How can Starmer’s cabinet look each other in the eye?

Added: 2026-05-19

[00:00:04]Hello, good morning and welcome. It's the official endorsement any Labor politician would kill for. In last night's bi-election campaign video released by Andy Bernham, his 4-minute pitch for Makerfield, but also to the country. He walks around central Manchester to the sound of Oasis's 1995 hit, Some Might Say. The Manchester Evening News confirmed last night that the Oasis brothers had given permission for the track to be used. My name is an Meloy from Politico >> and I'm Sam Coat of Sky News. There's a hit frankly from every Labour figure.

[00:00:40]Definitely maybe for West Streeting particularly after last week. We'll come on to some polling that suggests why it was definitely maybe not. Um cigarettes and alcohol for Angela Raina. She continued to lead into it. So pretty unashamed there. And will Kier stmer be humming standing on the shoulder of giants? Maybe after June the 18th, who knows? Uh, collectively perhaps the Labour Party could do with a spell of listening to the master plan. Oh, enough already. But before we roll with it, I had to do one last one. Delighted to be in great company. Turns out we've been nominated for best political podcast in the Society of Editors Awards and we're alongside the greats including our friends over at Electoral Dysfunction, the News Agents Rest is Politics and the New Statesman Daily Politics among others. Let the judges note no one starts as early as Sam and me. The awards launch turns out to be on bi-election day. Sam, did you clock that? June the 18th. That is gonna be really good for anyone doing an overnight program that day.

[00:01:45]>> Oh criy. Uh yeah, that's bad news. Um anyway, thank you for the nomination. Uh in case you missed it, the Oasis gags are a reference to the video that's now got just short of a million views on the X platform alone released by Andy Bernham. Well, presumably done by his campaign team yesterday evening.

[00:02:03]Interesting. I was watching Andy Bernham on on X yesterday. He replies to an awful lot of people who send him a message, journalists, just others. Uh he's he's very active on the platform.

[00:02:14]So it's not just his campaign team who use that. Um and I thought it was a good place to start this morning and um play you a little short extract. Um because one of the striking things about that video is that even though his path to Westminster is to fight a bi-election and then we'll see where we get to and you know we're expecting a challenge for for number 10 he is campaigning for the country from day one and that video is just littered with the ways of thatism and neoliberalism. Um, so I just thought we could listen to this bit an I wanted to know uh what you made of his sort of Manchesterism credo.

[00:02:53]>> I knew in my heart politics in this country had to change and that's what I came back here to do. Working side by side with business, we built the country's fastest growing economy.

[00:03:06]>> You're doing a fast job.

[00:03:07]>> No worries. No worries.

[00:03:09]>> Manchesterism is the end of neoliberalism. And there's a lot of Manchesterism in it. It's generally a very good uh production. It reminded me of of the school of communication of John Major's return to Brixton back in the day where you use that local background and you're a local lad and you you can tell your story to reflect what's going to be your national pitch.

[00:03:34]Very on the nose about that is in the north. Lots of local appeal. lots of message of change details TBD. To my mind, it was really a contrast drawing exercise along the lines of, hey, you could have me clearly an easy communicator, you know, who can post back to you on X about an in joke or a criticism and take it, you know, take it on in good spirit. Contrasting that with just alltogether stiffer style of Kestama, the prime minister in his communications. Interesting. I thought to see that the tour is already leaning into the odds on Andy Burnham. So Mel Stride, the shadow chancellor is out and about today talking about a Burnham penalty on borrowing costs in quite some detail. You know, he says that there are market fears of Andy Bernham's borrow more, spend more uh agenda, etc., and says that could be a penalty that the UK is already maxed out on high borrowing.

[00:04:34]Well, I mean, we don't really know in fairness exactly what Andy Bern will be proposing in terms of economic policy and and how he sees UK borrowing, but it's just interesting to see even the opposition, you seem to be well, as we said, kind of rolling with it on the the burner machine.

[00:04:51]>> And as much as I might not like it, a campaign that's based on vibes rather than, you know, hard facts seem seems to be the way to go these days. It's a vibesheavy video. Um when it comes to the facts actually interesting to watch Andy Bham doing quite a lot of sort of tidying up yesterday uh and that's putting politely I'm sure opposition figures would uh would use uh more um uh sort of abrasive language uh but on positions. So he's already over the last 36 hours tidied up his position on on Europe and makeley. is absolutely not going back to unpicking the fact that we're out of out of Europe, but also on the fiscal rules where he absolutely committed to Rachel Reeves fiscal rules to Bloomberg i.e. basically uh saying a prayer to the markets uh and and and sort of saying in perpetuity I will I I will um stand by those as as well and um hoping I think that he doesn't draw too much flack for that way of of doing things and emphasizing the oasis backdrop the elbow uh music in the background as he walks down other bits of Manchester and uh generally tries to uh rely on his personal appeal to get him uh through and of course the contrast with K star because you know if you look at today I have to say an I I sort of my stomach knots when I think about just how awkward and stiff it's going to be at 9:30 this morning when the cabinet meet.

[00:06:21]Um we are told that theme of this morning's cabinet min meeting is delivery and you kind of want to go oh god I mean that's virtually ironic. um after last week's revolt which bear in mind was only a week ago today which took clear premiership to the brink and you know looks set to basically install anti Bernham uh in parliament and maybe Downing Street. You know all of these figures have to look each other in the eye and I'm just not quite sure how they're going to do it. I think there's maybe one difference with last week and and it's this that when they were having those toe curlingly of appalling kind of meetings last week it did look like the cabinet was unsure outside a few very hyper loyalist redouts whether Kistama could ride out the few days without being forced out Samuel and now the message is very clear even uncompromising from the prime minister he's not budging There's not yet a contest. I mean, this is obviously he's not he's not saying this, but people are on his behalf and clearly with his authority and there won't be unless and until Andy Burnham wins in Bakerfield, which you know, for all the confidence of uh that video and the self-confidence that we've described at the top of the podcast is still, as we said, you yesterday the the odds are still very shaky on that. So I think we might end up with briefings set out of of this today saying the prime minister was chin jutting. He was determined to focus on that delivery line. Darren Jones's announcement of having very focused delivery units for each ministerial departments to focus on uh outcomes not just input. So it's all code isn't it for him sticking around or at least that is the number 10 version.

[00:08:06]But how are you reading the psychology, the human side of this?

[00:08:10]>> Well, I'm I'm just dying to say and that that is classic Mckelvoy glass half full ism, but I am wondering whether the liquid in the glass is hemlock. It's all I'm saying. Um >> I'm just being accused just accused of being a positive and upbeat person by my co-host for the record.

[00:08:30]>> Yeah, it's not what we do at this time.

[00:08:32]Um let let me tell you why. Right. I I'm tell the prime minister really does let per feel personally let down by figures like Ed Milliband. You know there was a sense last week that you know the energy sector was actively pestering the PM to go you know Edmond virtually they got helped get K Garmin into Downing Street certainly into parliament you know but there are figures like Shabban Mammud um who was as we said last week you know amongst the most pretty much the most two-footed person telling him uh that he had set out a a a timetable it's it's more than polite smiles and I I I think there's something verging on a constitutional problem here take Shabban Mammud She was absolutely clear last week she wants him to to work out how he's going to go. Um and therefore Shabban Mammud, one of the holders of the great offices of state, doesn't think the prime minister has the authority to continue in the medium to long term. So how on earth can she just sit around that table and rely on the very authority that she doesn't believe is there in order to do her job in order to get through the massively controversial for instance migration agenda and it seems to be very simple if a prime minister doesn't have confidence in a cabinet minister they go instantly done right but if a cabinet minister has openly you know said I don't have confidence in the PM well I know it's a sort of fairly unprecedented situation But, you know, how can this situation be allowed to sort of fester? Not least when there are all of these plans coming down the track to change migration that MPs don't want. MPs are sort of in the driving seat. You know, how does that work?

[00:10:08]>> It's really a frozen conflict, isn't it?

[00:10:11]And and you're right, there's a terrible awkwardness about all of this. But I still think if you are Shabbana Mammud or Ed Miban from different positions in cabinet, but you've basically been reliably reported to have doubts about whether Kia Starama can make it through to the next election and effectively that you think he should be setting a timetable or preparing in some way to depart. I think you just get on with living your best life and pushing through what you think is important. In some cases, perhaps also important for your own message or positioning. That probably, you know, works a bit to Ed Milliban's advantage. He's still in the kind of air and spare category of someone who could step up or indeed step up to a a higher position if there were a change at the top. If you're Shabbana Mammud, two-footed is your good phrase for Shabbana. But you know your things that you really believe in on this immigration and asylum reform. Well, you just don't budge. You say I'm I'm not changing my position either and you know that there's going to be another round of this you so either the prime minister gets tough and and saxs you but that feels very unlikely in this situation.

[00:11:23]So in some ways, something I've just observed in the the military sphere of frozen conflicts, often they serve quite a lot of the interests of people who might otherwise be involved in major clashes and potential defeats.

[00:11:37]>> That's true. You mentioned Ed Milliband as the uh spare to the air of the soft left. I just in a moment I'll come on to some polling, but I just checked it and Ed Milliband is the first choice of three% of Labor members. So he's pretty far down the list as it happens. I mean, you're right. We're in just really complicated terrain probably, you know, first half of 2019 Theresa May style kind of terrain if I'm being if I'm being honest. Uh if you remember, she had that devastating set of local elections where the Brexit party did very well and her authority was basically shot after that and she announced her departure just before the summer. Right. Like that's so it's not unprecedented constitutionally, but don't expect governing to get done.

[00:12:22]Don't expect difficult votes to to fly through the Commons. Yes, there is a bit of stuff coming out of the Treasury, but beyond that, not not a great deal. My my sense is, and I put this gently, they know they're not naive in Downing Street. They know it's close to all being done. You know, they're waiting for the G18 bi-election and and then we'll see where we are. And but until then it's there's a space for as one person put it for the PM to make arguments which is a bit little bit like not using the word legacy casting but but it it's sort of legacy shaping. Um, but you need to you do like the but the but what I'm sort of blowing apart but you know cabinet ministers are slightly fighting back is there is a a need to install a little bit of fake discipline first just to get through this next period which does feel like what a couple of cabinet ministers are trying to do today >> and ground wars of course kicking off elsewhere between rivals for the crown where streeting is going to make more interventions on the economy. It looks clear from briefings there that he's going to go further with an implicit critique of the cautious uh Rachel Reeves approach. Politico's Bethany Dawson uh has a good scoop that another PPS distributing uh has resigned. Steve Race uh he quit the exit MP and is out of the PPS WhatsApp group as of Monday uh evening. So that means all three um of the AIDS districting uh have now resigned and the new health secretary James Murray still deemed something of a surprising uh choice for that level of promotion he has to get a fresh flock of aids as well. So there are promotions uh involved in all of this though quite how long they don't come with zero hours contracts but but they look a bit like they can be uh somewhat temporary.

[00:14:10]>> Okay. So, how then do you put it all back in the box? Well, it began with a vet Cooper last night. Not totally untainted. She was one of the people that saw the PM last Monday, but she was lecturing and I and I think lecturing is the right word to issuing a stern warning uh to Labour MPs over the briefing wars saying, "Yes, it's all fine to have a serious debate." Uh but, and here's the quote, "When it's being reported, the things that lab that Labour people are saying about each other are unprintable." I would just say frankly I don't care who you are in our party what you think the answer for our future is we need to treat each other with uh respect. Uh so there's that. Um but today there's another cabinet minister a big one out and about sort of with their own variation of the same message. The politics of it is pretty stark. It's John Healey and he is going to deliver a sort of lecture himself to uh Labour MPs about how they're behaving saying right now the credibility of Labor in government uh is at stake but the meat of the speech is uh on his home turf of defense.

[00:15:15]>> Yes, this is the culmination of an attempt that's been away for months between John Healey and the mod and number 10. And essentially it's about linking up procurement that needs to happen and to to grow fast and the upcoming defense investment plan uh to to push more money uh into defense spending Sam with jobs and job creation in the UK. And the aim here today is just a very clear one that we haven't really heard in defense speeches quite so starkly before. is to send the message that defense is economically beneficial and in essence unlike a lot of other new industries. It is an area where you can send contracts to underserved parts of the UK and make the case that this is how you're it's part of the growth agenda. Bit of economic nationalism in there too. A back British pledge to boost skills, innovation and productivity. That will be a line that John Healey will use at the good growth foundation later and you know just quite a lot about bringing home this industry and how good it will be uh for the country uh in terms of prosperity as well as security. Just you know a couple of questions about that. The first is whether like modern procurement the technology of defense whether homegrown is always necessarily best. Right? If you look at something like Ajax, that very troubled armored fighting uh vehicle that was seen as a procurement blunder, but it was one which at the time was sold, you know, very heavily on having its final assembly largely in the UK, doesn't essentially, you know, mean that you get round the problems of procurement. And the other one is simply like if you've got all these multilateral, if you've got multilateral agreements on defense procurement now, your message is oh, it's all coming home. You how are they going to smooth that off? So, I'll be quite interested in how that goes down.

[00:17:09]>> So, I suppose in some ways to my ear it's the this isn't the defense investment plan speech. Um, interestingly over at MOD I hear it's getting closer. Over in the Treasury I hear it's not. So, this is the problem of a government without authority. It just doesn't, you know, get things done.

[00:17:28]Um, right. We've got a lot of numbers this morning. Uh, and we're going to sort of handbrake turn back to the subject of Andy Bernham because uh, that's what they all point to. It's a it's a incredible set of numbers really as good as I can imagine. Headline voting intention. Well, they actually went up one to 17. Reform on 25 down three. Tories up one on 18. You know, Labour up one on 17. Really quite something. um on Makerfield. Well, we asked the whole country who they wanted, all of Great Britain who they wanted to win the Makerfield uh bi-election, putting Andy Bernham's name in it. And you know, remember reform UK have a have a lead that I just described, but if you put Andy Burns Bernham's name in it and reference the the bi-election, Labour have an eight-point lead, 29-21. And if you just look at people in the north, it's a massive lead. It's a 16-point lead. So basically the north of England collectively want Andy Burnham to win the Makerfield bi-election and and for me although it's an imprecise question realistically that's that is a very positive sign for team Bham and uh for Labour ahead of that bi-election. Um only 28% of Labour members want K star to take them into the next election. So again, that's kind of what Andy Bham is making an argument into. And a Labour members poll put Andy Bernham as the undisputed winner. He gets 47% of the first choice of Labour member votes.

[00:18:52]Star on 31, Rainer on eight, Streing on four, Miliband, as we were saying earlier on three. So was Cooper Mimmude on one and Al Karns on zero.

[00:19:03]Deep breath. Um when you do some head-to-heads, uh Starmer loses to Burnham uh 5937.

[00:19:10]Uh but Stalmer interesting would um beat Streing even 6515 and uh Streing would lose to Burnham 8010. Um I suppose we end this podcast and with just a little thought for Wes Streeting. I mean, last week he was the nearly guy of British politics, but if it if the rubber had actually hit the road and he'd entered a contest, my goodness, if these poll figures are anything like right and you go have a good track record with Labour members, he didn't stand a chance.

[00:19:43]>> Yeah. The the only way is going to be up if that street campaign is to take off.

[00:19:48]But the lines are so drawn now so firmly aren't they on on Europe particularly but I think that's symbolic of much more uh between streeting and and Burnham and at the moment Bernham is Mr. popularity, >> right? We'll see you tomorrow for the first PMQs of the new session. See you there.

[00:20:05]>> More as we have it.