Iowa could be big for Democrats in '26

Added: 2026-05-30

[00:00:10]Good morning, Amanda Palmer.

[00:00:11]>> And I'm Jake Sherman.

[00:00:12]>> And welcome to the Daily Punch brought to you by Punchbowl News. It's Friday, May 29th, 2026. Let's get in the mix.

[00:00:17]Here are your Washington headlines of the day. Number one, Democrats are bullish on Iowa. Number two, Republicans try to find a way forward on reconciliation 2.0. And number three, a treat, who's up and who's down in this week's power matrix. It is good to be back with the Daily Punch crew here. A big thank you to everybody on the team who helped us out this week filming and recording the podcast while we were traveling for work, but there is a lot happening despite the fact that this is a congressional recess week. Our very own Max Cohen in Iowa, in Sioux City, I believe, talking about Democrats and how they are dreaming big. I think the question is, is this going to actually come to fruition or not, but man, they are looking to flip the governor's mansion, a Senate seat, and three House districts. That is going to be a big feat.

[00:01:06]>> Yeah, and and and I'll say about our our trip, the people who filled in for us on our team got rave reviews.

[00:01:14]So, maybe there's a future in which we just [laughter] ditch this and sleep until like 6:00 instead of 4:00, but I don't think that's in our future and that's okay.

[00:01:25]>> it. I'd miss seeing you every morning, Jake. Maybe maybe not. I don't know.

[00:01:29]>> I don't think you would.

[00:01:30]There's a lot of people in Democratic politics who think that Democrats should spend a lot more time, money, and energy on a state like Iowa rather than Texas because they think that Texas is not in the end going to vote for James Talarico. I don't know. I'm not predicting one way or the other. I have no idea. I don't have a crystal ball.

[00:01:52]I'm just telling you what I've been hearing. They they spend more money in Iowa where they can win a Senate seat, they can win a governor's mansion, and they could theoretically pick up a bunch of house seats.

[00:02:05]>> Because Iowa is right now an all Republican delegation, and you have an open seat, you have a couple competitive seats represented by Marionette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn. I mean, these are seats that Republicans and Democrats always spend a lot of money on, so Iowa is going to be hot for 2026, and it could be kind of the the focal point for both the Senate majority and the House majority.

[00:02:30]>> Super interesting stuff. I mean, listen, Iowa Democrats have nowhere to go but up, right? So, it's just like >> Yeah, that's right.

[00:02:35]>> They're at an electoral low point, which I think is important to just note, right? What you do have, I mean, there's a lot of buzz about the gubernatorial race, the fact that you've got Democrats who are locked in potentially, you know, able to to turn some of these seats over, which would be a big boon. I mean, this is something we we spent so much time talking about Texas and California and the redistricting in the South following the Supreme Court decision of Calay, but this is something where, you know, you really have Democrats trying to, and Max reports, I think, going on the ground there about kind of some of the enthusiasm, thinking that they actually have a shot here.

[00:03:13]>> I will say, though, one dynamic that is worth thinking about is the governor's race, which is setting the tone for a lot of this. Randy Feenstra, the Republican member of Congress, is in a uh competitive primary, and Rob Sand is a real contender to win there, has cultivated a centrist brand, and that could help set the tone for the rest of the field. And remember, Anna, in a house that is so closely constructed, um that is, you know, a couple seat majority, two seats in Iowa would make a big difference. One seat in Iowa would make a big difference, so very happy that we have Max on the ground in the Hawkeye State.

[00:03:49]>> Iowa. All right, Jake, let's move on to the number two story of the morning. The headline reads GOP pleads with White House on reconciliation. Man, we are still talking about this bill to fund ICE and CBP, and it is now in peril. We saw that, you know, there was an expectation before the Memorial Day recess that Congress was going to move forward. They were going to be able to pass this reconciliation 2.0 in quick order so that they could move on to reconciliation 3.0, but now the controversy over President Donald Trump's $1.8 billion anti-weaponization fund has halted the roughly $70 billion package. Senate GOP leaders have said the White House needs to help them find a way out of the impasse, but the White House hasn't been making any public moves anyway.

[00:04:33]>> And none privately, either. This is the issue. This weaponization fund, which came up last week, and it's a major, major issue for the reconciliation bill.

[00:04:44]And I've as I've said in the past, you know, a lot of Republicans say, "Well, this has nothing to do with the reconciliation bill. This is a a separate issue." Very true, but separate issues often times creep up and impacts other legislation. So, basically, what Senate Republicans are saying is to the White House, "Let us know what you are willing to accept, or we will do it on our own, and you're not going to like it, most likely."

[00:05:10]So, this is something that we're going to have to focus on in the next couple weeks because we're about to reach a legislative logjam. We have Section 702 of FISA expiring in just a couple weeks.

[00:05:20]A third reconciliation package, who the hell knows what's going to happen there.

[00:05:24]A highway bill, government funding at the end of September, and the House only has 40 more days in session between now and election day. So, time to get on it here.

[00:05:34]>> Yeah, it's going to be interesting to see what happens, but I mean, this anti-weaponization fund has become so toxic, Jake. I mean, it's impossible for GOP leaders to secure rank-and-file Republican senators to support it. And I mean, I think we have to note there's a lot of free agents now, you know, when you look at the number of Republicans who are not just willing to do what Donald Trump wants anymore. That number is growing uh particularly uh following the primary uh in Texas with John Cornyn now not up for uh re-election and certainly going to be interested to see how he uh comports himself along with Bill Cassidy and others now with you know that when they don't have to worry about re-election. Are they going to be supportive of the president's agenda?

[00:06:14]>> No.

[00:06:15]>> [laughter] >> Most likely not. Let us be clear.

[00:06:18]>> All right, let's go to the number three story of the morning. The Punchbowl News Power Matrix. This is one of our favorite items. Uh it usually runs in midday, but because we are only AM newsletters with the congressional recess, let's talk about who's up man.

[00:06:32]Xavier Becerra after languishing in single digits for the California governor's race, he is on the up and up, Jake.

[00:06:40]>> Yeah, he is. Jim Clyburn is keeping his seat in Congress for now. South Carolina looks like it's punting on redistricting in a in in a an up that's very close to my interest. Ted Cruz and Maria Cantwell, uh bipartisan duo that released NIL an NIL reform bill, something that we will be covering a lot more in the future. And down, Anna, we can go through these quickly. Three Texans. John Cornyn uh lost his seat to Ken Paxton by 28 points. Al Green also lost his seat uh to Christian Menefee in the Houston area in a redistricting thing. And Chip Roy, the Freedom Caucus leader, outspoken conservative, not going to be the attorney general of the great state of Texas, lost his race to Mae Middleton.

[00:07:25]>> All right, we will leave it there. Thank you all so much for listening. We appreciate it. If you like the Daily Punch, share it on social media, tell your friends. It's the best way to find out about us. And of course, you can go deeper on all these issues and more by going to punchbowl.news. Have a great [music] day, a great weekend, and stay safe, everybody.

[00:07:49]>> Hey.