Lecture 11

Añadido: 2026-05-12

[00:00:19]Good morning ladies and gentlemen. In the previous lecture, we discussed the worked out examples of the random control trials and I am sure that it would have cleared your concept about that the control the the the in the it must have cleared your concept for the RCTs And the today's lecture we move to a different subject that is the theories in scientific research.

[00:01:07]We listen to and we go to we read through the theories.

[00:01:15]However, we are unable to realize that how these theories how evolve through the through the regress parameters.

[00:01:32]The conclusions that are arrived by various researchers.

[00:01:44]They are check again again verified again and again and before it becomes a generalized theory it has to go through various parameters and these parameters have to be found in those theories in those conclusions then they become theories.

[00:02:16]So today in this lecture we are going to discuss the various aspects and various requirements that the conclusion will be fulfilling the qualifications of theories.

[00:02:46]So today's in this lecture we will concentrate on theories in the scientific research.

[00:02:57]So as we know and aware that the theories are explanation of a natural or social behavior a phenomenon the Newton's law it is an explanation of the natural phenomenon. RCD's law. It is an explanation of a natural phenomena.

[00:03:28]The consumer behavior theory it is a an explanation of the social behavior.

[00:03:38]How people's consumption depends upon their income and how when the income increases their consumption increases but not at the same rate because then they start investing and saving.

[00:03:55]So these theories which I gave you example either they are natural explanators of the natural phenomena or they are explanators of the social phenomena.

[00:04:13]So strictly speaking a scientific theory is a system of constructs concepts and propositions result the relationships between those constructs.

[00:04:32]So if it is a consumer theory it is consumption theory it is a relation between income and consumption.

[00:04:43]So income and consumption are concepts and the proposition is a relation between them.

[00:04:57]So we can have any kind of example.

[00:05:04]the relation between the speed and velocity.

[00:05:13]These both are concepts constructs and there is and the relation between the speed and velocity.

[00:05:25]It explains the relationship between those constructs that is speed and velocity.

[00:05:35]So the theory does collectively present a logical systematic and coherent explanation of a phenomenon.

[00:05:48]If the theory does not present a logical, systematic and coherent explanation of a phenomenon, then we can see the fallacy in the theory.

[00:06:09]And this is why we are today we are discussing this in this lecture.

[00:06:17]Theories explain why things happen rather than just describe or predict.

[00:06:26]So theories are more than description.

[00:06:31]They are more than prediction.

[00:06:36]Why? Because they explain why things happen.

[00:06:44]Mhm.

[00:06:47]Why the fruits from the trees fall down only? They do not go up.

[00:07:03]This is explained by the gravitational theory.

[00:07:08]Why? With the increase in income, the consumption also increases but not at the same rate.

[00:07:17]This is this explains why things happen.

[00:07:21]They explain in detail.

[00:07:24]So this is why explanations require causation or understanding of cause and effect relationship.

[00:07:34]These theoretical explanations have to explain the causes of the phenomenon and make understand about the cause and effect relationship of that phenomenon.

[00:07:54]If suppose the farmers are committing suicides the it's not only to describe or predict but the causes have to be explained.

[00:08:12]If the divorce rates are increasing in the society, theory has to explain the causes, not just describe it or predict it. If the the joint families are getting divided into nuclear families.

[00:08:42]The theory has to explain the causes.

[00:08:47]So we we shall be discussing how a causation is established.

[00:08:59]So theory the the causation requires three conditions to be established which we come to discuss now.

[00:09:12]Number one is the correlation between two constructs.

[00:09:20]What is the relation between two two constructs? Or is there no relation?

[00:09:27]Or with the increase in one increase the other or with the increase in in increase in one decreases the other in the in this course we will be studying also how what is correlation in statistical terms and how it is calculated.

[00:09:49]But here in for the theory the correlation between two constructs must be there to establish the causation.

[00:10:04]Secondly, the cause must preede the effect in time. First the cause has to happen and then the effect after some time the effect will take place. Effect is not going to take place in anticipation of the cause. It's not that effect has taken place and the cause will be coming later. No, first the cause comes and then the effect takes place. First the income increases and then the consumption increases. So income is a cause and the consumption is effect. So the cause has to preede the effect in time. It is also called the temporal precedence.

[00:10:59]And third C it is the rejection of null or alternative hypothesis through testing.

[00:11:08]We test, we set up the hypothesis, we set up the null and alter alternative hypothesis and then we test it. As we know that hypothesis is set up to test either to reject or to accept. So the establishment of causation requires three conditions.

[00:11:36]A correlation between the two constructs. B the cause must preede the effect in time that is temporal precedence. And third rejection of null alternative hypothesis through testing.

[00:11:57]Then we must know that the scientific theories are different from theological, philosophical or other explanation in that theories can be empirically tested using scientific methods. The theological theories, the philos philosophical theories, they cannot be tested empirically.

[00:12:24]But the scientific theories have to be tested empirically of course using the scientific methods.

[00:12:36]That is the difference between the theological philosophical and the scientific theories.

[00:12:44]The explanations can be ideographic or numathetic.

[00:12:50]The ideioraphic explanations are those that explain a single situation or a in ideic detail.

[00:13:03]The ideioraphic approach it focuses on understanding the unique characteristics and experiences of an individual often through in-depth case studies and qualitative methods.

[00:13:22]The ideiosyncratic details refer to peculiar, unique or unus un unusual characteristics that are specific to an individual group or thing.

[00:13:40]The ideic details refer to peculiar, unique or unusual characteristics that are specific to an individual group or thing. These details are often distinctive and may not be typical or shared by others.

[00:13:58]They can be related to habits, behaviors, features or even reactions to certain stimuli.

[00:14:04]For example, you did poorly in an examination because you forgot that you had an examination on that day. You arrived late or to the examination due to a traffic jam. You panicked midway through the examination.

[00:14:22]You had to work late the previous evening and could not study for the examination.

[00:14:31]Your dog ate your textbook.

[00:14:35]So these explanations may be detailed, accurate and valid but they may not apply to other similar situations even involving the same person and hence they are not generalizable.

[00:14:57]So we have seen the idiosyncratic details H and then we come to the nomtic explanations.

[00:15:09]As far as the nomtic explanations are concerned, it seeks to explain a class of situations or events rather than a specific situation or event.

[00:15:25]The nomatthetic approach in research focuses on establishing general laws or principles that apply to a large group of people.

[00:15:37]It aims to identify commonalities and make broad generalizations about human behavior rather than focusing on individual differences.

[00:15:49]This approach is often contrasted with the ideographic approach which emphasizes the study of individual cases.

[00:16:00]For example, students who do poorly in examination do so because they did not spend adequate time preparing for examination or that they suffer from nervousness, attention deficit or some other medical disorder.

[00:16:21]Because nomatic explanations are designed to be generalizable across situations, events or people.

[00:16:32]They tend to be less precise, less complete and less detailed.

[00:16:37]Theories are also intend to intended to serve as generalized explanations of patterns of events, behaviors or phenomena.

[00:16:47]So theoretical explanations are generally nomatic in nature.

[00:16:53]Theories is not data, facts, typologies, taxonomies or empirical findings.

[00:17:03]A collection of facts is not a theory.

[00:17:09]As the pile of a stones is not a house, we must remember that we may have lot of facts, lot lot of informations, lot of data about a phenomena.

[00:17:31]But these cannot become a theory. For theory there are other requirements that we are discussing.

[00:17:43]Likewise again a collection of constructs is not a theory because theory must go well beyond constructs to include propositions, explanations and boundary conditions.

[00:17:58]So here came the requirements for a theory.

[00:18:05]Neither the collection of facts nor the collection of constructs they cannot be theory because theory must go well beyond constructs facts and constructs to include what it has to include. It has to include propositions, explanations, and boundary conditions.

[00:18:32]Data, facts, and findings operate at the empirical or observation level while theories operate at a conceptual level and are based on logic rather than observations.

[00:18:51]Now we discuss the building blocks of a theory.

[00:18:57]There are four building blocks of a theory.

[00:19:03]Constructs, proposition, logic and boundary conditions, conditions, assumptions.

[00:19:12]So the these building blocks we are going to be discussed now.

[00:19:22]First is the constructs.

[00:19:26]Constructs capture the what of theories that is what concepts are important for exploring a explaining a phenomena.

[00:19:40]Whereas propositions capture the how that is how are these concepts related to each other.

[00:19:50]Logic presents represent the why that is why are these concept related and boundary conditions assumptions examine who when and where that is under what conditions all these concepts and relationship work. So for a theory it has to reply what, how, why, who, when and where of a phenomena and as we observed that the these are distributed these these are distributed into the four building blocks.

[00:20:42]That is the construct which expla which should explain or capture what. Then propositions which would explain and capture how and logic which would present represent the why. That is why these are these concepts related.

[00:21:07]Boundary conditions would explain who, when and where, under what conditions or these concepts and relationship are going to work.

[00:21:18]Constructs are abstract concepts specified at a high level of abstraction that are chosen specifically to explain the phenomenon of interest.

[00:21:30]Whereas constructs may be unid-dimensional that is embody a single concept such as weight or age. Contract constructs may be multi-dimensional that is embody multiple underlying concepts such as personality or culture.

[00:21:50]While some constructs such as age, education and firm size are easy to understand.

[00:21:59]Others such as creativity, prejudice and organ organizational agility may be more complex.

[00:22:13]They are others such as trust, attitude and learning may represent temporal tendencies rather than steady states.

[00:22:23]Nevertheless, all constructs must have clear and ambiguous operational definition that should specify exactly how the construct will be measured and at what level of analysis whether individual, group or organization.

[00:22:45]Then comes the measurable representation of abstracts. Abstract constructs. These are called the variables. The abstract con constructs they are their measurable representations are called variables. For instance, intelligence quotient IQ score is a variable that is purported to measure an abstract construct called intelligence.

[00:23:19]So intelligence is an abstract conern con construct and its measurable representation is called variable that is intelligent intelligence quotient IQ score.

[00:23:38]The scientific research proceeds along two planes. A theoretical plane and an empirical plane. Constructs are conceptualized at a theoret at the theoretical plane.

[00:23:56]Whereas variables are optionalized and measured at the empirical or observational plane. So we have seen the distribution The the constructs constructs are conceptualized at the theoretical plane whereas variables they are measured at the empirical plane.

[00:24:23]Variables may be independent and dependent.

[00:24:28]The distinction between constructs and variables is shown in the figure below.

[00:24:36]See here the distinction between constructs and variables are is shown in the figure. So here we have the in the theoretical plane we have the construct a proposition then construct b these are the these are the constructs at the theoretical plane whereas when it comes to the empirical plane then we have the independent variable and the dependent variable. And we set up hypothesis to test the relation between the two, the independent variable, dependent variable and the independent variable.

[00:25:34]Next comes the second building block of the theory. The second building block of the theory is pre proposition.

[00:25:45]Proposition. What are the propositions?

[00:25:48]Propositions are supposed to be associations postulated between constructs based on deductive logic.

[00:26:01]So the postulation of relation between speed and velocity. The postulation of relation between income and consumption.

[00:26:12]The postulation of relation between qualification salary.

[00:26:18]These are the examples. So propositions are associations postulated between constructs based on the deductive logic.

[00:26:31]And these propositions are stated in declarative form and should ideally indicate a cause effect relationship.

[00:26:42]That is if X occurs then Y will follow.

[00:26:48]It should be noted that propositions may be conjectural but must be testable and should be rejected if not supported by empirical observations. The propositions have to be testable just to be tested either to be rejected if the empirical observations do not support or to be accepted if the empirical observation support.

[00:27:21]However, like constructs, propositions are also stated at the theoretical level and they can only be tested by examining the corresponding relationship between measurable measurable variables of variables of those constructs. So those the measurable var variables of those constructs have to be tested and examined for the relationship between them.

[00:27:52]The empirical formulation of propositions stated as relationship between variables is called hypothesis.

[00:28:02]We have studied hypothesis in various books and lectures. So the the empirical formulation of the proposition is stated as relationship between variables is called hypothesis.

[00:28:20]And this is why the experts say that for a hypothesis.

[00:28:26]Hypothesis there has to be one dependent variable and at least one independent variable.

[00:28:36]So the then only the hypothesis can be set up without the independent variable or without the dependent variable the hypothesis cannot be con cannot be constructed. So for constructing hypothesis it is necessary to have both independent and the dependent variables.

[00:29:06]The third building block of the theory is the logic that provides the basis for justifying the propositions as postulated.

[00:29:22]What is that the third building block?

[00:29:24]It is the logic that provides the basic for justifying the propositions as postulated. Logic acts like glue that connects the theoretical constructs and provides meaning and relevance to the relationships between those constructs.

[00:29:45]Logic also provides the explanation that lies at the core of a theory.

[00:29:54]Without logic the propositions would remain ad hoc, arbitrary and meaningless.

[00:30:03]So it cannot be tied into a cohesive system of propositions.

[00:30:08]That is heart of any theory.

[00:30:12]What is the heart of any theory? System of the cohesive system of propositions.

[00:30:19]Now comes the fourth building block of the theory that are the boundary conditions and assumptions.

[00:30:29]All theories are constrained by assumptions.

[00:30:35]The assumptions about value, time and space define where the theory can be applied and where it cannot be applied.

[00:30:48]For example, many economic theories assume that human beings are rational and imply utility maximization based on cost and benefit expectations as a way to understand human behavior. So the the first the assumption of the economic theories are that the human beings are rational and they have intention to maximize the profit and they have to to in fact imply such means that maximizes their utility based on cost and benefit expectations.

[00:31:33]If a man is say sent then and he does not have say anything to do with the worldly mundane affairs.

[00:31:51]So he is a not a normal person for the economist.

[00:32:01]He is out of the normal population.

[00:32:07]The normal population, the normal people would simply follow this assumption and they would be rational in their choices.

[00:32:23]choices that benefit them in the short run, in the long run. And they would employ such a combination of rational choices which utilizes their which maximizes their utility within given budget.

[00:32:51]So the assumptions about values, time and space define where the theory can be applied and where it cannot be applied.

[00:33:09]In contrast, political science theory assumed that people are more political than rational and try to position themselves in their professional or personal environment in a way that maximizes their power and control over others.

[00:33:31]So given the nature of their underlying assumptions, economic and political theories are not directly comparable.

[00:33:40]And researchers should not use economic theories if their objective is to understand power structure or its evolution in an organization.

[00:33:56]Likewise, theories must have implicit cultural assumptions. Easy whether they apply for example whether they apply to certain dualistic or collective cultures because there are many theories which are if we study anthropology then we find that there are many theories which are related to the tribal culture and not that cannot be that cannot be implemented or that cannot be cited to the to the population who is in the settled well settled in the cities of cities and villages they are the non-tribals or the tribals who have settled here.

[00:35:12]So the we find that there are anthropologic and similarly there are in other theories also. So anthropologic theories theories in anthropology they explain the various aspects of the tribal life. So they cannot be applied to the life non-tribal life in either urban areas or rural areas.

[00:35:44]Theories next theories have temporal assumption. temporal assumptions whether they apply to early stages or later stages of human behavior.

[00:35:58]Theories may have a special assump special assumptions that is whether they apply to certain localities but not to the others. Maybe those theories which are applicable in and they may not be applicable to say say Delhi.

[00:36:22]If a theory is to be properly used or tested all of its implicit assumptions that form the boundaries of the that theory must be properly understood.

[00:36:38]Attributes of a Now we come to discuss the attributes of a good theory. Theories are simplified and often partial explanations of complex social reality.

[00:36:55]As such, there can be good explanations or poor explanations.

[00:37:00]Consequently, there could be good theories or bad theories. The important criterion to value goodness of a theory are discussed below.

[00:37:11]Number one, logical consistency.

[00:37:14]It has to be checked whether the theoretical constructs, propositions, boundary conditions and assumptions are logically consistent with each other with each other.

[00:37:25]If some of these building blocks of a theory are inconsistent with e each other that is a theory assumes rationality but some constructs represent nonrational concepts then the theory would be termed as a poor theory.

[00:37:44]Then the explanatory power.

[00:37:47]How much does a given theory explain or predict a reality?

[00:37:52]Good theories obviously explain the target phenomenon better than rival theories as often measured by variance explained by R²AR value in regression equations.

[00:38:08]Third falsyability for theories to be valid they must be falsifiable.

[00:38:16]What is that? Falsifyability ensures that the theory is potentially disprovable.

[00:38:24]Theories cannot be theories unless they can be empirically tested. They have to be empirically testable. It refers to the capacity of a theory or hypothesis to be proved wrong through observation or experimentation.

[00:38:42]Taological Tautological statements such as a day with high temperatures is a hot day are not empirically testable because a hot day is defined and measured as a day with high temperatures and hence such statements cannot be viewed as a theoretical proposition.

[00:39:02]Fiability requires presence of rival explanations.

[00:39:07]It ensures that the constructs are adequately measurable and so forth.

[00:39:12]However, it should be noted that saying that a theory is falsiable is not the same thing as saying that theory should be falsified. If a theory is indeed falsified based on empirical evidence, then it was a pure poor theory to begin with.

[00:39:32]Parimony.

[00:39:33]Parimony examines how much of phenomena is explained with how few variables.

[00:39:40]It explains that the theory that uses the smallest number of variables or makes the fewest assumption is the best.

[00:39:49]It tells the simplest most intelligent explanation is usually the one closest to the truth.

[00:39:59]I gave the example of income and consumption. Here we find that consumption is explained by the income not so many so so many variables. So it means that when faced with multiple possible explanations the one requiring the fewest assumption or steps is preferred. It is also known as Okam's razor named after the philosopher William of Oakham.

[00:40:31]Parimony does not necessarily equate to simple concepts but rather but rather rather to simple explanation.

[00:40:41]A theory might be complex in its formulation but still be considered parimonious if it explains a wide range of phenomena with minimal assumptions.

[00:40:54]While analyzing the data, researcher should try to find the simplest model that adequately explains the observed pattern, avoiding complex models with unnecessary parameters.

[00:41:08]In social sciences, parsimony helps researchers develop clear, testable, and efficient explanations by favoring simple models that still capture the essence of the phenomenon. In essence, parsimony is a guiding principle that encourages researchers to go for simpler or more elegant explanations when multiple explanations are possible promoting clarity, efficiency and a focus on the most likely causal relationship.

[00:41:44]So friends, we have discussed the attributes of a good theory. Number one, the logical contingence, logical consistency, then the explanatory power, then the falsifiability and then the parimony. With this theory, this lecture I conclude this lecture and I wish that this makes you very clear about about the theories in scientific research. I have given the reference but of course I recommend that you expand your horizon by going through many other references. Thank you very much.