish Samantha is correct in why Americans maybe feel like we're losing, I think we also need to remember that she's talking about people who are actually paying attention.
So, a lot of Americans aren't paying attention like to national stuff and not international stuff.
I don't think most Americans are actually paying attention at all, to be honest, to the international politics. I think that they're paying attention to the gas prices.
They're concerned about the housing market. They're concerned about They might not like Trump, but the reason they don't like Trump is because they feel like he's trying to change the way voting goes. Like I think of my mom who's like a normie who thinks that believes whatever CNN says. I'm sure there's people on the right who just believe whatever Fox says. There's those boomer types and I think that's a lot of Americans. I think a lot of Americans they're concerned about They might have feelings about ICE one way or another. They might I think that's what most Americans are paying attention to.
I just always want to I always want to remind everybody here cuz even though I am very passionate about international politics and everybody else in this chat is, there's a lot of us that just are not paying They're worried about the gas prices. They're worried about the housing market. That's what they're That's what they're thinking about.
Okay, Mrs. Miaowsky.
Hi. Okay, first of all, about the drone situation, it's constantly developing thing. It's like all the time there are groups or people who suggest stuff. Maybe they're going to trials, maybe not. Maybe they work, maybe not. You can never know what their abilities are. It's like constantly moving in Israel specifically. So, you can have a drone that you know how it works, but it mixed with some, I don't know, software. Another thing I wanted to say and I forgot.
So, never mind.
Good to see you, baby.
Okay, finally we have Ali.
Thank you for pushing back on the drone idea. It's always good to hear like that kind of thing. So, I appreciate that.
We did see it actually used in Iran about a month ago when the uh Crown Prince gave the call to come out for two of our national holidays to come out and celebrate at the cemeteries and around our homes.
The IRGC Basij came out to try and suppress them again and there were videos with a ton of people like in crowds and everything and then you [snorts] hear the sound of drones like super loud incoming and the Basijis like running away.
So, they did use those in that scenario where like the people are pretty much directly next to these targets that you want to do.
And I imagine that they even are improving upon those techniques from then till now. But also in January 8th and 9th, some of those videos were AI. Okay, yeah, that could be true. But I do remember that they did state that there were drones in the area at the time.
And sorry, going back to January 8th and 9th.
We saw a lot of those people with the mounted machine guns and then those snipers on the roof. Those will be super easy targets because the drones will have no difficulty taking those out. But I think what Ian was referring to were people on the ground who are not essentially wearing like a sort of uniform that draws them apart from the regular Iranian people.
And what ends up happening is just on a street level, you can't really fire like an AK into a crowd of people when you're like 5 ft away from them and expect not to be like taken over. So, what they do is they'll have a good like 100 ft, maybe 40-50 m in between them and there's like a line of these Basijis lined up on the street and just shooting down. That's more of the scenario that stops the Iranian people from surging forward because we all know that there's going to be casualties unfortunately no matter what. So, instead of going to those like lone people in the crowd shooting at others, you're going to be the one to you're going to be wanting to target those line of those police or suppressing forces that are stopping the mass of people surging forward and and the drone strikes aren't meant to kill every single Basij unit. They're just meant to make it so that the Iranian people can advance and we will have casualties no matter what happens.
So, you're saying they're used just to disrupt their formation basically.
Yeah, and you can disrupt them kinetically by blowing them up. You can also disrupt them by making them think, "Hey, we've already been in war for 2 months and now we're getting bombed again and I'm just sick and tired. I haven't been getting paid. I None of this has been out. It's not worth it anyway."
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