How Paxton & Tallarico Might Both Win the Texas Senate Race

Added: 2026-05-31

[00:00:00]And on this race, it's a good example where I've got really great sources, people I trust, track record of being accurate, not overly partisan, so they're spinning me, who think this race is over, who think Taler Rico is not going to be the Democrat who breaks the losing streak that the Democratic party has had in statewide races in Texas now for decades. And then I've got sources uh again, regardless of party, who think it's close. Uh this morning on the morning meeting, uh Larry Okconor said he thought it was like uh I forget what he said, like 60 6535.

[00:00:33]Uh Kevin Walling thinks it's 5545. I hear a lot of respected people saying this race is right now 5545. The Republicans favored. I don't know anybody who thinks uh that the Democrats favored, but giving a Democrat, including one as controversial as James Terico, even a 30% chance to win this race, let alone a 45% chance, it's quite striking to me. And that differs from some. Dear Elise, longtime Texas analyst, was on the morning meeting. She said she thought it was basically a 100% chance practically, uh, barring some unforeseen development, that the Republicans would win. Uh and so this is a puzzle and if you're interested in politics, uh it's an interesting puzzle to try to solve. Where are we now? What are actually the chances of the Democrats winning this race? Uh and what are the factors that will determine as we go forward between now and November?

[00:01:24]Do his odds get better? Do his odds get worse? So interesting to me. And and of course uh every race, every statewide race has got some unique elements, but then every race also uh to some extent speaks to the national climate. And so I'm going to walk you through where I think we are in the race, what we know and what we don't know, and of course the what we don't know will play as big a role or maybe bigger in deciding who wins than what we know. And uh talk about again the specifics for Texas and and some of the bigger lessons. First of all, what do we know? Very hard for a Democrat to win statewide in Texas.

[00:01:58]Again, it hasn't happened in a long time. It's probably I I should have looked this up. It's probably got one of the longest losing streaks for Democrats in any state in the country. The wider issue is uh Democrats inability to compete in the South and in the Mountain West uh in a lot of these states that uh just don't elect Democrats statewide anymore. And for the Democratic party to uh be able to really compete to control the Senate, maybe get 60 votes someday in the Senate, a filibuster proof majority, they're going to have to win seats in red states. And the the influence of the Democratic party will will be uh much lower than it could be.

[00:02:33]If they can't win Senate seats, governor's races in these red states.

[00:02:38]So, it's hard to win for any Democrat to win in Texas. That's just the reality.

[00:02:41]Take away, it's Paxton versus Terico, it's just hard. The demographics of the state are hard. Okay. Uh you look at um at the voting uh demographics and try to say what what what's the breakdown? What where is it that what's the wall for Democrats? Well, they need to do well with all sorts of demographic groups that Democrats have not done well in with in a long time. Uh this week on Two Way Tonight had uh had on a guest who put it in sharp relief uh who made it clear how difficult it is for any Democrat to win in Texas. This issue of demographics of of uh of how any Democrat puts together a winning coalition is a complicated one. uh had Jim Kesler of Third Way, a moderate Democrat on uh two-way Tonight. Here's how he framed the challenge. And this is a super interesting way to think about the challenge or any Democrat to win statewide in Texas. This S12, please >> just mathematically for a Democrat to win Texas, that Democrat needs to win 73% of the moderate vote. That is a very, very high bar. That is not impossible to reach, but that is a very high bar. John Tester when he lost in Montana last time around he got 70% of the moderate votes. So like >> wow that that idea.

[00:04:00]>> Yeah. So that's just one way to slice and dice the the reason why Democrats haven't won in a long time in Texas and the challenge Telerico has 73% of moderates again it's a little bit of back of the envelope but but Kesler's point is uh that's a high high thing for for someone to do for any Democrat to do. And then and then the second thing we know is Terarico is not the ideal person to win over Texas moderates. Why is that? Because he's got so many past statements uh on social and cultural issues, economic issues that are just they're not going to appeal to moderates in Texas. They're just not. So we know we know that Talorico is not ideal, right? What we also know uh again working against Taller Rico is that MAGA media and the and uh digital media and and the political infrastructure both Texas and nationally they know how to do this. They know how to do what we call in Texas football student body right.

[00:04:54]And you've already seen since the primary on Tuesday a from Governor uh uh uh Greg Abbott on down and Governor Abbott's got a big campaign kitty that he can spend on this race. They're already in a very unified message disciplined way saying Taler Rico is not Texas. He's too liberal for Texas. And uh that's a problem. That is a problem.

[00:05:15]Here is one of many digital videos we've already seen. Uh this is Ken Paxton uh ad released uh this week defining Taller Rico as not Texas. S3, please.

[00:05:28]>> This is Texas. This is not.

[00:05:30]>> There are many more than two biological sexes. In fact, there are six.

[00:05:36]>> This is Texas. This is not.

[00:05:38]>> The American flag is such a complicated symbol for most of us.

[00:05:42]>> This is Texas. This is not.

[00:05:44]>> They're going to call me a radical leftist.

[00:05:47]>> This is Texas. This is not >> something that you love. That's not family or friends.

[00:05:54]>> Um, I love I'm just saying this cuz it's on my mind. The trans children.

[00:06:02]>> This is Texas. This is not >> our southern border should be like our front porch. There should be a giant welcome mat out front.

[00:06:10]>> This is Texas. This is not.

[00:06:13]>> It is now existential that we try to reduce our meat consumption. I am proud to say that our campaign um has officially become a nonmeat campaign.

[00:06:23]>> This is Texas.

[00:06:25]This is not.

[00:06:28]So, I've shown that video to a bunch of people, uh, including sometimes people who say, "Well, Taler Rico's got a chance to win for reasons we'll get to, and I show them that and they say, "Nope, it's over." Uh, if somebody was thinking of running statewide in Texas, a Democrat, and they went to campaign consultants and said, "Well, let me tell you about some of my past statements and some of those were included," they'd say, "Don't run." Uh, so we know that that Republicans will hammer that. We also know though on a positive side for Terico, he'll raise a lot of money. Now, we'll see how much he raises from big donors who may not want to risk a a long shot in Texas, but he'll raise a lot of money online. He'll get great great press coverage, and we know he's running against a weak opponent. We'll get to that in a second. We also know again in the national media coverage is they'll never turn on Terico. The Texas and national media, liberal media, will never turn on him. They love the notion of a Christian progressive, that he's young, that he's articulate, that he's a teacher, uh that he's, you know, very comfortable in the media. Okay, we know all these things. We know that Terica will be given every chance to win this race. All the money he needs, all the positive press coverage. Now, one thing we also know is Paxton did not win this nomination because of Donald Trump. And some of my colleagues are already writing that over and over again. Well, Paxton uh wouldn't be the nominee but Trump. The reality is uh the reason I think Donald Trump endorsed him when he did was because it was a foregone conclusion. He wanted to get in front of the parade. Paxton was way ahead and and that's because his main message is anti-establishment and and being tough on the border. And those messages allowed him to beat John Cornin, an establishment figure, the incumbent, and also puts him up well for the general election in the sense that that's the mood of the Texas electorate. Not everybody, but that's the dominant mood.

[00:08:12]Tough on the border, anti-establishment.

[00:08:14]Okay. Now, we also know though that Paxton is a is a weak candidate and that's why this is a race. That's why this is a race. Doesn't mean it's Donald Trump's fault that Paxton's the nominee is a weak general election candidate. He he won because within the Republican electorate, he was better better suited than Cornin, but he is unusually polarizing even by the standards of the way Texas Republicans have run. um his ceiling is probably lower in terms of what he can win in a general election than a generic Republican, but he has the advantage because the base will be more inspired to have to turn out for him than they would have been for Cornin. Um but his weakness is manifest and this is a weakness that comes from all the personal controversies, his uh trouble with the truth, trouble with the law, trouble in his marriage that's dissolving. Um Carl Rove made this point and looked at the data from uh in his column in the Wall Street Journal.

[00:09:04]Looked and he knows Texas well looked at the data and even before all these scandals became public and wellknown.

[00:09:11]Look at how Paxton has done the last two times he was in the ballot. Yes, he has won statewide in Texas in the past. But you look at how he's run compared to uh other Republicans running statewide in the last two years he ran. Go ahead and put that up. In 2018, he was on the ballot running for attorney general. And then again in 2022, he was on the ballot. And in 18, he ran 175,000 votes behind the average Republican, also on the statewide ballot. And then slightly better, 155,000 behind. But that's statistical. He's not been a strong statewide general election candidate.

[00:09:47]Okay. The issues in this race are not going to get much coverage. But what we know is almost certainly what will define the race is who's a bigger outsider. Is it the attorney general who's a fiery MAGA outsider supported by Donald Trump or is it um or is it Terico? Right? Those are the things we know from Focus Feature something exciting. It's from the producers of Darkest Hour. It's a new movie called Pressure. The untold true story of D-Day. In the 72 hours leading up to the largest seaborn invasion in history, General Dwight D. Eisenhower, he faced an impossible decision that would determine the fate of the war. As Allied forces prepare to land, two massive storms converge over Normandy. Behind closed doors, with the clock ticking down, Eisenhower must decide. Send 300,000 men into nature's unforgiven fury or delay and risk losing the war itself. There is no safe option, only consequences.

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