Models Show Multiple HUGE Cold Fronts... Arctic Air & Storms

[00:00:00]In today's video, we're going to be diving into the upcoming pattern. Taking a look here at a very, very interesting pattern as we continue to see colder than normal air really, really dominate things in the eastern half of the nation. And it's really stemming from unseasonably warm and dry conditions set up along the west coast of North America that's forcing all of this colder, more active weather into the east. We'll talk about that a little bit later on. Of course, there is some severe weather upcoming, even an enhanced risk for the Plains tomorrow that we'll need to look at towards the end of the video. And we will be looking at all of the general storms rolling through as again, it is extremely active from the central states all the way to the east coast over the next two weeks. So, let's go ahead and dive into things. Firstly, taking a look at today on Friday the 19th. And what we see here is multiple pockets of storms.

[00:00:54]Uh, but the first thing I want to show you here is the jetream, which we can see if we follow these red lines is diving eastward. So, what we're getting is a lot of warmth pushing northward up the west coast here. Drier weather overall, although this is not the driest frame of the model run by any means. Uh, honestly, your jetream is a little bit further to the south here in the west than we see it the majority of the time uh here in the pattern at least. So, we are getting a little bit more storminess into the west for for the time being. Uh we do see a lot of Pacific influence here through the deep south with more moisture there. Also a lot of Gulf influence for these areas. So there's multiple reasons for why we're seeing consistent storminess along these deeper south locations into the southeast. And then along your northern jet, we can kind of see storminess uh for a lot of areas just to the north of that main jetream uh really really following it. Uh so we often times see this where storms are just moving along it like a highway. and we do see that to the north. So that's why we have all of these areas here set up with showery weather, even thunderstorms in some spots. Now, as we head towards Saturday here on the 20th, we can see that this jetream is a little bit further to the north and the west, but our eastern half is a little softer.

[00:02:13]Uh just a little bit of a descent towards the east. And this is going to be back and forth. Uh honestly, as we roll through the upcoming pattern as a whole, we do see this fluctuating quite a bit along the Rockies, we do have plenty of storminess, even a low here over Colorado. And this is causing some thunderstorms to really get going across the plains from Texas all the way to the Dakotas, uh even eastward into a lot of Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri. We do see the southeast here as well in the deep southeast. Some thunderstorms are present and still a few areas of storminess kind of traveling along that jetream in the northeast corner of the nation. Sunday on the 21st here we do get a more considerable low going across the Midwest and this forces kind of a drier warm front to get going to the east. So a little bit warmer probably along the east coast here for Sunday uh than any of the days surrounding it. We do see a cold front sort of trying to get going here underneath it. So we do have the dynamics at play. uh things get a little bit messy because we do have some lower pressure and storminess to the northwest of it. So, I think that the dynamics aren't able to fully fully uh get going, but by the time we reach Monday, it is very evident that we do have a dragging cold front underneath this and a little bit of a dip in the colder air behind that, which is usually what we're looking for. Uh warm and stormy for Monday the 22nd, it appears.

[00:03:32]Uh as we can see, if we follow these red lines, they kind of shoot northward once they hit the east coast here. And that's going to be a ridge. That is where we have warmer air set up along the east coast. Much like yesterday, we talked about it yesterday, was relatable to a lot of people, but um you know, often times these really hot days like this are extremely windy cuz we've got this air moving quickly to the north from that warm front pulling it kind of funneling it northward. you get this really fast traveling wind that is able to bring extremely hot conditions northward fast and it's not diluted by the cooler air to the north. The quicker that it's going, the more potent it's able to stay essentially. And this day on Monday reminds me a lot of yesterday in that same sense. So windy, hot, stormy at points here on Monday the 22nd is the way that I see it. Now, as we head towards Tuesday, we could see that a cold front has basically rolled through and now we're left with again a more ridge in the west, trough in the central and eastern states pattern.

[00:04:33]Little bit of uh it's not even that's actually high pressure in there. Somehow we're getting storminess right underneath that high pressure, but showers and storms it appears according to this model for the kind of north central states. Deeper south here, some thunderstorms are present and along the east coast, we're still a little bit turbulent. uh seeing some showers and thunderstorms around, but a little bit quieter as we reach kind of like the midweek point of next week. Although, we're already really climbing again by Wednesday. So, maybe not even the midweek point. Uh maybe just for Tuesday in general, a little bit quieter. But Wednesday, it looks like, you know, more areas than not have a chance of rainfall in the eastern twothirds of the nation here for the Plains, Midwest, and Deep South, and even along the East Coast.

[00:05:12]Again, more areas than not here seeing overall storms. Uh we do see this high pressure setup for California. Really, really significant ridge and high pressure set up over the west. This is kind of forcing this arctic air to move down into uh the eastern half of the nation. As we've been seeing for a few weeks, this has been the theme really.

[00:05:31]Uh now, as we keep just rolling through uh Thursday the 25th here, very very similar, maybe more intense with this ridge in the west, trough in the east dynamic as we're getting a lot of Arctic influence and arctic air rolling in at this point. And of course that does not mean 32° or you know lower than that.

[00:05:49]What this means is that this air is blasting in from the Arctic. It's moving in in a hurry. Very similarly to that push we were discussing uh up the east coast from the south that's bringing that hot humid air in a hurry. Sometimes these arctic blasts are moving in very quickly and they're a able to bring in like potently far below normal temperatures for the United States at least because this air is coming from again the Arctic. So, it's normal for up there. It's diluted a little bit by time it's getting down, but the quicker it's moving down, the less time that air has to really really uh mix. Now, as we take a look at Friday the 26 here, that ridge and trough dynamic is very, very intense here. Something like this is what we're seeing. And again, drier weather underneath for that ridge overall. Uh, and we're getting this colder air moving down into the east where we get the squeeze between this hot humid air from the south and the arctic air from the north. We do get a lot of instability along that kind of boundary in here as you can see. But a lot of our activities actually for the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast here by this point, kind of like the northeast corner of the nation on Friday the 26th. Moving towards Saturday the 27th, it is quite similar. Although we have some lower pressure kind of taking over for the center of the nation which is leading to severe weather perhaps thunderstorms here for parts of the plains Midwest.

[00:07:08]Definitely something we're watching for.

[00:07:09]Interestingly enough, we do end up in a double trough pattern here with a ridge in the middle. Uh by the time we're looking at the 27th, often times these types of patterns are going to feature a little bit less potent troughs on either side. The more troughs that we have in the northern hemisphere, the less intense they usually are. The less troughs we have, the slower moving and more intense that they are. Um, so when we have two over the United States or North America in general, you know that there's probably a lot overall if we were to look at the entire northern hemisphere, we have two here, just here.

[00:07:44]So, uh, we do get a little bit less intense with it in this type of a pattern as opposed to half the nation seeing cold, half the nation seeing warm. Usually that's digging a little bit deeper and a lot more intense. Uh Sunday here uh we kind of cut out that dynamic quickly. The 28th here we end up in a trough in the west ridge in the central states kind of the east here as this is moving northward. It's starting to progress over the east. So maybe Sunday the 28th right around the end of June is when we do get a pattern change here. We have a stronger low over the plains. A little bit of like warm front action happening here. obviously some storminess ensuing underneath that.

[00:08:23]That's very standard for these warm front events. Typically, you're seeing very dreary uh kind of cloudy conditions with steady rainfall. Uh whereas we don't have a cold front yet here, but typically that's where you're getting your thunderstorm activity. Nearby the low and to the northwest of it, we are seeing snowfall for the Rockies and rainfall for surrounding lower elevation areas. So, very interesting towards the end of June to be seeing that. As we head towards Monday the 29th, this low just really gets intense here for the north central states. Still, it has a pretty decent warm front dynamic going on. Somewhat of a cold front here. So maybe some severe weather somewhere underneath this low. I bet we're going to get something popping up here overnight though. Uh really not honestly. This low really gets crazy um as we head towards Tuesday. Look at how it like elongates and just dissipates.

[00:09:12]I've never seen that occur. it like stretches out. This is beyond 10 days, so sometimes you see weird stuff when you get beyond 10 days, so definitely take it with a grain of salt. But that was interesting to see it just like pulled apart like that uh and disintegrate. Um and then we just end up with general storminess over the east for a lot of it. And somehow by the time we're reaching July 4th here, you end up in a ridge in the west, a little bit of a trough in the east pattern here again, which would be just crazy for the 4th of July. oftentimes, at least here in Virginia, it seems that the Fourth of July is one of the hottest days of the year. Uh, almost every year, this would be like a wet kind of 80s type of day, low 80s maybe. So, very different than what we're used to for Fourth of July typically. But, it is crazy how for the first week of July, we do see a lot of this activity explode. I did mention yesterday and I, you know, this is definitely something that is true. It does seem like the final week of June until like the first week of July, maybe second week of July is the most active stormy period of the entire year for the eastern United States. So, we are moving into a um peak stormy time of year basically. GFS model, we're going to be looking for agreement and disagreement.

[00:10:26]Mostly what I want to see actually here is we see the trough in the east, ridge in the west, the storminess is obviously going to be pretty similar, but do we get this pattern flip at the 28th? We actually semi do we see this low kind of form across the central states and it's not as intense but we do see a bit of a trough and you know a little bit more of what looks to be a ridge in the east to me here forming uh for a period here a little bit earlier maybe 26th 27th here um and yeah we do stick in a more even jetream pattern what's funny enough is right on the 4th and 5th of July here is when we move back into original west trough in the east pattern so I mean Who knows? This is this is wild stuff that we've already been seeing this summer.

[00:11:08]So, nothing would surprise me too much.

[00:11:10]Um, but I just cannot believe how long lived this colder pattern has lasted.

[00:11:16]It's just insane to me. Total precipitation on the European model here is elevated throughout the central and eastern states here. Lots and lots of rainfall basically east of the Rockies.

[00:11:24]As you can see, almost everybody's in the red. The red is 2 to 5 inches of rainfall over a twoe period. So, if you were to kind of stretch that out to a month, we're looking at 4 to 10 in in this area on a 30-day period. That's basically putting everybody in the reds at average to above average as far as precipitation goes um even during the summer. So, we're looking at above average precipitation for almost everybody here in the reds. So, that is good news. Uh as we look at the GFS model, same thing here. Uh very, very similar. Uh on both of these as well, we have a very dry west which is seasonable. Um but the ridge is not helping. We can see that the precipitation is moving in with that jet that's to the north and our obviously a lot of our southern moisture in the Pacific is way far to the south. So you kind of just get mist here along the west coast. Pretty pretty common, but this ridge over the west and trough in the east pattern is not helping things out west either. Um very very dry out there on both these models. Temperature- wise, again, we've got colder air dominating in the east. And we can really see it at times, like I'll just draw an arrow, but you're going to see this is coming straight up from the Arctic, really like the north, as far north as you can see, it's originating and just blasting down kind of constantly here. Uh, another thing you might notice as we play it through is the warmth that is consistent along the west coast of North America that is h helping to cause this to occur. Um, so when I just kind of like play this in motion, it's really really overwhelming. It does not flip up hardly at all here through again the 28th. And what we start to see happen first is actually colder air along the west coast of North America, which is common. This is usually how the flips start because if you think of it like a river, the west is actually upstream uh from us. So they are getting what's happening there is basically affecting us, not the other way around.

[00:13:20]uh in the east that is so the west is upstream uh the east is downstream so the west is usually affecting the east more than the east is affecting the west we do see this colder air start up for the west coast and almost instantly you can see a pretty decent trough takes over although it ends up becoming more of like uh uh rockies and northern plains here the southwest is able to hold on to some of the warmth it appears but either way instantly we can see some warmer air spreading in for the east that's how effective this PNA is people, you know, I used to mention it a lot more and people would be like, "Why do you always talk about the PNA every single day? It's like the perfect thing to look at honestly to tell what the pattern's going to do, especially when looking at the medium and long range. We saw warmer temperatures in here and every single day was colder in the eastern uh North America essentially.

[00:14:09]And then instantly as we get colder air finally moving into this western corridor, we instantly get a reaction that's a total flip in the east. So it is a very very effective instrument to look at uh really to see uh what's going to be happening downstream. Now very quickly we rebound into some warmer temperatures along the west coast and pretty instantly we move back into a colder in the east pattern here for the 4th of July as we noted. So again you get this warmth and then it's like real fast the cold just shoots right back in to the eastern states. Pretty crazy how reactive this is right here. That was a great example actually of the PNA in action. Let's take a look here at the Storm Prediction Center outlook for day one. And we can see a lot of lighter greens which is your general thunderstorm risk areas where we expect general thunderstorms. We don't expect severe weather to occur but still heat every watch warning and advisories.

[00:15:02]These are a little bit tricky. We have four darker green areas and that's your level one marginal risk where we expect some isolated severe weather to occur uh within all of those regions. For day two here, uh, is where things kind of elevate. So, we have the general thunderstorm risk we just talked about, the marginal risk we just talked about.

[00:15:19]Then we see the yellow area throughout the plains. That's your level two slight risk where we expect more scattered about severe weather. And then in the orange, Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska there, that is where we have a level three enhanced risk of severe weather.

[00:15:33]And we actually expect a little bit more widespread severe weather to be possible in that area. Day three here on Sunday the 21st. Uh what we see is a similar day, plains, Midwest. Here we said we see the general thunderstorm risk, the marginal risk, and a slight risk here for Sunday the 21st. We don't have any extended day outlooks. Uh we didn't for Sunday either though. Uh Sunday the 21st, we didn't have one, I don't believe. And here we are with this outlook. So, a lot of times on these days where we don't have outlooks for the days four through eight, we still end up with a marginal risk or a slight risk. Um, it's usually just confidence isn't super high. So, they're not issuing them ahead of time. They're waiting for it to hit the day three and then they're kind of issuing the categorical outlook like this. So, it does not mean that there's going to be no severe weather days four through eight. Oftentimes, there is at least going to be some risk, especially this time of year. With all that stuff being said, guys, be sure to subscribe. We upload every single day. You can even hit the bell icon for daily notifications when we upload so you never miss one. Be sure to like the video if you did enjoy it. Leave a comment down below and I will see you guys in the next