The Models Failed!

[00:00:00]What you looking at in this image, guys, is from No Win School and it's the atmospheric telemetry loop. It's showing a severe moisture blockage all along the Colorado River Basin.

[00:00:13]The We're still getting some mainstream updates, guys, about monsoon season coming in and it leaving some of the Colorado River problems and possibly snowfall. This is not showing any of that and we've seen where when you get a record El Niño or C1, very strong, guys, a lot of times it can last for 12 to 18 months in the same position. And so, what does that mean? If it remains dry like this, there will be no winter snowfall. Now, it's completely short-circuiting uh the stream flow before a single drop is reaching any of the area. Not Lake Powell, not Flaming Gorge, not Lake Mead. We're going to look at a few of the raw physics. I'm not going to draw it out long today. I just want to make sure you're updated. Now, again, what This is No Win School. It's very important because it does rely on NASA and other satellite images to get all of this data together and there's a chance that we may lose that source before too long. We've seen it happen before.

[00:01:21]And we're going to look at the 24-month uh Bureau of Reclamation models and I'll show you where they've all failed and this is becoming critical.

[00:01:31]And we're going to look at the three main reservoirs. There's different ones in between, different river tributaries, things like that, but we're going to look at Mead, Powell, and upstream into um Flaming Gorge, guys. This is Lake Mead. And this is as of the 8:00 to 9:00 update this morning and it updates itself every hour. The other models show the day before. I like to go to this one because we're getting pretty current information.

[00:01:56]And it started out with a pretty good bit of uh release in cubic feet per second this morning, 14.8.

[00:02:02]And now they dropped it down to 1.8. And because they've released enough water out to get the hydro electricity downstream that they need for the demand for Phoenix and that entire area.

[00:02:17]Now, we started watching this a few weeks back and we said that when we got to 1050, we would start into some of the tier two watches.

[00:02:26]When we got to 1035, that would change.

[00:02:28]So, guys, we are what, 11 ft from that now? Here's your current situation. Lake the eighth acre feet storage of Mead is holding pretty steady.

[00:02:39]Now, they're getting this report doesn't show input, just the output. But we're going to look at the reports that do show what's coming in to all three of those dams. And we're looking at guys, 2.3 to 2.6 feet of drop per day, and with the current evaporation. And if you remember when we started this particular series watching the Colorado River Basin, the inflows from Lake Powell above Lake Mead had been limited by the Bureau of Reclamation to about 7,000 cubic feet a second. We saw that elevate a few weeks ago to 8,000, and then now we're at 9,236.

[00:03:21]It's output is semi-steady, but it was putting out 13 287.

[00:03:27]And we've seen some increases through the days, 15,000, 16,000. And the currently or yesterday it was 12,000 407 cubic feet outflow. Averaging, again, it's important to so you can do the math.

[00:03:43]9,000 inflow, outflow 14,000. So, roughly we got a 5,000 cubic feet per second deficit between what's coming in and what's going out, right? That's going to add up. Now, as long as Lake Powell from above can handle the 9124, this will be a slow drawdown. It still looks like and very conservatively by the end of July that we're going to be in 1035 area and we'll lose about 70% of down flow water and power. So, it they just have to cut back to save some of the infrastructure inside of Lake Powell or excuse me, Lake Mead at Hoover Dam or either lose it completely to destruction. Now, what Mead has relied on and all the reservoirs basically going to Colorado River is high mountain snowfall, excuse me, snowmelt during the spring and summer. And you can see starting a year ago here that it was coming off of that hill just like this hill here where they got the little bit of snowmelt and some rain flow from upstream during the months last year. It was still a light snowmelt. Right now, there are no There's no snow on the 14,000-ft peaks.

[00:04:59]Today, we are at Well, yesterday we're 1046.25.

[00:05:04]Now, there's going to be no uphill climb because they're admitting through the Bureau of Reclamation and other weather channels that the zero snowfall in the Colorado's Southern Colorado's especially is gone and there's no fuel in the tank.

[00:05:21]That's a critical level. We have to pay attention to it.

[00:05:25]So, let's travel back up the Colorado 260 mi going through the Grand Canyon and that super evaporation rate that occurs there.

[00:05:34]Now, the Lake Powell water base is showing that they had a 0.8-ft drop in elevation yesterday. Not that much, you think, but they're still getting a lot of feed from upstream. In other words, Flaming Gorge and you got the Green River and was it Virgin River, few others up in that area. But their outflow is still 2,200 cubic feet higher than their inflow. And this changes pretty rapidly sometimes. Now, these numbers in red are very telling in themselves. Snowpack this year 3.5% and that is you're losing 76% of the total precipitation.

[00:06:15]That's why that line is not going to come back up. River flows are down you got 13.5% inflows for the year 45. So, again, the Colorado River is going back to its normal state. Let's look at Flaming Gorge. Let's move upstream again. Flaming Gorge, this are these are the three main critical, we'll call them bathtubs or whatever you want to call them. But if you were to put a graph together, Flaming Gorge would be at a higher elevation than Powell and Powell is a higher elevation than Mead and everything still goes downhill from there, right? So, Flaming Gorge is being pretty much sacrificed for Powell.

[00:06:59]Powell has increased from 7,000 cubic feet a second to 9,200, right? So, they've had to increase beyond the Bureau of Reclamation uh their recommendations uh just a month or so ago. So, they're seeing the critical points change just a little bit, but the models are way, way off from what the If you read the 24-month uh database set up by the Bureau of Reclamation's on their timelines, they're over a year off and they're starting to admit it. Don't want to panic anybody, but again, it's not about that. Just be aware of your situation.

[00:07:37]That's what it's about. But now, this number here, 22 cubic feet a second, is very alarming except one thing about it. This number can be off. And they they will change it maybe the next day. I've seen it happen before. And what we'll see on the average if come [snorts] back tomorrow, well, these numbers will be updated because for some reason it it glitches the inflow rate a lot at Flaming Gorge.

[00:08:02]Just at the beginning of this week, I saw two days with zero inflow. And so that was a glitch and they corrected it.

[00:08:11]And so but anyway, the main point is Flaming Gorge is being uh dropped pretty quick.

[00:08:19]And the numbers match pretty much with Powell at 3.5% of the snowpack. Again, that curve coming back up is not happening. That happened last year at this time. We were seeing it much more elevated and it was coming down off of a hill. There is nothing happening like that now. It was less than 76% of precipitation.

[00:08:40]So again, the you're kind of at the top of the stream here.

[00:08:45]So when this gets critical, then everything changes.

[00:08:50]What I see happening possibly is they will initially start again, they will limit the outflow to Flaming Gorge to save it. They will limit the outflow to Powell to save it.

[00:09:02]But when it gets down to the nitty-gritty, they possibly meaning the federal government, the Bureau of Reclamation, or whoever steps in because at that point, it gets to a higher level than even the Bureau of Reclamation to have a federal uh high rank step in and start controlling the entire thing. But what we'll see then is they decide, "Well, we there's not much we can do. There's no snowfall coming. Uh we really out possibly out-built the desert. And now we got to face the consequences. So they may end up saving me this we talked about and again when at first I'm seeing Flaming Gorge shut down and it's a marked elevation than Powell but Mead will be held up as long as possible as long as they will they will cut the switches back on the Flaming Gorge to feed Powell. Now Flaming Gorge will possibly be the first casualty.

[00:10:02]But it looks like with them increasing from 7,000 cubic feet per second to 9,200 from Powell to Mead that there's realizing that it's not working the way they planned, okay?

[00:10:15]Now let's look at the critical numbers of each three dams and I won't hold you much longer than that. Now right now the numbers going back to yesterday don't look that bad at Flaming Gorge. Now if we look at it historically you may see a different picture. But they're showing a point one. Now we're using a point two six at Mead because of evaporation. And if you added that uh to uh Flaming Gorge it wouldn't be as high because it's higher elevations cooler temperatures. But they're saying point one so you got 10 days you got a foot drop every 10 days, right? And again this number right here will more than likely change. If not it would be a scary number. But I think it was these two right here the 373s that were double zeros when they first popped up and I said wait wait a minute.

[00:11:05]Something can't can't have dropped that much at Flaming Gorge that quickly. But it's still getting some snow melt and you got a couple of rivers above it.

[00:11:15]1590s outflow 14 days ago it was 1162.

[00:11:21]So the they've increased the outflow in the and look at some of these days 4,513 so they're averaging listen 578.4 in inflow cubic feet per second over 14 days, but look at the outflow. So, four time or yeah, four times the outflow compared to the inflow. Those numbers will not hold up that long. We're right on that downhill slide. Again, it's time to pay very close attention.

[00:11:52]And we've got a current water elevation at Flaming Gorge is 6,016. Now, that's not the depth. That's it again, the elevation. And it's 23 ft below full pool. The the live storage capacity is 75 to 70 So, remember 60 60. But, here's what the Bureau of Reclamation is saying now.

[00:12:13]Critical operation thresholds at Flaming Gorge begin when the water level drops below 6 15. So, we're foot above that.

[00:12:23]With severe infrastructure, generation, and environmental failure points occurring down to 5,740 ft. Because the Bureau frequently triggers massive emergency water drawdowns from Flaming Gorge to prop up Lake Powell downstream, understanding these exact elevation tiers is cru- crucial. It is especially for anyone along the Colorado River, especially from Flaming Gorge down and all the way to the Imperial Valley in Mexico, basically.

[00:12:52]And does anybody wants to screenshot any of this or use a whole video, I don't care about it because it the message is more way more important than anything else.

[00:13:02]And you got to the maximum pool at Flaming Gorge or staying there. We're going to move downstream, but 60 40 that's full pool. Maximum normal operating capacity.

[00:13:12]60 15 to 60 10. So, there's a 5-ft drop and we're just a foot away from this number.

[00:13:20]Marina infrastructure fails. Again, that's the lifeblood of that entire area is that lake.

[00:13:26]Local marinas lose access to drinking water as floating supply pumps go dry at 6,010.

[00:13:33]Major boat ramps begin hitting their physical bottoms, making recreation impossible for larger vessels. And guess what I've seen just recently is upstream from Lake Powell where it's already dropped enough to where you you're basically seeing the river now.

[00:13:49]They are cutting in boat uh launches down through the the clear in kind of at an angle to where you can get back to the river now. So, the you're not going to lose total boat launch capabilities, but you'll be launching back into the actual Colorado River.

[00:14:06]Now, that I don't know how that will work out through all of the areas, but I I just saw a video on that and they did it in a pretty good bit of time and they're basically trying to save the raft uh rafting industry, things like that.

[00:14:20]There's a lot of rafters that use that river. So, again, 615 to 610 is if starts affecting the local recreation, it becomes critical. 5871 enacted con- uh conservation pool, hydropower generation threat. Now, this is where the battles are going to start because water's a necessity, but when you're going to lose your power too, then people you will start to see the different states in major lawsuits. But, when the feds step all the way through it, they can technically bypass all the courts if it's an emergency. The water levels drop below the minimum pool required for stable efficient operation of the Flaming Gorge power plant turbines. Dead pool is 5740, total system failure.

[00:15:07]Water can no longer gravity flow out downstream to Powell. Says the reservoir effectively becomes a stagnant pool, completely severing downstream supply to the Green and Colorado Rivers.

[00:15:20]Now, Lake Powell is currently at 3,527 ft, roughly 23% of its full capacity.

[00:15:28]You've got uh 37,000 full pool. 3,525 is a target buffer zone. And again, we're at 352 7.

[00:15:40]2 ft, we start getting into a buffer zone. This protection line is a critical minimum target water managers aim to stay above. Dropping past this triggers emergency water drops from upstream reservoirs like Flaming Gorge. Again, how far are we away?

[00:15:57]2 ft.

[00:15:59]Yeah, you drop from there to 3490, and you got hydropower generation failure. It's called minimal power pool.

[00:16:06]Water drops below the intake penstocks from Glen Canyon Dam generators. Grid stability collapses for millions of people across the Southwest. At 3370, you got dead pool.

[00:16:19]Total system failure, water falls below the lower river outlet. Water can no longer gravity drain downstream through the dam, entirely shutting off the supply to Lake Mead.

[00:16:32]Now, let's take a look at Mead going downstream, guys.

[00:16:36]1,229 ft is full pool. That's maximum normal operating capacity. 1075 is level one, we're blown past that. 1050, level two shortage, we're blown past that.

[00:16:51]Guys, then at just over two or 1046, which we're at now, we've dropped 4 ft very quickly since the 1050 mark. At 1035, that's what we're seeing coming up in late July, Hoover Dam failure begins. Hydropower generating capacity drops to 70%. 950 ft is total hydropower shutoff. 895 is dead pool. So again, I just wanted to show you the metrics. Looking at the three bathtubs stacked coming down that hill and show you where we're at. Again, the numbers are not matching up. The models are not accurate anymore, and I think we'll more than likely will start getting updates from the Bureau of Reclamation and as as soon as we start to see the shutdowns from the two uh upstream dams, Flaming Gorge, Powell, we're going to start to see the feds move in and tighten things up just a little bit. We're watching it, guys. I didn't mean to get too technical here, but sometimes you got to show a few numbers.

[00:17:56]We're watching it. You watch it. It's a heads-up. Be safe.