P Chidambaram On Delimitation: 'Southern States Will Lose Parliamentary Seats' | Nara Lokesh

Añadido: 2026-05-23

[00:00:01]So, once again, the focus is on the debate over delimitation. And joining me here on India First is Congress MP P.

[00:00:08]Chidambaram to explain why he and the opposition feel that southern states would have lost out of the delimitation bill had been passed. Mr. Chidambaram, thank you for joining us here on India today. You saw what Mr. Nara Lokesh said in an interview recently on delimitation. And clearly, you've taken to social media to say sir that you believe his version is in the right perspective. So, let me again highlight for the benefit of our viewers what Mr. Nara Lokesh says. According to him, if Article 81 of the Constitution is followed, it is immediately a loss for southern states. And so, the constitutional amendment that was defeated has ensured that Article 81 remains. Your view first of all, sir, on what Mr. Nara Lokesh says.

[00:00:55]We all know Article 81 2A.

[00:01:00]That requires that every parliamentary constituency has a same number of voters as far as possible with any other constituency depending upon the population to the population of India which is uh simply one man one vote principle. One person, one vote principle.

[00:01:37]That's certainly correct.

[00:01:39]And when the founding fathers wrote the Constitution, it was absolutely correct.

[00:01:46]But they assumed that that the population of all the states of India will grow at a even pace.

[00:01:56]We introduced um family welfare and family planning uh project program to stabilize the population.

[00:02:09]The TFR, the total fertility rate of India at that time was an excess of 3%, maybe 3.5%.

[00:02:21]But the TFR has come down in the southern states and one or two other states on the west to 1.6 and 1.7.

[00:02:33]But in four Hindi-speaking states uh what we call loosely North Indian states the TFR is much higher.

[00:02:46]Uh Bihar Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and uh uh Bihar Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and uh one more state uh in the north, Rajasthan.

[00:03:04]The TFR is much higher.

[00:03:07]Therefore, the population did not grow evenly uh throughout India.

[00:03:14]Uh while the southern states have more or less stabilized their population, the population of the uh northern states four or five states is growing uh at more than the national average.

[00:03:30]Um in fact, they are growing at 2.1, 2.3, uh maybe even 2.5.

[00:03:38]Therefore, if you apply Article 81 2A today it will mean that the southern states will lose parliamentary seats.

[00:03:52]For example, the southern states have 120 or 121 parliamentary seats. They will collectively lose as many as um 16 to 20 seats.

[00:04:07]And these seats will be added to the uh Hindi-speaking states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh.

[00:04:18]We are not against the principle, but if you apply the principle today, um 70 uh 6 years after the constitution came into being, it will mean that the relative representation I underline the word relative proportionate representation of the southern states will sharply decline, and the four or five northern states will sharply increase.

[00:04:50]Whether you do that in the current 543 seats, or whether you do that in the increased strength of 815 is the same. The math is the same.

[00:05:06]Uh the Therefore, the proposal of the central government to increase the number of seats by 543 to 815 is an illusion.

[00:05:18]It's meaningless in mathematics.

[00:05:22]So then, Mr. Chidambaram, uh you know, what Mr. Nara Lokesh's argument is is that the constitutional amendment there was for exactly that, to ensure that the 2011 census was followed instead of a post-2026 census. Because you know, you look at it either way from what you've said as well, it's inevitable therefore that the South loses out irrespective, and it's only a question of which situation is worse. Many therefore would argue that a post-2026 census as per Article 81 is the actually the worst-case scenario for southern states.

[00:05:58]It's it If you apply the 2011 census, it'll be slightly better than applying the 2000 21 census did not take place. The census will take place in 2026 or 27.

[00:06:15]If you apply the 2026 or 27 census, it'll be worse for the southern states.

[00:06:22]If you apply the 2011 census, it'll be slightly better, but it the still the southern states will lose seats and the northern states will gain seats.

[00:06:37]For example, Tamil Nadu today, including Pondicherry, has 40 seats to the UP's 80 seats.

[00:06:49]Now, this balance is 1:2.

[00:06:53]But after you apply Article 81 2A, whether you apply the 2011 census or the 2026-27 census, the proportion will be disturbed against the southern states, against Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry, and in favor of UP.

[00:07:15]Take for example Andhra Pradesh. It has 25 seats as against UP's 80 seats. The proportion is 25:80.

[00:07:28]That is 5:16.

[00:07:31]That is 1: 3.2.

[00:07:35]But if you apply the Article 20 81 2A to whichever senses, uh it will worsen for uh the ratio will worsen for Andhra Pradesh, and it will improve for Uttar Pradesh.

[00:07:54]That's simple arithmetic, simple mathematics.

[00:07:58]Sure, sir. But, so essentially, you know, post-2026 census is the worst-case scenario. Uh 2011 census also isn't ideal. How then do we ensure adequate representation representation that's fair for the southern states?

[00:08:17]It's the 2011 census also showed that the total fertility rate of the southern states declined sharply, and the uh northern states declined uh slowly.

[00:08:33]Therefore, whether the 2011 census is applied or not, it will be bad it will be worse for the southern states in terms of a relative proportion, relative representation in the Lok Sabha.

[00:08:48]Therefore, the answer is to devise another formula which combines the one person, one vote principle, as well as the fact that the southern states have stabilized their population.

[00:09:05]So, see, when the founding fathers wrote the Constitution, they did not anticipate that the population of India will grow unevenly in different states.

[00:09:19]They assumed that uh the family planning and the family welfare programs will have a uniform impact throughout the country, and the TFR of all states will decline at at same pace.

[00:09:36]But, they were uh ambitious. They were actually aspirational. But that did not happen.

[00:09:45]We know after the 76 years of the constitution that the southern states TFR has declined more rapidly than the northern states. Therefore, whichever census you apply if article 81 2A is literally and strictly applied, it will be worse for the southern states.

[00:10:07]Therefore, the southern states have proposed revisiting article 81 2A.

[00:10:14]We are not against the one person, one vote principle, but moderating, modifying it to take note of the stabilization of population achieved in the southern states.

[00:10:30]But then, Mr. Chidambaram, you will have essentially a situation where every state then will put their hand up and object and say, you know, we're not happy with this kind of representation.

[00:10:40]I ask you again, uh what really is an ideal, fair delimitation then? Uh and whichever way I look at it, you know, southern states will pay the price. So, then do we look beyond population?

[00:10:56]No, no, no.

[00:10:57]Ideal delimitation will take into account the current proportion of the population and devise a formula. I mean, I can't give off-the-cuff answers.

[00:11:11]This has to be uh deliberated in a interstate council, and all the states would have to agree that the formula is better than simply, literally applying article 81 2A to to present population.

[00:11:32]Uh I mean, I can't give a formula that will satisfy all the states. It is only the collective uh deliberation of all the states that will yield a formula.

[00:11:47]It has to be compromise. We are not against a compromise. It has to be a compromise, but a compromise must meet the uh grievances of the southern states as well as the reality of the population of the northern states.

[00:12:05]I'm not sure and you know, the basis of what we're debating and discussing right now, Mr. Chidambaram, is of course the conversation that we saw between you and Mr. Nara Lokesh. So, I'm not sure if you saw what Mr. Nara Lokesh said in response uh to your detailed post on delimitation. Uh but this is a question constantly NDA BJP asks of the Congress that this constitutional freeze itself was something that was extended under the Congress government as a temporary measure and not a permanent solution.

[00:12:32]So, therefore, did the Congress also kind of avoid confronting the uh underlying Article 81 problem, left it there for decades, leave the crisis for future governments to deal with?

[00:12:46]That was done by Vajpayee government, Mr. Vajpayee's government. And I think that was a uh temporary solution. At least for 25 years, let's freeze the representation.

[00:13:00]That's one obvious solution.

[00:13:03]Freeze the uh current uh seats of each state in the Lok Sabha and freeze it for another 25 years. That is a simple solution, but I'm not sure uh that will be acceptable to everybody.

[00:13:19]But if you freeze the uh seats, it will be I mean, it will be acceptable to the southern states. At least we don't lose.

[00:13:32]And at least we don't in relative representation, we don't lose.

[00:13:39]But that will be the cause of an outcry in the northern states whose populations have grown at a faster pace. Therefore, I think there is a way to find a solution between freezing the current representation and applying strictly 81 2A.

[00:14:04]81 2A and the freezing the current representation are extreme poles. We'll have to find a solution in between, a compromise solution midway.

[00:14:18]My final question to you, Mr. Chidambaram, since you mentioned the TFR, which is the total fertility rate, and that's something that's been a bit of a concern in southern states. You had a couple of days ago the Andhra Chief Minister, Mr. Chandrababu Naidu, announcing a policy to incentivize families to have a third child, to have a fourth child. Is that the way to go?

[00:14:38]That in states, particularly in the south where the TFR is low, where the states have worked on it, now they're kind of focusing on bigger families.

[00:14:50]Allowing families to have more than two children is reversing the path that we have followed for the last 50, 60 years.

[00:15:04]We are the most populous country in the world. We have overtaken China.

[00:15:10]What is the point of adding to the population?

[00:15:14]The current TFR, all India TFR, is a little more than two.

[00:15:20]At the current TFR and given the age of the population, this population will stabilize according to statistics projected, this population will stabilize at about 160 crore by the year 2050 or 2055.

[00:15:44]It may take a few more for more few more years or few less years. I'm giving a ballpark figure. It will stabilize at 160 crore.

[00:15:57]Out of 160 crore, there is a huge infrastructure deficit.

[00:16:03]There is a growing problem of pollution, water scarcity, land scarcity, urban land scarcity.

[00:16:16]And what is the point of proposing something which will add to the population?

[00:16:22]I mean, I think with great respect to my friend Chandrababu Naidu, we used to call him Babu when the United Front government, he will I know him, he knows me.

[00:16:36]There's no purpose at all in adding to the population of each state. It'll worsen the problem. It'll worsen our current problems starting from budget allocation to climate change.

[00:16:54]The answer is not to increase the population but to stabilize the population all over India.

[00:17:02]The China adopted a three-like three-child policy.

[00:17:08]The China adopted a program of incentives to children to to families to have more than one child. It has failed, completely failed.

[00:17:21]In the last 3 years, the Chinese population has declined.

[00:17:25]Uh, but that is because they continued the one-child policy for too long. The one-child policy was wrong, and I'm afraid I say respectfully to Babu that the three-child, four-child policy is also wrong.

[00:17:44]The two-child policy is correct. The two-child policy will stabilize the population in the short to medium term, and I don't think we should reverse the two-child policy.

[00:17:59]Okay. I appreciate you taking the time out and joining us here on India today, Mr. Chidambaram. Always a pleasure to have you with us, sir. Thank you very much.