Where Does It Go? | Meteo Mundo | Caribbean Weather Forecast in 4K

[00:00:00]Tropical Storm Bertha has made landfall in Southeast Louisiana. What impacts could it still bring to the Gulf Coast as it moves west in the coming days? Hi friends, Rusty back here at Media Mundo.

[00:00:10]We are your home for Caribbean weather and tropical updates and it's great to see you on this Wednesday. We'll get started with the latest on Bertha which did make landfall a little bit earlier this afternoon just east of the New Orleans area, a place called the Biloxi State Wildlife Management Area. Now, I know you're going to say, "Hey Rusty, the city of Biloxi is located in South Mississippi." It is, but that's the name of the of the Wildlife Management Area just east of New Orleans right over Bay Boudreau making landfall with winds of around 50 miles an hour. Currently, the winds are 45, pressure's up to 1,000 millibars moving to the west-northwest at 7 miles an hour. Tropical storm conditions are beginning to expand across this area. The numbers that you see are wind gusts in miles an hour at the present time. I'm going to bring on our what we call sandwich product here.

[00:00:56]It's the visible and infrared composite together. And the one thing that you're going to notice here is that we don't have a lot of heavy rain north of the center of circulation. All the big thunderstorms and even the gustiest winds are well south and west of the center. So, I'm more concerned about some of the wind impacts and potential storm surge from the Alabama-Florida into south-central sides of coastal Louisiana. We'll talk about that in a minute. If you don't know, I have access to buoy and oil platform data here in the channel is something you're not going to get everywhere. And the strongest winds have been in those offshore oil platforms. 50, even close to 60 mile an hour wind gust. And look at that huge ball of lightning. So, this is a very sheared storm. Bertha has been that case the entire time where the strongest winds and the heaviest rain has been south of the center and that means we continue to see that activity offshore. Let me bring on the latest radar data and I'll drop off the satellite data and you'll see what I'm talking about. Look at the paltry bands that are spiraling in western panhandle of Florida, Alabama, coastal Mississippi, southeast Louisiana. Not a lot in the way of heavy rain. Squalling additions again have kicked up there. Again, 30-40 mph winds sustained from time to time with some higher gusts in this area, but right now nothing more than that. We look at the advisories that are into play, you're going to notice that the only flood advisories right now are going to be for the coastal northern areas of Lake Pontchartrain. That's it. So, thankfully right now we've avoided the inundation of water for inland areas and inland river flooding. Still could see some elevated conditions as far as storm surge goes and areas of higher tide.

[00:02:38]That's going to be the next weather headline here is just what are the potential impacts in this area now and then what could be happening as we go a little bit farther in time down the road. Well, let's look at the storm surge potential impacts for you guys right now. A 1-3 ft storm surge is possible all the way from the Alabama-Florida border west, Lake Pontchartrain, New Orleans, Grand Isle, back towards Morgan City, Lake Charles, and as far west as Port Bolivar and the upper coast of Texas, including the Galveston Bay area.

[00:03:08]Now, look, most of this area can handle 1-3 ft storm surge, all right? If we get on the higher side of that combined with a higher tide, it could cause some inundation in coastal areas. Obviously, keep very abreast of the situation in your area, but right now 1-3 ft storm surge across this area is likely to be a decent situation. We're not going to have to worry about too much of an inundation as far as water goes. When I go back over to the satellite imagery here, I'm going to pull that back up.

[00:03:34]Now, I don't want to talk about what could be happening down the road here.

[00:03:37]I'm going to switch over real quick uh to just the uh visible satellite imagery.

[00:03:42]Just get rid of some of that other data so you guys can clearly see things and then even go back over to the infrared.

[00:03:47]The main reason I want to switch over to this, guys, is I want to talk about what I expect as far as track goes and what that could mean from here. So, I'm going to pull on the forecast models. These are your tropical models. Now, the biggest question is going to be does the center of circulation get back into the open waters of the Northwest Gulf or does it stay over land? Because that is going to be the biggest difference as to whether there are going to be more tropical storm potential impacts to the upper coast of Texas. Most of the computer models and the track from the Hurricane Center keep Bertha's center inland far enough into Louisiana where this continues to weaken and ultimately falls apart before it gets to places like Beaumont and Galveston and Houston.

[00:04:30]Still going to be some wind and rain impacts there, but the southern models that get it offshore a little bit could try to re-intensify Bertha just a bit.

[00:04:39]But, the official track from the Hurricane Center and the official intensity forecast has Bertha basically becoming a depression right over Lake Charles and then beginning to lose even more strength as it heads towards Houston. But, again, there is a tropical storm watch as far down the coastline as Sargent. Now, the interesting thing is we're going to watch out for this complex of hefty clouds and thunderstorms. I'm going to back on the lightning data. That's a good ball of thunderstorm activity that could be well south of the center, but right now it's detached from that true center of circulation. So, the question is going to be can this get back over water?

[00:05:15]Well, if most of the models say no or at least it doesn't have a regeneration of the storm if it were to get back offshore. I want to get into the models right now. This is a really slow creeping look at the European model, okay? This is the deterministic model. You can clearly see the center hugging the coastline here as you get back down towards Morgan City, potentially just offshore, maybe gaining a little bit of strength as pressures drop just slightly, but never fully reorganizes. Too much of the storm on the northern side is over land ingesting too dry of air and it falls apart as it gets just east of Houston. This is very much in line with what the Hurricane Center's thinking is over the next 48 to 72 hours. When we look at the HWRF model sustained winds, it's about the same track as the European model, but just want to show you what the winds could be sustained. And again, 30, 40, maybe 45 mph winds, but the wind field expands and it begins to fall apart as well as it heads towards the Texas coast. Now, when a system kind of blows up, if you will, like this, the wind field elongates, so more area south could feel some fresh winds, but you're just not going to have the strong concentration of tropical storm force winds in southwest Louisiana and the coastal areas of Texas like we're seeing right now in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the western panhandle of Florida.

[00:06:40]Now, look, seems like there's always an outlier model. We looked at the HMON yesterday, which was a much stronger model. It's the HAFS-A that has the strongest storm. It absolutely blows the storm back up as it gets back into the offshore waters and has a much more potent storm trying to make landfall south of the Galveston Bay area as we get into Thursday afternoon and evening.

[00:07:01]At this point in time, uh that is the outlier model and nothing else really supports it. I'm always going to show you everything here on the channel. So, we'll have to continue to monitor the situation, but not expecting, at least for now, the storm to get back off shore and to regenerate if it does so.

[00:07:18]>> [snorts] >> Totals, again, rainfall weight wise are likely to be quite paltry in most areas with, again, the European model showing the heaviest rain well off of the Louisiana coastline and then, again, falling apart before it gets to uh portions of Texas. But, again, when I go back over to our live information hub at the bottom of your screen, you'll see a lot of that information where we could still have maybe up to a half foot of rain in some areas, but we're not likely to see the big rainfall totals for most of this area.

[00:07:47]We'll wrap up a look at this right now with a look at the H triple R model.

[00:07:53]It's the high resolution rapid refresh.

[00:07:55]So, I just want to show you what the absolute latest model that we have. This is an hourly updated model is showing from Tropical Storm Bertha. Well, what you notice is a very sloppy system that does stretch out almost comes a trough elongated from southwest to northeast before it gets to coastal sides of Texas. So, the H triple R model, high resolution model here in North America does have the storm also falling apart.

[00:08:23]So, there is the one outlier model, the H the H have the the the HASS-A, which makes it strong and regenerates it.

[00:08:31]Everyone else though keeps it fairly weak. So, that is the given situation right now with Bertha. Again, expecting there to be some wind impacts, expecting there to be some storm surge impacts, but overall a lot of this area is likely to avoid the biggest situation. Now, I always want to hear from you guys. Let me know in the comment section below if you guys live in this area, what's been happening in your area as well. I appreciate all of that information.

[00:08:53]Again, one more look at the situation right now as we have had landfall in southeast Louisiana. You can clearly see on the high resolution visible satellite imagery.

[00:09:03]Again, good 50 to 55 mph winds, fairly impressive. We're going to see the winds continue to increase in this area for the rest of our Wednesday. Strongest winds though are still offshore with the best opportunity for some of the strongest rainfall totals and the highest rainfall totals as well. Okay, my friends, we're going to get into the rest of the forecast and as we do so, thanks for taking a quick second hitting that like button and subscribing to the channel if you haven't already.

[00:09:27]Again, you're going to get a lot of information here on the channel. The information help at the bottom of your screen, five-day forecast and marine interest coming up as well. Of course, we cover all of the Caribbean and the Bahamas and any tropical interest across the Atlantic as well. I got to tell you something. For the rest of our area on this Wednesday, it's a relatively quiet forecast. We've been watching this trough beginning to work its way into portions of the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas. And this has been our best chance for showers and storms for today.

[00:09:57]You can see that mid-level spin in some of the moisture beginning to billow up with that. So, it's a couple of scattered showers and storms right now over Grand Turk and the Caicos, Inagua, Mayaguana back down towards the Acklins, up the road towards Exuma, and Long Island, and Rum Cay, and San Salvador, all with opportunities for some storms.

[00:10:15]And this is beginning to spiral farther north. And so, as we go farther into time, especially on our Thursday, expecting some storm chances for places like excuse me, Eleuthera up towards New Providence and Andros, the Abacos, Grand Bahama, Walker's Cay, Florida back into a little bit of that forecast as well.

[00:10:35]And even up the road towards Bermuda could see a few of these thunderstorms elongate themselves to the north. But, certainly a feature to monitor over the next 24 to 48 hours. Healthy lightning strikes out of this. Well over 1,500 lightning strikes in just a 15-minute time frame. So, you live in the islands, look off towards your east, and they're beginning to spiral in. The opportunity for some healthier thunderstorm activity here. Start to see a few thunderstorms also develop over portions of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico and the US and British Virgin Islands as well. You can see those beginning to fire up here. Let me bring back on our live lightning data so you guys can see that. And again, a few lightning strikes that have been really clustered on the northwest sides of Puerto Rico on this Wednesday towards the Aguadilla area, Isabella, maybe as far east as Arecibo, San Sebastian to the south and to the east. Gusty winds on the eastern side of the island trying to billow up a couple of thunderstorms as well off the coastal areas like Vieques and Culebra at the hour. St. Thomas has picked up a fresh wind out of some of these uh thunderstorms in the adjacent areas. And again, just better storm chances for today. Still localized in fashion by some really heavy downpours from time to time. Same situation over interior sections of the Dominican Republic trying to lift north to the Samaná Peninsula, so north of Santo Domingo, San Pedro de Macorís headed up towards the Samaná Peninsula.

[00:11:53]Place like Puerto Plata could see an isolated thunderstorm later today. Few thunderstorms across the peninsula of Haiti at the hour towards La Romana.

[00:12:00]Couple of cooling thunderstorms there.

[00:12:02]We're beginning to see a few thunderstorms develop over southern sides of Jamaica, so Westmoreland, St. Elizabeth, Manchester parishes back towards Clarendon. By the way, an interesting flip flop for today, it is the northern coastal areas with a strong wave and large wind advisory for Jamaica for today. It's not the southern offshore waters, Pedro Maroa Banks, better, stronger, fresher winds along the northern coastline. But again, some thunderstorm activity here towards Mandeville, May Pen, Treasure Beach, Black River, Santa Cruz. If you live in this area, let me know the comments section below if you've caught some of those thunderstorms on this Wednesday.

[00:12:35]It's drier farther to the west, not expecting any rain for the most part here towards the Cayman Islands. Before we go farther west, I'll swing back over towards the east. Fairly quiet east of the Virgin Islands for today. We have not had any marine issues across this area, and it's been a relatively dry forecast. Enjoy it. Anguilla, St. Bart, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Kitts and Nevis, Antigua, Barbuda, a couple of isolated showers especially from St. Kitts north, St. Bart, St. Martin.

[00:13:03]Anguilla could have a passing shower.

[00:13:05]You notice that there is still convergence of winds here. Low level winds out of the east, mid level winds out of the north into the west producing a few showers there. You get south of there though, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, little bit of haze in the sky, nothing too bad. St. Lucia, Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines looking pretty good including Carriacou, the Bequia areas. Grenada, TNT, not that bad. Fresh winds, dry conditions over Willemstad, Curacao, and over towards Oranjestad, Aruba, 36 mph wind there.

[00:13:36]And then again, our Central American gyre is fairly active over Panama and Costa Rica, but it dries out fairly quickly the farther north that you go.

[00:13:43]Not a lot of rain today in Nicaragua, up towards Honduras. Fresh winds over La Ceiba and the Bay Islands, but everywhere else, fairly quiet here. Can rule out a couple of showers over Quintana Roo, but not expecting lot much as we move through the remainder of the afternoon hours. All right, now we're going to switch over to our marine interests. Now you're going to get the marine forecast over the next couple of days for over 25 areas. We're going to start off the next weather headline with the tropical outlook outside of what's happening with Bertha. I will begin in the East Pacific. Look guys, it's going gangbusters. You already have your sixth named storm of the East Pacific season, Fausto. We already have another area that is likely to develop in the coming days off of the uh western coastline of Central America. I'll be monitoring this for portions of the Pacific coast of Mexico. This one could try make a little bit closer approach just west of Acapulco down the road, but we'll see how that plays out. Otherwise again, we're quiet in the Caribbean. This is a mid-level spin. It is going to bring some rain chances to the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos in the next 48 hours, but it's not going to develop tropically. Elsewhere, the Atlantic basin is quiet outside of another stronger tropical wave just moving off of the West African coast right now.

[00:14:56]I'll be monitoring that one. We're starting to get into the time of the year where there can be some development with those, but at this point in time, doesn't look like we're going to have anything too concerning to worry about.

[00:15:05]So how about the rain outlook? Who's going to get some showers and storms across the area over the next 5 days?

[00:15:10]Well, let's bring that up for you guys right now. Going to take me just 1 second to switch on models here to bring back up our uh global model and then get into that.

[00:15:20]So again, always going to be monitoring what's happening with Bertha for the some of the storm surge and wind impacts. Other areas of some heavier rain likely to develop through portions of Central America and lifting north.

[00:15:31]Again, as the Central American gyre kicks off this next spin, that could pull in additional moisture with better rain chances lifting north through the northern sides of Honduras. So, San Pedro Sula, La Ceiba, Utila, Roatan, Guanaja, coastal Guatemala towards Belize City, even inland say Ignacio or to walk, better shower storm chances coming your way beginning the end of the week towards the weekend. Some of this could string up towards Cancun and Cozumel. Scattered showers are likely on a daily basis over Jamaica. Maybe a few more showers later in the week in the Cayman Islands, but again, some of these areas will also be fighting some Saharan air from time to time as well.

[00:16:10]You'll start to see again a little bit better rain chance moving back into the Bahamas here. And interestingly, in the 5-day forecast right at the end, we could actually see a very weak system come off the United States East Coast, and that could provide a better shower and storm chance for again, the Abacos, Grand Bahama, Bimini, Andros, New Providence, Eleuthera areas. But overall, for the Bahamas in the coming days, back down to Turks and Caicos, slightly better rain chance through our Friday, and then the northern sides of the Bahamas could carry that rain chance over the weekend as well. Still going to see some isolated heavier downpours across the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

[00:16:46]Again, some areas could locally get a few inches of rain on a daily basis, maybe 50 to 75 mm, but I am expecting it to be fairly isolated in spots, but again, the higher terrain could lead to some low-level flooding here in the short term. Let's break the heat a bit for our friends in Puerto Rico with some scattered showers. Still going to favor some of the western sides of the island, but I'm not going to rule out some scattered showers over Fajardo and Vieques and Culebra. You live in St. Croix, St. Thomas and St. John and the British Virgin Islands, Jost Van Dyke up towards Anegada. And and you're going to have some fresh breezes and some passing showers. Still not a ton of rain until the weekend in our eastern zones as well. Expecting another round of moisture to come back in with some better rain chances this time in the Leeward Islands. Antigua, Barbuda, north Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis north, maybe a little bit better shower chance Friday, Saturday, maybe even hanging on to Sunday as well. And some of that moisture could ride up the rest of the Lesser Antilles, too. Again, I don't think it's going to be widespread heavier rain, but some quicker passing showers with better rain chances are likely even into the Windward Islands.

[00:17:49]And again, fresher winds could also lead to elevated sea conditions there. So, looking at the rainfall forecast over the next 5 days, there is the opportunity, you can see at the bottom of your screen, for about 15 inches of rain off the coast of Louisiana, but I don't think that ever moves inland.

[00:18:04]Additional heavier rain again with a developing system in the eastern Pacific. Higher rain totals beginning to move in from the central and northern Bahamas back north and east towards Bermuda, and it's a little bit more scattered in nature, but still some spots of heavier rain in the Lesser and the Greater Antilles. As far as the wave goes, significant wave heights of 10 to 12 feet continue with Bertha until Thursday afternoon when it should fall apart. We still have some gale conditions likely in the central side of the Caribbean over the next 48 hours.

[00:18:34]That could relax a little bit in time. And still not expecting a ton of elevated sea conditions east or even in with the Bahamas. Again, with the local showers and thunderstorms, you're still going to get the opportunity for some stronger wind gusts and kicking up some of the local seas, but nothing in a very broad scale. So, again, continuing to watch Bertha, which did make landfall over southeast Louisiana earlier. Winds are now 45 mph. Most models keep Bertha far enough inland where it's not going to regenerate and kind of weaken into a depression or an extra-tropical system as it moves west towards Houston. And hopefully that means that the wind and rain falls apart and there's no big issues for the upper coastline of Texas, but it's something that's going to need watching over the next 48 to 72 hours.

[00:19:18]Friends, I am out of time. Thanks for taking a quick second and hitting that like button and subscribing. You have a great rest of your day and I'm back tomorrow with your latest forecast.

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