Bertha near landfall close to New Orleans

[00:00:00]Tropical Storm Bertha continuing to be sheared out here in the Gulf as it's slowly working its way towards the west as of 11:00 a.m. here on Wednesday morning has winds about 50 miles per hour. That is down by about 10 miles per hour from this time yesterday. So that shear continuing to weaken it and also keeping the bulk of the convection just offshore and south of Louisiana here. I'm meteorologist Robert Speta. Let's break this down in a little more detail.

[00:00:29]So right now this storm is slowly still working its way towards the west. And you see all that convection due south of Louisiana? That's actually well removed from the low-level center. A classic sign of some rather significant shear.

[00:00:43]So into New Orleans, even though the storm is technically going to be passing right over you, you're not really getting the worst of the weather. And max wind reports out of that area, 30-40 knots. There is tropical storm warnings in place. I mean there are going to be some breezy conditions. And even some coastal flooding is possible at a high tide. Some of the type of impacts you see at a full moon high tide when the wind is coming onshore. So just want to reiterate that this is not the type of storm surge that you would see in a full-blown hurricane, but definitely going to see some high water level rises. But for places like Biloxi over towards Mobile, even though the storm is technically passing right near you, you're looking at some partly cloudy skies today with a stiff onshore breeze.

[00:01:26]Overall, this is going to continue to track off towards the west as we go through Wednesday and also into Thursday, slowly weakening out as it continues to edge closer there towards the Texas coastline. But right here, you can actually see that low-level circulation on radar. Actually just south of Bay St. Louis. And looking more and more like it is going to pass directly over New Orleans. But once again, let's reiterate. This is the low-level circulation. Really broke up with that convection around what would be an eye wall, it's not really, and it is maintaining this relatively weak status with the bulk of the convection and the heavy showers really being sheared further towards the south and towards the west here as we can see on multiple images, satellite imagery here, different types. And even if we look further towards the east, that shear also ushering in dry air, which is why it is so dry and so hot over Florida, an indirect impact of the shear that is influencing our storm system further off here towards the west. So, that's actually a look at the upper level winds here and just kind of breaking this down here for you. So, let's talk about the GFS and the European model, the spaghetti plots. As this looks like it's going to continue to go towards the west, but I always stress those spaghetti plots are just one part of forecasting. A lot of people like to look at these, but this is a clear indicator of how this doesn't tell the whole story at all since the bulk of the convection is well towards the south of that circulation. Doesn't tell you it's completely exposed and doesn't really tell you what the winds are either within that storm center. So, storms continue to be sheared. Some tropical storm strength winds are possible, but definitely on the low side there along the immediate coastal areas of Louisiana and into Mississippi. So, we have tropical storm warnings in place and there is still a rip current risk along the east coast due to that broad wide wind field and those southerly winds influencing the eastern seaboard of Florida and even over towards Georgia.

[00:03:23]So, it's a little bit of a indirect impact there. But you can see here on a high resolution future cast that just keeps going off towards the west and it weakens out out over Texas. And in right here, once again, those winds passing right over New Orleans. Yeah, you could see some low end tropical storm strength winds, but nothing that's going to be significantly dam- damaging. And unlike Arthur, remember that brought catastrophic amount of rainfall, the bulk of the convection staying offshore, so the bulk of the rainfall staying offshore. There is still some precept, but it really it is definitely a lot less than in other storms.

[00:03:58]As we went through the end of the week, there's another front that could dip down from the north increasing rainfall by the end of the week and into Monday for parts of the southeast including here on the first coast, but for now it's all high and dry as we continue to monitor Bertha as of the 11:00 a.m.

[00:04:14]update continuing to weaken here. Now with those winds of 50 mph. Make sure you continue to check back firstcoastnews.com for more information. I'm meteorologist Robert Speta.