In modern warfare, military escalation without meaningful consequences leads to continued aggressive behavior, as demonstrated when a Russian drone attack on NATO territory (Romania) resulted only in condemnation without effective response, highlighting the importance of deterrence through tangible consequences.
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Deep Dive
It was a CONSEQUENTIAL NightAdded:
It's Friday, May 29th, 2026.
And it's a really important overnight overnight like the what happened last night could have been a turning point of the war. I don't think it will be, and I'll explain why that is, but it was a big big night. Okay, so let's look at this first. We'll start with overnight strikes and see what was going on. Uh there were 250 Ukrainian drones sent out from Ukraine into Russia. These are drones and jet powered drones according to drone bombers map. And you can see the the shot pattern where they're going here. So they hit the refinery in Vulgar, the Yurus Lavo refinery. This is the 10th attack on Vulgar on that refinery. And you can see lots of explosions, 15 million tons of oil annually produced uh there oil annually and produces gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel at this refinery. Uh the drone struck the fuel storage facilities there. Two tanks were burning at the time of this posting. Um and then it's it's certainly more than that. You can see this from NASA's map. Like lot of things hit at this this refinery. So um okay. So that was one thing. And then we see the RLS ST68 um the ammunition depot. like this is a a radar I believe the ST68 uh ammunition depot MTZ and M enemy combat posts have all been hit and you can see this here that's this uh RS or what is it RST uh ST68 uh being hit uh overnight strikes destroyed the ST68 radar. I'm going to show this to you uh so you can see what it looks like. Overnight strikes destroyed the ST68 radar near Fidosia and a Pancer S1 air defense system near Novo Federa in occupied Crimea. So that's the 68, right? You can see. Yeah. Okay. So again, they're blinding uh the Russians so that they can slip through with more strikes. Russian occupied town of Iliovasque experiencing hardship. This was yesterday. I don't know exactly what it was. Medium-range drone technology strike.
I again I don't know what they were going after, but I saw this yesterday.
Now, Russian strikes. And again, you think, wait, wait a minute. You skipped something. I haven't. I'll show you what I'm talking about in just a moment.
Russian strikes, 233 drones attacking Ukraine. So, 250 drones attacking Russia from Ukraine, 233. And they shot down 217 of those 233. Well, 232 and one missile and they shot down 93%.
Now, Russia is uh iterating just like Ukraine is and they put these uh interceptor or sorry, the the uh radar anti-raar devices. Russia's now bolting jammers onto its shahed drones to fend off Ukraine's cheap interceptors. So, those Sting interceptors, it's not working out so well, but they're trying.
They're trying to innovate and iterate.
uh a top Ukrainian official confirmed the fix and wouldn't call it impressive.
So, but but the Russians are learning.
They're not dumb. I mean, they they might be cruel and uh abusive and evil in the way that they're attacking Ukrainians, but they're not just stupid, which you you'd prefer that they were.
Okay. Europe. Wait, Europe? Why are we talking about Europe? Isn't that for the evening? Nope. Not. No. This is what's going on tonight. Russian shahad attack drone hit a NATO member state striking Romanian apartment building in the city of Galot. Now, normally when these drones go over the border, they land in a field somewhere. And we'll I'll show you one that did land in a field somewhere, but here uh yeah, it hit it hit in the city of Galati. Uh I've been to Galati. Uh it's about 15 miles from the Ukrainian border. It's right on the Danube and it actually hit an apartment building and there are people that are hurt. Now, this is NATO's first reaction after the strike. Quote, "Early this morning, an apartment building in Romania was struck by a drone as Russia attacked Ukrainian infrastructure near the border. We condemn Russia's recklessness and NATO will continue to strengthen our defenses against all threats, including drones." Okay. Well, I mean, as long as they're condemning Russia's recklessness. No, that's that's not it at all. Jane Keefe says, and there it is. NATO has condemned another Russian attack on NATO state civilians.
It's okay because it's Russia. Like, okay, unless you do something about this, it's going to continue to happen.
I said that after the first attack, first incursion, the second incursion, and I keep saying that, but nothing nothing actually changes. Romania has accused Russia of a serious and irresponsible escalation, but again, nothing's going to happen after this drone hit a high-rise building inside Romanian territory near the border of Ukraine. And Ursula Leandonder said that Russia has crossed another line after its drone reportedly struck a residential highrise in Ukraine. So, let's see. There's we're condemning Russia's recklessness and we are calling it a serious and irresponsible escalation and they crossed another line. But unless something hurts Russia for this, they will continue to do this. So Russian drone crashed into this apartment block and Galati uh Romania scrambled F-16s but never fired, citing a 4-minute window in and peace time limits. Uh, it was one of those one of more than 230 drones Russia sent at Ukraine overnight. A barrage that wounded five civilians there. Okay.
Citing a 4-minute window in peace time.
That that's not it. I mean, you could fly over Romania for 4 hours and they would just fly right with it and follow it until it crashes in in Ukraine again.
I that's not it at all. So, let's not deceive ourselves. Igor Sushko says, "Unlike Ukraine, Romania does not have electronic countermeasures." Well, I mean, pretty much nobody really had.
Okay. Ukraine developed them out of necessity against Russian drones. The Russian drone pilot was in control and this was indeed an attack, an act of war against a NATO member. Well, he's not wrong. I mean, this that is what it is.
Whether they whether it is witting or unwitting, we just don't know. But it was an attack regardless. Okay. Um, now Tataragami, uh, open- source intel, uh, says, "We we can, of course, discuss whether NATO is still a functional alliance, but invoking article 5 over a drone hit in Romania would likely fail to gain a response from many members and could effectively end the alliance since it would mean its single most important provision, failure." Okay, there's something to that. So, it's kind of like when Russia threatened to you you better get all your diplomats out of Kev because we're going to have these Syria strikes and the United States yawned and and uh the Europeans um said, "No, we're not leaving. We're not we're not going anywhere." So, the threat that was not carried out because the the threat was more powerful before it was actually threatened and then not carried out.
Same kind of issue here. If if NATO uh invokes Article 5 and nothing happens, that's that's that makes it much weaker.
Let's let's put it like that now. But something has to happen. If nothing happens as a consequence of this, you'll get more of that. And so you get what you tolerate. That's that's what this amounts to. Okay. Now, just a few days ago, it was only a few days ago when and Jane Key found this. Good on him. Uh it was only a few days ago when Putin sent out his propagandists to call for strikes on Romania to deal with those gypsies. Okay, so let's let's scroll this up. He's talking about uh Europeans and uh Poland. And uh then he says this about Romania. Um he says, "Well, because it's dangerous and it's clear that they'll move the bases. They'll move them to Romania and the logistics centers who will be in Romania. We'll deal with the gypsies."
That's Romanians. It'll be easier there.
The gypsies definitely won't go anywhere >> and that's it. Okay. So, I they're already they were talking about that sort of thing. I don't think that the strike was intentionally a consequence of that, but yeah. Okay. And Pescov was saying that the EU was already a party to the conflict. I mean, they've been saying this for a long time, right?
Soliv saying nuke nuke most of Europe, that sort of thing. Uh, the EU is a party to the conflict and cannot act as a mediator in negotiations with Keefe.
Currently, quote, currently Europe is a party to the conflict on Ukraine's side.
Do not forget that European weapons are being used directly against us and it is impossible to abstract ourselves from that. Therefore, in this status, Europe cannot claim to be a mediator. Okay, so there's that. And Shyu was saying the same kind of thing. He was saying show you explained why Russia is not advancing on the front line and according to him Russia is not only fighting in Ukraine but also 56 countries in total 56 countries are effectively fighting against us said when asked about Ukrainian German drone production saying you wouldn't single out Germany because it's all 56 they're all against us okay so there's that got to be careful with your rhetoric debris found near the impact point are consistent with Russian produced shot head 36/Guran 2 drones. So that's where we are right now. Now on top of that, layer on top of that that Russia was also attacking a ship. Uh Ukraine's Navy said that Russia deliberately struck a Turkishowned dry cargo ship ENT with a UAV as it sailed from an Odessa region port to Turkey.
How about that? So, no, I don't think that Russia is just lashing out all around it like Iran is doing to all of its neighbors. I I think uh I I don't know about the ship, but at least Romania, I I don't know that that was intentional, but whether it was intentional or not, there needs to be consequences. Okay, let's look at the battlefield. Battlefield update. Um here we have 960 Russians off the battlefield day overday. two tanks, 11 armored fighting vehicles, 28 artillery systems, 324 vehicles and fuel tanks, 750 UAVs. The 324 vehicles and fuel tanks is the only large number here, like relative to normal days. 960 is a lot lower than what it's been. Uh, but engagements are slightly above average. They're higher than normal. They just keep seeming to climb. Let's look at this. uh 25 attacks in Prosk Jul 22 attacks Ukrainian defenders repelled 12 assaults in Constantin and Leman direction there were nine attempts as of 0800 264 combat engagements or 67 combat engagements that that's that's a lot I mean that's that's still on the on the higher side uh and and yet there wasn't a lot of there was no ground shifting or anything. There was a lot of interaction but not a lot of actual like it. I think it's just that the drone cover is such that you can't really get very far.
Okay. Additional story. It's a Russian analyst Ryar. He's a fairly well-known analyst on the Russian side says that Ukraine is systematically disrupting Russian supply across southern occupied regions, not just Crimea. So, it's not just Crimea that they've been attacking.
like all all those four Oblasts, they're just they're they're having their way with it. Uh he says that Hornet drones are most active on the Mariaole Malipole route. Long range FPVs are hitting Indonesets and its ring road while Hornet and Boliva drones strike routes in occupied Luhansk. Rybar warns the impact goes far beyond fuel and goods shortages. So um there's that. the highway of death in southern Ukraine now extends all the way to Simropole. So, and I saw this and I thought, "Wow, that's interesting." See this hit in the distance. Uh, so this truck driver is like, "You know what? Let's get out of dodge. Let's let's not I'm not sure where this is, but I I don't blame. If I was this truck driver, I'd get out of that that road, too." Okay. Ukraine is strengthening its entire border with Bellarus with new engineering works along the frontier and develer fortifications behind it. Officials say the whole 1,085 kilometer line is already protected, but construction is expanding as Keef prepares for possible Russian escalation from the north. Okay.
I don't think that it's going to happen.
Uh there's not going to, I think, be a ground war between Bellarus and uh Ukraine, at least not anytime soon. And I I think Lucenko has every incentive to not let that happen. He does not want to be involved in this. Putin has every incentive to try to pull Lucenko in. And if Lucenko is dumb, he'll allow Putin to run drones over Bellarus or use Barus to launch drones, which could do that. But if he's smart, he'll keep that out of there. Okay. Ukrainian ground robots ran 343 missions a day in April in logistics evacuation mine laying and combat.
Ukraine received 1,028 robots through dotchain marketplace and plans 25,000 more in 2026. 343 missions per day.
That's that's amazing. So there should be a shout out to whoever was thinking about this because like Fedorov and whoever is thinking about how to mechanize these things in the ways that they have. They've just they're just they've just been incredible. My shout out goes to Mike Z, undergraduate student, YouTube member. Trump must pressure Putin. You can say it with me.
Trump must pressure Putin. And I'll leave you with this. I saw this uh image and I thought, wow, you know, there's something really interesting about this.
Today I'm going to be talking about this side in my next video. Kev in 3 days. So why is the Russian war machine so bad?
It's designed organizationally and this is this is my academic side coming out.
Uh it's designed to fail. It it it's not designed to do well. It's not designed to fail. It's designed to do certain things well and it's not designed to do other things well. And as a consequence, the Russian war machine is not likely to succeed relative to the Ukrainian war machine, if that makes sense. So that's my very next video. And the one after that is going to be answering the question that you all have been asking and asking and asking is when is this war in Ukraine going to end? And I'll try to answer that by showing you everything that I see and how I'm processing that. So those are the very next two videos. So I hope that uh that helps understand what's going on today. Thank you my friends for your time. Thank you for the likes, the shares, and the subscribes.
What do you think about what you saw today? I think I mean unless there is some kind of strong response about what just happened, you're going to see this again and again and again and again. All right, put that in the comments below. I try to read as many as I can. Thank you for the time, the likes, the shares, and the subscribes. And thank you for being the kind of person who cares about Ukraine.
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