WRAL Severe Weather Team's 2026 Hurricane Outlook

追加: 2026-05-19

[00:00:00][music] >> Hello everybody. Welcome on in. We got our amazing weather executive producer Amy Wilmoth, amazing meteorologist.

[00:00:12]We're talking today about our tropical storm outlook for kind of summer 2026, fall 2026. You know, this the hurricane season kind of stretches in between those two seasons. What do you have for us today? Um well, so we look at a number of factors when we start to do these long-term predictions. It's not easy to do, but um couple of the main things that we look at are sea surface temperatures. How warm is the ocean right now? And we have to look at um the Pacific and the Atlantic. More on that in a moment. Um we look for are we in a El Niño pattern or a La Niña pattern?

[00:00:51]Okay. Um and then we also look back at historical data. Um because we can learn from history. And um so those are the three main things that we look at. Um for this year, it is looking like an El Niño will be in place during our tropical season. It's in the process of developing right now.

[00:01:10]>> Okay. Um and just to kind of explain to that to to everybody what that means.

[00:01:15]So, um it's interesting that we're looking at the like equatorial equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures Okay.

[00:01:24]to determine whether or not we're in a El Niño or a La Niña.

[00:01:28]Everything in this globe is connected.

[00:01:30]>> It is.

[00:01:30]>> And um the wind patterns with um based on what the sea surface temperatures are in that particular region tells us whether or not we're in an El Niño or a La Niña. And right now the temperatures are warming. The sea surface temperatures are warming up in the equatorial Pacific. They're expected to be above normal this season, and that means El Niño is what we're expecting.

[00:01:53]If they were cooler than normal, then it would be a La Niña.

[00:01:57]And um what's important to note is during El Niño seasons, if you look back at historical data, we typically have fairly slow Atlantic tropical seasons.

[00:02:08]So that's some good news for us. La Niña, things are a little bit more active, but this year, yes, we are forecasting an El Niño and it looks like it could be a pretty strong El Niño as well. Well, first of all, I like how that kind of blinking statement kind of is the forecast, El Niño, correct? And also, another fun fact for the audience, meteorologists are technically historians.

[00:02:33]How often you guys look back in the past and just talk about previous storms and their impact as well.

[00:02:38]Uh El Niño Mhm. does that affect our drought conditions possibly any way, shape, or form? Well, it doesn't really bode well for us because, you know, we've been talking about how bad the drought is and that it would take a tropical system really to get us out of this bad drought right now. If we expect a slow tropical season, then that could mean that we don't have much hope to end this drought over the summer months and into the fall. Um but but one of the reasons that El Niño's So it's the sea surface temperature, so we know it's an El Niño, but the reason why it's a slower season for us is because of the upper-level winds and they tend to be a little bit stronger with an El Niño.

[00:03:29]And so, when you have the stronger upper-level winds, that tears apart the tops of these tropical systems. And so, when you tear apart the top of those systems, it makes it hard for them to strengthen. It sometimes makes it hard for things to even develop. And so, the So, the winds, based on the temperatures of the the sea surface at the equatorial Pacific, you know, it all plays a factor into why we expect it to be a slower than normal season. It's crazy how cooler temperatures in the Pacific cause higher winds in in upper atmosphere.

[00:04:06]>> Warmer temperatures in the Pacific.

[00:04:07]Warmer temperatures in the Pacific causes El Nino. Cooler temperatures cause El Nina. La Nina. La Nina. There we go.

[00:04:16]Yep. We're learning. We're all learning.

[00:04:18]And I and I I was talking about how we look back at history. So, we expect this to be a strong El Nino.

[00:04:25]You know, some call it a super El Nino and that just means that the sea surface temperatures over the Pacific are at least 2° above normal for 3 months.

[00:04:36]For three straight months and so that would qualify for a super El Nino. So, we look back. When was the last super El Nino and what did that mean for our tropical season? Okay. And that happened back in 2015.

[00:04:50]A super El Nino was developing during the tropical season. It was a below normal season. In fact, we didn't have any hurricanes make landfall in the United States.

[00:05:02]No, we had some tropical systems. We had some tropical storms.

[00:05:06]Anna was early season storm. I think it developed around May 8th and it did bring us some rain. So, there's hope obviously but the overall trend here is for it to be a below normal season. Back in 2015, they had 11 named storms. They only had four hurricanes. Two of them were major and again none of the hurricanes made landfall. So, looking back at history also tells us that we probably are in for a below normal season.

[00:05:37]Are there any I want to nerd out a little bit. Are there any models that you guys analyze to get to this conclusion as well? Can you talk about those Are of them? I know there's probably probably a few. Yeah, there's a lot of long-term models that we can look at to see what the sea surface temperatures might be like in the months ahead what the steering currents might be like in the months ahead. And so yeah, we we dove into all of that and used all of that data to help us make some predictions. So one of the things that we looked at for right now we looked at sea surface temperatures right now what are they like and in the Gulf. So we'll need to watch the Gulf early this season because already those numbers are above normal.

[00:06:20]So I think that is a potential for some early season development. So we'll watch the Gulf for that.

[00:06:27]Later in the season you were talking about the models later in the season it looked like we could have some pretty strong easterly winds in the main development region of the Atlantic. So you're talking like South Atlantic Caribbean main development region.

[00:06:45]We could have some pretty strong upper level winds which would mean that we have a lot of wind shear. So we wouldn't see as much development in that main development region. Perhaps it could be north of that. And so we'd have less wind shear north of that. So we're thinking maybe later in the season we'll need to watch the northeastern part of the United States just based on what the models are showing as far as sea surface temperatures and steering currents.

[00:07:13]Yeah, so those are a couple of things that we looked at for long-term. And these models are just what we're looking at with the data we have on April not April May 2026. Correct and how often do these models kind of evolve? I obviously more data points come in. Oh, everyday.

[00:07:28]Everyday? Everyday we're looking at it.

[00:07:31]Um Everyday we get new model data and everyday you know you could shift your forecast a little bit. And that's why a lot of these places that have um outlooks like some of the universities that do that, NOAA, um they'll release additional forecasts.

[00:07:48]So, they've um NC State, Colorado State have already released their preseason forecast. Um NOAA is going to do that fairly soon. Um but later in the season as they're getting more model data, they'll update their numbers. So, yeah, we're looking at model data every day. And I kind of want to um pivot here a little bit into global warming as well and kind of just the environment. Uh how much is that a factor in the equation here? Cuz I hear warmer sea temperatures, warmer just general the earth is just in general warmer right now in that period. Is there a global warming factor in there?

[00:08:21]Is environmental factor with this? Well, something to note with El Niño, and this is just based on history, is um El Niño years typically uh overall across the globe bring warmer temperatures. So, it's probably going to be a warmer year for us as well. And that's that's just looking back at the actual history.

[00:08:39]Um so, it's probably going to be a pretty warm year if this El Niño does pan out. And I think it I think it will.

[00:08:44]Mhm. Absolutely. Well, I definitely got to talk to Liz McLaughlin about that as well because uh Liz McLaughlin, if you guys do not know, she's our climate change reporter, amazing. Go to wral.com, go to the climate change uh section and look up uh her reporting as well. It's very interesting. So, we're coming up to the end of this. What else do you have? Anything else about about uh the tropical outlook that people should know? Yeah, so the Pacific typically in El Niño, um they actually have an active season um based on history. So, we'll watch Hawaii, we'll watch Mexico for some um action in the tropics. And then I think what everybody wants to know is what is our actual forecast. Um the WRAL forecast this year for the tropical season, we're going with 11 to 14 named storms and the average is 15. So, just under the average, we're going five to seven hurricanes. The average is seven, so we're a little bit under the norm.

[00:09:38]And then two to three major hurricanes, and the average is four. So, again, all our numbers are just slightly below average, and that's just based on all of the data that we're getting and all of the history that we've looked at.

[00:09:49]>> This is the data we have in May 2026, and this is what we're looking at. Well, thank you so much, Amy. It's always [music] a pleasure, and we know that you're going to keep us updated. Where can people find you on the socials?

[00:09:58]Where can people find your reporting, your forecast?

[00:10:01]>> [music] >> I'm on Instagram. I'm on Facebook.

[00:10:04]Um I'm on WRAL News Plus, our streaming channel, almost every day.

[00:10:08]Um >> [music] >> yeah, we're we're all over everything. I have TikTok, but I'm still trying to figure that out.

[00:10:13]>> [laughter] >> Oh my gosh. You know, I'll help you figure it out, as well. Well, as you guys know, wherever you guys can get WRAL, you guys can get Amy, [music] as well. Thank you so much for your time.

[00:10:21]>> Thank you.