Oz: Wintry weekend for south-eastern Australia

[00:00:05][music] >> Hello. Kia ora. Good day. It's Thursday, June the 18th. I'm Philip Duncan, and thanks for joining me as we take a look at Australia's weather forecast through to the middle of next week. And at the moment, all the energy, once again, is in the south. Low pressure, which has been very slow moving as it left Western Australia on Monday, and now it's moving over the Great Australian Bight. The thunderstorm weather ahead of it, that's moving a little faster than it's been, and so you're seeing it clearing away from parts of South Australia, but the tail here going back into the Northern Territory with thunderstorms is going to move into Queensland, and we're going to see more thundery weather developing in Queensland over the next couple of days.

[00:00:40]Also, some parts of New South Wales. The rain band, which is highlighted in the green here, a little hard to see for some of you, but that is moving eastwards. It's moving into the western side of Victoria today, and the southwestern and western parts of New South Wales. There may be other areas of wet weather ahead of it, uh but not quite as widespread. You've also got the cloud here popping up as it goes over the as as the air flow goes over the mountains, produces all this cloud.

[00:01:05]That's what you're seeing around the southeastern corner of Australia. And the heavy rain continues on in northern parts of uh Tasmania. Some wet weather has passed right across the island this morning. Um it's a bit more broken up, but you are getting wet weather carrying on through. And then the wintry change behind it, that is moving into southern parts of South Australia. So, we've got a few things going on. The other feature to talk about, easterly winds around Queensland on the coastal side, driving in plenty of cloud and a few showers.

[00:01:35]Here is the wind map going into the later part of today. So, you can see the low pressure zone moving eastwards. It's now south of Adelaide as we get to this afternoon. Uh ahead of it, you've got these warm northerly winds, tropical northerly winds coming down into New South Wales. So, many areas are warm today for this time of the year. And those northerly winds come right down into Victoria and Tasmania. But behind those thunderstorms, behind that rain band, you've got a clearance to northwesterly winds, and they'll gradually turn west to southwest, and even southerly for some of you. So, windy weather in the brighter shading here coming straight into uh the southern coastline of WA, and coming into South Australia as well. Uh but as you can see, you got northwesterlies and southwesterlies going around that low pressure zone, and high pressure just off the coast of uh Perth encouraging a light southerly breeze coming through for you. But that southerly goes right up to Broome. So, temperatures again might be noticeably down a wee bit in a number of places.

[00:02:34]And that is really the main headline over the next couple of days is this wintry change moving eastwards. Here we are on Friday going into the afternoon.

[00:02:42]The wintry southerly, the polar boundary here coming in over Kangaroo Island, brushing Port Lincoln. Your temperatures will be down there right across South Australia with that colder southerly coming through. Few thunderstorms in there, might be some hail showers as well. Uh the blue line means that 5 km above the Earth's surface uh the temperature averages about zero and below. So, that's why it is colder weather coming on through. Now, ahead of that, again, you've got the westerly winds here in New South Wales, but look at the line of showers and thunderstorms right back into the Northern Territory moving properly now into Queensland and crossing through New South Wales.

[00:03:20]It will break apart, reform, break apart again, reform. That's why not everyone will get heavy rain. Got the 7-day rainfall map again at the end of this to make sense of it. And if you're in the east, the higher elevation of the Great Dividing Range means most of that wet weather falls west of the higher elevation. So, further in towards the Outback. If you're on the eastern side here, on the coastline of New South Wales, and even up towards the ACT, uh some of that heavier rain might break up a lot more and not not affect you as much. So, again, that rainfall map at the end will make more sense of it. And more easterly is more cloud and showers carrying on through Queensland, whereas it's dry and sunny for much of WA.

[00:04:00]On Saturday, the high pressure moves in and replaces where the low is today. So, you got high pressure over the Great Australian Bight. Cold wintry weather across South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania, the ACT, and also a fair amount of New South Wales noticing that temperature change coming through. It may not happen for some areas until going into night time. The thunderstorms are falling apart. So, as they move eastwards, they are definitely breaking apart more, and so they won't be as widespread in New South Wales, perhaps a little more widespread in central and southern parts of Queensland. And the easterly winds, they ease back, uh but you're still got those cloudy periods and showers coming through the east, and a few showers up here in the tropical north. Pretty dry though for many other regions. There are a few showers in there, but but not a lot.

[00:04:46]So, as the high tracks eastwards, the cold bubble stays right here over Victoria, uh southern parts of New South Wales, the ACT pretty much, and Tassie will still feel it as well. Might The temperature might go up a degree getting to Sunday as high pressure builds in over you. The overnight temperatures may drop though, and there could be some frosty conditions um in a number of places where the skies clear up because the wind isn't very strong here.

[00:05:11]Heaviest rain is in the eastern side of Victoria now, and we're still seeing a line of thunderstorms just clipping the northern rivers, mostly in the southeast around Queensland, and stretching right back uh around the Great Dividing Range.

[00:05:23]There could be some heavy falls in there coming right in uh including Brisbane itself. And then you go west of that, and it is dry. Dry for the Northern Territory, dry for most of WA, but there is a colder change coming through ahead of another high pressure zone. So, temperatures do drop again again from Perth around to about Albany. You've got those showers and a few thunderstorms coming through as you go into Sunday with a temperature drop. That's not a major system though, but a few showers spread further inland going into Monday.

[00:05:51]Few isolated showers further northwards.

[00:05:53]Dry again for the Northern Territory.

[00:05:55]Mostly dry for South Australia. Coastal cloud, certainly here in the southeast is still likely and that could produce a few showers. Similar story over in Victoria where it's still cold and of course there'll be snow falling. Um and it might go down to lower levels than it's been over previous weeks. So keep up to date with the Bureau of Meteorology to get the snow information there. Showers around Canberra. You've got some wet weather chances going into Monday again and that southerly wind ahead of this incoming high pushes right up now into Queensland. So there is a temperature drop coming. Still a few scrappy remaining thunderstorms. Most of the thundery weather is out at sea in the Tasman over the top of Lord Howe Island where low pressure is starting to form. Norfolk Island looking a lot drier and milder at this stage.

[00:06:41]So by Tuesday the low gets larger out of the Tasman.

[00:06:45]That brings in that southerly now for Lord Howe Island. Temperatures will drop around Norfolk as well. That southerly wind goes all the way up to Queensland.

[00:06:53]So again, temperatures are down. You'll notice that both daytime and nighttime with those southerly winds coming through and the polar boundary comes up and over Tasmania. So again, snow flurries around the not necessarily higher elevation. It may go down lower.

[00:07:08]I can't give you an exact number this far out, but you know, it could go down to 500 m or so. Again, keep up to date with the Bureau or state you in more detail about that. You've got showers though coming in for southern parts, especially coastal parts here of Victoria and a little bit into the southeast corner of South Australia and southern parts of Western Australia. And Wednesday of next week, big picture map to sort of show you what's going on.

[00:07:32]So high pressure, another cold southerly. High pressure again, a cold southerly out in the Tasman where you got this low moving into New New So cooler winds remain around the southeast. It's still wintry for you on Wednesday. High pressure is pretty powerful here at 1040 hPa moving in towards the Tasmania area and that large size means it goes all the way down over the Southern Ocean and all the way up to the tropics and you've got the red line here just coming through Catherine, the top end, far north Queensland getting some warmer, more tropical weather coming in and those easterly winds mean a number of areas around coastal parts of WA be sunnier and a little warmer maybe than that southerly breeze is bringing you, but still a few coastal showers remaining along the south and maybe also around New South Wales on the coastline with that southeasterly wind. There is still a bit of a question mark about that low out at sea and what it'll look like by the middle of next week.

[00:08:27]Here is the rainfall map for the next 7 days. So, you can see these lines of thunderstorms that are moving in. It's moving southeast and at the same time it's moving eastwards. So, you've got lines of heavy rain. The areas in the blue around it only about, you know, 8-9 mm or lower than that. So, it is broken up and some of you on the coastline won't get much at all because the Great Dividing Range will block it. So, most of the wet weather you can see here is further to the south coming in with those southerly winds. Tasmania's got more rain coming through at the moment and that last line of thunderstorms that comes right down to Brisbane may also produce some heavier falls. So, a lot of that wet weather in the Northern Territory is happening at the moment and over the next 24 hours before that clears away.

[00:09:11]That's all from me. See you again tomorrow, Friday with the next Australia update.