This is a masterclass in atmospheric physics that trades sensationalism for rigorous thermodynamic analysis. It’s refreshing to see a forecast that treats its audience like scientists rather than passive observers.
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Basically Just A Forecast For Wednesday 5/6/2026Added:
Hello. Hello.
Welcome in. Welcome in.
Something's wrong with my time. Oh, there's an ad on my time. Honestly, I think I'm going to make my own clock. By next stream, we're going to have our own clock. Dang it. All right, let me make sure everything is working. Perfect.
Hello, everybody. Welcome in. Welcome in. welcome in. Uh not exactly sure what we're going to be doing today. Um got a very low confidence that this threat is going to uh actually produce tornadoes, but uh we'll be out here just to make sure. There is a a tornado watch was actually just issued seconds before I went live. And that's going to include areas like Mena, Waldrin, Hatfield, Cove, Mount Ida, Norman, uh also Murphy'sboro, Danville, Russellville, Hector, Marshall, Clinton, Herbert Springs, Batesville, Cersei, uh here in Arkansas. And we've been having storms try to fire off of this boundary really for like the past two to three hours.
And every single time they have failed to mature. We're dealing with a little bit of a stronger capping inversion than we initially thought. Our lower level lapse rates are going to be slowly uh drifting away uh into the non-scary portions of the you know lower lapse rates measurements. So as we go further out in the night, so the longer it takes for these storms to try to materialize, the overall tornado threat, at least the one that we were expecting, which was maybe a couple tornadoes in northeastern Arkansas, is probably not going to happen. Uh but maybe here initially we could have a brief period where tornadoes are possible. Really not seeing a thermodynamic profile that's going to support really any strong tornado threats today.
Even though that they have been saying or we do have a hatched risk today, I'm just not seeing it. Thermodynamic profile isn't great. We have a lot of things going against these storms. We've got capping inversion. We have got uh two low lapse rates uh on the surface.
We've got um you know initially here very not a whole lot of shear where these storms are going to be able to fire and our forcing is also going to be pretty meager. We're also dealing uh with a heck of a lot of cloud cover and that's keeping our thermodynamic profile a little bit less uh interesting today which is what we want to see. So yeah, a lot of things really not in these storms favor. It's going to take a lot of happen stances to kind of get a storm that's going to be able to really do much today. So, we're going to be watching it, making sure. Um, but I think uh one of the things that we might end up doing today, it very possible that we could just be doing a forecast for tomorrow, which tomorrow also has a lot of issues to overcome. Even though we do have a 10% hatch risk, we're going to be dealing with kind of some similar issues, a lot of cloud cover tomorrow.
We're going to be dealing with a lot of uh crappy lower level lapse rates, which in the southeast that usually doesn't preclude a lot of dangerous storms. Um, so we'll be talking about tomorrow and I'll give you guys my thoughts on that.
and I'm still kind of in the same head space. There's just a lot of failure modes for today and going into tomorrow.
Uh so that's what I'm kind of thinking right now.
But uh but yeah, we'll be I'll be going over the forecast in just a little bit.
But how's everybody doing? Also um I got this thing down over here. Uh I've been able to make a program that monitors the weatherwise debugging and we're now able to track what state we're in uh no matter where we pull the the map. So that's good. So people just come in and they're not familiar where we're looking on the map, they can just look on the bottom left and see that. Also got weather circle posts on the left now that will pop up. Uh so when anybody posts on Weather Circle, I will know immediately. So if you guys have anything to share or any questions that you guys want to ask on Weather Circle, uh that's now going to be uh there in present during our live streams at all times. That'll always be on the corner of my eye. It kind of looks like this.
That's what it looks like. So, nice little nice little thing over there. We also added some new music, a little bit more piano. I like piano. So, hopefully you guys uh don't like uh hopefully you guys are not super annoyed by piano.
Cue the danger music. Cue the insane tornado video.
Did y'all like that video?
Is it scary piano music? I don't know.
Can y'all hear it? I think it's pretty light.
What radar do I use? This is uh weatherwise. I use weatherwise uh for radar right now, but I'm trying to get Weather Circle to the point to where we don't have to do that. But they're still beating us by 20 to 30 seconds. They usually they beat most apps by like a minute. Um they're still beating Weather Circle by around 20 to 30 seconds. And because we're using most of our data goes through my laptop, um you know, we we we might be able to shave like 15 seconds off of that. But I don't I just can't figure out how they're getting it so fast. So, our storms over here in Arkansas are trying again uh to try to get their act together in between St. Paul and Ozark. And again, these are going to be the main ones that we're going to have to watch. Michael Heepler uh says over here in uh North Carolina, Statesville, North Carolina is 77 and sunsetti. Oh, you better show us a picture of that sunset.
you better go ahead and get on it.
Thanks for sharing. Yeah, as you can see, it's a lot easier uh to see when you guys post without having Weather Circle up. I have an overlay. I'm not sure. I don't think it it's not it's not like a thing that comes with Weather Circle yet, but I'll probably program it into the app for the rest of you guys if you do want, you know, some kind It's kind of like the Nvidia uh overlay.
Hot Springs, Arkansas here. Welcome in.
Welcome in.
sounded over. I am over it. But, you know, I I I honestly uh it is what it is. You know, people be uh they they do YouTube differently. And I already know if I start talking about it, you know, it's uh it's going to turn into a long a long rant. So, I'm probably not going to do that. But, there will definitely be some sarcasm here and there. Uh but yeah, it's just getting bad, man. I just feel like people are making forecasts.
They're not looking into the nitty-gritty of the models. They're just looking at the STP values and they're and then they just say it's going to be like uh you know super bad and but the STVP values are just potential you know the potential that is there for tornadoes if there's a lot of other factors in place but if those factors aren't there then it's not the same. So yeah, but don't worry, we look at the models and actually look at all the things, all the nitty-gritty for you guys. But uh yeah, this is probably one of our best initiation attempts that we've seen pretty much all day today. As you can see, we've been getting a lot of these uh little popups kind of happen. Uh and they they just die. So we'll see if this if these guys can actually sustain. We are expecting supercells to try to sustain themselves. It's just likely that they will probably uh be elevated, but we'll we'll keep an eye on it.
Uh what's the biggest failure mode today? There's so many failure modes. Uh the lower level lapse rates are going to be probably too low for storms to mature. Our forcing is low. We've had cloud cover all day. So, none of those aspects have been able to improve throughout the day. Uh our instability is going to be on the lower side, but just enough to supply these storms uh with enough fuel to be severe. I still think we're going to see some severe weather today, but when you have lapse rates below six here in the southeast, it's really hard to get something going.
Right now, right around these storms are just hanging around six. But as the sun goes down and the ground starts to cool, those lapse rates will start to uh get um worse in terms of what storms would want to be able to mature. So, these storms are going to have a very short period of time in my mind to be able to get that tornadic stuff going, but we'll see.
New MCD Let's see if we can see it.
Uh, let me Oh, I didn't mean to do that.
Go back here and then I'll just get a get of that going.
Oh yeah, they just uh released a new MCD back down uh into the Texas area. Severe threat is likely to develop earlier this evening. A watch issuance will be needed shortly uh after convective initiation.
So watch out. Uh main big problem down there is going to be uh large hail and damaging winds. Um, if storms can overcome the capping down there, that is still very much in question. Very conditional risk down there. They do have a watch probability of around 60%.
So, there's that.
Do want to turn down the music just a tad.
Turn it down to just a couple dBs. Yeah, that's the uh latest there. So, a watch most likely a severe watch uh is possible back over here in the Texas area. And these storms are going to initiate off of this boundary here. Uh any storm that initiates to the north of that could still be a hail threat. Our warm sectors out over there near Dallas though, so they should uh convect and then kind of move off to the eastsoutheast. Um so Fort Worth should be good to go. Still some severe potential. Uh but uh I would be keeping an eye on it regardless, but we'll see what happens. Usually they initiate off this boundary and move to the east or southeast. I think he's uh Carol for being a member for 21 months. I do appreciate that.
sub only mode on. No, let me change that. I do appreciate you reminding me of that for sure. Thank you. Thank you, Michael.
Um, that subscribers any duration. Perfect.
Um, that and then I think we had another post over here on weather circles. Let's check that out. So, we got angel wings back over here in Fort Worth and Dallas.
Everything looking great in Springtown, Texas. Cloud cover and Kinsey clouds building up to the east near Fort Worth.
So, if you guys uh look over there, uh Angel Wings is reporting cloud cover is building, which can be a good thing. So, hopefully uh it it remains a good thing.
What do you think about the Memphis area today? Likely just damaging winds. Uh if you look at the latest models today, uh let me see if I if we got like the 0 coming in yet. No, our latest one is the 18Z. And and and this is good news. I mean, we have these storms that do fire. They do look outflow dominant. They're going to be in that lower level lapse rate kind of zone that's just really not favorable for much severe weather. And then once we get into around 10 p.m., all of these storms are going to be in unfavorable environment thermodynamically, especially near the surface to sustain, you know, really much more than some hail and some damaging winds. Probably nothing significant unless these storms, you know, just interact with each other just right. As you can see, they cluster up pretty quickly. Um, and they never really mature into like a a a dangerous looking supercell. And that's not just because, you know, oh, we're looking at, you know, convection, simulated convection. Obviously, you shouldn't take it as 100%, but the the this convection looks exactly as I would expect it. Storms that are more likely to form into clustered segments and also be outflow dominant. So, mainly a damaging wind and hail threat for the Memphis area. That's probably going to be around 1:00 a.m. Mostly just a line of storms, very minimal tornatic activity. Uh, but you could definitely get some uh damaging winds. I wouldn't completely rule out tornado like a brief tornado, but we're definitely not talking any strong tornadoes over there in the Memphis area. And then further to the south and west, uh, as you can see, our latest model run down here for the Dallas Fort Worth area. Uh, has really downtrended in what these storms are going to be capable of doing around you guys. But I've definitely still keep an eye on it just in case the model's wrong. But, you know, we are getting pretty close to the event and AR usually does pretty decent as we get this close.
So, um I'll keep an eye on it for sure.
But generally overall, uh is I'll show you guys one of the main things that's really uh got me bearish uh on today's threat.
Let's see. Uh we'll take uh we'll take uh that off.
Actually, we'll keep this on. Uh, one, there's a little bit of a capping inversion that's still out there, but you can see that it will break on the northeastern portion of Arkansas. It's going to kind of stick around and then as we go in the nighttime, which is very soon here, that capping inversion is really going to build in near the surface. Uh, so these storms only got a couple of hours to try to produce anything. Uh, but again, those lapse rates are sitting around below five. I'm trying to figure out what what the heck I want to do with this. Uh, cuz it's kind of getting in my way here. Maybe I make it smaller. Let me make it a little smaller for now.
All right, there we go. And then one of the things I do want to show you guys is the And now I got to move this. Jeez.
Uh I need a way to like deal with that.
All right, go to there.
Where is thing that I'm looking for?
Be in thermodynamics. No. Yeah, there it is. As our lapse rates. Uh so what we're looking here is for these orangey colors, like the brighter orangey colors, and you can see we got a lot of gray out there, especially out in front of those storms that try to initiate uh back over into northeastern uh Arkansas.
So these are what we call lapse rates.
And so lapse rates are important for storms because they denote the gradient between the heat at the surface and the cooler air at the top. Now, typically when we have a stronger low pressure system on on the on the, you know, above the the storms and above the ground, you have some colder temperatures loft, right? And those, you know, make a gradient with the warmer temperatures as the daytime heating happens and you get the warmth kind of mixed with the moisture and you get that surface instability. Um, and so the the the tighter that gradient, the colder the air loft is in comparison to the warmer the air on the surfaces, the greater your lapse rates are. And if they're pretty low, that means that difference um is really the gradient between those two. So it's not really cold up a lot and it's not really that warm near the surface. That's when you start to get those low lapse rates. And that usually equals uh storms really struggling when it comes to um their updraft strength.
So we're gonna have storm struggle today to mature u and definitely struggle to become surface based. So that's kind of what I'm seeing right now. This is the main thing. And as you can see, one of the things I do want to note for to for tomorrow that trend is going to come all the way into tomorrow. It's going to be a little bit better. But you can see where storms try to fire initially is it's just mismatched. You can see our best lapse rates are back over here in Alabama. Our storms try to fire back over here with our some of the forcing that's coming in. They struggle to mature because the lapse rates aren't really supporting much of a, you know, stronger updrafts. And then you could see that none of these storms really mature. Now, if we started to get a bunch of supercells in this area, the the atmosphere kinematics does support very large, you know, large to very large hail and also strong tornado threat, which is why we did they did issue a strong tornado threat for tomorrow. But again, latest model run really showing those lapse rates doing these storms in and when in the southeast I'll tell you what when you have those very low lapse rates storms just can't get started they can't get big can't tap into that sheer environment so those are my thoughts for today and tomorrow we might go a little bit more into detail if uh things are just generally uh not doing anything but I do want to watch these little guys back over here and attempt I think they're going to struggle to mature that's my thoughts Hello. Hello. Hello.
All right, let me get this back over here.
How am I doing? I'm doing all right.
Doing all right. I have enjoyed the uh the time off. Really have really happy to hear that. Was worried about tomorrow night. Thanks for thanks to the local news hype. Yeah, I don't know. Like I'm losing my faith.
Like there's a lot of local news that'll just stick to the to the forecast, but I'm I'm noticing more and more local news are buying into like the whole hype thing. Kind of falling into the hype train rather than and I'm not sure if it's because maybe they just don't know how to forecast. I would assume they do since they went to school for it. My guess is that, you know, they're seeing, you know, all the success of all these other channels doing hype and they're just hopping on it for ratings, I guess.
I don't know. Any tornadoes reported yet? Absolutely not.
We haven't even had a severe thunderstorm warning today. We haven't even had a storm reach above 40,000 ft today. So, let's see if these ones are going to be the first ones. Nope. The cloud tops on these storms are only at about 20 to 30,000 ft. So, not what you call um a storm that's ready to really be severe.
We'll see. This will either be a day where, you know, we're just covering rain and a tornado watch or, you know, maybe I think the only thing that can really save these storms and the only way that we can get uh a tornado to happen uh is if we just see a lot of mergers. Just a bunch of storms merging into one. But if it does happen, I mean, we got everything ready. We got Vince Welty out there. More stormchasers are going to go live. So, I mean, we'll be here. But, you know, like I said yesterday, today's been overhyped. No one's been looking at the right. no one's been like talking about the right thing and there's been a lot of misinformation out there. Um, you know, people that are just looking at just the basics on on models and not actually diving deep. But, you know, you go watch my video from yesterday or if you watch Trey Greenwood, who is an excellent forecaster at Convective Chronicles, you know, the people that actually are looking at the models in the right kinematics to really tell if these storms are going to do much. We've all been saying the same thing or thermodynamically. Today's kind of chocked and so we'll see. And I don't think we're going to see that change either because we just have so much cloud cover. I mean, there hasn't been any opportunity for our surface thermodynamic dynamics to warm up and overcome some of these things. So, we'll see.
Not even a special weather statement today. Yeah. And also um in comparison to the models yesterday uh we were supposed to already have storms at this point. It was really a matter of if they would sustain um yesterday when we were talking about it. Uh but uh these storms have fired actually nearly 2 hours later. So that means the window is even shorter. So if these things don't mature like rapidly within the next hour that capping inversion is going to start to build back in in its wraps for these storms.
Tomorrow will be much better in the south. Not really. No, we're going to be dealing with the same issues tomorrow.
Same issues. Uh we get 10% hatch risks all the time here in the southeast. And it's usually the same kind of thing that happens. Um you know, when your lapse rates are very low, you you get uh you get little like little storms fire into the warm sector. Most of your storms fire along the cold frontal boundary, but none of the storms in the warm sector mature because the lower lapse rates are too weak. So, the updrafts of the storm are weak. When they get hit by that lower level shear that's supposed to start the spin, instead of helping the storm spin, it rips the storm apart when the updraft's too weak. So, I I do not have confidence that tomorrow uh will be that dangerous of a day yet.
I'll have to wait for tomorrow. I need I need I need some models to convince me cuz right now the lapse rates are too low and every single time the lapse rates are below six in the southeast the storms just can't get it done. We've called it we've called those multiple days in advanced many times in the past and it's always the same pattern. Lapse rates are too low at the surface forcing too weak and in the south that's just uh and then also cloud cover in the south chocked done. We'll see.
I would say it's hyped for now. I mean, there's just nothing on the models that are really pointing to a super volatile day tomorrow. Uh, it's definitely something to continue to watch. You never know. The models do change.
So, uh, we'll see what tomorrow brings.
I'll likely we'll do a forecast today for sure and just kind of go over my current thoughts on it. But I mean, you can see just the the So, in order for us to be concerned about for tomorrow, so this is tomorrow at around 6:00 p.m., we've got to see these storms in the models tomorrow. And also a lot more of this uh orange kind of fill in. And also uh in our in our uh let's see here, if we go over to our 500 mibar winds, we need to see a lot more spreading apart of these wind vectors, which we just not seen. So, so not only are the lapse rates going to be low tomorrow, um, and there's likely going to be a decent amount of cloud cover, so not a whole lot of surface heating to kind of overcome those uh those lapse rates to, you know, to make the gradient a little bit bigger by warming the surface. We're not even going to have that much forcing either to kind of force storms to rise.
So, uh, you know, a a very likely scenario tomorrow is that we just see these little showers sort of to pop up and then, you know, everybody says, "Oh, these are going to grow to be really strong dangerous storms and they're going to completely ignore the fact that our lapse rates are so low and they'll keep saying, "Oh, just give it time.
They'll grow. They'll be big, strong tornadoes." And then nothing happens.
They die. The cold front smashes into them. Lapse rates dissipate as we go into the night. And you know, I will say there is still probably going to be a chance um maybe for some like briefer tornadoes as we go into the overnight hours. That lower level shear really starts to pick up. A lot of times when the lower level shear gets up to like 40 to 50 knots, the storms kind of don't care what a lot of the thermodynamics are doing. But you know, u that that that that remains to be seen. But in terms of like a long track or really a strong tornado at all, you need these storms in the warm sector to be able to mature. And um you know, that's why I said yesterday it was weird to me that we saw those storms fire. This is a more likely scenario. So, we need to figure out um you know, what the lapse rates are going to do tomorrow. Once we do, uh we'll really know what tomorrow is going to do. But for now, it it looks like just some some classic southeast slopfest is what stormchasers call it. a sto a slapfest.
So, we'll see. We'll see. Models aren't perfect, so we always have to keep that in mind. But the there is consistency at least of those low laps rates. So, and also given the fact of what we've seen today with the low cloud cover sticking around for a long time. Um, you know, hopefully that that that is a bearing for tomorrow's future as well.
So, we'll see.
bring on the Death Ridge summertime.
Yeah, I mean, uh, yeah, after these storms, it's really not going to be that favorable until potentially all the way out to like late May, maybe some of the ensemble uh members are starting to hint at something in that far possibility.
So, you know, that could change.
Obviously, it's super far away. So, I'm not going to make any statement on when severe weather is really going to ramp back up. But, you know, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a couple of storms like this happen again. You know, uh kind of storms where you might get a tornado or two. Um you know, if everything lines up perfectly, maybe you still see a strong tornado.
>> Donated $10.
>> Hey, thank you so much for that $10 on PayPal. Thank you.
So, we got a new post out over here in Colorado from Lucas. They say it's nice and snowy here in Colorado. I'm guessing you can't Did you post a photo? Why you guys keep saying this stuff and not posting no photos? I want to see.
I appreciate the description of what is happening in Colorado. Thank you so much.
How's Mama Fry and family doing? They're doing all right.
They're trying to plan a vacation for late May. Trying to figure out whether or not I'll be able to go to that. It'll likely be I have to miss most of it or some of it for some type of severe weather coverage, but then hopefully I can maybe have a couple days at the beach.
We actually go live tomorrow. I will go live tomorrow. Yeah. I mean, we'll be live to watch it. Um, but you know, if my thoughts don't change, we'll we'll kind of have the same attitude that I have right now for this storm, which is tornado threat coverage.
You know, Did I miss a super chat? Oh, yeah. Thank you, Table Talk Geek, for the $2.
Jeez.
Am I using Weatherfront? No.
By the way, guys, we can still use all the storm chases. Saw you guys commenting on one of my videos that you thought that because they were going to Weather uh Weatherfront that uh we were going to lose all of our stormchasers.
That's not true. That's not true. Um, somehow we're still shielded from that.
I'm not sure, but uh, we'll take it.
Uh, yeah. Thank you, Tabletop Geek, for that $19 or one or $1.99. Uh, so for North Carolina, your threat's going to be uh, or yeah, your threat's going to be on day two. Pretty low chance. Might see some showers and thunderstorms.
Worst case scenario, a weak severe thunderstorm where you could just pee inside and be okay. Uh yeah, I'm not I'm not worried about Wilmington right now, but if something comes up on the models, I'll definitely let you know. Tabletop Geek.
Yeah, same thing for you in Charleston.
All right, check in on our storms. See if they uh are showing any more promise.
Not really.
Typically, when you're looking for a severe thunderstorm, you are looking for um like at least 45 to 50,000 foot cloud tops.
And right now, we're at 21 a whopping 21,000 foot cloud tops.
So, uh yeah, these storms going to need a little bit more time. And hey, they they there's a very good chance today that they never get to that that spot.
But that that would actually kind of surprise me.
I feel like we should at least get maybe a couple severe thunderstorm warnings with some like some larger hail being possible, especially down over here in Texas.
Looks like that uh frontal boundary is almost uh all the way through Dallas at this point.
Uh hey Cruz, you would like to collaborate one day in the future. Uh on what?
like broad weather broadcast.
Thank you so much uh for that $2. I do appreciate that.
Looks like we got uh somebody reporting something over here in Arkansas.
New something popping up in and around Arkansas. Yeah, we're keeping an eye on it. Devonte, I'm glad to see you're keeping an eye on it, too. The more eyes the better. Thank you.
And thank you for posting on Weather Circle. I do appreciate that.
I think the cold front is also moving too fast. Um I mean the cold front is moving down to the south for sure. You I've been watching it but it it seems like it's kind of stalled for now that I haven't really noticed it make much more of a southern it like stopped or stalled just near Fort Smith.
Um, but I mean, yeah, that that could be part of it. Uh, but you know, there's just so many failure modes today. It's overwhelming. So, I don't know. I just don't see how anybody could uh say with a straight face that like definitely strong tornadoes were going to happen today without giving any caveats cuz it's just so many failure modes.
Not a broadcast. You have a podcast that you'd like me to have me on as a guest one day in the future.
I'll think about it. Maybe if I had time.
Is there high risk? No.
No. Uh, it's a it's a slight risk. Two out of five for danger.
But heck, seeing how some of the people have been talking about it, I I I I don't blame you for for wondering.
Yeah, just just a slight risk today. So, nothing too crazy in terms of other types of severe weather. Uh, but we could get a couple of large hailers out there and a couple instances of some damaging winds as well.
sitting in Vonia, Arkansas. Are you live right now, Justin, or are you just waiting?
Think I'll get lucky and it'll uptrend from Thursday.
I don't know.
I don't know. I mean, the the atmosphere does not look primed to really do much.
And I think if it got upgraded, that would be due to a little bit more surface instabil instability, maybe some stronger windstorms over there on the East Coast. All right, I'll put you up.
Uh, Justin, since you're an Arkansas native, we got to have the Arkansas native in the chat on the screen.
Wind Dancer Media.
That's how you know there's not a whole >> Evan's going to put us on his >> Oh my gosh, that scared me. I didn't know I had you unmuted.
Uh, let me come here.
Get you up on the big screen here. Now you can watch yourself see no storms just in live.
I'm just kidding. There will likely be storms today. It's not going to be that much of a of a lack of activity. And heck, we we we might even see a brief tornado try to happen. Yeah. This is Justin's view. He's ina, Arkansas.
Bologonia. Is that how you say it?
You're in uh northwest Arkansas. Glad the front has passed you. Yeah. Yeah. If we go over to our mear data um show it here, you can see that like Fagatville your Dupoint temperature has plummeted. You guys are down to 54 degrees 51 degree due points. Uh that's because that front has passed you. It looks like the front still sitting around uh Fort Smith where we still have temperatures in the 80s. Uh due points up in the 68° Salis. You can see their temp. Yeah, it looks like it's sitting just right around just maybe just to the south of Salisol. So, let's see. Caleb just posted over here.
He says, "Check in check in in you're near me. I want to see who in chat is my neighbor." Okay, so Caleb wants to know who in chat lives in Illinois and also has weathercircle.app.
We'll see if you have any neighbors. You probably do if I had to guess.
And then we have Squashy Candle just posted over here in uh in New Jersey saying it's very windy over here. Thank you for letting us know, Squashy Candle.
This is great. I'm so glad I made this overlay program. Now I can see exactly when everybody posts. All I got to press is control alt w and it's on the side of the screen.
All right, checking on our storms. We do still have some rain.
Rain alert. Huge rain.
Uh 28,000 ft. Holy moly.
Sound the alarms. I'm just kidding. Uh, still very shallow cloud tops.
Very shallow.
Typically, we want to see about 45 to 50,000 foot cloud tops to kind of take a storm seriously.
PDS moist warning. Oh my gosh. Uh, all right. Let me uh take this little block off here.
Let's see what uh Vince Welty's chatting about. I mean, what do you even what do you even say in a time like this? Let's see what he's Let's see what he's talking about.
>> Hey, she she has some spare makeup she can give you when she's next over here.
>> Oh, they're talking about makeup.
>> I am anxiously waiting the makeup.
>> Oh, Vince really wants the makeup.
>> I'm sure you are.
>> Interesting. I'm so glad we came into this conversation right now.
>> Where did you come from?
>> Cuz these are obviously facts about Vince Wely that we didn't know before.
>> Oh, you were probably in Houston, weren't you? So, you didn't have to go that far.
>> You know what I love? I love when you just pause and you have to >> I'd love to stay here and listening to that.
All right. Uh, somebody in weather circle said, "How's my area looking like?" Uh, definitely would still be weather aware. Uh, it is certainly possible we see some initiation near you. Uh, our latest HR models are saying maybe not anything like too severe.
What y'all think this Storm is song is a little bit too intense?
I like it, but it is like right on the line.
I feel like if that song came on like right on a tornado warning be be kind of be kind of cool, but like it'd be a vibe.
Let's see. I was told it's supposed to be stormy and it's cold and misty here.
Yeah. Yeah. You're north of the frontal boundary.
North. You're going to be fine today.
You might see some hail though.
Thank you for posting, Kyle.
Oh, I love this song.
This is a whole new realm of content.
Ease dropping on chasers. Yeah, you can only find that here.
Yeah, these storms are still looking uh you know, there are some mergers happening though. So eventually one of these storms will try to do to do some maturing, but right now all these storms are laughing at fart jokes. They're kind of immature storms right now.
Fection has fired over Dallas. Ooh. Oh yeah, look at that. So storms are firing right on our boundary here uh in the Dallas area.
We'll see what they do. See, it's fire firing right along that boundary there.
Little skinny green line is our initiating boundary down here uh in Dallas. And there's also another little uh storm firing off to the north too over here near Leavonne.
Keep your eyes on that.
Thank you, Regina, uh for being a member. Dude, what is up with these velocities?
Oh my gosh.
I thought something never seen before was happening, but I think weatherwise is glitching out a tad. Okay.
Thought we were getting like a dry micro burst.
Can you put the radar in motion? Sure, I can put the radar in motion.
Sorry about that. I usually do.
Yeah, watch out over there in Dallas.
Some uh hail, potentially even some very large hail is possible over there. The tornado risk should be relatively low, but uh definitely need to be watching those storms for that large to very large hail risk.
That's an interesting fact.
Yeah. Uh we'll see. Hopefully we don't get a high risk this year.
Going to Little Rock for my son's brain surgery. Oh my goodness.
Vendville, Arkansas on the 40 almost tornado to watch all the way to Little Rock. Should be there by 8:30. Should we be concerned? I wouldn't really be that concerned, honestly. I'd keep your eye out. I'd still be weather aware. I don't think anybody out here should be overly concerned right now cuz as of right now, all the things are in y'all's favor for no tornadoes. Um, so I'd keep an eye on it. Keep a watch on it just in case the atmosphere does a little something a little sneaky, which does happen from time to time. Even though when there's a lot of failure modes, but typically when we see this many failure modes, it just falls apart. So, we'll keep you posted.
I'll be here just in case.
But I would not be worried. Even if you're like up here further up to the north, I wouldn't be overly worried. I'd just be weather aware.
Okay. So, what am Oh, never mind. Okay.
Vince never goes home. Seems like he was just by your house neck last week. Yeah, that's what most chasers do.
Most chasers just chase and they just keep on chasing.
What do y'all think about this little uh indicator down here for uh the state? Is that helpful for you guys to know where we're always looking?
All right, let's uh what I want to do, I want to look at the vill on this storm.
Almost severe, actually. So, we might be getting pretty close to some hail uh over there in kind of central Dallas.
Might be even some small hail in there.
So, watch out over there if you just live south of Highland Park over there like the uh Texas Scottish Wright Hospital for for children in Lowest Greenville and Lower Greenville. We got Lower Greenville and then we have Lois Greenville.
Where's Upper Greenville?
Oh no, they skipped upper Greenville.
That's just lower. Wait, how is it lower Greenville if there is no Greenville or Upper Greenville?
Uh, it's a little bit confusing.
didn't know weather uh circle sends you notifications. It can send uh notifications. Yeah, for me I have this.
This is what my own little custom program that's just monitoring weather circle so that uh whenever you guys post I can see it. When I click on it, it brings up weather circle for me just so I can always see it. You know, typically this is hiding behind all my programs and I don't ever see when you guys post.
So, um, it's nice to have that. Do you drink caffeine? I find it helps for late night streams. I I drink it in the morning. If I drink it at the h at night, it causes higher anxiety for me.
For some reason, my body just don't like nighttime caffeine or caffeine.
Caffeine. Why don't they call it caffeine?
That's what it should be called. Looks like we just got a special weather statement. Hey. hail, half half inch hail and 40 mile per hour winds possible uh in the Dallas area just commented on your post and got a notification. Yeah, you can turn on post notifications on weather circle too.
Yeah, rain continues here in Arkansas.
Storms are show still trying to figure out what they want to do. Let's check on our cloud tops to see if uh these things are trying to mature yet. Not really.
We're still hanging right around that 29,000 ft range there. So, still not a whole lot of maturity uh out of our storms.
Shoot. I can double click that. That's helpful to know.
having coffee now. Yeah, I mean it it's definitely helpful. My dad will drink coffee like all day.
I can't do that though.
Also glad seeing you back. Hey, I'm only back because of you guys. I mean, we've hit um you know, $2,200 on our monthly goal uh within a couple of weeks or in like a within a week. So, you know, it's you guys that keep this channel alive and I really do appreciate that. So, thank you for thinking that I'm important enough to to to stick around.
Winter storm warning. Yeah, that Well, we do have winter storm warnings out there. Um like back over here in Colorado, essentially a decent amount of snow is possible uh out over here uh in the mountainous re regions.
Um but yeah, there's no severe thunderstorm warnings right now. So, our our warning overlay program is going to default to the next best thing, which is the winter storm warning.
Am I worried about the storm in Arkansas? No, not really.
I appreciate that. King Richard probably got other things.
Oh, I wish honestly I I wish golf was as easy as learning to forecast. Learning to forecast. I mean, it's it's been a a decently long road for me, but but golf has been way harder to learn.
That's like the only other thing I do other than this. I like to think, philosophize, stuff like that. But those are really just hobbies.
I sing sometimes maybe try to get my voice back.
Finally got your MRI results back. Four budged bulged discs and lumbar spondilosis impingement of the L5 nerve. Ooh. Any impingement of any nerve. Not good.
Sheesh. I'm not a doctor, but I know that that does not sound that that is not good.
That sounds painful.
Soundtrack is this um let me check guitar soundtrack. This is called Sitting on the Moon by Rebecca Martal.
Thank you for so much for not hyping regular storms. Even the local news is acting like the world is ending. I just don't understand like if they're if they're I just don't understand how anybody that actually puts any effort to learning how to forecast can can act like this storm is still super dangerous. Yes, we can maybe get a bunch of mergers and maybe eke out a tornado, but again, our environment is going to be going to crap very fast. We have a very small window here on where storms could maybe get mature and try to do something. And as you can see, they're just not really doing much yet. And I got a feeling that's Yeah, I mean there's no forcing over this storm right now. No forcing. If we get a storm fire like over here near like Paris and Magazine, maybe a little bit further to the south of that, you know, maybe a little bit better. But I mean, the forcing is super bad. I mean, every there is nothing. I'm sorry. There is nothing but like instability going for these storms and that's it. I mean it it's so many failure modes. I just all the signs are there and very obvious.
So, I I I sound I feel crazy when I disagree with like literally everybody, but you know, but you know, I will say Trey Greenwood's on our side um in terms of this forecast just not thermodynamically being good at all. And he is one of, in my opinion, one of the smartest forecasters out there. Um so, we got a new message out over here from Hannah Goodwin, a picture to look at.
Oo, so we got a view of that storm. He he says, "So tired of being under the gun for severe weather." Yeah, I feel that. Thanks for uh thanks for sharing.
I do appreciate that.
We got somebody else uh out over here.
This David Hull saying, "Hello from Muselville. I hope we don't get tornadoes." Yeah, I wouldn't be overly worried. I I would be weather aware still. Stay tuned. Uh but again, I I'm just I'm not going to continuously say the same thing over and over again, but I am very unimpressed with today's setup.
Trey's low-key genius. He really is.
I definitely look up to him when it comes to forecasting skills. Like that's where I want to get eventually.
Is that coming for Tennessee?
Eventually. Yeah. Eventually. Uh we are going to see these storms eventually try to congeal into a line of storms and they'll be able to sustain severe capabilities maybe a little bit better uh as they progress into Memphis. But some damaging winds will definitely be possible. But I mean, if the environment just completely craps out, which is like even worse than what it is right now, you might not you might just see rain.
I still feel like we're going to get some severe storms today.
Yeah, these storms up here, they are in uh less Jeez.
Uh so these storms are in uh less so they're in five five laps rates typically want to be in the sixes. You can see that uh our lapse rates yeah lapse rates are starting starting the uh see a later trend.
These storms are they're going to they're not going to do much. We might not even get a severe warning out of these guys.
nighttime tornado is not good. Probably not. Again, that's why I put tornado threat coverage. I mean, I use the same thumbnail for everything. I kind of felt a little odd using the thumbnail for this just because it's my opinion is so different uh on what is possible, but um you know if something does end up happening, we'll be here. But again, very unlikely.
But we got stormchasers out there just in case one of these storms surprises even me, which does happen. I'm wrong sometimes.
I haven't been wrong in a while. Um but I'm wrong sometimes. It happens. And you know, I'll sit here and be like, well, you know what? This is a learning experience and I'll admit and we'll study it and we'll figure it out.
So, it does happen.
I'm honestly a fan of less dangerous storms than more dangerous storms.
Really?
I'm just kidding.
I think that's most people. No, it's like Vince is driving somewhere.
Cool.
>> Let's see what he's talking about.
Did he get his makeup?
>> All right. Well, we got through the roundabout of death. We're good.
>> Roundabout of death.
>> We made it.
>> Vince has survived the roundabout of death.
Of death. Play the heavy metal music and some flames.
Well, the SPC is there really for guidance for forecasters. Like the SPC like they they're there to kind of forecast the max potential, max intensity type thing. You know what I'm saying?
um similar failure modes. I'd say tomorrow has a couple less failure modes, but a pretty big one, which is uh again those laps rates.
So, here's the lapse rates here. You can see once we get into these colors, then you're talking about like ballistic lapse rates, but it's very hard to get storms to fire in 10° Celsius uh lapse rates, but uh what they do, their updrafts are super strong if they mature. Uh but yeah, this is tomorrow pretty much right around game time, which is going to be around 5 to 6 PM.
Um and uh let me change this really quick to a composite indicy. And I want to show you a little learning moment here.
That that and then take off the reflectivity. So you can see we have STP values of up to four to five STP values. So, if you just sit there and just show the STP, which is the significant tornado parameter, sounds big and scary, doesn't it? Uh, it shows you the potential that's there, but then when you take it off and then show the reflectivity, you see we don't really have any mature storms out there. We see a lot of small storms that are trying to mature, but they can't. They're probably going to struggle due to again our lower level lapse rates. As you can see, the STP does not care about the lower level lapse rates, although they're very important, especially in these southeastern uh types of storms for getting the storms act together.
Um, and so yeah, you know, tomorrow is uh still way up in the air. We'll have to see what to tomorrow's models look like. Again, we're about two days out, so the models can still be or about a day out, so the models can still have some some wiggle room like uh like for instance, maybe we could see some storms start to happen over there in Birmingham and some better lapse rates, but the wind shear is going to be a little bit lower out there, you know? So, big question marks, big time question marks about tomorrow, especially given the fact that where these storms are going to try to pop up at tomorrow are going to be in those very low lapse rates. Uh, which usually means no tornatic activity whatsoever. So, I think if we do get tornatic activity, it's going to be after uh let me show you guys without I should probably show you. Uh, it'll probably be like around this time. You see, we do have we do have storms that congeal along the leading edge of the line. And there will be some pretty high uh wind shear out in front of these storms. Like if you look at these photographs, look at these photographs.
Uh but yeah, you can see right here, uh you know, 40 knots of lower level shear, you know, turning with height could definitely the lapse rates are going to be absolutely terrible. Um but uh you know sometimes especially when you have around 300 uh 200 to 300 storm relativeity the storms really stop caring about these uh these uh little things uh that are lacking. They definitely care when the storms need to mature. But, you know, if you have a line segment, you know, firmly rooted on the cold front and you get a cold pool surge or an RFD and then it surges out into that warmth of moisture, you know, that cold front's going to force the storms to mature. And so, embedded in the line, we still might be able to eek out a couple tornadoes tomorrow, but really going to depend on those laps rates and if we can get actual supercells in that warm sector because if we don't, the strong tornado threat is going to drop precipitously.
Look at the posts. Sure.
Uh back over here we have uh David Hull reporting that he has some nice some cloud cover starting to darken a little bit. Well, the cloud cover is actually helping you out.
So that's good. That's technically good news.
Thank you for posting that. I do appreciate it. Then we also have Emma Harris back over here near Dallas.
They're they're hearing thunder near Garland.
Let's go check back over there into Texas. Don't have a severe warning on this storm yet. It's trying.
It's definitely trying. Let's uh look at the cloud tops on this. See how tall this thunderstorm is. Yeah. See, these ones down here are actually at least giving a better attempt at maturing than the ones in Arkansas where we're actually seeing 38,000 foot cloud tops on that.
Um so yeah, definitely still watching out for the potential for some hail, maybe even some instances of significant hail possible. uh with these storms and as well with some damaging winds. Oh, okay. And right on Q, just as we were expecting, our first severe thunderstorm warning is in Ohio.
Well, we're uh we didn't we haven't really talked about this too much yet, but there is a little bit of a marginal risk today uh back over near uh parts of Pennsylvania going into New York uh and up into Maine as well.
All right, back over here near Gford Lake, got this area of surging wind off to the east closing into Lisburn, Elkton, and Negley. If you guys live there, you guys do need to be uh indoors and away from windows. The threat with this storm is 60 mph winds.
Right right where we forecasted. I'm just kidding.
Where's help? Tornado explorer. What happened to Rev the Blondie? Anyone? We fired them all.
I'm just kidding. They're just not here.
I don't know where they're at. Oh yeah, Tornado Explorer is here.
Okay, this storm that's this song might that song in particular might be a little bit too intense at the end. That was a little crazy.
Okay, help is not here. Thanks for clarifying help.
lots of rain and some hail. Yeah, I wouldn't call it like a huge thunderstorm. It's definitely on the weaker side of things. Um but it could get bigger. You know, up to uh half inch hail. So, you're definitely going to hear little pings, little pings in there on off the the roof and maybe off the window. And, uh, there's definitely going to be some lightning uh, and some wind potentially up to 40 mph. But, uh, as long as you're indoor and away from windows, that uh, is a walk in the park.
Let me get our composite radar up for everybody.
out Tennessee tonight. Likely going to get some this this little line segment is eventually going to sink down into Memphis area at least according to our latest models.
I'll show you.
So yeah, you see here's the 18Z HR.
Wait, let me go all the way back. Sorry.
You see storms fire up here near Bartlesville, which is kind of what we're seeing right now. are going to try to mature and then they'll likely become severe somewhere around like Herbert Springs or Batesville. Sorry, that's not Bartlesville, Batesville. Uh and then they'll move down to the south and east, convect into a line, and become a damaging wind threat over there near Memphis at around uh 12:00 a.m. to 1:00 a.m.
And thank you uh Vanilla Mama for the $10. Thank you so much on in YouTube.
Thank you. That's a huge help.
Very helpful to see what state you're looking at. Thank you.
Yeah, I I have that on Weather Circle, but because Weather Circle's radar is just a little bit slower than Weatherwise's.
I've I I usually use Weatherwise while I'm live cuz they're they're just the fastest updating radar that's out there.
I'm not sponsored by them to say that.
That's just plain logical fact. Um so I it kind of frustrated me that I couldn't have that uh on Weatherwise. So, I I I made a program that reads the weatherwise debugging part of their code uh as I use their app and uh it shows me the state also what uh weather radar we're using too.
All right, back over here into Texas over there near Garland just north of Mosquite. Our storm is still trying. It looks a little It looks a little scraggly. Yeah, the cloud tops are starting to disintegrate a little bit.
That storm's struggling. It's struggling a bit, which kind of in line with what our models say. So hopefully this is going to be some good news. Models said maybe could get started, but then uh you know, you don't really even see much pink, which means very minimal hail.
Look like our lapse rates kind of uh throughout the night here also kind of fade. So if they're going to do anything, they're going to do any they're going to do it now, but they might not they might not have long to be severe.
could use some rain. Well, I hope you get some. How's Georgia looking for tomorrow? Um, let's go over to our models.
So, Northern Georgia might get some rain and some thunder uh as we go uh into around 9:00 a.m. on Wednesday.
So, tomorrow by 12:00 p.m. going to have maybe a line of thunderstorms over there in northern Alabama and that could also move into northern Georgia with some uh damaging wind potential.
And then like really everybody out here might be seeing some severe weather, might just be seeing some rain and thunder. Eventually, we're going to see some congealing of this line into a damaging wind threat uh as we move into 900 p.m. over there near Canton, Louisville, and Mississippi. over there in northern Georgia. Uh storms are are happening. Maybe some severe weather over there near Atlanta by the time we get into 10 pm. Uh and then our line continues to kind of push down to the south and east through Selma, Linden, Lraange, uh Eaton by 12:00 a.m. And still a damaging wind threat as it moves into Union Springs, Louisville, Americus, and Mcra, Helina by the time we move into 4:00 a.m. And maybe still a severe threat as it moves into southeastern Georgia. But it's likely going to be the northern Georgia to Atlanta that'll see the most severe weather capabilities. Maybe uh potentially as far south as like uh Americas and Mcra Helina over there in Georgia.
Really like this UI setup you have. It looks really cool. Thank you. Yeah, it's minimal. I wanted it to be minimal but helpful. You know, the people like everything that I'm adding is things that you guys keep bugging me about. So, honestly, I probably would have never added them if it wasn't for you guys annoying me to death about putting the tornado warning counter and severe counter. I never really got the point of it, but I guess it makes sense if you're just generally curious about it. Um, but the Yeah, the state thing that's that's super important to me.
But I appreciate I'm glad you I'm glad you like it.
Central Florida, any rain coming? I'm not sure for Central Florida. I know northern Florida will likely see rain.
Uh I guess we could check the roof.
Not looking like it. Looks like it's going to dry up. Maybe some rain going into Friday, May 8th, 400 p.m. over there near Palm Coast, but that seems to be pretty brief. Not a whole lot in the forecast for Florida.
So, these storms are still very scraggly up here, which is kind of what we expect. Still not even really getting over 30,000 ft, I don't think. Yeah, just getting to 30,000 ft. uh there on that northern one right there. That's probably our most intense thunderstorm, if you can even call it intense.
Uh this radar app here is weatherwise.
This radar app here is Aquacero. And then this weather app here is weather circle. We use multiple. So this is my app. It's like a social media weather.
>> Donated $20 for thanks for your great coverage.
>> Thank you, Crystal, for the $20. I appreciate that. Thank you for tuning in and trusting me with your with your weather um weather news and coverage.
I do appreciate it very much.
Yeah, weather circle we use for like uh communicating uh with you guys when it comes to like photos and videos and like questions and all that kind of stuff.
Hey Chazy, did you eat your food?
Let's go check back in on that severe thunderstorm warning over in Ohio. Still pushing off to the east, still making its way towards Lisbon. Strongest winds are likely here and that's going to be moving towards Libsbin and Elkton here in a little bit. Middleton, East Palestine also need to be uh indoors and away from windows. We're expecting up to 60 mile per hour winds with this storm as it continues to push off to the east.
I already read their apps. I might have too many.
The the the stream still looks fine though, so it's not completely destroying my computer yet.
Yes. Chazzy's Chazzy's like, "What are you doing? This is our snuggle time. Are you really watching storms during snuggle time?" I think Chazzy wants a divorce. Oh man, look at this. These storms are falling apart just like the model said. We'll keep an eye on them. I still think there's still a couple little brief periods, but the models have been less bullish on these storms uh as of our latest uh model runs.
They're coming on now. Yeah. Yeah, no problem. No problem. I understand. Like I was I was kind of hesitant myself to go live, but I was like I know that there's been like just so much hype for some reason around today. People calling for 10% hatched risks and um saying this is a storm that you're not prepared for and uh you better get ready cuz I is ish is about to go down. Uh so I just wanted to come up here and and give a little bit of calmness to the situation, a little bit of reality.
That being said, it is pretty it's pretty likely that there is going to be a lot of dead spots in this uh stream. That's okay. And thank you Emma Harris for posting on Weather Circle. They say getting windy.
Thank you for letting us know. We are really looking forward to your post. And also Hannah, uh let us know if you see any other cool clouds out there over there in the Dallas area.
Good evening. Good evening. Good evening.
You're doing all right. Welcome in.
Welcome in.
Sorry, I'm messing with something right now. Trying to figure out the best way to put best place to put my reporter chat to where it won't like get hidden that much. I think I might try to make an overlay for the reporter chat as well.
Nobody's ready for this rare, unusual storm, says Trevor.
Uh, oh yes, our storms are very skinny spaghetti noodles right now, struggling to mature. There is a decent amount of lightning happening though, but yep, still playing out as I expected.
We'll keep our eye on it just in case.
And yeah, these storms are falling apart near Dallas. We'll we'll we'll go back to Dallas every now and then to check in what's happening. But yeah, 60 mph winds over here in Ohio still. Looks like those are making it into Lisbon now. Colombiana is next and then East Palestine uh here in eastern Ohio.
Today's storm just storms just took a serious storm. Yes, the storm track just completely shifted even though like the the forecast is literally the same area last video.
But I'll be right back. Give me Uno Moss.
check. California, Fresno.
Thank you, Sandy, um, for the $5 on YouTube. Thank you so much. They say, "I was not listening to the false narrative. But listen to you. The hyping up of the weather is so not necessary.
Trazy treats or divorce fun.
Thank you. I appreciate that.
Another big storm is coming. It eventually will. There is truth to those titles, just not for the storm that's going to happen soon. Eventually, another big storm will come. It is May.
I'm not really seeing a whole lot in California right now.
I think it'll be all right. Looks like we got a special weather statement here in uh Nevada.
Look at this.
Quarterinchiz hail.
Chazzy don't do it.
does feel like weatherwise is running a bit slow for me right now. Is that happening for everybody or is that just me?
I might have too many programs open.
Things are about to get out of hand.
Trying to think of like my favorite one.
Oh, wait. I've been seeing a lot of channels using the word explode.
These storms are about to explode.
Look at them explode right now. You can see it right now on radar. Oh my goodness. Oh my goodness. Wow.
Look how much they're exploding.
Y'all seeing those storm explosions down over there in Clarksville?
Am I going to explode with them? I hope not. Help.
I surely hope not, my my dude.
They're getting out of hand. It's all right. It's all right. We'll always be here, guys. Don't you worry.
Just come check over at my channel if you don't see me screaming.
then it's probably not going to be much.
But I mean, if the forecast looks bad, like I'm going to use some crazy wording. Probably won't use the word explode, but I'll definitely be like, I'm very concerned or this is the real deal, you know, or you know, if I use the word violent tornadoes possible, then that means the atmosphere is absolutely juiced. And I have very high confidence for a very dangerous event.
If you come if you see a bunch of channels saying um this storm is going to throw your house two miles and you come over to my channel and it says uh some weak storms are coming and you know that there's a little bit of something going on there. Violent rain sprinkles.
Yeah.
The only thing to look at is over here.
The only thing to really talk about is over here in Ohio.
And watch out over there in East Palestine. 60 mph winds are coming y'all's way.
Don't think this wind gust is strong enough to support a brief tornado, but there is a little something happening over here. A very I wouldn't even I wouldn't even call it rotation. Just some a little bit of convergence there.
Wonder if any of our Arkansas cameras are like close to these rain showers.
He wants to look at these rain showers with me. Come with me. Follow me.
where the forecast are only in your imagination.
Allighty, there's Clarksville. So these storms like North Clarksville, maybe.
Oh yeah, look at this.
Is that rain or fog?
I think it's just fog.
need a personal call from you. Yeah, that's that's crazy. I don't even see how they can claim that. Like it's obviously like an AI robot. Like obviously like they're not calling you personally for like the warnings. Have you all seen that out there? Yeah, we got a we got a breaking news live view of fog.
Some violent fog.
This fog just took a serious turn right on Route 16.
Sarcasm is not allowed here. Okay, Mr. Help.
You say so. Help's the boss. Everyone got to listen to help.
Okay. Well, I can't get a view on these storms. We have a view of fog and you guys are just have to deal with it.
And you'll see a winter storm warning has been issued for these areas.
Storm warning over there in Colorado with accumulations wow up to over a foot above 11,000 ft.
So, if you live 11,000 ft in a Colorado mountain, watch out.
We got a picture over here in weather circle from Hannah Goodwin. Oh, a I love the little Spongebob pajamas.
Looks like he's like trying to measure which way the wind's d the window direction is going.
Thanks for sending that in. That's very cute, Hannah.
Am I allowed to send a screenshot we took from traffic cams? Absolutely.
Absolutely. We encourage that here.
traffic cameras. We might be able to look at these guys over in Texas. I don't know if you guys want to see these. Does anybody from Texas want to see what these storms look like?
Maybe we could see a dying storm. Those are cool to see.
Trying to follow in your footsteps since he's heard your voice a lot. A I know.
Almost feel like family.
All right, let's see what's going on in Texas. Can we capture a rain shower live on stream?
Oh, it's wet.
Great cloud.
We did it.
Some people say I'm the best. I don't want to brag or anything, but really good at finding wet streets and clouds.
As you can see, these storms in Texas are not doing anything. So, which is good. That's what we wanted to see.
That's what the model said just a little while ago. And it looks like they are spot on.
And in Arkansas, just in case people are tuning in, it is still looking as we expected. Very weak storms.
They're trying though.
There still some mergers happening. We might eventually see one of these guys try to become severe if we can get enough mergers.
Yeah, they're not even close to being severe right now, though, thankfully.
That gray cloud's about to explode.
Y'all are hilarious.
Watch out.
I'm checking on our on our stormchasers out there. We got Justin He's gone to Subway.
He's getting his He's getting his storm fuel, his instability.
Stormfront TV1 says, "I'm sorry. I'm not paying for a fourth radar app." Are you talking about Weather Circle? It's only a dollar.
I'd take a serious look at it. We got a lot of stuff on this app for a dollar.
So maybe it can replace one of your radar apps. And we even got level two next radar that has shadows. Oo, shadows.
Looks like it's floating.
Although our radar could be faster, but it's faster than some apps, not all of them. Mainly just need better servers. Thank you, Sassy, for being a member for 27 months. Thank you so much.
2 years and 3 month anniversary. Thank you. You're in debt. I feel you. Then cancel all your radar subscriptions except for one.
Oh yeah, the radar um is free on Weather Circle.
Technically, the only thing you really have to pay for is like photos and like some of our other pointless things that are on that app.
Yeah, I know you guys only use Weather Circle when I'm live, but that's okay.
You know, it does have that feel to it.
you know, where you know, when I'm live, you guys post on it cuz I'm live and I can report on it. So, it's helpful. But eventually, we want to get weathercircle.app to the point to where when I'm not live, there's just so many people on it that they could get their own clout without me being live.
But for now, we only have like 2,000 people that that have signed up for the app and only like 200 paid users or something like that. So, it's not super busy app, but eventually it'll get there.
Especially if everybody keeps posting cute pet and and baby photos and there's no one there. Yeah, it's kind of a ghost town. I go on there every now and then, too, and there's like no one posting.
to be for to be fair. I usually go live when there's actual weather happening.
So, it's also kind of the time to post.
Usually, when I'm not live, there's not much happening. But, I mean, I'm sure some of y'all are getting snow or something.
Is Alabama going to get tornadoes? It's possible. We're still monitoring the threat. I will say I'm not really bullish on Wednesday, like at all.
Just seems like a classic southeast slotfest. I would say like this.
Something like this in central Alabama.
That's where we might see our tornadoes there. Like maybe a little bit of a QLCS tornado threat.
It's pretty much all I'm seeing.
But uh yeah, our Let's see if the RFS even shows prefrontal storms.
Yeah, the the Rufus model does show a storm over there in like Ridgeland, but as you can see, the lapse rates around it are around five.
So, not the best environment. Could still be severe, but going to be kind of similar to what these storms are doing.
Although with more forcing, even in a lower lapse rates environment, you can still get severe weather. It's just very hard to get surface based like tornado activity, tornatic activity.
Also today looking for Arkansas so far.
Uh well for Arkansas we have had a total of zero severe thunderstorm warnings and zero tornado warnings. So it's going exactly as I forecasted at least.
Oh, we've got a cute pet photo alert from Sandy over here in Tennessee.
No.
What kind of dog is that? Is it like a beagle?
I can't tell.
It looks like he's in his It looks like he's in his prime environment, though.
I guess a new severe thunderstorm warning back over here in Ohio. A little update over here near Middleton, Palestine, and they just extended this into Pennsylvania. That's going to be for Newcastle, uh, Lwood City, and Big Beaver.
Let's get our PA cameras up.
Wait, I have no PA Storm Trackers is chasing today. Would they happen to be chasing in Pennsylvania?
No, they're in Arkansas, of course. All right. Um, let me do this really quick.
Oops.
We'll replace our uh Texas cameras for now.
Let's see if we can get a look what's going on with this storm.
It's going towards Newcastle, which is just south of Highway 80. There are cameras here. Going be pretty dark out here though, so I'm not sure how much we'll actually see. You can kind of tell there's a storm back there. Maybe we'll see some lightning.
Official bust.
I hate calling it a bust because the forecast was pretty obvious yesterday, but it kind of in my mind was never supposed to do much anyways.
What's today looking like? Um, I wouldn't be worried.
Wouldn't be worried. I'd be aware though.
We do have storms trying to mature out over here. Um, right now their cloud tops are sitting about 20,000 ft. We do have a storm just cracking over 30,000 feet though. uh over here near Clarksville, which is the tallest storm we've had this far.
Typically, when it comes to severe weather, we're looking for cloud tops around 45 to 50,000 ft.
And we are starting to see a little bit more initiation further down to the south near Paris and Clarksville.
Things are getting started, but our lapse rates are dropping like flies.
Did I see your photo? Let me check it. I didn't I I forgot to bring up my uh I did. We got uh Stormchaser James Levertu. Is that you?
He posted over here in Tex Arcana. He said, "Looking good here in Tex Arcana."
Nice.
Nice. Nice. Is that a Love's Gas Station back in the background?
Thanks for letting us know, Mr. James Lebertu.
Check back over here in the Texas region. Yeah, these storms are they're still struggling.
They are a fizzling.
A triple R could do this weird thing where supercells popped up like four hours after it forecasted like it did on a 15% tour risk day. What are you talking about?
Not quite clear to me what you meant.
Think about today or tomorrow.
You typically see the models. If there's going to be like a surprise, it's usually like in a in an environment like a kinematic environment. Like our overall pattern here, we got a pretty weak surface low.
um that is bringing in the really the minimal amount of forcing that we're seeing right now, which is why the air isn't really cold a lot, which is why our lapse rates are low. Uh which is why we're not really seeing uh really big surface response. We're seeing a little surface response.
Um and and yeah, so when you typically have those weaker systems and you have a bunch of failure modes, it's you usually get a lot of things that are there technically that could support certain risks. Uh, but a lot of times they get mistimed.
Like for instance, these storms fired a little bit too late. Our lapse rates are gone.
Oh, on my Discord. Um, I shall check.
When did he post? I'm assuming it's this one. Is your name beans on Discord?
Was posted by beans on Discord.
They're claiming might be a land spout near Florida.
Thanks for sharing.
Mr. Beans, let's go check back over here in Pennsylvania. I do want to see if we can catch at least what this storm is doing near the surface. Maybe we can catch some lightning.
It is getting quite dark out there though.
There is a severe thunderstorm warning over here in Newcastle, Pennsylvania.
That is where our camera is located here. 60 mph winds are possible.
Uh, Clinton, what?
There's a lot of Clintons out there and not all of them are cities.
Yeah, our strongest ones are likely on this leading edge down here. Still heading in a new beaver shortly with some 60 mph winds. Again, this is on the Ohio and Pennsylvania border.
Yeah. Still not really much to note here. The storm does seem to be maturing a little bit though.
Cloud tops are very low. I imagine our next uh next scan up there that might be might be uh a little bit taller.
Yeah, if you guys have any questions, feel free to ask them in chat like for tomorrow's threat or even for today's uh threat still.
We don't really have a whole lot to talk about, so we have a lot of time to go over uh just the latest information.
Got a new post over here from Hannah Goodwin on weathercircle.app.
A view from Wolf City, Texas.
of some clouds.
Nice little clouds. Thanks for sharing.
Glad they don't look ominous.
Is it a bust?
Um, I wouldn't I would I wouldn't start using the word bust yet, but uh if there was like a prediction market on today's storm on how many tornadoes will happen today, I would put one.
That would be my official guest guess.
0 to one if they had that.
What time are you good? Uh, pretty much once those laps rates uh start falling big time over there.
Go bring back up the HR.
Yeah, I mean the models are saying that, you know, these storms are going to struggle anyway. So, you're pretty much done now.
What's the app to use? Uh, it's weathercircle.app.
You can do it on browser. You can install it from the browser onto your home screen.
It's my app. I made it with my bare hands.
Do I think today will bust? I give it like a 90% chance, but I think it's still possible. I mean, every now and then, even in with, you know, really crappy thermodynamic dynamics, we get a bunch of mergers and then you see a storm try. So, theoretically, is that still technically possible today? Sure.
The forecast is is not in the storm's favor, though.
tomorrow's risk. Uh I'm still a little bit unsure about tomorrow. Um for instance, so I'll show you kind of the progression of how tomorrow's thinking has gone.
We've never really had a whole lot of forcing down here and the lapse rates have always look kind of like crap.
Um and so I'm expecting something like this to actually happen where we get a lot of small cells in our open warm sector. These would be the storms that would turn into a 10% tornado risk, like a hatch tornado risk, and then we could transition into more of a briefer and weaker tornado risk as we go into overnight with this line segment that extends from mid Mississippi into Alabama.
Um, but it would be these storms right here. And as you can see, they're not really looking big and bad at all because our lapse rates are so low. Our forcing is also weak. Do have instability down there, but it's just not a very organized like upper level low or upper level or lower level low here. So, my thoughts right now is I'm skeptical, very skeptical about tomorrow. We've seen this play out multiple times where our surface lapse rates are too low in the southeast and then nothing happens. Um, technically, kinematically speaking, our windshare will be there. So, if we do get mature storms out in our open warm sector, we'll definitely have to keep an eye on them. So, there's still a little bit of conditionality. I'm not as confident as I am in Arkansas right now as I am down here, but uh definitely a day to look out for if we come to like our earlier model runs. I'm not sure how far back we can go. I think it was like last night zero Z where we had the supercells pop up in the warm sector. Yeah. So, our models were showing this before and you can also see the lapse rates were got a little bit higher getting up into the sixes back over here near Louisiana uh near Hazelhurst and Bay Springs and our storms were able to convect a little bit more and mature a little bit more. Uh, but if we go over to our most recent run, the 18Z model, and you can see that our lapse rates, these little oranges, they don't really congeal into anything. You know, they're very light oranges. Maybe we can get up in there to like the mid5s. But again, you need about six° lapse rates to really sustain severe weather. And it also looks like our models are indicating uh when I looked at the 500 mibars earlier today, we have a little bit less forcing in this regimen as well. But you can see we have very healthy photographs, a lot of turning with height. Um, but our the service lapse rates are are a little bit too low. A little bit too low. So, it is an unsure day.
So, we're getting another storm try to happen over here near Cole Hill in Clarksville there in Arkansas.
Uh, eastern Texas tomorrow. I think it's also pretty conditional down there.
Yeah, maybe some rain showers uh by 4 pm. A couple instances of severe weather possible, but you can see your lapse rates over there are super low. It's going to be hard to get really any sustained superc cells or hail or even damaging winds in that kind of environment. I mean, you're looking right now of what uh storms. This is like as kinematically good of an environment you can get for tornadoes without the thermodynamics. So, you know, it'll probably be less than what this is doing to be honest.
Look super messy in Arkansas tonight with the storms. Yeah, still could be some surprises, but uh I'm putting a low chance on that. We got some cells trying to happen here and uh the only thing I can see that looks anywhere dangerous is sidelobe contamination which is not a true signal. So I mean we just got a couple of storms that are very shallow in height. Uh and they're not even really close to severe sever severity at all.
Typically if we see purples on this uh vertically integrated liquid that indicates that our updrafts are strong enough especially when you pair that with higher cloud tops our updrafts would be strong enough to support some quarter size hail. We're not even anywhere near that. We're still in the blues. We got to go through the blues, yellows, in the reds, and then get up in those purples. So, all right, let's come back over here to Pennsylvania where the most interesting thing in the United States is happening when it comes to weather. Uh, still got some uh stronger winds now moving into the Newcastle area. So, let's come back over to this camera and uh see what is going on here. Uh, there's Newcastle.
We'll go southern Newcastle. So, let me try to get like a better lit cam than the one we were using. Might not happen.
There's not a whole lot of cameras here.
Probably our best one.
Take your time. Take your time.
Why is it doing that?
Show me the video, please.
Did that camera die?
It's being very stubborn. There we go.
Oh, yep. We've got rain on one of our cameras for the first time today.
We have found the storms.
We have one severe thunderstorm warning in the United States and that is this storm right here.
We'll see. We'll wait for like a minute.
See if we see any uh lightning.
Oh, Clinton in Arkansas. Yeah, I'm not worried about Arkansas right now. I'll start worrying about it when we start to see some changes in our atmospheric profile, but our lapse rates are diving off of a cliff. Uh, our sur our our surface is about to become capped out.
The storms that are firing there are sitting at around 500 jewels per kilogram of instability. And usually that's an overestimate, so it might be even lower.
Yeah, give it about an hour and our uh our environment should really start to cap out.
We're really just here I mean like like the title says the title says uh tornado threat coverage question mark because I'm not even sure we're really going to have any a tornado warning today um with live storm chases. Then it says, "Could be just a forecast hopefully."
So, you know, it's a good opportunity to ask me uh questions about your area.
That's what it really is.
Okay. No lightning.
Signal received.
Message received.
What do I mean by capped out? So, uh, perfect example of that would be like what Dallas was like earlier today.
All right. Uh, let me get my pen out.
All right. So you see this little white line here and then this right here that's your temperatures and then this green actually let me remove that. So this red line is your temperatures. This green is the due point. And as you can see uh we got a bar up here on the left that indicates how high we're looking up into the atmosphere. And this is the ground level here on the red line. Uh, and you can see that we got some 71 due points near the surface, 81 degree temperatures over there earlier today in Dallas, Texas.
And but then as you get higher into the atmosphere, it got warmer than the surface and then drier than the surface.
When you get a warmer drier pocket in the uh, you know, around the 925 to 700 mibar range, that is a capping inversion. And essentially what that does is any moisture or any storm that tries to rise into this area runs into that drier warmer air. You know, in order talking about strong updrafts and and lapse rates, right, you want a good gradient. Uh so you want uh you know, colder temperatures a loft and also uh really warm temperatures without this little bulge there. If you don't have this bulge and this line continues all the way through here like this, then you have a what you really have is an EML there and a wide open um profile here for a storm to fire and to uh sustain itself.
But uh but that's what a capping version is. It basically just dries out the top of the storm um and and disrupts the gradient uh forcing uh these storms to behave themselves.
All right, latest scans out over here near Clarksville. We're still seeing some thunderstorms out here.
Uh, this with a little bit of lightning.
They are still very much struggling.
How's Boston, Massachusetts looking? I think Boston's going to be all right.
Uh, I know.
Yeah, the the the severe risk is north of you and we're not expecting any severe storms nearby. You uh might see something that you might classify as um heat lightning. If we get some lightning near like Manchester, you would see it. It would seem like you're getting flashes out of nowhere, but that's not actually heat lightning.
It's just lightning very far away to where you can't even see the storm. It still lights up the sky, though.
Check back over here to Dallas. Just making sure. Yeah, every single storm has completely fizzled um into a little pocket of water vapor.
Looking good.
And they are in the main area of concern honestly. But just judging off the forecast, I would say up here kind of our main area of concern and could stay that way over here near Elwood City. This one storm is severe warned that's going to be uh heading into uh Potterville and Harlandburgg, Pennsylvania. Here is not This is not even really like an uncertain environment. This is just more of just like a really crappy environment. Well, we're still watching for some surprises.
Got a lot of sidelobe contamination on this storm.
Wish we had a view on that.
I don't think we have a closer radar.
Unfortunately, our storms are going into a uh pretty uh pretty big radar hole, so it's going to be kind of hard to see what's happening near the surface.
These storms aren't severe. Very low cloud tops.
I would still uh I would say technically capable of um some damaging winds and hail eventually, but it's going to be a while.
Love that the state pops up. So, we know what we're where you're talking about.
Yep. Yeah, I just figured that out. Uh, we have it on Weather Circle. Um, but, you know, Weatherwise doesn't have that actually baked into their app. I had to make an app or a program that reads the debugging logs of Weatherwise cuz in the debugging portion of their program, it shows the coordinates and where the center of the screen is. And so, in the center of the screen, that's really all we need to track, which is perfect. So, we just take those coordinates. Uh, that's actually the coordinates right there that come from the debugging program. And then that shows uh Arkansas.
Do you eating food? Do I eat food? Um, yes.
In fact, I do. I know it might surprise some of you guys, but I do in fact uh eat coma.
There are so many states with the same name with the same names. So that's awesome. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, a lot of people requested that. That's why I put it into uh weather circle with the uh radar state thing that pops up down there. But, you know, since we don't use weather circle for the radar coverage, I was frustrated that, you know, we didn't have that. But thankfully we've been able to get it back. But yeah, it can be confusing, especially when you're moving around a lot. You got a lot going on. It's hard to track which state you're in. The state borders can get a little thin. Um, and so it's always good to just, you know, to just know. I mean, somebody in Dallas, Texas probably knows if I'm zoomed into Kaufman, uh, that that's near Dallas, Texas and probably in the state of Texas. But if you live outside of Texas and you're in a risk as well and you're wondering about your area, you might think, "Oh, well, what if Kaufman's like a city right next to me that I don't know." But now it's pretty simple. It sounds like something when you think about it for like 2 seconds that doesn't really make sense, but when you think about it for like 10 seconds, you start to understand. Oh yeah, I can see how it could be a little bit disorienting.
I just hang on weather circle live and chat. I can't figure out Discord for three and a Discord is confusing to be fair.
I see what Vince is talking about. Let's let's let's ease drop on our stormchasers again.
I think he's running away from the storms.
>> Okay.
Okay.
>> I think he's on a phone call.
>> Okay. I love you.
>> Oh, I don't want to ease drop on that.
That's a personal moment. Let's go ease drop on Justin instead.
Justin has zero audio.
Does he know this?
Let me uh type in his chat.
I will alert. Oh, >> oh, he does have audio.
I think he's got very heavy sound comp or uh sound silencing.
on his live stream so you can't hear like the car noises.
Okay, what's going on here? Why is this chat not popping up? Let me refresh this.
I hate the stupid feature where you have to exit out of the chat in order to make the screen big.
Patrick's apparently uh chasing summer snow.
Okay, it's just broken in Colorado. Do you guys want to see southern snow in Colorado?
>> All right. Hey, Rich.
>> Okay, I'm going have to wait a while for that to uh load, I guess. I don't know why it's taking a year and a half. Once that loads, we'll get that up. I do want to bring up Patrick because I want to look at some snow. It's been a while.
Why not? Some summer snow. That sounds crazy, but it's actually pretty common.
Um, pretty common in uh in Colorado in the higher elevations.
Look at this snow isn't up because I currently um don't have my computer up. I uh >> this is live. Technically, I am homeless right now. Uh because I'm out of my old place and the lease of my new place hasn't started yet, but I've got a a buffer of a couple days between when I'm going to be moving in and >> new meoscale discussion. I'm not seeing it.
>> My new start. So, got a couple days. Basically, what I'm doing is I'm taking this vehicle out and I'm going to be parking it. Um, I I got a rental unit, like a storage unit out in Marian, Illinois. So, I'm going to go park this inside of one of the closed storage units in Marian. I'm going to take a bus back and go pick up my old car.
>> My goodness.
>> And then >> Yeah, there's the snow in Colorado in May.
Quite the Hey, the the chat finally loaded.
There we go.
Yeah, storms continue to struggle uh out over here in Arkansas.
Little little spaghetti noodle storms is what we call them. Oh, we got a new post on Weather Circle.
has no location data. Oh, the you got him chained up. Jeez.
Oh, that's a she.
She must like jump over fences and stuff.
You hound dog. Poster corgis, too. All right.
The rope probably wasn't strong enough for that dog. them hounds, man. They run fast and they're strong. Thanks for posting that. I do appreciate it.
As we check back in with our only severe thunderstorm warning in the entire United States, still pushing off to the east with 60 mph winds heading towards Portersville.
Put that in a loop for a little bit.
Oh, WPCMCD.
Gotcha. Gotcha.
Dude, what is going on?
I feel like all my apps are being slow right now.
Not going to lie, that's uh some pretty impressive snowfall that's cooling you off. I got you guys.
Was it hot in your area today? We'll come over here and look at some live snow in Colorado.
Don't doggy for the chain. Hey, it's only bad when it's not attached to a collar and it's a choke chain and you leave them there constantly and never bring them in.
Like your dogs seem very wellfed and groomed.
He gets to go outside with the big dogs.
You got to you got to tie them down in the backyard or they're going to jump the fence or just have very tall fences.
But those hounds, man, I mean, they're not not there's not a whole lot that can stop a hound. But I mean, they're they're bred to climb trees to hunt raccoons and other various animals.
You're a fence builder, too. Yeah. Good luck.
YouTube now says this is a featured stream. All right.
I don't know what that means, but we'll take it. Sounds like something good.
We're even getting an outflow here.
Oh, let me change that to or to blue to match the colors of the outflow.
Outflow here, which signifies some cold air now starting to pop out in front of some of our Arkansas storms. Another uh drop in the bag for uh not good for the storms.
Hailor in northern Nevada. Yeah, there was a there was one earlier. Is it still going? Yep. Got a nice little hailer out over here. Points. This is almost severe in Nevada over here near Bow Wawi, Nevada. Moving down to the south uh and west towards Crescent Valley.
Decent little hailer there. Probably a lot of little hail in that storm right now.
Probably looks similar to Colorado, but not not snow, but hail.
Right. Right. Right. Clinton, Arkansas.
Glad we figured that out. Yeah, you're in a tornado watch. I honestly wouldn't be super worried. I I would continue to be aware. I would say there is a theoretical thing that can happen that can cause a tornado still up here, and that is you get a storm that gets a bunch of mergers. But, you know, you don't see that. You're not going to see might not even see severe weather. So, I'd be keeping my eye out mainly for like damaging ws, maybe some hail, lightning, rain, and on off chance um you know, some severe wind, some severe hail, which is 1 in in diameter. Um, and uh on the very off chance, a tornado.
I would liken our tornado chances up here to 2%.
Maybe a little bit less than 2%.
We just got our new um mezoscale analysis data in.
you know, right there. I mean, we still have a wide open warm sector. It's just nothing's going to fire in it. But well, as you can see here, all these storms that we're watching in lapse rates that are likely below five.
So, just a really crapp crappy surface thermodynamic profile. Uh, our storms are sitting in around 500 jewels per kilogram. So, on top of that, they don't really have a whole lot of moisture or fuel. And also, that area is getting capped out.
So, where those storms are is there is a capping inversion building in uh there. Also, our windshare is leaving these storms behind by the way as well.
It's all the way over there in Tennessee. Thankfully, we're not going to see any storms fire in Tennessee.
So, yeah. Um, still good news. No big changes.
Still looks like a very untorornic and also a not a very severe environment.
Storm relative elicity though is supposed to Yeah, look at that. 400 storm relative elicity there in central Arkansas.
So that's elevated.
But again, thermodynamics are so terrible, it doesn't really matter.
Although if we had a mature storm like near that environment, I I I would still be using like tornatic word wording on it.
But we don't got no storms down there thankfully.
I'm just hoping like is is Vince leaving the storm?
He's going down a little rock.
Is he done for the day? Let me listen back into him. See if we can get get a hint of what his next moves are.
I was hoping we'd see a storm.
I think Paigy was thinking about going live.
Maybe they're near a storm.
>> You have to avoid people after this week and like just the hatred and stuff on the internet. It's like I am avoiding these chaser people. Oh, no.
They're going live tomorrow with >> the exception of like friends, but I just I I don't know.
It looks like he's traveling to the target tomorrow.
I think today's lack of convection could possibly increase the chances for storms tomorrow. Um, you know, the tomorrow storm chances are mainly due to the cloud cover. We got a lot of cloud cover out over here.
Like we'll just generally have instability tomorrow, but the cloud cover is going to be pretty meager.
Let me see what our latest uh HR models are saying about that.
Uh, we'll change this to where is it? Is it here? there. Yeah, a total cloud cover.
So, yeah, you can see that uh overnight we're going to get a lot of cloud cover kind of filter into the southeast and it doesn't really break throughout the day.
You see some small breaks near where those storms are, but nothing like breaking all the way to the surface. All this blue is like 100%. We have like 45. So, yeah. I mean, if if we wake up tomorrow and uh you know, the lapse rates are pretty low and then the cloud cover is is is very widespread, it's going to be hard to fix that environment. So, I mean, I definitely think we're going to get a severe threat with these line of storms that comes through eventually and maybe a couple of tornadoes with that, like some briefer and weaker ones, but definitely not definitely not too much of a strong tornado risk. maybe could eek out like a brief strong tornado.
That could theoretically be possible if the environment isn't like uh completely scraped over by then.
Like there's drama when when is there not the weather community, man?
Everybody's just everybody's like I I mean I we'll come over here to the calming snow to kind of balance out what I'm about to say.
You know h how many times in the history of the world do nerds get a chance to have a spotlight?
I'll let y'all give a couple of your answers in there. Yes, there's a couple nerds that get the spotlight, but when has there ever been an opportunity this big for such a large group of nerds to hop into the spotlight?
So, they're all scrambling. They all want to be number one. They all want the spotlight. They never had to deal with this before. They weren't popular in high school. They sat down and they just read their books and got real smart and now all of a sudden there's an opportunity for spotlight and there's just so much infighting.
It's ridiculous.
It's sad.
But there wouldn't be that much infighting if you know there's a lot of things that go wrong just in general.
You know, you have stormchasers that run red lights in the middle of a city. You got stormchasers that'll backstab each other. I even heard stories of stormchasers slashing tires of their competition.
You've got people stealing app ideas, people um you know getting too greedy, asking for too much money.
You got all these different things. It's just bringing the worst. You know, fame brings out the worst of everything.
That's why I say Oh, is that car okay?
Okay. But yeah, that's why I say like that's why I'm glad I like I I wasn't I'm not supposed to be here. I'm not greedy enough to have this many subscribers.
Well, I got lucky.
I'm very fortunate.
But, you know, there there's all these things that go into it, but it it really really it boils down the root cause of it is it's a scramble.
The spotlight's on us for not just like, you know, the people the very few people that get hired in local TV stations or the very few people that get hired for the weather channel.
Um, you know, it's actually like, you know, YouTube's a big space. There's a lot of people that, you know, it's it's a it's a lower barrier to entry and so you have all these people hopping in all at the same time and, you know, they all want to be number one and they don't want their audience to go anywhere else.
And it it just gets nasty.
It just gets nasty, man. If you don't know how to separate yourself from all of that, um, it drives you mad.
It drives you mad.
So, you know, the best thing to do is to just uh try not to contribute to it unless it like comes into your sphere.
And when it does come into your sphere, you know, you got to speak out about it.
But that's the thing. It's like if you are a public facing person in the weather community, drama's going to make it to your front step. That's just a guarantee.
Like I made Weather Circle app app out of out of a whim and then someone's stealing that idea instead of respecting it. Like there's just no respect. People just want to be number one so bad they're willing to throw anybody under the bus.
It's it's sad.
But you know, humans aren't perfect and that's one of the places where we suffer a lot is greed.
So, it's honestly not super surprising, but you would hope at least the weather community would have been one of those communities that could rise above that.
But, I mean, there's like no collaboration whatsoever in the weather community at all.
And it's for that exact same reason.
Like, I'll raid people because I don't really care. I like spreading like giving smaller streamers an opportunity to shine. Give them a give them a microphone. But I mean, for the most part, people don't do that.
They want to keep their audiences to themselves. They and they don't want to share and they don't want to collaborate too much. You know, if it's especially with competition, like you'll never see Max Velocity and Ryan Hall on one screen because they both in their heads, they want to be number one.
There's just so much drama in certain places. Yeah, there's a lot of drama. It can get overwhelming. I can understand that. It overwhelms me. I I sometimes see myself getting caught up into it when it makes it to my front doorstep.
But I mean, that's my two cents on it. I don't know what causes it.
I was waxy. Looking good. Looking I mean Texas looking good today and tomorrow.
I'm just not really seeing much. Maybe these storms um back over here near like Mount Pleasant Hooks and Ashdown could get severe, but I'm not really seeing anything that like tips me off to like a uh a strong event over there in northeastern Texas. So, I think most of Texas will be fine tomorrow. Uh my main concern would be if these storms like you're going to see me start to say some uh some a little bit more elevated words tomorrow if we wake up and the lapse rates are just overperforming as that'll be concerning.
Um but yeah, I mean we're going to have plenty of instability. Our atmosphere is going to be there for the most part except for our lapse rates and forcing and those are two very important parts.
can't really have a severe like you got to have all the ingredients and I don't I really don't feel like people focus on lapse rates enough.
They can be a big indicator that there's something wrong thermodynamically like what happened tonight. I mean we called this yesterday and especially today as well.
So and it was pretty obvious.
Did I miss something? No. People are just talking about how how there's so much drama in the weather community. So, I just gave my little two cents on it.
Don't turn out like them. Don't trust me. I'm not. It's impossible. I couldn't be like that. I I just can't. It's just not possible for for me. My entire life has been around giving the voice to the little guy. There is nothing that can convince me. I mean, that's 32 years of brainwashing myself with Evan propaganda. All right, let's take a look at the radar.
See where our snow conditions are right now.
There's always drama in the weather community.
Always something going on like that big move.
>> Like our heaviest snow is up near Centennial. So, we got a couple snow bands. I will say I won't I won't say the reason why, but that big move to Weatherfront that all those people just did, that was based off of drama.
It's all drama, man. It's really hard to like go on to WX Twitter and just find someone doing a regular forecast and that's it.
Back to piano music, it seems.
I like the piano music.
I'm not worried about I used to be worried about all the drama, but I might just get into that age where like I get it now why people don't like call people out directly because it just opens up a can of worms. Like I'll I'll do some satire on it for sure. Um, and I will uh, you know, but the main thing that I want to show is that, you know, when you come to my channel, you can you can count on me to try my very freaking hardest to get you an accurate forecast. That's what I want to show. You know, if that if that calls for big scary words and it's a day that can do that, then obviously I'm going to be using big scary words because it's a big scary day. But I want when you come to my channel to know that there is a scale, right? If for every little setup, I'm just like, "This is super bad. Watch out. Things are going to explode. You've never seen this before. It's super rare." When it's not, then when the actual super rare, a storm that's about to explode or a huge storm or a big storm comes along, you're not going to really know like, "Oh, is this like worse than last time? Is this actually going to do it? Or is it going to be like last time when you said that and then nothing happened?
Like imagine if I overhyped this event like everybody else. Like they all look really stupid right now.
And so it's just like, you know, and and and it's not like it's impossible. There are signs when these events come.
So I know weather's hard to predict, but if you try hard enough, you can get kind of close.
Everything is a calamity. It's always calamity, man. the world. This whole world is calamity.
You know, there's one thing that grounds me and grounds me at all time. And I would suggest using this anytime you get sad. It always picks me up. the the the true impossibility that you are on this earth and not only on this earth conscious enough to know that you're on this earth to know that you're alive to know your place in the universe is so rare and unbelievable.
Doesn't matter if you're poor or rich or in the hospital.
you should theoretically in my mind and that's how I live my life but you don't have to do it but I'm just saying you're still super freaking lucky because you're just here in the first place and you got to experience being here and that's what's that that's what keeps me going and even through all this hard stuff it's like I'm still here I exist and that's one of the biggest gifts and I think people take that uh for advantage or take advantage of that too much and they forget about that act.
It's like, you could have literally been a worm.
You could be on the end of a fishing hook right now getting swallowed by a bass. You could be a fly on my door and I slap you with a spatula.
But you're not. You could be a bacteria on Mars underneath the soil near the core of the planet, but you're not. You're here as a human.
You actually get to understand and learn and and make mistakes.
still might be a worm one day. You never know. You never know. My theory on uh on on death is is pretty simple. Um and so and according to me, uh you very well could be a worm someday.
It's not even really positivity, you know. I feel like the word positivity is like um is is like it kind of puts like a fake kind of vibe on it. I don't really like the word positivity.
Um what I I I it's it's to me that's logic. It's not positivity, it's just logic. It's like you are logically and factually one of the luckiest things to have existed in the universe.
you know, might like to be bacteria on Mars at this point. Fair point. That's a fair point.
And you know what? I believe you might get to experience that. Maybe not on Mars, but somewhere in the universe.
Is there going to be storms in Hot Springs, Arkansas?
Um, it's a pretty low chance. It's a pretty low chance. We're still kind of waiting to see if this if we're actually even going to get storms to fire. Um, these storms further up north have fired, but with none of them have ever been severe. We have been live for 2 hours and 30 minutes. We haven't seen one severe thunderstorm warning in Arkansas or one tornado warning.
kind of just here to answer questions about a forecast at this point or to just kind of chat. It's always fun hanging out with you guys.
I I don't think it's I don't think it's um a a crappy term. Um but like the when it was how it was coined and the aura, I think is the best word to say it around the word positivity.
It's like a It's like a a word that was taught back in the day to like always be happy even though you're your life is extremely crappy.
Like like I'm not saying like if you injure yourself you should smile because you're you know you're you're the most rare thing on the un in the universe or one of the most rare things in the entire universe.
Um although thinking that might help.
That's not at all what I'm saying. In my mind, positivity is faking through emotions. Uh I think you should totally feel those emotions, but you know, uh but also at the same time remind yourself that like, hey, at least you're here.
Light rotation in Nevada now. No, I mean, you know what? We'll probably get a tornado report out of Nevada, knowing how these days go. The weather's always happening somewhere.
And there was for a little bit it seems.
Yeah, like right there, you know, there was a little little tiny bit of rotation right there. That that could have been something. Maybe a little land spout.
Like, oh my god, I was a human. Now I'm eating dirt.
Uh well, you know, the good thing so I'll just give you all since we're talking about the subject. So my view of death is that um where were you before you were alive and yet here you are alive? Now that might sound too simple, but if you think about it for a little bit, it makes a lot of sense.
It actually took me a while to come up with that thought.
Like before you were alive, you were dead, but yet you came alive. So my theory is that if you die, you will eventually be alive again.
You will have zero recollection. It's not like reincarnation. You'll have zero recollection of the past just like you did when you came alive. this time.
Um, so you know, if you do come back as a worm, you'll probably won't be like, "Well, I was a human and now I'm a worm.
That kind of sucks.
You'll probably be like, "Well, I am this thing now and I must eat dirt.
Yeah. To be fair though, if you guys have different beliefs on all the things that I'm saying, I'm totally open to it.
Uh I don't poo poo people by believing in different religions or anything like that. I totally respect you guys. Uh no matter what you believe in. I understand. We're talking about things that really nobody knows about. Let's be honest.
We don't really honestly no one can really claim to know 100% where you're going after all of that happens. But um yeah, I just want I just want you guys to know I'm not trying to like change your beliefs. I'm just kind of expressing uh what I what I believe in those aspects because we have nothing to talk about. We have no severe thunderstorm warnings. The storms in Arkansas are lightning producers at worst and it doesn't look like they're going to become anything else.
So, we're just kind of hanging out, listening to piano music, watching this dude clean his windshield wipers in Colorado in May. Not because of rain, but because of snow.
Yeah, Hannah, you're good.
Uh, theoretically talking, uh, Cyberdine, that would be possible. You could technically now there are so many possibilities in life um theoretically you could make the argument um that you will eventually be reborn as yourself again after becoming a worm bacteria and pretty much every other life form that has ever existed.
Um you might eventually cycle back into a universe that is exactly like ours um with the exact same planet with the exact same people. Theoretically, according to physicists, that is possible.
Have a business email. I'm a I'm a dev with some spare cycles.
I have a few ideas that might help you with your coverage. Not sell anything.
I'd be happy to donate both.
Um like what are you thinking? Yeah, let me um here. Um, join our Discord and then send me a friend request. Do you know how to work Discord? Hopefully. I barely do, but here. Send me a friend request and we'll chat there.
I can't really think of anything that I currently need right now, but I'm limited. Um, I find myself pretty creative, but I'm definitely uh limited.
And you you might have some really cool ideas I've never thought of before. So interested to hear your take.
But uh you know, one of the things that you might want to help with is something like this weather circle. This is my app.
Um it's not perfect and there could probably be uh some some things that run a little bit more smoothly on it.
Uh, I code it all by myself with a little bit of help of Enthropic, but watched a video about Saturn last night.
That planet has me kuruffled.
Saturn, what what has you confled about it? My raw reaction is unimpressed on tomorrow for now. We'll see what the models say tomorrow, but a very classic Dixie slop, barely anything happens type setup. But that lower level sure will increase into the night. I think, you know, if we do see anything happen um a little bit more dangerously, uh it would likely be uh in along uh the leading edge of our gust front. At least for now, those are my thoughts. There are technically some chances that we do get some supercells out here, but right now the uh thermodynamic profiles really aren't really aren't screaming mature cells.
Looks like we lost Vince.
Yeah. Why are we still live?
I think it's fa safe to safe to say that these storms aren't going to do anything.
Theoretically, your clothes could be folded in the dryer when I open it.
That is true.
It's theoretically possible.
We're definitely not live or the weather at this point. There is nothing going on. Although, I will still answer questions if you guys still got got some.
My Saturn. What's freaky about Saturn?
Saturn's the most memorizing memorizing planet that orbits our sun. Yeah, that I like Jupiter.
Jupiter's cool. I think Pluto is bullied.
Uh Neptune is Neptune. Probably one of the least cared about planets in the entire solar system is Neptune.
Uranus could have been that way, but I mean, come on. It's called Uranus.
Uh, Mars is definitely cared about. I like Mars because like we're probably like one core sample away from finding some sort of fossilized bacteria or maybe even fossilized life cuz there's some pretty good theories that Mars could have been habitable back in the day. Venus is crazy uh because it's it's it's it could actually have life uh in the upper atmosphere of it just floating around cuz technically it is habitable on the outer atmosph or like in the upper portions of uh Venus's atmosphere.
Um and Mercury is just terrifying to think about. It's so hot.
Neptune is amazing though. It is. But it's like it's probably one of the least cared about planets. Like let's be honest, Jupiter is freaking cool.
Neptune like it is pretty cool. I think Neptune has winds I forget if it's Uranus or Neptune has like winds up to like 900 miles hour or something like that of the Simpsons. I didn't really watch the Simpsons that much. I think I was watching Pokemon back then.
Yeah, it's Neptune. Gotcha. Gotcha.
It's basically a planet NATO pretty much basically. Yeah. Chazzy, why you whine?
What time is it? Oh, yeah. It is time for your midnight snacks.
Do any planets have tornadoes? Um, so Mars doesn't necessarily have like supercellular tornadoes, but they have some Mars has some pretty impress impressive and uh dangerous dust NATO.
Um, the sun technically has rotating plasma, which you call plasma NATO, but no, but no, there are you need water vapor to have the type of tornadoes that we have.
Um, I'm sure there's like some tornado like storms on Jupiter, but for that you would need a surface. And I think Jupiter doesn't have a surface. Pretty sure it's just like liquid metal, something like that.
There are tornado like things.
The big red spot is a huge gigantic hurricane. Yes.
do a forecast for the big red spot on Jupiter.
Not sure if that's possible. I don't think we have any satellite or weather model runs for that.
Although it I don't think it's far-fetched that eventually we'll do do like moon forecasts.
Doesn't really have an atmosphere.
Wait, never mind. Mars forecasts.
If we do actually um uh inhabit Mars could do like dust storm forecasts and stuff like that.
That'll be the time I'll be like, "All right, guys. Sorry. I'm quitting planet Earth weather and we're officially moving to Mars weather.
tomorrow will explode by 5:00 p.m. All right, thank you so much.
Talk about soundings.
Well, we'll take one over here for tomorrow.
And decent um thermodynamic profile here actually in this one little area. Lapse rates of around 6.2, which is still really low, but maybe just enough to get something started, but there's lack of forcing. Move this up here a bat bit. Uh surface base instability around uh 3,700 cape. No capping inversion.
Decent um photograph there around 25 knots. Not super strong.
Peaks at 30 knots at around uh 847 millibars. uh storm relative of elicity is around um 201 which isn't very strong but it's strong enough to support tornadoes.
Uh but yeah, you know, when we uh look at the model itself, you can see that the forcing problems are going to be an issue.
Uh Storms will struggle to come back to, you know, that was one little spot there with up to uh six uh laps rates. very minimal. Even if you just get to six, it can be still not super favorable for supercells. But you add in the lack of forcing as well, you're definitely going to run into a problem.
Oh my gosh, I haven't had the weather circle chat up this entire time. I'm slacking. You have anything new to look at.
Oh yeah, this guy doesn't have any uh location data. Other hobbies besides watching Evan?
I >> don't come in here much.
>> Oh yeah. Arrowheads.
Nice.
Not just arrowheads, other various tools from our anc or from my ancestors.
Ooh, very nice. Very nice. He got a large collection there. That's really cool. Do you actually like go out and find those?
How about Antarctica? Anything going on there besides cold and snow? Probably windy.
I think Uranus is windy. Yeah, you should probably get that checked out by a doctor.
Coolest moon. Definitely Titan, though.
All right, guys. I think I'm going to get off. Um, we'll raid Justin if he has his raid stuff on.
There's just not much more to talk about right now. But I do appreciate you guys tuning in. I'll keep on watching it. But uh seems like my forecast is holding up.
So great news. Another success.
Yeah, I do really appreciate you guys tuning in. Um I'll keep an eye. I don't think I'm going to see anything that's going to bring me back on live, but just in case. You never know. Every now and then weather does try to do some surprises. I think it's a pretty low chance though. I honestly would not be freaked out in this tornado watch at all. None of these storms are going to be tornatic anytime soon. Uh so I'll keep my eye on it, but it's getting late and that capping inversion is going to start to move in and these storms are going to likely either fizzle or slowly congeal into a line.
Let me see if we can raid Justin. Don't go anywhere yet.
Because if you guys all stay here, you're going to make Justin's day. That is if he has his redirect privileges on and he's out there in Arkansas. So he's if you guys are from Arkansas and watching Oh, he does have his redirect privileges on. Awesome. All right, we're going to raid Justin. He's from Arkansas. He'll probably get keep you guys informed on the showers there. Um, and just give him a shout out and say hello. Show him some love. He's a super humble, really cool guy. Um, and honestly deserves a lot more attention, especially for Arkansas area. He's always live whenever there's like a storm threat in Arkansas. So, if you're if you are in Arkansas uh or our or canen, you guys need to be definitely tuning in to Justin when there's severe weather in your area. uh cuz he's really good at what he does. So yeah, thank you everybody for tuning in.
Uh huge shout out to the Maz. Thank everybody that's donated this stream and uh yeah, we'll uh see you guys tomorrow.
I'm probably going to do a video tomorrow just as like a unlike today because today like the forecast didn't really change that much from my yesterday forecast. I wasn't bullish then still wasn't bullish today. I did do a little post uh just to kind of give you guys an update. Um, and then yeah, I'll do I'll likely do a video tomorrow because uh of the the significance of at least the threat category, not necessarily due to the significance of how I think about it. And I'll give you guys my two cents before things get started. Then we'll see how it pans out.
Um, but yeah, uh, good hanging out with you guys and I will see y'all later.
Peace.
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