Exit Polls Predict Massive Victory For TVK In Tamil Nadu And Tight Contest In Kerala | India Today

Añadido: 2026-05-01

[00:00:00]That's going to be the big takeaway, then. If the result >> I look at the difference. I think when we were doing poll of polls, we were looking at all of those numbers and seeing the varied difference. And clearly, the way TVK one side is 98 to 120, the other goes up to three to six. But then, if it is about change, then change is always decisive.

[00:00:19]>> I agree. You can never You can never quantify. And then, you know, that's why you can never quantify. And that's why, Preity, what Kanshiram said doesn't apply in the context of >> But Maria, my thing is my my point is not that. My point is I understand if there's change. How is it that Pradeep is picking up such a massive change and somebody is picking up >> Because it's very difficult, you know.

[00:00:36]Because when somebody is picking up AIADMK >> No, no, but that's because they have sample size. We as journalists go and speak to at best 50 to 100 people.

[00:00:44]>> No, I'm just saying there are 10 There are 10 right now. There are about 10 uh exit polls, and all of them have very different predictions. Methodology, Preity. Exactly. I think it's also because any data you had before doesn't count.

[00:00:57]Any support base that you had before doesn't count. Any vote bank that you had before doesn't count.

[00:01:01]>> the direction right. Mostly, you have seen in the past, even when there is a new player, you get the direction right.

[00:01:05]>> I think the problem with Tamil Nadu is it's also so vast and so varied region-wise, state-wise, so many factors.

[00:01:13]>> We've got Muralidharan and Shivalingam with us.

[00:01:14]>> Yes, perhaps we can take that question to him. Uh Pradeep Gupta, today, after 24 hours almost after making that prediction, which has completely uh which is being seen and debated and discussed discussed everywhere, not just Tamil Nadu, across the country is reiterating that he's sticking by it and he's convinced that that is going to be the number. What is the mood in uh TVK right now?

[00:01:42]How confident are you that it's going to be upwards of 120?

[00:01:45]Yeah, that's for you, Muralidharan. Yes.

[00:01:48]Okay. Uh the only fear I think the party has is that uh the minutes should not get votes.

[00:01:54]So, there are really be uh you suspect >> going to happen, then?

[00:01:59]It might happen because the numbers which are given by Mr. Gupta is like, you know, the couple of people are not sleep slept last night, you know, including probably Mr. Stalin. And uh so, seeing those figures, so there is always a threat. And we know how uh how much uh muscle power when it comes to money these parties have. So, I think that's that's a different fear. No, but that's that's that's a test to for Vijay. Mr. Ramakrishnan Rajagopal, retired IAS officer, spokesperson of the Tamil Nadu BJP is also with us. Mr. Rajagopal, the worst possible news of the Axis My India exit poll is for the NDA, for the AIADMK plus their allies in Tamil Nadu. You've been pushed to number three position, and distance numbers. Yeah, poor number three.

[00:02:48]Well, um I don't think it's um the right forecast uh because um A, I don't think uh they have covered uh Tamil Nadu extensively.

[00:03:00]And uh I was just listening to Mr. Gupta, and he talked about two uh ladies in Chennai responding to his call and telling him as to why they voted for the TVK.

[00:03:12]Uh it looks like it's quite superficial in the sense, you know, somebody says my daughter asked me to vote. And in case Chennai doesn't represent Tamil Nadu.

[00:03:21]In Chennai, I do agree that Vijay has a much better following, a much bigger following than the rest of the state.

[00:03:27]So, it's quite possible that Vijay will uh score quite a few seats in Chennai.

[00:03:33]But it's doubtful that Vijay will be able to repeat that performance in the uh rest of the state, particularly in the areas where the hold of uh the ADMK and also the DMK is reasonably strong.

[00:03:45]You know what what seems to be worrying is that That that the collapse of AIADMK is coming at the cost of uh you know, his growth is at the cost of your collapse. But the entire anti-incumbency is also moving away from AIADMK towards a new player. And the people of Tamil Nadu are looking at this Vijay magic. Would you then accept that the leadership is an issue here?

[00:04:17]The AIADMK leadership is an issue which doesn't really inspire the youth or even the women to give them a chance. Uh Uh well, if you ask me as to whether the ADMK could have done it better, uh I would definitely say yes. Uh the ADMK could have thought of a much better strategy. They could have uh invoked the names of MGR and Jayalalithaa a little more. Uh they could have asked for votes in the name of these two leaders rather than uh you know, asking for votes in the name of the current leaders alone.

[00:04:53]But the hold that the ADMK still has Right before, you know, you do understand the optics of of what you're saying. Because you're practically suggesting that the AIADMK could have fought the election >> are over.

[00:05:07]No, the elections are over. But I mean, I'm not saying that things are perfect.

[00:05:11]You see, the elections are over, people have voted. But I think I'd still give the ADMK a very good chance of winning the election.

[00:05:19]>> Mr. Ramakrishnan, would you would you weigh in on the possibility tomorrow if there is uh you know, a number that uh Vijay and TVK actually reach, and they require the support of the AIADMK, and the AIADMK actually dumping you and going with Vijay? Do you see that as a possibility?

[00:05:37]No, not [clears throat] at all. I don't think that is going to happen at all. Uh if at all, I mean, what you're saying is going to come true. I don't think it's going to come true at all.

[00:05:46]But I mean, it's quite superficial the way Mr. Gupta has done it. I don't believe that uh the TVK is anywhere close to uh you know, winning the elections, nowhere close to even 50. So, uh if at all TVK is in a position to form the government, which is just hypothetical.

[00:06:04]And if they do make a request, well, I think it can be considered at that stage. But there's no question of any break in the ADMK-BJP alliance. That's going to stay till the 2029 elections, and there's no doubt about that. Okay.

[00:06:16]Mr. Muralidharan, uh I'll bring you in also on this. I think what people are finding very hard to believe when we look at the numbers is that a 35% vote share converts to about 98 to 120 seats for Vijay, for TVK. From the get-go, the biggest challenge for Vijay that everyone spoke about was seats conversion. What has you convinced that not just these numbers, beyond this also, according to the TVK, could hold?

[00:06:41]See, the people of Tamil Nadu are definitely looking for a change.

[00:06:44]And they were, as Mr. Gupta said when he spoke to that lady in Tamil Nadu, who was influenced by her daughter, there are many cases like that. Thousands of cases like that where the grandmother says, "My granddaughter asked me to vote for Vijay, so I voted." So, it may not be the I mean, the I mean, the most important thing, but these are important. So, that's how I think you talk to 10 people, and six of them telling you, "Yes, we voted for TVK."

[00:07:11]And how can you, you know, brush that aside? I think Mr. Gupta's gone based on his gut feeling. Even though the sample sizes are small, I think he's gone on gut feeling by talking to these people.

[00:07:23]Okay. A. Saravanan of the DMK also joins us. Mr. Saravanan Yes. Are you I I Is the DMK more confident today after the pollster's >> Are [laughter] you feeling better today?

[00:07:37]>> us after trolling us all of last evening Yes, are you feeling better today?

[00:07:42]>> I'm watching all of you and enjoying the fun. Because you are discussing a very hypothetical situation, which isn't going to happen. Humorous.

[00:07:52]What? Yeah, yeah. Humorous, Mr. Saravanan, if that is what you were thinking it is.

[00:07:56]>> [laughter] >> Yeah, yeah. See, uh yesterday Mr. uh I think I wasn't watching that, but it was there all on the Twitter that uh he said they it will go to 70 seats. It may go to 70 seats. No, no, he's I'll I'll tell you what, Mr. Saravanan, since you're mentioning that, and I know there's been a whole discourse of it on social media.

[00:08:16]>> yes, yes. I will uh you know, tell you that about 10 minutes ago Mr. Pradeep Gupta was with us. I asked that question to him. So, you heard it. You heard his answer, then.

[00:08:24]>> I'll come to it. I'll come to it. See, that's what. When a pollster, on questioning by Preity, Preity just used that aggressive tone, and Mr. Pradeep Gupta dropped by 30 seats.

[00:08:34]If Preity had still more aggressive, then it would have gone to 50. No, no, come on, sir. You said the same thing yesterday. Just a moment, Akshita.

[00:08:42]Just a moment. If Maria too had joined, he would have gone to 30.

[00:08:46]Now you're Now again, you You you have changed track. And Akshita, if you you have changed track >> sir. You had your full of trolling us last evening. I hope that's done.

[00:08:57]OKAY, NOW SO TELL ME, SIR, WHAT explains warning or caution to the party cadres that they should not be complacent, that over the next few hours they should be particularly careful about monitoring the control rooms? Yeah, that is because uh what has happened elsewhere.

[00:09:16]Because there were unverified rumors and allegations in all the other poll-bound states that the BJP uh did whatever it did.

[00:09:23]So, it's a usual caution. It has got nothing to do with uh the See, we we are confident that in the boxes in the boxes >> your party has accused >> Just a moment.

[00:09:34]Just a moment. In the boxes, the votes are there which will propel us to our stupendous victory. That is why we are saying, "Please have a watch." It's It's just a usual caution.

[00:09:44]>> you're saying if TVK actually gets the numbers that have been predicted by Pradeep Gupta, then it's the BJP who has helped TVK do it. Is that what the allegation is?

[00:09:55]>> No, no, no, no, no, no. Don't don't put words into my mouth. I am saying you asked me why the CM has said the please watch the control room. I said that is because the usual thing because it has got our precious votes that will make us come to power the next time. There is a usual routine uh thing.

[00:10:11]>> just enough time for Pulla Rao who's a political analyst and a close watcher of politics in Tamil Nadu. Mr. Pulla Rao, Pradeep Gupta believes is convinced that these numbers will hold. And he also says that because of victory is you know number is plus minus 2%. So, it could go up to even 37% of votes for actor Vijay, which would mean that the numbers will go down from the DMK. And in that case, his number seats could go upwards of 120.

[00:10:46]Well, you see Pradeep Gupta is now [clears throat] the most famous man in Tamil Nadu. I can assure you or in the south [laughter] also.

[00:10:53]I agree.

[00:10:55]What? What three of you can't say >> along with Akshita. Oh, please let me finish, please. They are competing. A Times Now is competing with Akshita.

[00:11:04]No, no, Mr. Pulla Rao, go ahead.

[00:11:06]Mr. Subramanian Swamy keeps pulling my leg. Mr. Pulla Rao, go ahead.

[00:11:10]If if you know what three of you can't say, I'll say. Either he's going to be very famous or he's going to be infamous because now it's all about his prediction which is you know taken My friends will agree. This is a major point of discussion. He has a serious reputation. And definitely that reputation you know, he has to stand by.

[00:11:29]And we cannot My friend, you know, any survey a very known personality makes, we have to take serious. Whether it's going to pan out, whether it's not going to be there, No, I agree. And my apologies, Mr. Pulla Rao, for stepping in, but there's big breaking news coming in. Today's Chanakya has released their numbers. And I'm going to first focus on Kerala where interestingly Today's Chanakya is suggesting it's going to be [music] a tight fight. Here's what the numbers look like. According to Today's Chanakya, UDF could be at 69, the LDF at 64. Just imagine that. And they've given a margin of about nine plus minus give or take for both UDF and LDF. The NDA at seven seats. I mean, this is And the vote share according to Today's Chanakya is around 40% for the UDF and LDF at 38%. That's what Today's Chanakya is projecting. And others at 2%. BJP plus is at 20%.

[00:12:23]>> 20%? [music] Yes. So, UDF at 40%, LDF at 38%. And that's where I think So, there's a 2% gap between the And lastly, of course, the margin of victory plus minus 3%.

[00:12:35]>> Yeah, if you actually look at an Axis My India, it was 44% versus 39%.

[00:12:40]>> most of the pollsters have given a decisive victory for UDF barring Today's Chanakya which is saying 69 64. Just a gap of three seats.

[00:12:49]>> Okay, so we're going to discuss Yeah, we're going to we're going to quickly get into the numbers, deep dive into the numbers that have been put forth by yet another pollster which only quells the pitch of the numbers Now, Kerala the Congress in Kerala now suddenly Kerala is looking tight. Not not good news at least with this particular number coming in for the Congress. Not good news. But a quick break, we're back with the latest all the numbers filtering in. We leave you with the latest numbers that have come in from Chanakya. And the numbers seem to suggest that it is a much tighter fight as been projected by other pollsters. Leave you with these numbers. Stay with us. Maria, Akshita, and I are back shortly.