RED ALERT: TRUMP -54

Added: 2026-05-22

[00:00:00]a red alert for MAGA in November as Donald Trump is minus 54 in 18 months.

[00:00:10]That is not a glitch. I'm not I'm I'm not glitching. That is not a typo.

[00:00:15]Donald Trump has a massive political problem. And it's a group, by the way, that doesn't get a lot of attention paid to it. It's people who didn't vote in 2024. Now, let me build up the case for you here. CNN's Harry Enon highlighted this disastrous number for Trump. Trump used to be plus4 among people who didn't vote in 2024 and now he's minus 50. So plus4 50 divide by 0 s cosine tangent raised to the 7th power that's minus 54 in 18 months. And let's explain, let's hear the explanation from Harry and >> ones that are changing, that are moving, that are different than the last election.

[00:01:01]>> You know, you mentioned the Republican base in your intro and then obviously there's the Democratic opposition, but what about those who didn't cast a ballot at all in 2024, those who didn't show up to vote? Well, they have become absolutely perturbed. I dare say they are pissed off at the president of the United States. Voters who didn't cast a ballot in 2024. Trump's net approval rating back in November of 2024, just after the election. Look at his net approval rating. It was plus four points for his plans in office. But look at that. It is fall. Yeah, there you go, Sarah Sidner. That's the only sound you can make. It has fallen through the floor. Look at this. Minus 50 points on Trump's net approval rating among voters who did not in fact cast a ballot in 2024. That is, you don't have to be a mathematical genius. an over 50 point move against the president of the United States among those who are kind of like me you know in terms of voting in 2024 but now they are pissed off well and that's the thing the term >> all right so let's talk about this I believe this is a complete and total catastrophe for the Republican party if you know big-time Democrats hate Trump fine big-time Democrats hate Trump whatever if people who have MSNBC turned on in their houses 18 hours a day hate Trump okay fine and they hate Trump.

[00:02:18]These are disengaged, lowinformation, inconsistent voters. When that group strongly turns against you from the little they are paying attention to it, it usually means that something very deep is happening underneath the surface. And what Harry Enton's point is is that this is about the economy. This is where Trump world kind of keeps misunderstanding the political movement, arguably in a similar way than how Biden understood it during his presidency. You can flood social media with AI images of you looking like Jesus, which Donald Trump has done. You can scream about the culture war issues and men and women sports and all of the stuff the way Trump and Republicans have done. You can go on Fox News and declare victory every single day and claim that in week 12 of a three-week war, you've won. You You can do that. But if people feel I'm broke, I'm exhausted from this stuff, I'm anxious from how uh erratic governance is, I'm stuck, the performance of we're winning everything is not going to matter. And people, we we've now really looked at the numbers deeply. People are carrying credit card debt at insane interest rates at greater and greater levels. Auto loan delinquencies are surging and currently at their highest level in history. Food prices have only gone up, not down. Gas is out of control. Housing seems totally out of reach for younger Americans.

[00:03:46]Insurance costs are exploding. People feel like they're constantly working just to maintain their lives with no extra. And of course, the people who are only loosely paying attention are now going to say, "No, I think Trump's doing a terrible job because even they are seeing it in their day-to-day lives."

[00:04:05]The really uh kind of dangerous part for Trump and for Republicans in November is who these voters are. People who skip elections are usually less ideological.

[00:04:16]They're less tribal. They're less politically loyal, which means they are more often reacting to real world conditions than like inside the beltway stories or what you would see on MSNBC or whatever. If life feels expensive and unstable, they're going to say, "I don't approve of who's in power." And these are the voters that can turn an election, especially a midterm election, because frustout is lower in midterms. And when even people that don't really always vote and don't follow politics, when they all of a sudden say, "Hey, I'm at a boiling point. I can't do more of this. I'm going to go out and vote." That can turn an election completely. You've got the voters who watch the three-hour podcasts about ideology.

[00:04:58]They are not this group. This is a group that is not keyed in to the online culture war discourse. They go, "What's my rent? How much am I making? What's the grocery bill? How much debt do I have? What's coming in? What's my stress level with what's taking place? Is my life getting better or worse? And we have a lot of polling that uh 80% of Americans expect the economy to be worse in a year than better or the same. And so when a president loses 54 points with disengaged voters, it's because people are realizing things are getting worse and I might go out and vote as a result of that. Now, there are still structural advantages for Republicans. You've got a polarized country. You've got an effort from Republicans to depress turnout. Trump has a very loyal base to the extent that he's keeping most of it. And midterm elections are often decided not by the loudest supporters, but by the people that are exhausted. I might vote or I might not depending on whe whether I feel like I need to go out and make a statement. Losing 54 points among unengaged voters absolutely means some of those voters are going to want to go out and make a statement in November.

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