Davydov’s analysis effectively strips away the noise of minor territorial shifts to expose the unsustainable cost of Russia's grinding war of attrition. He provides a realistic perspective on how geographical barriers and defensive depth continue to stifle any hope of a decisive strategic breakthrough.
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Deep Dive
Update from Ukraine | Very Big Trouble for Russia | Ceasefire is Broken | Frontline UpdateAdded:
Hello my friends. Let's start from the front lines. I want to point out the location where Ukrainian defense is now really in I wouldn't say in trouble but where Russia has the advantage from all of the front lines. It is happening we may already say in Slovan's direction where Russians went to Kaluka village and they put their flags there. This is more than usual advancement because not just they went to the village but they also expanded the gray zone towards Kaleni and Ry Alexandrifka almost reaching the settlement. So for Ukraine this direction should be now priority number one in the broad there were also fights report on the way to Leman and Leman is mainly cut from supply. So for Ukraine it's also hard to provide some of the defense for this settlement.
Well, as for this year, I expect Russians to occupy Leman and this territory down to this river. Well, even though Ukraine is now performing the counter offensive operation in Yampel, it's not enough, guys. And our forces, they really struggle there because Russia hit the most important roads on the way near Ozern and Yurua. Yeah, Ukrainian infantry is in Lemon, but it's getting harder every day to provide supplies. Mostly those are being conducted with the help of the drones.
Well, Ukraine likely has lots of the heavy cargo drones. Those are Baba vampires. They may drop not just mortar mines, but also some of the supplies and that saves Ukraine a lot. Russia, for example, doesn't have the anal of those drones, so they use smaller ones. Russia is advancing really slow, but in this direction, as I mentioned, not really in Leman, but in Slovance, they're getting more ground. And as for today, advancing with this vast area. This is not normal, not usual. I would say if we checked how Russia bog down for the last couple of months. Nevertheless, this year I do not expect for Russia to go to Slavans from this direction despite their recent success. I think they will reach there is the river here it goes. So I think that they will occupy all of this territory. Sorry, I should use different color. Yeah. So they will move like this and they will take all of this land and lemon. So I think this is the maximum which they might reach this year not more. The fight for Slovansk itself may go for couple of years maybe year and a half like it is ongoing for militantka but before was one and a half years plus we should take in account lots of the war obstacles and again this river which I mentioned you and Ukrainian defense lines on the way. There is the major one goes in parallel with E40 road. Plus you may see the city itself is cut with a river. It's kind of wide one. Couple of the districts like Heck and Cheriffkovka are on the eastern side. So for Russia, well they need to cross several of the rivers on the way. It's very hard task.
So going to Slovansk as they go right now. Well, it's a very almost impossible mission especially for this year and how they use their resources. I don't think that they will be capable to go to this part of the city this year. Maximum I think they will reach this smaller river nearka. After I think they will stop in this direction for the winter campaign and attack once again in 2027. So realistically they might actually went into the city maybe in 2027 or 2028.
And why do I give you those two years, maybe even three years? Because there is no visible signs from Putin and Russian regime to finish or stop this war or freeze it. They want to go, they want to attack, they want to get more territories. But here is, as I told you, because of the multiple of the obstacles, it's a very big trouble for them. Even though in civ they were definitely successful. Well, Ukrainian army also strikes them there. Their supply hubs. Nevertheless, Russians are moving with a small attack operations.
Yeah, it happened not today, not this day, but yesterday and the day before yesterday. They went here and propelled with a gray zone. But what they cannot do and what potentially could be more profitable for them is to occupy Leman.
Yes. uh but also to go through those bridges to Sloven from the north and there are no any water obstacles on the way except Sironets river but Russians created a problem for themselves kap putting those bridges yes they cut Ukrainian supplies for lemon main supply direction was this bridge and the other one and the third one it was also hit you see this part is absent but Russians at the same time if they occupy Leman they'll be not able to cross the river.
Any sort of the Panon Bridge will be destroyed by Ukrainian drones, Ukrainian artillery, aviation gliding bombs. So there is no way actually for Russians to go to Slovansk from the northern area and here they have to go very slowly through difficult terrain, lots of the obstacles. For now they're successful because there no any settlements and they're not reaching Ukrainian main defense lines. But soon they will feel really the resistance of Ukrainian army.
Probably the only mistake was with Crisisk for Ukrainian defenders because there was the defense line. But anyways, we have what we have and the most defended part is still this part of Slavansk, the eastern side. Chromaturk and of course Constantinfka.
Even for Constantinfka, Russia is unable to get into the settlement with multiple of the attacks. Yeah, they're getting closer. And finally, I think maybe this year they'll occupy the settlement, but it's just one more from many. Even for the western part of Donetsk oblast to occupy all of those villages and towns and cities, Russia will have to waste many more thousands of the soldiers. I mean really more, maybe hundreds of thousands because this is the main defense line of Ukraine in general.
However, at the same time, Ukraine is getting ready for the further defense behind and the construction works are in progress. But in general, I would be kind of concerned about this Russian recent movement. It was kind of the surprise I would say for me that Russians are sometimes capable to gain the ground. Ukraine is also successful with a counterattack. For example, in stepheld they are forced to retreat to Plav and step over. The fight is now going for the settlement malerbachi as well. There is the big big problem for the Russian supplies in that particular direction.
They sent most of the forces to Dombas and to Pocross direction. As sir says Russia can traded 106,000 troops just in Porocross Kamir Nagarat and honestly I don't know what they want to do there because after Pocross there are four main layers of Ukrainian defense and how to penetrate those that's the mystery for Russian military command. Guys just a short break. Please press like to this video and subscribe for the channel.
Both of two actions that really help this channel a lot. And if you want to support this channel financially, you may check out the link for Patreon or join membership of the channel by pressing button join. It really makes this content possible, my friends.
You're awesome. And let's continue with the video about the real frontline images. For example, this is the group of the Russian infantry that was placed and they landed to the local tree line.
As you might see already lots of the leaves on the tree, so it's very easy to hide compared to the winter time. And here the drone is coming. And I cannot show you the kaboom itself. But as the result, yes, I may show you. There was the track. Not just one, but several of those. And of course, Russian infantry inside uh decided to cook a little.
Also, for the first time, we have the confirmation of Russians using those toilet tents. Before they were spotted just on the training, but now we have the real evidence published by Ukrainian drone operators. Well, as you see, they're still kind of visible, especially then they move in this thermal camera. I think they should lay down if they heard the drone or something, but still, yeah, pretty much visible in a tree line. It could be better for them. But the open field environment, of course, well, here it was kind of difficult to find it. Yeah, from depends from what perspective. Here it's nearly visible but the silhouette it shows that there is the toilet tent with Russian inside and yeah we have the kaboom confirmation. So Russians are using different tactics for advancement but sometimes it helps they try to advance in Sloven's duration as I said to you probably accumulating the forces in some of the small tree lines forest patches or small settlements villages using those infiltration attacks. Yeah, of course they're being caputed mainly on the way, but still with some time they accumulate forces and it's enough to advance somewhere to commence some of the rapid strike. So Ukraine may leave some of the positions letting Russians to occupy some of the patches of the territory. And this slow movement continues continues and continues.
Sometimes well as usual the task of those soldiers is just to show Russian flags being filmed by the Russian drone.
Well, yeah, toilet tents, they're like that. And why are they toilet tents?
Because they literally are. Here's the image. It is called a toilet tent. And Russians are using those, I would say, occasionally, maybe massively, on the front lines. Yeah, they're not using those for purpose. I mean, for the to but maybe maybe for purpose, especially when they see or hear Ukrainian drone coming. Yeah, but looking at the standard Russian soldier thermal trace, of course, maybe it's better to use some of the protection like toilet tent at least because this heat of course is pretty much visible. So there should be some of the anti- drone wear like anti- drone clocks or toilet tents. Well, at the same time, Ukraine is using lots of the unmanned ground vehicles and this one is launching drones. You see that it went to closer to the Russian positions and here's the drone. Probably it's even fiber optic control drone. Here's the video from the drone itself. That is how Ukraine implements new technologies in Russia. Well, what they have in Russia, maybe some sort of the Rubicon unit.
It's like the special forces in the drone sphere of the Russian army. But the rest of the units, they're not using massively drone interceptors. They're not using FPV drones like you in Ukraine. Every sort of the brigade, every sort of the core, every sort of the army, they have special drone units or soldiers themselves. They know how to operate with the drones. In Ukraine, it is more massive. In Russia, no, it's like Rubicon. They have the best equipment, best operators. The rest are capooted by Ukraine. This is how this UV looks like. Rattle H. That's the name.
Some of the protection for the drones, of course, and it may go really far away because it has Starlink connection. It has a big battery. So, the range is limited just for the battery. And just recently, Ukraine started to use drone interceptors quite successfully. And those drones are equipped with the shotguns. And we have those fantastic videos of how Ukrainians demolish Russian FPV drones. Why do they fly that high? Well, that's the standard thing.
But maybe Ukraine also has the technology to define and locate Russian FPVs where they fly. Because to find this small thing in the skies visually through those googles I think it's not possible. I think that there is special electronic var shows the direction to reach Russian drone. And this is how the drone looks like. So it's not the classical shotgun but couple of the tubes and there is the cassette of the shotgun ammo. That's it. It more looks like launching fireworks or something.
Yeah. But it it's amazing looking.
Design is great. Very humane design. Oh, this is awesome. I like this more. Four barrels. Fantastic. And again, we have the image coming from Ukrainian drone.
This is the machine vision probably installed on the drone, but I'm not sure. And here we have it hitting Russian Malva. Malva is the huge artillery system. I think it's 200 something mm caliber. And it was definitely hit. It was a Russian to S43 Malva built self-propelled artillery system. Yeah, it looks like that. This is the crazy huge and very expensive Russian weaponry. Ukrainian drones, they don't care. They just go on heat and that's it. All right. Now, about cis fire, it is here and there. Mainly there are no strikes, but for example, Russia hit one of the gas emergency service vehicle somewhere in the Hark region.
So, the place was gelated. There are some of the towers. The place was identified as the spar of the road in the hark region. A pickup belonging to the net global gas was destroyed by Russian FPV drone. I hope that people inside are okay. So we have the reference to telegram and yeah unfortunately there was the fire. I wonder about people. We don't have the information yet. So I'm sure that there will be some of the provocations from the Russian side. So that one happened today, 9th of May, not 8th of May because videos which I show you here in my video, they're dated before. So for example, this one gelation of the Russian air defense systems, it was filmed before. I haven't showed you this one, but let's see. Here we have tour M2. Russia is losing so many of the air defense systems. I wonder how many they are capable to produce each month. Well, this is the secret information. No one may tell you for sure. Allegedly about tours, they may produce around 100 units per year. But again, this is the open information. The real details are yet unknown. Uh this is Shila, the analog of the Gart thing, Gart air defense. And again, we have oil tanks busted. Some of the places where Russians hide and ammunition stoages, usual buildings with Russians presented there. And you see this settlement is Luhansk itself, the city of Luhansk and it's very far away from the front lines even buildings and nothing is damaged there before you know but Ukrainian drones is reaching that far further and further and further or some people say deeper and deeper. Well from today Ukraine is on a break or there will be the break for 2 days but later on we'll see. There no any signs that Putin wants to continue this tourism? No, he wants to reach the goals of the special military operation. Good luck with that then. I don't believe that it's possible. No, with the current Russian state and their economy, their military, it's not possible.
That's the Russian army, guys. This is the real parade that was conducted in Tatarstan which is the part of the Russian Federation at the same time.
Yeah, you saw it probably on the screen.
Yeah, here is the parade in Moscow. And here they have their alternate parade.
Never ever those guys would be allowed to march like that in Moscow. Of course, Putin doesn't want to show this picture.
And you know, I'm also sure that someone will be punished out there. Some of the local governor, is it a girkinator?
And this is the motorized Russian brigade. You know, motorized. Yeah.
Before it was mainly infantry, but here we have mostly vehicles.
>> They have their own parade probably near some of the military unit, a military branch or military base, I guess. So, Yeah, this is the mighty Russian like what happens usually to Russians. Yeah, Russians should share those kind of the real parades of what is happening with them and they've been thrown to Ukraine.
Yeah, this is what might happen. They're either a flight line cancelled or >> they're like that.
What is the reason for them to be in that state right now? Like and no one actually truly forced them to sign the contract with the Russian army. There was the mobilization but um the mobilization could be easily avoided according to the Russian legislation.
borders are opened and and there was no like prosecution if Russians decided to leave and not participate into mobilization being drafted to the front lines and even if they refuse to go to conscription center if they have the personal notice maximum what they could have obtained is some of the fine no jail term nothing fine but many of them hundreds of thousands they went and joined the Russian army they thought that it's some sort of the kinder carton or I don't know, summer camp, winter camp. Here's the result. Well, I think it's the hospital after all. Yeah, local hospital because this this is probably a doctor or some medic. I don't know.
Well, show this one to Gasimov this video. They're moving. So, if they move here in Russia, they may also move in Ukraine across the front lines with the Russian flags. They're almost ready.
They don't need Kalashnikov. Just go and take positions. Ooh. Put some of the toilet tents on them and they're ready to roll. All right. Putin went on a press conference today where he stated that Ukraine didn't agree on some of the list of the prisoners of war that Russian side presented to Ukraine. I mean Ukrainian prisoners of so Russians have the list of Ukrainians which they would like to give to Ukraine. Not vice versa. Like if there is the exchange, usually an opposite side gives the list and the exchange happens but Russians are dissatisfied somehow and Putin today stated that Ukrainians are not ready for exchange. So basically what he does, he's sabotaging it. It's Russia that is not ready. And come on, Donald Trump said about thousand people, thousand soldiers exchange. So Putin has to follow it, right? But no. So as for the 9th of May there is the big big question about the exchange and from Ukrainian side so far there is no comment about this Putin's statement that Ukraine is not ready. A very weird thing. Well, Ukraine held itself from the strikes on Moscow, Moscow's parade or other Russian infrastructure on 9th of May, but Russia, they they don't want to exchange, it seems like. And it was the main reason for Ukraine not to strike, to let Russia to commence this parade.
By the way, it was the shortest parade in Russian history, just 45 minutes.
Briefly, Putin went there and escaped.
Again, it tells that they don't care about their prisoners of war and they continue to keep Ukrainians in hostage, especially Azov style soldiers. And yeah, it is very very bad what is happening. This break is never trust Putin, never trust Russians and the ceasefire which is now allegedly ongoing. It's actually not ongoing. I have a report from one of the Ukrainian officers. There is no such direction where the ceasefire announced in recent days would actually work. Moreover, it is increasingly becoming a laughing stock as everyone has long since realized the ineffectiveness of such measures. In essence, the war is still going as before and such actions as ceasefire are likely of political nature. Perhaps at the strategic level, this whole story is working, but we don't know about it. just like much else behind the senses of this war. Well, other guys and commanders, they're saying that intensity of the fights dropped down significantly, but yeah, the shooting is happening. Also, longrange strikes sometimes, but not that much as before. So, partially it is working, but not fully of course. And there are provocations from Russia.
Yeah, this guy is provoking even with halting the prisoners exchange and threatening Ukraine not to exchange at all. So Ukrainian side is not Ukraine.
It was the main idea and Zilinski commented in his address that this is the reason we let you to go to Red Square without being hit by some of the drones. Yeah, you did it but now you start to blackmail for what? For what?
and some of the remarks from his interview, the parade was without military equipment because the Russian armed forces need to focus on final defeat of the enemy. So they needed those tanks and other vehicles. It's the excuse for Putin about the possible meeting with Zilinski. Well, Putin hasn't received any sort of the messages from Fitz. Well, allegedly Zilinski told to Fitz to pass the message to Putin that the meeting is needed to resolve the war, but Putin said no, nothing happened. Fitz didn't tell me anything.
He said, "I just heard again. Mr. Zilinski is ready to hold a personal meeting through the mass media, not through FIT. But we heard it not for the first time. Please let him come to Moscow." And for Moscow, he needs Zilinski to sign the final capitulation of Ukraine. That's the only condition uh when he would meet Zilinski. I do not expect any sort of the other meetings and Zilinski will not participate that one because capitulation of Ukraine is actually not possible. So Putin said that we may meet even in a third country but only when the final agreements of the peace treaty have been reached on a historical perspective. So capitulation he also said that according to his feelings the war comes to its end. Yeah of course of course but at the same time he said something about the western borders of Ukraine that they also should be secured. So to what extent should the security zone be expanded perhaps to Ukraine's western borders? The journalist asked Putin. Well, you've already answered this question. We need to make sure no one threatened us. So, Ukraine should be fully pro-Russian according to his statement and at least partially occupied, maybe fully occupied in his mind. Yeah. And he also threatens Finland and Armenia with the Ukrainian scenario. He accused Finland of joining NATO and he tells that Finland is waiting for the Russian collapse to take some of the Russian territories and Armenia. He said about the possible divorce and if that happens well we have a Ukrainian example then it joined tried to join European Union and you see what happens and just now we have the report from the head of the Harkf regional state government the enemy launched UAV strike on the industrial district of Kharkf. So where is the ceasefire? I told you guys, I told you that Russia will try to escalate because they don't need the ceasefire after they finished with their parade and they want to accuse the Ukrainian side of breaking the ceasefire and escalation and tell to Donald Trump, it's Ukraine, it's it's not us, it's Ukraine because there is no punishment for violation of the ceasefire. There are no monitoring groups out there to check, oh, who is sending those missiles or artillery shells whatsoever. Yeah, the ceasefire actually doesn't exist as one of our officer says mainly. Yeah, the intensity drop but there is no ceasefire. And guys, here I want to play you this clip because I was shocked that Russia is presented out there in Europe that massively. Yeah, video just one and a half minutes but the conclusion is very great presented by Kellen Robertson, a friend of the channel.
>> So the Russians are back in Europe and behind me they got a pavilion at the world's most prestigious art festival.
And this isn't even the worst part. The hotels are full of Russians. The bars are full of Russians. And not just ordinary citizens, people with direct ties to the Russian state. People directly linked to Sergey Lavro. And this is exactly how this works. 2014 happens. Europe is shocked. Europe gets back to normal. 2022 happens, Europe is shocked. And now Europe is slowly getting back to normal. And the Kremlin, they know this cycle. They use social gravity to pull everyone back into normality. So again, the most shocking part about this isn't just the fact they've got a base, a pavilion back at the art show. It's the fact that this entire city, which is at the heart of European culture right now, at the heart of high society, is now full of Russians. And that that's exactly how Russia does this. It commits an atrocity like the full-scale invasion or like 2014 or like what they did in Syria or Georgia. And then they pretend like nothing's happened. And then they slowly wait for fatigue for Europeans, for the rest of the democratic world to wait for things to go back to normal so that people forget, forget what they do and forget what they're like so that the Russians can be seen as a civilized country. And this is exactly how authoritarian states have behaved throughout history. Committed an atrocity and used things like this cultural events and sports to whitewash their crimes. We saw this in the 1936 Olympics. Hitler put on a grand show.
And now we're seeing it right here at Venbian Ali in 20126. And this this is exactly how history repeats itself over and over again. Honestly, not with tanks, not at first, but with champagne and invitations.
>> So yeah, Kellen is a great awesome guy.
He went to Davos to confront Vitkav about the Ukrainian topic. He is also now in Veneza where Russia is presented massively and I do agree with his conclusion about this one. And yeah, thank you Kellen for what you do for Ukraine. You're awesome. Yeah, Kellen has his own channel. It's called Kellen Robertson and he took the interview of President Zilinski which could be very interesting. Well, my recommendation and I guess that's it for today guys. going to keep you updated tomorrow and yeah for this Sunday tomorrow yeah I going to make a live stream close to the evening I guess and also guys please support my channel with your support on Patreon the link for it you may find in a video description right below and also you may join membership of the channel by pressing button join it is really helping it is making my job possible thank you so so much but also don't forget to press like to this video and subscribe for the channel we're on a way to reach 1 million subscribers hopefully this here. Well, guys, you're awesome.
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