05W Threatening the Philippines - Tropical Update

Added: 2026-05-09

[00:00:02]All righty. Good morning to those in portions of um Palao, Yap, and even portions of the Philippines. Today, we're going to be discussing the system tropical depression05W, which could be named Hagapit fairly soon. Going to share the stream a little bit. And as always, if you have any questions, you can always uh leave them in the chat and I will gladly answer them towards the later part of the update.

[00:00:25]So, seems it's struggling to share on Facebook. That is yeah, it doesn't want to really work on Facebook. That is fine though. Okay, let's see who is in the chat. We have Typhoon Lover there. We have uh Richie in the chat.

[00:00:43]Okay, almost working on Facebook here.

[00:00:46]And yeah, I already see some questions.

[00:00:48]We'll get into it uh towards the later part of the update. All right. Well, let's just start with it now. And I see Kino Celestial also in the chat. Hello.

[00:00:58]All right, let's start off with this forecast. Okay, it's currently a tropical depression uh to the south of the Mariana Islands here. Just a lowend uh tropical depression. Over the next 24 hours though, as it meanders westward, it is expected to intensify into a tropical storm, maybe as early as the next 12 hours, but I am expecting it to intensify into a tropical storm by hour 24. After that, it is expected to gradually intensify into a higherend tropical storm, potentially a severe tropical storm, likely with winds of around 50 to 60 mph by the time it nears by around hour 60 or so. Then as we get into hour 72, it will likely maintain that intensity, but as we get into day four and day five, it is expected to weaken down to a low-end tropical storm and could be nearing the Philippines again by day five. Now, talking about the impacts that the system could bring, let's go over it. Now, there's not a lot of areas that are expected to see impacts, but over a million people are expected to see those impacts. So, again, while not a large area, a lot of people will be potentially seeing those impacts. Starting off with the marginal impacts, that's in this green color here. That does include the islands of um Palao, Yap, and portions of the eastern Philippines, portions of Mindanao, the Visayas regions, uh those regions. Now, what does that mean?

[00:02:18]marginal impacts. Well, expect minor tropical impacts with brief periods of gusty winds and some rain. A few branches may come down and minor street flooding is possible.

[00:02:29]Now, stepping it up to the slight impact category. That's going to be in this yellow color, and that does include the island of Yap. That's going to be mainly a mixture of rain and wind. They are expected to see um slight impacts in the form of flooding, but they could see some slight impacts in the form of wind as it could be nearing severe tropical uh storm status as it nears the island.

[00:02:50]Now, what does it mean by slight impacts? Well, noticeable storm conditions with gust capable in knocking down tree limbs and causing power outages. Localized flooding may affect low spots. And that's really all the impacts that we're expecting at least over the next 5 days. and um and at this range out as it's currently only a tropical depression. Now, I would not rule out the possibility it could intensify into a typhoon and we may need to start highlighting areas in the moderate impact category, but for right now, we'll have it as a slight category.

[00:03:20]And you can follow us on um on social media like Twitter and subscribe on YouTube to uh see those updated cones to see if we believe it will become a typhoon or not.

[00:03:31]Now, going over to the world of tropics.

[00:03:33]This is a new formats of the update here. The only problem is the satellite here is down so you can't really see much. But hopefully you can make out the outlines and where like the Philippines is right over here. Hopefully this will get back on otherwise we're going to have to use a different app for satellite. Now going over the world of tropics, we have some things going on.

[00:03:56]We have tropical depression05W of course which going to be nearing the Philippines over the next week. We also have invest 94W with a pretty much near 0% chance of tropical development. And in the southwest Indian Ocean, we have a disturbance here with a 60% chance of development. Uh fortunately, that will remain out to sea. We are currently code orange and that is going to be because of '05 uh W there. Uh not currently under a code for anything else. Now code orange means updates coming out every 4 days or so. So, we will likely have another update by the time it starts closing in on the Philippines. Uh likely within uh two additional days or so.

[00:04:37]Now, um I did want to mention since there's some people watching in the Philippines right now, of course, uh if you haven't already, uh I am potentially going to be chasing in the Philippines or uh somewhere in this region uh later this uh summer into the fall or um even portions of the winter. So, if you live in any of these areas and you would like to uh contribute to help some uh let me know more about the area, you can always reach out to me on uh the various social media platforms including Discord.

[00:05:05]Now, going over to the satellite imagery of our tropical depression here, we can see a little bit of a circulation that's uh developed to the west of where the blossoming of thunderstorms is located.

[00:05:16]Here you can see a low-level center circulation located right around here compared to the uh entire system indicating that it is kind of sheared and the center may be quite elongated in that there but it still is a tropical cyclone. Looking at infrared imagery here, we can see those burst of convection. Not nothing too extreme. Um, but we are getting some cloud tops into the minus 80 degrees Celsius range over here. That pinkish color and then that white and black color -70° C cloud tops mainly on the southeastern portion of the storm. Again, the circulation is located right around hereish if not more to the uh west.

[00:05:57]Now, going over the its current conditions, well, sea surface temperatures are quite warm at around 29 to 30° C. It's going to remain that way all the way up until it reaches the Philippines. So, very warm waters. And looking at the environmental conditions, shear is expected to remain in that low to almost moderate category, which should allow for it to blossom um especially over the next uh 24 to 48 hours. Sea surface temperatures, like we mentioned earlier, not a problem. The only real problem that the system is going to be facing is some more dry air as we go um into like the next 5 days or so. And we can try and take a look at that on a satellite imagery here. Just see um how dry it is. You see right off to the west of the system, very dry air over here that it's going to be having to push through. So, if it doesn't really get a core together, it is going to be um it is going to be quite susceptible uh to that dry air and it should uh hopefully weaken it.

[00:06:54]Um, now, whoops. Okay, there we go. Um, now looking at the distance from certain areas, this is a look at the latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast.

[00:07:03]Um, currently, and let's go to Is this going to be in miles? No, that's kilometers. Good. Okay. Um, looking roughly from where it is right now, it's roughly around 600 km away from the island of Guam, around 1,000 km away from Yap. Palao looks to be around 1,400 km. And then looking at the Philippines, they're up to 2400 km away. So you have plenty of time to watch the system. Um you have over like 5 days um until like the earliest kind of impacts could even begin. Um and then looking at other portions like Sabu City around 2600 km and Metro Manila nearly 3,000 km away.

[00:07:39]So the system is very far out, but it is something worth watching.

[00:07:44]Now let's take a look at the various models and what they're expecting the system to do. Starting off with my personal favorite here, the European AI model. I do believe it's the most accurate out of the bunch, and it does have it remaining a decent tropical cyclone over the next uh 3 days or so before it really starts opening up into just a tropical wave as it nears the Philippines within the next 7 days or so. Overall though, that wave could move uh through portions of Luzon, even portions of Metro Manila there as just an open tropical wave, which should provide uh some rainfall there.

[00:08:18]Now looking at the European the main European model run on what it wants the system to do really doesn't have it consolidating into much and just has it as a weak uh tropical depression or um just open wave by the time it nears the Philippines potentially even curving away. Looking at the GFS the American model run here does have it nearing typhoon intensity over the next 3 days before it just gradually weakens as it nears the Philippines. And these models aren't really that accurate compared to the uh European AI model. But here, the Canadian model does have it becoming a typhoon and stalls pretty close to the Philippines, does a loop and curves back towards the Philippines, and it also has another system developing behind that, which is likely our 94W. Again, I don't really think that that's going to happen. Now looking at the German model run and what it wants the system to do.

[00:09:07]It does want it nearing typhoon intensity likely around severe tropical storm status as it nears the island of Yap before really not not doing much as it nears the Philippines.

[00:09:20]And then looking at our uh we can look at the half's a model run and what it wants the system to do. Really doesn't become much organized at all by the time it nears here. Uh looks to be just a tropical storm. pretty low-end tropical storm at that. And then I mean there's some burst of convection occasionally.

[00:09:39]Let's take a look at a more zoomed out view of where it's expected to go here.

[00:09:43]Really just goes to the north of Yap and doesn't really get too close to the Philippines in that 5-day range. It's pretty similar to the uh forecast cone um here. And similarly to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast, which I'll pull up right now, it's over here.

[00:09:59]They are expecting the system to become a severe tropical storm within the next um I believe that's within the next 48 hours and will maintain that intensity as it nears the island of Yap potentially delivering slight impacts in the form of uh wind and then it is expected to weaken down to a lowend tropical storm by that 5-day range not really nearing the Philippines but that's similar to the halfay model run that I just showed.

[00:10:24]Now, let's go ahead and show the Google AI and Zombles and what they are expecting the system to do. Um, starting off over here, not a lot of them have this peeking out as a typhoon. I'd say roughly around 10 to uh 20% at most, maybe wanting wanting it to become a typhoon. Um, and that would most likely be within the next 3 days or so, as a lot of the ensembles do have gradual weakening occurring as it nears the Philippines. Uh it does look like it will remain a tropical storm by around the uh 5day range, but after that it's quite uncertain because a majority of the ensembles do not have it as a tropical cyclone. Um especially in like the um 10day range or so, but the general consensus does have that track moving towards the Philippines. Now, is it going to recurve? That's uncertain this far out. or is it going to go uh straight towards the central Philippines or is it going to go more in between those two tracks? It's a little bit far out to really determine that. But we can take a look at what the super enzymbles are expecting it to do here.

[00:11:31]Um here's a general look at the probability it will be within 150 km of your location. So general track consensus is quite high as it's going towards the island of um Yap there. uh with the majority of them have it going straight over but after that it's quite uncertain. Um could go more on a northern trajectory curving out to sea or could go more on the south there heading towards the Visayas region of the Philippines.

[00:12:00]And then do we have a look at the trends? I don't really think we do. Um yeah, but here's a look at the Google deep mine that I was showing earlier.

[00:12:10]they are pretty consistent on it going um going to the west there and going through the Visayas region of the uh of the Philippines there. Um but that would mostly be beyond the 7-day range.

[00:12:29][snorts] All right, now looking at the potential rainfall that the system could bring to uh various regions in the Western Pacific. See, that's not the color scale I want, is it?

[00:12:43]Okay. Well, it doesn't seem like it wants to give me uh my normal color scale. I'll try and fix that later. But um here over the next 7 days or so, how much rain did Okay, there we go. Up to around 200 millimeters of rain for the island of Yap. That's according to the European run. The European run, which does have it curving away from the Philippines, does have up to 250 millimeters of rain happening over the open waters. Now, if that shifts over to the west, then we could be talking up to around 250 millimeters of rain for parts of southern Luzon and even portions of Samar.

[00:13:17]Looking at the American model run, there we go. Those are the colors that I was looking for. American model run does have it more north. Does have up to 300 millimeters of rain happening over the open ocean. Uh the island of Yap could see up to around 50 to 100 millimeters of rain. And the Philippines doesn't get a whole lot, only up to 25 millime.

[00:13:36]German model run has a lot more rainfall happening up to 300 up to 500 mm of rain. But the island of Yap uh misses it there because it curves off to the north up to 60 millime of rain.

[00:13:49]What is the access model showing here?

[00:13:52]shows that the island of Yap could see up to 300 to 400 millimeters of rain over the next week, but doesn't really show much for the Philippines at all.

[00:14:00]Again, that's why they're only in that marginal category of impacts as of right now, because within the next 5 to 7 days, not really seeing a whole lot. But beyond that range, they could be seeing more significant impacts in that marginal to slight impact category. But it's just too uncertain to really be highlighting those areas.

[00:14:19]All right. as well. Looking at the individual tracks as well, I did want to look at the island of Yap here. The Google AI enzles do have it moving to the south of the island of Yap, which would be bringing the strongest winds of the entire storm to Yap. But of course, if it goes more in that northern trajectory, they'd be spared a little bit more, but still getting uh some strong winds. Um, but it is, like I said, quite interesting to see the Google AI enzymes going quite far south compared to the other models. Like we showed earlier, the uh whoops, the German model run, which kind of went like that.

[00:14:57]I think it's mainly due to the dip it's expected to take over the next uh 24 hours or so um to the southwest. And I mean, it looks like it's already doing that here. If you look at where the uh center of circulation is located, it's going pretty far south um of where the forecast cone is. So, it looks like it's right around hereish. Um we'll see if that those uh the convection the thunderstorms up here can try and tug it back to the uh northeast. Um otherwise, it's going to be trying to push this forecast more to the south. And I think that may ultimately win. I think it may go over or to the south of Yap, which would push this forecast further to the south as it nears portions of the Philippines. So again, those in the Philippines should keep an eye on the system.

[00:15:46]Now, let's go through and answer some questions. Nathan asks, could it be a typhoon? I really think that it there is the possibility like around a 10 to 20% chance or so. Uh, more likely than not though, I feel like a severe tropical storm or um just a mid-range tropical storm will be the most likely case scenario out of this. Um, but we'll see how how much it takes advantage of these uh very favorable environmental conditions.

[00:16:16]Let's see. Um, Gaming with Trip H says this will be the first year that uh had at least one storm in each month since 2014 and 2015. Wow. Um, Typhoon Lover asked, "Did 94W combust into pieces?"

[00:16:32]Well, pretty much. I mean, all of its convection has kind of waned. Um, okay.

[00:16:37]Well, it's not really wanting to load, but yeah, it's pretty much faded away.

[00:16:41]Um, cap got to it like nothing really firing. Um, so I don't really expect much out of this at all. I think our main focus should be on 05W.

[00:16:56]Um, Nathan asked, "Are you forecasting a 70 m hour peak or higher?" No, I'm currently forecasting around a 50 to 60 m hour peak, but that will likely be raised, I think, in the future if if it trends um if it trends higher.

[00:17:12]Um 05W moving to Manila like I showed before, it is the possibility that it could be nearing uh Manila there. Uh the Google AI enzymes pretty much have the consensus going towards uh towards Metro Manila if not further to the south. Although the enzmal mean takes a little bit more to the north.

[00:17:39]Oh, whoops. Sorry about Mila being in the description. Um, yeah, Gaming with Trip H mentions, I don't think it's going to be a typhoon because it's extremely dry in the Philippine Sea. Yep, like we showed earlier here. Very dry in the Philippines. So, I don't like that that may hinder its intensification.

[00:18:00]Now, if it tries to rapidly organize over the next 24 hours and gets a solid core going, then I I don't really think it's going to be too much of a concern.

[00:18:15]Um, let's see. Richie asked, "Southwest Indian Ocean system become a a tropical storm?" Um, I I think it that's the most likely, like more likely than not, I think it will become a tropical storm.

[00:18:27]It's now labeled 93s.

[00:18:30]See if we get some visible imagery on it.

[00:18:34]I mean, currently it's just a broad center of circulation, but overall models do want this system to develop into a tropical cyclone. Um, more likely than that North Indian Ocean signal here. Here's a look at the Oh, wait. Did it just downtrend?

[00:18:50]I think it just downtrended.

[00:18:53]Yeah, it did. But, um, yeah, but I do think more likely than not, it will develop into a brief tropical cyclone.

[00:19:03]Mammar says, "Hi." Hi, Mammds. Nice to see you again.

[00:19:08]Nathan says, "I live in that orange zone." Yeah. Well, uh, if you want to help, be sure to, uh, reach out to me.

[00:19:14]Um, if you live anywhere in this region or, uh, really any of the highlighted regions and you want to help me do potentially typhoon chases in the future, um, you can always reach out to me on a, uh, social media platform.

[00:19:30]See other questions.

[00:19:34]Next name on the international list is Hagapitz and Pagasa is Calloy. I see a celestial.

[00:19:43]Um, oh yeah, the gaming with Trip and H mentions that there is one member that shows category four or five out of its um Yeah, and I think even some out of the thousand uh a thousand member enzles are showing it becoming a super typhoon, but it's that's just like less than a percent chance of happening.

[00:20:16]Um, not ask. Uh, I'm in Sabu. Quite cooked for me. Well, in a Sabu. Really only expected to see um not not really anything within the next 5 days. You should be fine.

[00:20:30]Someone asked about the Belell region.

[00:20:32]Um, you know what? I'm going to gonna have to do this. Let me open up the uh uh Whoops.

[00:20:46]Sorry about that. Just It's been a little It's been a little while since they've uh been under the gun like uh under a threat. Let me just look at where the be region is again. There it is. Okay. Yeah. Um be hole region. could head towards it there over the next uh mainly 7 days like because within the next 5 days it's not really not really expected to be making landfall in the Philippines but within the next 6 to 7 days uh it could be could be nearing that area as it starts like curving more to the north so I think be region could see impacts uh TED ask I'm in northeast of Boho sure hope it doesn't get too strong and headway. Yeah, I mean dry air should prevent it from becoming anything like a like anything crazy uh when it impacts the Philippines.

[00:21:44]Someone asked uh from Mason City is about to make landfall. Nope. Got more than 5 days before it even nears the Philippines.

[00:21:55]Oh yeah. Um, Fat Bear mentions that invest 92 is about to make landfall.

[00:22:01]Yep, there it is. Our other wave here, which is moving towards the Philippines, could deliver some marginal to slight impacts in the form of flooding.

[00:22:17][snorts] What will happen to the uh Deva region?

[00:22:22]Oh boy, I don't really know where that is. Let me let me try and search that up real quick. Sorry about that.

[00:22:28]Uh Devo City. Okay, that's in Mindanao.

[00:22:31]All right. Whoops.

[00:22:34]Um sorry about that. Just trying to figure out where that is.

[00:22:43]Okay, that's in the southern portions.

[00:22:45]All right.

[00:22:47]Uh well, in terms of impacts, they could be not really seeing any impacts within the next 5 days, I'd say. So, just keep checking back for updates and I'll keep you updated on uh what kind of impacts could be happening there.

[00:23:04]Trivia uh from Jam Jam says, "Uh, did you know that the word hackit is a Filipino or uh tagalog word that means whipping, lashing, or severe strike?"

[00:23:14]Well, all right.

[00:23:16]Does it bring wind to Lee? Well, Lee, uh, let's see. Where is that again?

[00:23:23]Sorry about that. Just trying to There it is. Okay. Now, I do believe that it could bring uh some light wind to uh Lee, but that's going to be uh just beyond the 5day range. So, no impacts are really expected in Lee, like no marginal impacts or above within the next 5 days, but probably by tomorrow they will be uh highlighted in that category. Just keep following on social media on the other social media platforms to see what kind of impacts they could be seeing.

[00:23:55]Yeah, gaming with Trip and H Benson mentions that it could become resistance to those hostile conditions. Yeah, if it just tries to develop a core, I wouldn't be surprised.

[00:24:04]Um, but let's see the kind of timing it has.

[00:24:09]It really only has the next 24 to 48 hours before dry air really starts taking a toll on it.

[00:24:17]Another question. Uh, Richie asked, "Do you think '05W died out in the Philippine Sea?" Um, I think it could.

[00:24:34]Let me just see if there's any. Nope.

[00:24:36]Okay. Um, there there is the possibility weakens below uh below tropical cyclone status like we see on here. the Google and ensembles there do showing some of them dissipating there or at least weakening down to a tropical depression.

[00:24:51]So I do believe weakening will happen.

[00:24:54]Um this point is like almost barely a tropical storm.

[00:25:08]How's your day been? All right, I guess.

[00:25:12]Um, hanging in there. Like, uh, I'm on summer break, so happy about that.

[00:25:19]I'm working on some new projects like animations.

[00:25:23]Uh, my next Oh, yeah. If you haven't already seen it, I made a pretty crazy animation from a Patreon request. Um, you should check that out. That that storm is is definitely a lot stronger than than this one.

[00:25:40]Let's see. We just reached 6.37,000 subscribers. Thank you all so much for all the support.

[00:25:49]Um, and be sure to subscribe if you haven't already because I will be continuing to post updates on this tropical cyclone.

[00:26:00][snorts] Yeah, I'm really uh I'm kind of curious.

[00:26:06]What are your thoughts on uh on this new graphic style for the tropical weather outlooks?

[00:26:15]I know that the satellite sucks. Okay, I I know that I it's not working right now. Okay, I know. Um but I mean like everything else. This is on a new software trying new icons as well.

[00:26:29]trying to make it there and trying to make a new code system and how it like highlights everything a certain color.

[00:26:35]Explains what an area to watch is and explains what an area of interest is and then just goes over the categories pretty pretty simply and also explains what non-tropical cyclones are.

[00:26:50]Trying to make it more polished.

[00:27:00]Let's see.

[00:27:03]Um, like it. Nice. Thank you. Oops. Okay.

[00:27:10]Um, someone asked about the that system after uh05W.

[00:27:16]That would be uh 94W. And if we pull it up on here, just taking a look at the what the European AI model thinks it's going to do. You can see the wave like we have our three waves. This would be right about now. We got our 92W right there. We have our 05W and then we have our 94W right over here.

[00:27:40]We go forward another 24 hours. We see this is where our um 92W is moving through uh the Mindanao region of the Philippines. Then we have 05W intensifying. Then we still have our low pressure area of 94W. Still a low pressure. Um and then we go over to 48 hours from now. We have our 92W which has moved through the Philippines. We have our tropical cyclone05W likely hagapit at that point. And then our other 94W has now opened up into just a tropical wave. We go further and further out, we can track our two systems here.

[00:28:15]05W, which may open up to a wave. And then we have 94W, nearing the Mariana Islands as a wave.

[00:28:24]And then as we go further and further in time, it looks to potentially be nearing the Philippines. Uh this would be 10 days from now. This is 94W just as a tropical wave. So still something to be monitoring for heavy rainfall. And we may get another one after that.

[00:28:42]But nothing looking crazy at all for like heavy signals. Oh, and then I can see the North Indian Ocean having some shenanigans, but that's just so uncertain.

[00:28:58]Any updates on the Eastern Pacific?

[00:28:59]Nothing's happening in the Eastern Pacific. I've seen people try to point out something, but I I don't see it happening.

[00:29:10]There are tropical waves in the Atlantic right now. We got two of them. I don't know if they can really be detected on here. Well, there's one like right around here, but that was 48 hours ago.

[00:29:21]Can't really be seen that well on here.

[00:29:24]But I can show you all a pretty funny run from the GFS. Why? It's pretty crazy. This this run this 18Z run has been pretty crazy. We have a hurricane here in the Atlantic beyond the 10day range. Uh and then in the west or in the Indian Ocean, I mean we have a category five developing in the Bay of Bengal there. So um and that's within 10 days.

[00:29:48]So I mean I guess the the European run is showing none of that. just a weak low pressure area and none of the Google AI enzymes are really really picking up on it that well. That's why I haven't even marked it as an area to watch.

[00:30:06]I will probably be marking it with like a 10% in the next update um tomorrow as it's starting to creep in on that 7-day range.

[00:30:22][snorts] Yeah, Mocha 2023.

[00:30:34]Oh, also on this on this one, the half say model run, we can see 94W over to the east there. Not really doing a whole lot. Just stays an open wave by the Marin Islands.

[00:30:45]Yeah, over the next 5 days just really doesn't do much. Then our other wave over here moving through.

[00:30:52]We got total rainfall there.

[00:30:56]All right.

[00:31:11]Okay. Uh Oh yeah, and here we can take a look at the dry air that's going to be impacting the system. Look at that right there.

[00:31:34]Just sucking in all dry air. Really not going to be good for it.

[00:31:43]And I mean, you can see our other system there trying to burst up some convection. Um, but really doesn't get going.

[00:31:54]This does not look good.

[00:31:57]Like it's just going to be struggling quite a bit.

[00:32:02]Let's go to where we are right now kind of.

[00:32:08]And then just going forward a little bit here.

[00:32:14]And okay, I mean it's generally stacked almost with the low pressure area. The low pressure area is actually over here and the uh the mid-level circulation's kind of over here. They're almost stacked on top of one another. Um, but it is get it is feeling some effects of shear there.

[00:32:35]By the time it really gets I mean it doesn't really ever get vertically stacked that well here. You see even right here the low pressure is right there. The mid-level circulations off to the east. It's not really vertically stacked. If this was like if this was high up in the sky and this was the the grounds, uh the system's kind of looking like this in terms of its stackness.

[00:33:07]Yeah, just really a lot of dry air here.

[00:33:10]Um, I could take a sounding a general sounding and we can just see on.

[00:33:16][snorts] So, this red line denotes temperature and this green line denotes due point. The closer those are together, the the more moist the environment is. This is very far off.

[00:33:28]You see this gap here? very dry air impacting the system.

[00:33:33]Whereas, if we go to like right around nowish, we shouldn't see that being as much of a problem yet. Look at how saturated it is. The green and red line are so close to one another.

[00:33:47]That dry air, it's just going to be sucking into the circulation, really going to be hindering its intensification.

[00:33:55]All right. And last thing I'll try to do is going to be looking at the extremes. What areas are expected to get some extremes? I see it's already hot in the Philippines. Expected to get even worse for portions of Luzon, man.

[00:34:23]Yeah. Okay.

[00:34:26]Now let's look around the world right now. Anything being like record highs, record lows. Getting some record heat in portions of like uh Zambia.

[00:34:39]Um not really any record cold happening on land.

[00:34:49]Seeing some cold happening in portions of South America.

[00:34:53]Okay, nothing too crazy. And then wind.

[00:34:56]How is this looking here? I'll more so look at flooding.

[00:35:01]Ah, yeah. Portions of South Africa could be seeing some flooding concerns with this system. See how much rain is expected to fall up to 200 millimeters of rain.

[00:35:15]Let's go back to that though.

[00:35:18][snorts] any other areas, portions of um looks like Germany. How much rain is that? Not a whole lot.

[00:35:33]And then going forward in time, um some flooding in portions of southeastern uh the United States.

[00:35:45]Nothing really pops out too much.

[00:35:50]The Philippines does get hit with uh 92W. So, they do get some uh higher than normal rainfall. And then we have our other system, of course, right over here. This is going to be our '05W to watch out for. And then the system behind us there, that's going to be Whoops. That's going to be our 94W.

[00:36:16]Oh, Richie, thanks for pointing that out. There's another thing we need to be uh looking at here. I'm going to see if I can uh pull this up.

[00:36:30]Yeah. Okay, I think I can.

[00:36:37]Right. Just waiting on this to load.

[00:36:40]While we're at it, I'll pull up. Nope.

[00:36:43]Doesn't want to look. Okay.

[00:36:48]All right, let's pull up our uh climate prediction center.

[00:36:55]Whoops, that's not it. Uh, nope. Okay, not there. Um, there it is combined. So looking at week two, um drier conditions in the eastern Pacific, some possible tropical cyclones developing in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. But looking at the Philippines here, there is this area denoted by the Mariana Islands. And going into week three, look at this thing that's going to be headed towards the Philippines. Definitely want to be watching out for this.

[00:37:30]Really the only system we're going to be having to monitor is really in the Philippines.

[00:37:36]So, this will be quite interesting.

[00:37:42]Crazy how they just show the dry air up there or how dry it gets.

[00:37:49]All right.

[00:37:55]Okay.

[00:38:05]But I'm going to want to make a post on that on social media.

[00:38:11]Um, here I'll try to even pull it up on a another thing here.

[00:38:17][snorts] Um, here we go.

[00:38:31]Yeah. So, you see that right there? The tropical cyclone formation probability over 60% near the Philippines. I'm kind of curious why they're going that high.

[00:38:43]Um, okay, there we go. Based on the affforementioned potential of a construct constructively interfering MJO over the western Pacific later in May, there is good agreements in the ensembles featuring an enhancement of anomalous low-level westerlys and a decreasing sheer environment to the west of the international date line. Both model agreements and the strength of the anomalies is notable at this lead and outlook confidence is further heightened based on historical western Pacific MJO composits with feature high odds of formation above climatology above during uh April and June. Therefore, 60% chances for development have issued there uh with broader 40 to 20% chances uh extending westwards in the Philippines.

[00:39:26]Yep. All right.

[00:39:29]So, the MJO is going to be a factor there.

[00:39:40]All right. Well, that's uh any chance of rapid intensification of the system? I doubt it.

[00:39:46]it it has to rapidly organize first. Um, but by the time it does that, it's going to be interacting with dry air.

[00:39:56]Well, thank you all so much for watching. Now, in terms of the next update, since we are Code Orange, those updates will be coming out likely within the next uh or every 4 days or so. So, expect one, let's see, today is um Wednesday for you all. So, the next update would likely be on uh Sunday potentially, if not earlier.

[00:40:21]Um maybe not. If it becomes like a nothing burger, nothing happens, uh then then there there won't really be another update, but I will keep you updated on social media.

[00:40:32]Well, thank you all so so much for watching and I will see you all in the next update.