LIVE: Crucial Andy Burnham By-Election Gets Underway

Added: 2026-05-24

[00:00:01]Evening all. Um, happy Saturday. Very hot Saturday. Richie just said sizzling and sorry. It's pretty warm up here and all. Uh, it's going to be even worse on Monday.

[00:00:13]Yeah. And I I do a stream at midday on Monday.

[00:00:18]That's going to be nice. Um, right. I'm just going to start off with something.

[00:00:22]So, bi-election. Interesting. I am I was Well, I'll come to it in a moment. I'm going to go straight into the comments quite soon, but I want to just point out how weird a bi-election this is going to be from Labour's point of view.

[00:00:36]I would even argue unprecedented.

[00:00:40]Now, maybe there's a political historian in the chat. He's going to say, "Ah, Phil, I think you'll find something very similar happened in 1817." Okay, I don't know about that, but I would say that this is unprecedented. Okay, so here's the situation. So, you got a bi-election. you um it it's not the same as a general election. This is bi-election. This is for one seat and you've got candidates representing different political parties. There might be the odd independent, not all the uh I don't know when the deadline is for nominations for candidates. Um I think I don't think it's passed yet. So you've got a candidate for the party of government, of course, Andy Bernham, and you've got candidates for opposition parties. So the the candidates for the opposition parties will all push the same line. Variations on a theme of this one line.

[00:01:34]Vote to tell the country that you're not happy with the government. You know, vote to tell the government you're not happy with what's going on. That is the opposition's pitch. Reform UK, Greens, LIB, I don't know if the Libdems even standing. Don't know. Conservatives, whoever else. Restore Britain. Tell the government you want rid of them. and the rascals. They're no good. Change it all.

[00:01:56]We're not happy. And the candidate for the party of government will generally back a different line. It's like, no, let the country know that you're delighted with what's happening and return me to parliament so that I can make sure that all of the benefits of the wonderful work that the government are doing can be brought to your local area.

[00:02:19]But this is different because Andy Burnham is pushing the line that that makes him look very much like a Labour candidate of two or three years ago. You know, send a message that we need the government to completely change TAC.

[00:02:35]That's what he's saying. He he that's what he's saying, isn't it? So Andy Burnham is basically pushing the same lines as the opposition. Only difference is all of those opposition candidates the best they can offer the people of Makerfield is I will be aven a voice from the very back tier of the of the opposition benches going oh government rascals whereas Andy Bernham can say I will actually run the government it's a bi-election where they can run it and that is surely unprecedented uh I will also just point out in terms of the betting It it's it's been going back and forth a little bit actually. Um but it still remains the case that Labor are favorites. It's not worth betting unless you're desperate. It's not worth betting on Labor. It's a bit more tempting to bet on Reform UK, but their odds have shortened a bit in the last day. I think the best was about Thursday, I seem to remember. I saw I think one giving odds of like 13 to five, which is nearly 3 to one. It's much closer to two to it's actually shorter than 2 to one now. You're not even getting two to one with most bookies.

[00:03:50]But anyway, I'll go through some comments. Um because there are a few things to go over. Paul there saying the Greens pulled out. I do I unless you've seen something else. I think they still do intend to have a candidate but the Green Party candidate. Yes. uh withdrew within hours of being announced when a casual bit of vetting by the times I believe it was found out they were a bit of a wrong and and this is something the Green Party need to take seriously just we knew this as well I said this before the local elections just like Reform UK they are trying to rapidly expand and they're not they're not doing their vetting properly like if you announce a candidate and and straight way a professional journalist has found some shady past and not recent past as well.

[00:04:43]You haven't vetted them. The Green Party did not vet that candidate. I mean, there's no excuse for that, is it? You might understand it, you know, if you're trying to contest shitloads of council seats all across the country. You might you might say, "Well, we haven't got the the vetting system in place to deal with this." Uh, and a few will go sneak through, as indeed they have. But when it's for a bi-election, it's one candidate for goodness sake. But as I understand it, the Green Party are still intending to put a candidate forward. Um say reform candidate expos the misogynist and racist. Yeah. Amazing, isn't it? It's amazing. Yeah. Who would have seen that one coming? Uh Labour seem to find everything this they they will 100% fire everything at it. They But this is why it's going to be wiz. It was this is why I'm thinking it from an activist point of view. I mean, I remember um for example the Selby bi-election a few years ago. I I went up to Selby for that. I mean, it's not hundreds of miles away or anything. It's like 30 miles away, but it's still a bit of a trek. Um and I'm just sort of thinking what it'll be like for the people who will have different views. There'll be people going on knocking on doors for Andy Burnham who, you know, who who will be selling his message. There'll be someone thinking it's a bit weird. They're they're basically instead of knocking on the door and going, "Aren't Reform UK [ __ ] or aren't the Conservatives shit?"

[00:06:05]Having to say, "Yeah, Labour got it wrong. We're going to do it all madly different." Right. Madly different.

[00:06:11]It's it's a it's a weird situation for Labor activists to be in, but they will be coming from all over because the aim will be to knock on every door in Makerfield, every door in the constituency.

[00:06:22]So, and this is why although the the campaign is very far I say very far from the end, it's not that far from the end. In four weeks time, we'll know it's less than four weeks.

[00:06:34]It's not a long election campaign. Um, and Labour start out as favorites and they are likely to flood the place with activists from all over, experienced activists as well. Now, Reform UK may well also be able to get a lot of a lot of activists in. I don't know. Maybe they will. They've certainly got the money for the buses, but they may not be as experienced. The Labour ones will be experienced. I don't even know where Mayfield is. It's just under Wigan.

[00:07:08]It's basically just under Wigan.

[00:07:11]Um Liam there saying there's a lot of support for reform here on the ground at Makefield. I'm assuming the vote will be split. Also quite a few won't even go to the polling station in my opinion. Well, I mean as is normal for a bi-election, you might expect the turnout to be lower. However, what I will say again unprecedented normally the reason why the turnout is low in a bi-election is because there are people vote for different reasons.

[00:07:40]My personal reason for voting is for the government. for Westminster elections, it's to decide who the government is. Um whereas for some other people, it's decide who their local candidate is.

[00:07:54]Now, if you're a voter like me, it's um it's about the government. You can easily understand why you won't bother turning out for bi-election. Now, I do I will vote in all any and all elections, but that is because I just believe in always voting. But someone like me who's not as committed could easily just not turn up. But this is a vote that determines the election. Not the not the party of government, but it does determine the government. The government, if Andy Bernham wins, is actually the government's going to change anyway, but the the the because Kama can't hang on. Um, but if Andy Bernham wins, the government definitely changes and it changes to Bernham. So, it's it's like you know what you're getting.

[00:08:45]Not necessarily in terms of detailed policies. Obviously, you can't present a manifesto, but uh he's hinted at a few interesting things, but you know, you you you are basically voting for the next prime minister if you vote for Andy Burnham. If you're not, then you're not. you you're you're you're voting to to block what would otherwise be the next prime minister.

[00:09:07]Um so yeah, I can well believe well I know Reform UK are strong on the ground there. As I say, it's the sort of seat if anyone if Labour were to contest that with anyone else, they would lose it. If Labour were to contest like so let's imagine so let's I'll give you a scenario. Let's say that uh Andy Bernham was never blocked from Gorton and Denton. So let's say he won that bi-election and he replaced Dharma. Pretty short order. He's now the prime minister, right? So let's imagine if for whatever other reason this Makerfield bi-election came up, I still reckon Labour would lose it even with Andy Burnham as prime minister, you know. So yes, it is. It's strongly reformed these days. Restore Britain. I don't know how Wellville campaign, but they were out the gate very quickly with their candidate. I don't know what resources they've got, but they will inevitably split the vote a bit.

[00:10:04]Um, but we don't yet know how much the Green Party will split the vote with Labor.

[00:10:12]I don't think the Monster Raven Looney Party are going to take too many votes off anyone. Uh, but they have also announced their candidate.

[00:10:19]Um, John's saying now that Harry Magguire is not going to the World Cup, he's not happy about it. His family's not happy about it, are they? Maybe Slab Head could run on on Manchester May. His mom would like it. Yeah. Um, I think Andy Burnham seems to think there's already a decent candidate lined up in all honesty. Uh, so yeah.

[00:10:45]Um, someone was asking there about Rachel Reeves. So, interestingly, the scuttlebutt is that she could actually stay on as chancellor.

[00:10:57]Uh, there's a lot of discussion. I don't know. I mean, you know, this is from journalists who will have the inside track to an extent. Uh, there is a lot of discussion that the chancellor will under Burnon will probably either be Reeves or Miller band. the the thinking one way or the other is Miller band will be much more naturally aligned with what Burnham wants to do but um there'll be two major obstacles the first is investors will have less confidence and we really can't afford a loss of confidence from investors and the second whereas we know that Reeves has the confidence of the market so to speak the Second is unions. And I have pointed this out before if it sounds odd to people. The unions do not like the green agenda. And it's mad to me. It's absolutely insane.

[00:11:52]They're dead wrong. It's like with It's like the unions that were in favor of Brexit. They were just wrong. They were wrong about it. And they're getting it wrong again. But that is nonetheless the view of a great many of them. Um so yeah. Um whereas Reeves I mean you know Reeves is prepared to go along with some of the things that that Burnham wants to do anyway.

[00:12:21]Um and he has he has proposed some interesting ideas but again we won't know until he's won. Um David there saying my only defense for the Greens they don't have anywhere near the level of funding that Labor Reform UK are getting. No, I I absolutely agree that and that's why I say for the local elections I get it. It is still a risk though. It's a risk you have to you know ass you have to do risk assessments but for a for a bi-election it's one candidate like if a times journalists can within with a quick search I mean they it was I think it was I sort of missed it because I think it was when I was in London uh oh no it wasn't I think it was a Thursday but anyway I was catching up whatever reason I wasn't paying close attention to everything at the time but I think it was like nine hours after the announcement they withdrew and so that means a journalist first of all did a search for them found it they wouldn't have found it in within five minutes but they'd have found it obviously fairly quickly were reporting on it goes around gets to Green Party HQ and they go oh [ __ ] um and then they've got to contact the candidate to say can you step down please um but yeah they know they don't have as much money. That is absolutely true. But for one can you you need to at least vet Westminster candidates. I mean you need to you really should do a better job of vetting all of them. But they but you can understand hundreds of candidates for a local election. Thousands actually. The Green Party will have stood thousands of candidates for the local elections.

[00:14:04]Um or they they had the potential to anyway. there were about 5,000 seats up for grabs whereas a bi-election it's one it's one seat um let's hope Bernham gets in my worries that make a feel electorate will vote reform and nothing will change their minds that I think what you've got to understand is people who vote for a the vast majority of people who vote for any party are not um hardened supporters of that party the hard this is why it's always a problem when a party leadership has to defer too much to the party membership because the party membership is a small and I mean a small percentage of your voter base small percentage and um and and the same is true here the vast majority of people who voted Reform UK in the the council elections earlier this month or voted for them in the general election in 2024 or last year's local elections whatever The vast majority of them who will vote for them in this bi-election are not committed reform UK supporters.

[00:15:14]They're just people who think give Reform UK a chance, right? But those same voters will know that giving Reform UK a chance in the Makerfield constituency does not actually give Reform UK a chance because their candidate can stand up and say things they like in parliament can do nothing. Right? So that's maybe more of a concern at the general election. Whereas they do know that if they vote for Andy Bernham, he is the give them a chance candidate because he can actually take over the government uh maybe before the summer recess.

[00:15:59]So they're wrong, but uns are there to protect jobs, not create them. But if they create jobs, they create future members. And the jobs in the oil industry are going no matter what happens. And they should know that. They must know that. Unions don't like change uncertainty. I mean, there's a, you know, there's a certain caution that is understandable with anything. Like I don't want Andy Burnham to come in and just smash it up. And I don't think he's going to, by the way.

[00:16:29]Um, how about we just reject neopolitical economic structure? Well, whatever you mean by that. Um, whatever economic structure we have, if we just reject it, then um we what what happens? We just crash the economy. How how you going to get elected then?

[00:16:50]How do you get elected then? Because this is what I keep trying to say. There are there are things you can do to change economic policy significantly.

[00:17:02]But you've got to understand we're not an isolated economy. If you want an example of an isolated econ, even then it's not completely isolated, but a largely isolated economy. You're looking at North Korea, there are not many isolated economies, and even then it's not completely isolated.

[00:17:20]You we cannot decide the world economy's rules. That's why if we're going to make any serious progress on tax, you know, restoring the balance of taxation or anything like that, we're going to need international agreement. That's the only way to do it. I do like and I'm going to do a video on this tomorrow unless something mad happens. Uh some of my regular viewers will know that I am unsurprised um or you will you will be unsurprised, sorry, to hear that I am delighted that Andy Bernham is talking about land tax because that's the real wealth tax. All the other wealth taxes are clown taxes.

[00:17:56]They're not real. Land tax. That's the one. He's also talked about reforming property tax by which he'll mean council tax. Yes, we need to do that. Uh I mean for that he'll actually have some support from Rachel Ree because she's been wanting to do that anyway. Uh isn't Robert Kenya? So this is the reform UK candidate by the way. Some sort of Nazi fascist on Twitter. Deleted his account to hide it. Um some hope not hate did do some digging. Yeah, I mean the thing about Twitter is you can delete your account. You do not delete the internet.

[00:18:24]Um yeah, there's some stuff on there.

[00:18:27]Yeah, he's uh he is uh putting it politely. A bit of a wrong.

[00:18:34]A bit of a wrong. Hope Andy brings in a new comm's team.

[00:18:38]He will inevitably bring in a new comms team. Well, it will. Whether it'll be better or not, I don't know. Like again, I may do a discussion on this at some point. I was reading an article in the Guardian how Labour MPs and and and Burnham allies are going they're gushing over his campaign video go oh this is loads better than from Starman. It's like it's true it is but as a a strategy a social media strategy cannot take the form of the odd video that comes across more naturally than the stuff Star has come up with.

[00:19:09]Right? And I agree it is a lot better than the stuff Star has come up with.

[00:19:14]But um you cannot just go, "Oh, he's a natural. It'll be brilliant." No, it won't. If you don't have a strategy, it won't. It's and it really comes down to this. If you want to take social media seriously, and I keep pointing out PE, every year the numbers are going up.

[00:19:29]More and more people in this country are using social media to find out what's going on in politics. More people every year, Ofcom, do research on it every single year. They're an independent body. They're not um you know they're not in the pockets of social media platforms. You know they're independent body. They do research on it. Every single year the proportion of people getting their information on what's going on politically from social media goes up. So imagine where it's going to be. It's already high. Imagine where it's going to be in 2029 come the election. And the only way to get on top of it is a long-term strategy of pumping out content every single day to build that audience because it's really this simple. If you put out a really good video, then the impact of it, okay, if it's going to have a positive impact, you need two things. First of all, it needs to get to a lot of people. So, it needs to go viral. Secondly, um it has to be the sort of thing people will talk about. Right now, if you do that every now and then, then if you only put out a video every now and then, then people are only going to talk about the things you're presenting to them every now and then. Also, you don't have a large platform to launch it from. You know, the way social media works is the same for a government as it is someone like me. You know, if I look at some of the videos that have done well for me in the last week, my most viewed videos, I mean, the most viewed at the moment is like it's nearly 180,000 views. That did quite well that one. It's a really silly video as well. Anyway, 180,000 views, the my best performing video in the last week, right? If I'd have if I had not built up a channel, if I'd have just done YouTube for the first time five days ago and put that video out exactly as it is, it got next to it got a few hundred views, maybe a couple of thousand if I got lucky, right? You only get the views by building up an audience.

[00:21:39]And the other the I mean that's this there's two reasons to actively want to build up an audience with regular good content. The first is if you put out content every day that gets people talking, people will talk every day, which is what you want as the government. You want people talking about the things you want them to talk about and you want them to do it every day. Well, if you want them to do it every day, put stuff out every day. But also, you will build up an audience.

[00:22:03]You'll build up a following. And then when you put stuff out, they will share it with others. They will share it on other forums just like they do with mine. If you were to if you were to put Andy Burnham in a search engine, what whether it's Google, whether it's YouTube, whether it's Twitter or Tik Tok or whatever, if you put Andy Burnham in a search, you will mo the content you will get flagging up will be content about Andy Burnham that other people have done. What you want is for the top search content to be the content you've put out. And you will consistently get that if you put out regular good content. And I really so I hope that he gets people who understand that. But I am going to I am going to sound a note of caution. I don't think he will. And the reason I don't think he will is because there's absolutely no reason why Andy Burnham shouldn't have been using social media as mayor of Manchester. And he hasn't. Not very well.

[00:23:03]you know, he why why hasn't he spent the last 10 years building up on social media? He created his Twitter account in 2010. The following on it looks impressive by mortal standards, but it's really not by a of someone who's been in frontline politics for like as long as he has. It's really not impressive at all.

[00:23:25]But it will be better. He's a better communicator than Star. That is a given.

[00:23:31]um there is a chance that maybe just maybe he appreciates the importance of social media and decides to hire people who understand it. Not I don't I don't disparage the idea of hiring people who've worked in legacy media because you need to do that as well. But you've got to hire people who know how social media works. And and I will again say there are only three types of people.

[00:23:59]Three types of people qualified to say they understand social media. The first are people who have built up their own platform from scratch. No help from anyone. They didn't like become famous somewhere else and then just translate that. They did it from scratch.

[00:24:14]Therefore proving themselves. The second academics who've researched it and conducted interviews with hundreds if not thousands of content creators to distill what works from what doesn't.

[00:24:26]And the third type of person would be someone who works for a major social media platform behind the scenes on driving engagement because they will understand it from the other side.

[00:24:35]Right? Anyone you put in charge of your social media that doesn't cover one of those three backgrounds is not an expert and they shouldn't be running your social media. And yet almost everyone who runs someone's social media does not come from any of those backgrounds.

[00:24:54]Uh Star says he's going to make a field.

[00:24:55]Should he stay away? He probably should stay away. I actually thought it was quite funny. I think a few other people came to this conclusion when Kia Star said he'd absolutely go and campaign for Andy Burnham. I thought that's a pretty good way to help him lose, isn't it? Cuz it is it's weird. It is such a weird bi-election. Karma, of course. What I mean, he didn't go campaign in Gordon and Denton and he didn't go campaigning in, sorry, I forgot the name of it. The one that Sarah Poachin won. [ __ ] Where he should have done because they lost by like six votes. Um, but he'll go to Makerfield.

[00:25:30]Ah, yeah. It's a weird one, isn't it? He will go there and campaign for Andy Burnham knowing full well that he's about as welcome in an Andy Burnham campaign as um as Salmanella is in the kitchen. Right. Um but there we go. Say I miss the days when political parties had a concrete ideology to argue for and against these days like voting for your favorite management consultants. See there's a number of reasons for that.

[00:25:56]The first is that voters themselves are split into multiple blocks. So because voters are not as black and white as they used to be, neither can the arguments be. Um but there are yeah there's there's multiple reasons for that as as well.

[00:26:15]We also need proper press and social media reform regulations. We 100% do. We won't get them for the next election.

[00:26:20]Freedom of the press does not equate freedom to print [ __ ] No quite.

[00:26:24]Um but we I I do you know what? I'd be very surprised if he did.

[00:26:31]uh start move like kryptonite to burn for visits make a field surely I mean it wouldn't be like a kiss of death or anything because again the the the subtle undertone of the entire campaign is we're getting rid of that guy but only if you vote for Andy Bernham right you know if you vote for Robert Kenyon it's like it's literally the I don't think they can p print it on their campaign leaflets or anything but the message because what will happen is right if you're if you're a doorner you're for labor a labor door knocker that is if you're a Labour doorn knocker right you first of all will gauge what sort of person they are so you'll ask them various questions that allow you then to think how likely is this person to vote Labor and what is going to motivate them to do that and if what will motivate them to do it is they want rid of Karma because remember there's a real hatred for Kia Starma more than Labour then your line to them will be well if you vote Labor you get Andy Bernham as prime minister Karma is packing his bags, right?

[00:27:32]And if you vote reform, you get to keep K star. That will be the line. Vote reform, get Starmmer. The opposite of what they said during the local elections, right? It's as if Labor is scared of social media. I really couldn't tell you what it is. I don't know whether it's ignorance or whether there's a fear because there could be a fear. There is a fear of like because here's the thing, right? If you hire people who used to be an editor at some big newspaper or um it's a television broadcaster, BBC, ITV, whatever, right?

[00:28:04]They've got decades of experience and they're solid and you know what you're getting with them. If you hire a social media expert, by def Oh, wrong. Thank you. That was the constituency. Yeah, Sarah poaching. If you hire a social media expert, by definition, they've not been doing it. that YouTube remember is only just over 20 years old and it's only been massive for a bit over 15 years and then things like you know so if you think about the major social media platforms they've only really we've only really had social media for about 25 yearsish bit over and it's only really been big for the maybe the last 15 to 20 and ginormous in the last 5 to 10 years right so By definition, the people who've proved themselves on social media don't have this massive long CV.

[00:28:56]So, they're arguably more of a risk if you're going to let them do your content. You there could be a fear that, oh no, what if they do something that shits the bed? They're a bit too edgy, you know, and then they cut themselves on the edge, you know, that sort of thing. A bit like when, what was his face? PewDiePie tried to be a bit edgy and it backfired badly. Um there's been a few others do that as well, haven't they? Where where you know in the search for views, you know, they've sort of gone outside of their normal areas and it's and and it's turned out badly. There could be a fear in Labor that yeah, we don't want that to happen. But at the same time, you've got to come up with some way of doing it.

[00:29:38]Um uh I'd like to meet St. Hey, you're not that bad, mate. Decent human being, just politically dense. Well, he is, unfortunately. It was also politically uninterested.

[00:29:58]He he he just had no like it's one thing to dislike political intrigue and and the political sto skull duggery. I dislike it. It It's not helpful.

[00:30:12]But to decide that because you don't like it, you're not going to do it. It is honestly it's like in a workplace having to do paper. I hated paperwork.

[00:30:22]I did actually try and get out of it quite a lot. Uh I have to say I'm not a model person for this argument, but you have to do it. You know, there are things you have to do in your workplace that you you don't like doing and you don't think is valuable, but you have to do it. You just have to do it. And and it you know, and he just didn't seem to understand it. He didn't seem to get that as much as he dislikes it, it's an it's essential. I mean, he has won a massive majority and he's out on his ass within two years. It's mad. Absolutely mad.

[00:31:02]And people are saying like I saw the Guardian art an article because of this massive turnover of prime ministers were getting you know this is is going to be oh Jesus what are we talking about now so 10 years ago David Cameron was still prime minister right so David Cameron Theresa May Boris Johnson Liz Truss Richy K so if if um Andy Bernham becomes prime minister before the 10th anniversary of Theresa May becoming prime minister which I think is reasonable reasonably likely we're going to have a seventh prime minister in the space of a decade that is a hell of a turnover right and you know the guardian writing is Britain just ungovernable is it because the political the political and economic situation in Britain means that it's just impossible for anyone to cope with I'm not going to say that's not the case, but what I am going to say is the turnover of prime ministers is not evidence for the case. Right? David Cameron just left. Right? He could have stayed on. He didn't. He didn't want to deal with Brexit. Theresa May wasn't a political idiot, but she did make a very serious political mistake.

[00:32:24]Boris Johnson was politically lazy. He was just laz. He knows how to campaign.

[00:32:29]In fact, Boris John, it's like I said of Mweeney. Mweeney knows how to campaign, doesn't know politics. Boris Johnson very like it. Knows how to campaign, not so good at politics, but also very lazy.

[00:32:40]Right? So Boris Johnson's fall from grace was because ultimately he was a lazy politician. Liz Truss because she was an economic, she wasn't a political idiot, but she was an economic idiot.

[00:32:53]So she cocked it up like not Rishi's sonak because he was he was a political idiot and he didn't do anything. He did the winds of framework. That was the only thing of note he did. And then Kia Starama another political idiot. Like we've had a turnover because we've had prime ministers who do not take politics seriously. They did not sit like Theresa May thought she could get this compromise deal through um without opposition support like at the point at which Theresa May if we go back to I'm sorry to keep legislating for the past but Theresa May had two choices to get Brexit done right she could either come up with a deal that would have all of her MPs on board or she could get a deal through with opposition support. Now, given that she went for the general election in 2017, she had a majority. So, she thought in 2017, reasonably thought as well, she had evidence that she could boost that majority. That told her she didn't think she could get a deal that would that would satisfy the whole of her party, right?

[00:34:06]But she tried it anyway. And then when she actually lost her majority, she continued with the same strategy. Well, that's just political stupidity.

[00:34:14]She basically was determined that she wasn't going to get a deal through with the opposition because that might have split her party right at that point.

[00:34:26]She should have known she was sunk because she never from the start believed that she could get a deal that would that would have majority support from her party without a much bigger majority.

[00:34:37]So that was political stupidity on her part. Even though of those prime ministers we burned through, she was probably the least politically stupid.

[00:34:46]Boris Johnson was not politically clever. He was just a good campaigner.

[00:34:49]He's a good bullshitter. Put him to the test. All falls apart because he's fundamentally lazy. Didn't do anything.

[00:34:55]Actually, literally like Richie Sunak achieved more than Boris Johnson.

[00:35:00]Then you've got um then Liz Truss of course um an economic idiot. Rishi Sunnak a political idiot. Karma a political idiot. Like we haven't in that last 10 years had a politician who understands politics since David Cameron did. That's why he ran away because he he understood exactly what was going to happen. He didn't want any part of it.

[00:35:21]Right? So he's the only he's the only political beast we've had as prime minister. That's why we've got a high turnover. It's not because the country is ungovernable. The country might be ungovernable. I'm not saying it's not.

[00:35:34]It might well be that Andy Bernham doesn't even last till the next election. He blows it because it might be that the country is genuinely ungovernable, but we haven't had it put to the test is my argument because the last prime minister we have had that was politically canny was David Cameron. And even he I mean that's not the highest bar for a political genius, is it? Let's be honest.

[00:35:58]Um Adam there saying maybe Brexit has made us less governable. It's certainly made us less governable. Nothing's been possible since without pissing off roughly half the country. Although scales tip further in Joan's favor each day. Well, even then the problem is of course when people say things like that you you like if you think about it when people say things like oh yeah I mean if Labor if Labour went full rejoined they might only lose about 10% of their voters.

[00:36:28]It's like yeah that's enough to lose you the election mate. You need all of them.

[00:36:31]Labour didn't exactly get a lot of voters last time. Let's be honest.

[00:36:37]Uh PPE degree holders should be banned from parliament. So no, I don't agree with that. I mean, at the end of the day, it is it's the closest thing you'll get to a professional qualification for a politician. But I dislike the fact that so many do it because it encourages group think. And I said this before the election. I said, I worry about the sheer number of MPs that have a a degree in PPE from Oxford. It's all from the same bloody university as well. So, you talk by the same bloody people and um sorry, did I say people? I meant fossils. And um you've got um you've you just got this terrible group think at play which is no good at all.

[00:37:18]Pagan saying, "I'm interested to see if Bernham develops actual policy on re-industrialization. If he does, what it could be? What do I reckon?" I reckon Andy Burnham cannot he he he's talking a good game on we need to change everything. It's a glamour. It's an illusion. He can't change everything. He He will have to do some a couple of things that look big. Land tax could be a really good one because it's the sort of thing I mean I've been banging on about it for God knows how long and economists have been banging on about it since the days of Queen Victoria for Christ's sake. But um it's and the early days of Queen Victoria that I may I may add. Um it's so that could be a big thing. But in terms of like put it this way, so let's say Andy Bernham wins and he's prime minister by summer recess, right? In a year's time, when we're looking back, when we're looking back at a year of an Andy Burnham government, I am going to bet we're not going to say he changed an awful lot because you can't like government is an oil tanker, not a speedboat. You can't just fling it around. Even if he thought loads of things were wrong, he's going to have to stick with them anyway. There are some things he can genuinely change, right?

[00:38:38]Um but saying you say that David Cameron wasn't a political idiot but he could have stopped Brexit. No but he was a political coward though he didn't have the backbone to tell like what he should have done what David Cameron should have done was he should have told his MPs sit down and shut up or do you want Ed Miller banned as prime minister and then when he won that 2015 election if they' have still banged on even better for him. even better because he could have then said sit down and shut up or you'll end up with Jeremy Corbyn as prime minister. He could have threatened Labour with them because at the time you know they had pretty leftwing in one case very leftwing leaders and he just he didn't have the he didn't have the backbone basically David Cameron to me seems like someone who's not good at conflict. Same with Boris Johnson.

[00:39:30]Apparently according to Rory Stewart Boris Johnson was very bad at conflict.

[00:39:33]if you went in like all bristling, he would just calm you down and send you away thinking he'd agreed with everything you said. So they had these weak leaders, but in the case of Johnson, it made no difference because he's fundamentally lazy. But David Cameron was just fundamentally weak. He he didn't know how to deal with conflict.

[00:39:51]He did. One thing he probably the one probably blind spot in his political understanding was particularly conservative MPs. Conservative like why is it that conservative MPs rever Winston Churchill or Margaret Thatcher, right? Why? Because they were absolute bastards in their way. I mean, in Winston Churchill's case, it came in useful in the Second World War, but ultimately they were bastards who would who would shout if you disagreed with them, they would sit you down good and hard. They they they were not consensus politicians.

[00:40:29]Even though Winston Churchill, you could argue, did the most consensus thing possible and have a government of national unity, but you know, that was just again good politics. Um, David Cameron just lacked he and I said this of Richishi Sunak actually I mean I wasn't doing that channel with in the days of David Cameron I'd have said the same thing but I said the same thing of Rishi sonak Richishy Sonak should have understood that ultimately what conservatives in particular respond to is a is what they would call a strong leader by which they mean a right bastard who tells them to sit down and shut the f up right and that's what he should have done like when Rishi remember when Rishi first became became prime minister, right? First of all, he was the third prime minister in as many months, right? Then a big early test for him. The conservatives had promised to abolish no fault evictions and then Sunak backed down because of pressure from his own MPs or of course landlords.

[00:41:23]He shouldn't have done. He should have used that as a as a to lay down his authority because imagine what would have happened, right? First of all, it would have gone through anyway because Labour would have voted in favor of it.

[00:41:34]So would the Lib Dems. So would everyone basically. Um so it would have gone through if Sun could have backed it but he could have said to his MPs if this has to go through based on opposition votes you are just helping Labour win the next election. He should have said I'm not backing down. We promise to do this and we're going to do it. And he should have said to them and another thing in order for us to win the next election we're going to have to do things a bit different. You're not going to like it but it's only till the election. Don't worry I'm going to change it all back.

[00:42:04]right? Uh were basically not going to be Tory for a year or so. And and he could have really laid down the law on them because what were they going to do?

[00:42:12]Depose him, have a fourth prime minister in as many months? No. As soon as he won that election as leader because they'd already gone through a couple, they wouldn't dare bring him down. At that point, Riches Sunonnak was the most powerful leader the Conservatives had had in a long time. He just didn't know it. He wasn't aware of his own power. A bit like the Lib Dems in coalition. They just didn't understand how strong a position they were in.

[00:42:40]But anyway, um off topic appears Ukraine using drones and land advances cut off the Russian land bridge that supplies Crimea. I saw something about that. I did want to check that a bit more just to make sure it's not more of this sort of um overly optimistic news. Uh we will see. But I mean Crimea I mean really I mean Putin just strategically has has has been a disaster area of late. He could actually with his maximist demands end up losing everything. But there we go. Why is it not called Maker or Breakerfield? Well it sort of is in the witty headlines, isn't it? Um you know make a field or break a field.

[00:43:23]Always said the tour is a sedo massarchist. It's because they all went to private school or there's a high proportion go to private school. You know, a a private school ultimately is a place like they're not really schools.

[00:43:35]If I was if I was in government, first thing I or if I had the power, if I was prime minister or education secretary, first thing I would do is say that all private schools are going to have offstead inspections for safeguarding purposes, right? Because they should absolutely because they are they are child abuse farms. They, you know, a lot of private schools, particularly the big famous ones that churn out like the the captains of industry and politics and all the rest of it. They're basically they're they're like army training camps but for children. When you like, you know, you go into the army, you go into the military, you expect a certain amount of like reprogramming for discipline purposes, right?

[00:44:15]But it's like you're doing it on children where their brain's still growing. Um, it's really not good. Do I think Sonac could have won the election?

[00:44:22]It wasn't. It wasn't likely after Liz Truss. It really was up against it. But it wasn't impossible, but they didn't have to lose as badly as they lost either.

[00:44:33]Labour, remember, were not running a big hype campaign. Now, you could argue if Russia's son could have played a better game, he might have forced Labour to go into hype a bit more. So, maybe we' have had a better campaign from Labour as well. Who knows? But he he did everything wrong. He came out with those five promises. These are my five promises to you. Oh, that sounds good.

[00:44:54]And then he promised a load of things like falling waiting lists when his policies was to make waiting lists go up. Stop the boats when he had no intention of stopping the boats. This this was stupid. This is politically stupid. If you're going to like this was this was his Edstone only. At least Ed Milliband intended to actually honor those promises and and it was and he and he was constantly trying to molly coddle a fracturous party. His MPs were constantly at odds with each other. He they needed someone to just be a right bastard to them. Right. For example, another early test he failed the privileges committee. Rishi Sunak said we do not dispar into Boris Johnson just to be clear. We do not disparage the the privileges committee. The first time a Tory MP, I can't remember who it was, it was Naen Doris or Jacob Reesem or someone, I can't remember. It doesn't matter. The first time a Tory MP uh disparaged the privileges committee, he should have removed the whip from and said, "You're not getting it back.

[00:45:56]That's it. You might as well defect to Brexit Party Reform UK because you're not coming back into this party while I'm the leader." He should have like he had the power to properly clamp down on them. Be a right bastard. He had multiple opportunities to say the only the only type of leader you respond to that you unite behind is a right bastard. The only reason they backed Margaret Thatcher for as long as they did because she did like they they idolize her these days. They don't people keep forgetting she brought them two bloody recessions.

[00:46:30]two recessions in a ve at the time a much more misogynistic Tory party. They backed a female leader who gave him two recessions. Why? Because they were afraid she had a brick in her handbag and she was going to clout them over the head with it. That's why if he kicked out Liz Truss of the party would have gone well with the public, reduced the attacks from Labor about her. Um possibly he would have needed a reason though I don't think she really gave a reason for to do so.

[00:46:58]Um uh private schools don't have to employ qualified teacher. I got that badly wrong. They they don't laws unto themselves in many ways. In fact, without offspectors, they're actually laws unto themselves. They don't have to deliver the curriculum. They can do what they like. Um obviously, they could do their own qualifications. No one would like them. So, to get them through GCES and A levels, they have to teach, you know, they do have to teach the curriculum, but they're not bound legally by it.

[00:47:26]Uh Carl, they're saying, "Oh, yeah. Some of the minor abuse I suffer at my public stroke private school have lasted a lifetime." Yeah, they they they they are they're incredibly abusive. I first thing I would do in government was say send offstead inspectors into every single one on say you can't like it can't be a full offstead inspection like you'd get for a state school because then they are you delivering on the curriculum. They don't have to. And I wouldn't change that. I'd be fine with that. I'd go that's fine. you do what you want. Um, but on safeguarding ground, I would I would insist on inspections on safeguarding grounds.

[00:48:04]And if they think VAT on school fees is a problem for them, wait till they add me in charge. But I'm not going to be in charge, so it's fine.

[00:48:12]Uh, Sun might have worried about Morgan Nadine fulminating the press. Who gives a [ __ ] The press like again, political stupidity. come the election, who are the press going to if if he could get the Conservatives into a realistic prospect to win, who are the press going to back? Conservatives.

[00:48:32]Yeah, conservatives. The alternatives labor saying Thatch was saved by the Falcons war. I polling political scientists are not sure about that. You know, they're not convinced. A lot of people think so.

[00:48:46]It is true. She was stunningly unpopular before it and she became popular through it, but it also seemed the impacts of that had worn off by the election. Now, you could argue it gave a bit of a reset, but ultimately the biggest bonus for for Margaret Thatcher in 1983 was ultimately Labour.

[00:49:06]They were it was like they were trying to lose the election.

[00:49:10]It was like they got pissed up and said, and it's like they suddenly thought they were in the Monster Raven Looney Party, right? What's the dumbest [ __ ] we can put in a manifesto?

[00:49:21]Only it lacks the humor. It was just everything designed to piss off important voters and appeal to their very, very, very narrow base.

[00:49:40]Uh Bernie's a cleft stick. He can either officially approve of Brexit or he's not he doesn't approve of Brexit. He's not made any indication of that. Or of moving towards the EU. Either way, he'll piss off Makerfield or the nation. He he has not given any indication that Brexit is here to stay merely that he's not moving towards EU membership.

[00:50:01]What will be interesting is what he will do in terms of the closer arrangements with the EU because it needs major that is one thing that Karma has thrown his shoulder behind.

[00:50:17]Will Burnham he might not Burnham like it's one of in terms of the two big things Brexit and electoral reform. Bernham is more openly in favor of electoral reform than Starmer. So you're more likely to get it with Burnham, but he is less openly pro-EU. In fact, he's been anti-EU at times for strategic purposes, I think. I don't think he's ever genuinely been anti-EU, but he has talked the the game.

[00:50:48]But Burnham is less pro-EU than Star. So what we might get, we might actually get moves towards the EU stalling a bit. We will we will see. Who knows? Again, he may be seized of the notion that it is the only game in town for for getting the economy moving. We'll see.

[00:51:10]Because although Burnham could reform some taxes to get some more readies for spending, ultimately economic news is really important as well. And and and that's not based on how much money the government's got coming in.

[00:51:28]It was the SDB Labor split that helped Thatcher. That certainly did as well, but again, why was that? You have to ask yourself why why it did split.

[00:51:44]Um, what is this single market for goods? It's a non-starter. So, one thing that Stararma was keen on was can we get into the single market but just for goods? In other words, single market for goods, no freedom of movement. It's a non-starter. It's a non-starter for two reasons. The first is like how can you have how can you have a single market for goods without a single market for people? Because who delivers the goods?

[00:52:11]People.

[00:52:13]Like how like I mean you just think about it at a micro level. You've got a guy in a lorry delivering the goods across the trade border, right? If you're in the single market for goods, that means there's no checks at that border, right?

[00:52:29]So does that so that means you don't check the person in the lorry as well.

[00:52:32]But if you but if you do have to check them because you don't have freedom of movement then you are check you have checks at the trade border. It's like it's mad it's a non-starter just from a practical point of view but it's also a non-starter politically because what the EU the in order to make it work you would have to do you know how the EU bent over backwards to make the Northern Ireland situation work. They completely bent over backwards. They had to create completely new rules and and like ignore a few gaping holes and stuff like that.

[00:53:04]So, you know, just for the sake of of peace, excuse me, ultimately. So, they were very accommodating.

[00:53:12]You'd be expecting them to do that for the for the the whole of Britain, which is a way bigger market than Northern Ireland. Uh it's a huge market by European standards.

[00:53:23]And the problem then becomes if it looks like we are getting a good trade like a really good trade deal but without the political alignment or freedom of movement or any of the other like friction issues in the EU then other countries in the EU might start to want something similar and you weaken the EU right you fundamentally weaken the EU so politically it's a non-starter as well so it's it's probably not even be worth doing a video on it. I may or may not if I depend on what happens in the next week. But it really is a non-starter. There's absolutely zero chance that the EU would ever and I could have told them. I don't even know why Labour pushed it. I could have told them that just from a practical point of view, from a political point of view, the the EU have ne the only reason the EU are being much more accommodating with us now than they would have been, you know, five years ago is for two reasons. First of all, Donald Trump.

[00:54:23]Second of all, the fear was that if the UK seemed to be succeeding outside the EU, other countries might go, "Well, what's the point of the EU, right?" Um, that then weakens the whole of Europe. Um whereas now they're satisfied that it was Brexit was such a [ __ ] show. No one else like even the pro-rexit they weren't Brexit parties of course in their own countries but the the parties that were in favor of leaving the EU in different European countries have now decided that's not their policy after all you know in Italy in France in Netherlands and Belgium like the these parties are no longer wanting to their country to leave the EU because it's like yeah that would just cost us the election. any European country that tries to run an election on leaving the EU would just lose it. Um, so Brexit has been such a [ __ ] show, but there's no point in them going, "Yeah, you can just have what you want." Because then you turn it from a [ __ ] show, don't you?

[00:55:21]Wouldn't do it. Be mad.

[00:55:24]Uh, exactly what is supposed to be the point of detentions. Well, at school, well, you don't have a lot of power as a teacher. Let's be honest, do you? At the end of the day, kids uh if they won't behave themselves like at work, what keeps you disciplined at work? You lose your job, right? What are you gonna do with a kid who misbehaves at school?

[00:55:43]There's really not a lot you can do. So, you have to inflict on them more school.

[00:55:47]That's the punishment. And it's a [ __ ] punishment as well. Um but that is the point of it. It's to inflict a it's it's because you know that you can't you can't like withdraw school as a punishment. You can withdraw employment from someone as a punishment. You can't withdraw school from them because if they're not behaving, it's probably a good bet they don't like school. Um so what do you do? You you inflict more school on them.

[00:56:17]I mean, I had the idea for the ratinfested urine soaked pit, but my my head of department told me that it was against human rights, so I couldn't do it.

[00:56:29]That would have been my solution, but you're not allowed apparently. Human rights.

[00:56:39]Oh, Star was called on TNT Sports to make next Saturday's Champions League fans in Arsenal, Paris free to wear.

[00:56:45]might do something good after all. Uh, only if they pay any attention to him.

[00:56:51]Only if they pay any attention to it.

[00:56:53]And even then, do you know what? No one will give him any credit for it if it works.

[00:56:58]I didn't even know about it till you tell me. I'd not even seen it reported.

[00:57:04]Uh, suddenly brings to mind Pink Floyd's the wall song. See, see, I do like a bit of Pink Floyd, but that's not a good song.

[00:57:11]No, we could have done without a song like that. Thank you very much.

[00:57:15]Fortunately, by the time I was a teacher, no kid had heard of that song.

[00:57:19]But they had other things to wind us up with.

[00:57:32]Uh people are now reminiscing about the way school was now years ago. Uh detention surely also a punishment for the teachers. It is a bit. But you you you look at it as a loss leader. If it can make them behave themselves a bit better, you have an easier time in the classroom. And ultimately, you go into teaching because you want kids to learn, don't you? Uh it's a bit of a problem if you've got kids who just wreck it for everyone.

[00:58:00]My solution would be cattle prod. Yeah, I think you'll fall foul of the same human rights laws. Possibly other laws as well, if I'm honest. I mean, my pit idea wasn't technically assault if they went involuntarily. If you had to push them in, maybe um uh heard recently there are some primary teachers having to change nappers of children that are old enough to be in school, but not toilet training in Scotland would ask how. Um, yeah, it it is it is known.

[00:58:37]Ratinfested pit sounds like the school I went to. Okay.

[00:58:41]I mean, the the it's no there's no point if the school is the ratinfested pit. It would only work if the school was nice.

[00:58:50]It's like a choice. Do you want to be in the nice classroom or do you want to be in the in the pit? Um cuz the problem with isol I mean I when I was a teacher like there would be naughty kids that would try they would try to be naughty to get me to send them to isolation.

[00:59:06]So sometimes you were caught between a rock and a hard place. If you sent them to isolation you might then be able to teach the rest of the class but you're encouraging them to carry out that behavior because they got what they wanted. And if you didn't, you were hoping that maybe they wouldn't try it on as long as you they were assured you would not send them to isol because the problem with isolation is it's like being in a classroom only nice and no one's trying to make you learn.

[00:59:32]So that's the problem in a lot of schools. The isolation experience for some kids is better than being in the classroom. Whereas what you need, it's not a deterrent basically. So what you need is a deterrent, but it's very difficult because most deterrents are illegal. I'm not I'm not advocating corporal punishment, by the way. That was, you know, that never should have been allowed. You don't you don't teach kids to be moral by teaching them that if someone bigger than you don't like what you do, you can beat them. I I don't see that as being a useful thing.

[01:00:01]But nonetheless, there is no effective deterrent in schools.

[01:00:07]But anyway, um Oh, Vom saying, "I got choked by two separate teachers. I can't blame them."

[01:00:13]Well, you can blame them. You're not supposed to do it. Um, it's not allowed these days. Although I do I do know that it carried on for a long time after it wasn't allowed, but it never should have been allowed again. It's not a good lesson to teach people that Mike makes right. It's how you end up with people like Donald Trump running things and people voting for someone like Donald Trump. You know these people that will say, "Oh, I was beaten as a child. It never did me any harm." And it's like, it clearly did. If you think beating a child is a way to instill any sort of lessons, it clearly did do you harm.

[01:00:47]But anyway, I was running down the corridor. My science teacher stuck his arm out at neck high. Ended up flat on my back.

[01:00:54]Good lad.

[01:00:57]Quite right, too.

[01:01:00]Although you can't do that these days either. Anyway, right, we'll leave it there. Thanks for coming on everyone.

[01:01:05]Have a great rest of evening and until next time, I'll see you later.