Southeast Braces For Potential Tropical Storm Bertha

[00:00:00]All right, let's get down to this. We're your hurricane HQ, everybody. We're going to start right here. We've got our tropical depression number two. That is Clear Water Beach, Florida. And that seems a little more reasonable with the feels like temperature. Last time it said it was 112. I think it's come down a little bit.

[00:00:13]>> It's uh 97 is a little bit more like it with that wind right off of the Gulf.

[00:00:17]>> Much better than 112.

[00:00:19]>> Yeah, I don't know if that was right or not. But uh listen, we've got the uh with the winds right out of the south at 20 miles per hour. So, it's it's a breezy day for the beach from Tampa all the way up around the Big Bend area, but you can see the heaviest rain is kind of backloaded around the south and also sliding in on the eastern side, which is typical for this time of season, this time of storm.

[00:00:37]>> Right. Exactly. I mean, we usually see a ton of moisture too in the atmosphere, but we got the tropical moisture that's kind of building on in. So, those tropical downpours, no matter what with this guy, it's been causing some problems for the Sunshine State and the Gulf Coast needs to be on high alert for this, too. That's well one of the things we're going to be concerned with is interior flash flooding is a possibility. But uh the thing we're going to watch for the immediate coastline, gusty winds, yeah, but rough surf conditions, a lot of vacationers down there.

[00:01:01]>> I know. And that's a bummer is even if it was a windy maybe um afternoon for you at the beach. Yeah.

[00:01:07]>> For the most part, you could probably deal with it. But if those currents are too strong, you can't be out in the water. Those rip currents are going to be an issue.

[00:01:13]>> Yep. And brand new this morning, we got the tropical storm watches. They're edging over to the west a little bit farther. So, not quite into New Orleans, but that may be the case later on today, this afternoon or tomorrow. They may get expanded out there. But look at the heavy rain pinwheeling in there. And when you have the daytime heating going on before that, a little convective in nature with the thunderstorms starting to bust up from Orlando down south.

[00:01:32]>> I know. And honestly, a bummer for the Sunshine State because they have just been getting hit by this over and over again the past well, what three or four days now since this now um tropical depression at this point is sitting there. It's been causing some problems even before it was well organized. So, I mean, it brings all these storm chances and now the panhandle's up next.

[00:01:52]>> Yeah, you can see right down into the center of circulation to this. So, you see some thunderstorms that are trying to ringing around in the outermost bands, but there's a lot of dry air getting in train off of the continental pole. It's a continental air mass, not polar, but continental air mass getting in there. That is dry air just getting trained and and thunderstorms, they don't want dry air there to grow.

[00:02:10]>> And we have a lot of that wind shear that's also playing in coming into play a little bit. So, it's also aiding in kind of trying to tear it apart. We're watching this very carefully, but it'll be interesting to see where this thing goes in the next couple days.

[00:02:21]>> And what better person to go down to than Jamie Rome. Let me get right here.

[00:02:24]Tropical depression 2 has formed in the Gulf of America. And we could see our first name storm, the bee. Usually, climatologically, you see the B-name storm around July 17th. So, we're kind of right around there. Florida's feeling the brunt of it right now. They got some very heavy rain, tropical in nature around the panhandle, kind of blossoming right out of the Big Bend area, sliding into lower parts of Georgia as well.

[00:02:44]National Hurricane Center deputy director Jamie Rome joins us right now.

[00:02:48]Jamie, thank you so much for being on Fox Weather. It's always a pleasure to talk to you. What do we got going on right now at 2 o'clock, sir?

[00:02:56]>> Yeah, I mean, we're continuing to see this uh slow, gradual organization. It looks a little bit better this afternoon, this morning, and uh certainly we anticipate this trend continuing. Um and so we could have uh a tropical storm at uh at any time later today or tonight. And as you alluded to, it would if it does become a tropical storm, it would be named Bertha.

[00:03:19]>> And I I'm curious here too here um because we were kind of talking a bit about the wind shear that it does have to battle up. when it starts to move towards that area, more so towards the north, do you think it's going to be able to survive that kind of hostile environment? What are you guys looking at right now?

[00:03:34]>> Well, what I think really is going to happen and is very typical of these systems like this in the in the northern Gulf. It's going to try to strengthen.

[00:03:42]So, we'll probably see a little bit of a blow up of the deep showers and thunderstorms later today and tonight.

[00:03:47]But as it does and the circulation tightens up, it's going to pull this drier air off of the continental United Continental United States and sort of almost be self-limiting, if that makes sense. It's going to try to strengthen and in so doing pull this drier air. You can kind of already see it right in here. Uh so, it probably will have a little bit of a ramp up. Uh certainly taking it to a moderate tropical storm.

[00:04:11]Um, but then that dry air is probably going to limit further development.

[00:04:14]>> Uh, Jamie, what are your thoughts on the beach impacts right now? We know we've got the the rip currents. They're going to be a big impact. How long do you think that's going to last?

[00:04:23]>> I mean, this time of year, rip currents are a problem through throughout the entire Gulf Coast here. But you put this sort of broad circulation. Yeah, rip currents are going to be a big big deal.

[00:04:35]And we've got a big section here along the um the Florida GF coast and then up here along the Fort Pano. There are a high risk of rip current. So not a great day to be going to the beach um even beyond the the rain and and cloud cover.

[00:04:50]Um so that's a big concern. But another concern is there's some areas here over in southeast Louisiana uh to get just enough storm surge to be a problem. Some of these areas are really lowlying coastal areas. is it doesn't take a ton of of storm surge. We're predicting the potential of 2 to four feet, which doesn't sound like a lot, but in these communities, uh it can be very very impactful.

[00:05:14]>> And I I'm curious too here, Jamie, because I mean, obviously the Gulf, it's incredibly warm right now, and I mean, this storm does have a chance to strengthen quite a bit, and I mean, it's going to be utilizing that as fuel. Once this storm passes though, do you think it'll have an impact on kind of upwelling and bringing in some of that cooler temperatures from a little bit deeper in the water or do you think that's not going to be really a problem since the waters are so, you know, warm?

[00:05:38]>> It's I mean it's a really good question.

[00:05:39]A lot of people uh like to know sort of the upside potential. We don't I mean we're we don't think there's a you know going to make a hurricane out of this.

[00:05:47]The dry air alone probably is enough to to limit it. And then if you look at our our cone forecast, it kind of skirts along this these shallow shelf waters that you were talking about. So that's certainly going to make, you know, upwelling and cooling to be problematic.

[00:06:02]So yeah, it's got a lot of things going against it that are going to prevent significant development. It's just it over the next day or so, it probably will make a run at tropical storm strength, uh, you know, 40, 50 miles per hour and create a little bit of, uh, problems here along the northern Gulf Coast. Yeah, that was my next question, Jamie, with the timing. I guess storm surge is what I want to know about the timing first. When do you think that two to four? I think that's a top end, right? Two to four. When do you think that's going to race up there towards Louisiana and uh Mississippi?

[00:06:32]>> Yeah, it's going to be the high tide late Tuesday and then the next one on on Wednesday. Um this area here from basically the mouth of the Mississippi uh over to uh Mobile Bay, at least the coastal portion of Mobile Bay has the potential for two to four feet. But I think of those areas, this east bank area here and uh like Plaeman's Parish, uh some of the areas that are are really vulnerable and could, you know, sort of uh feel the full impact at >> two to four.

[00:06:59]>> And when we're t kind of talking, um obviously storm surge is going to be one of the main concerns with this. Um especially in that Louisiana area, but I mean I think a lot of folks when they think of a tropical system, they're thinking rain. I know that but kind of looking into those models, the rain kind of wants to trend a little bit out into the coast. Yeah. Is is that still kind of the trend or are we kind of looking at more of those tropical downpours still being a problem too?

[00:07:21]>> This is actually a really good question.

[00:07:23]Typically, when you have a slowm moving storm uh in the northern Gulf, um what pops off the map is rain, heavy rain and flooding. What's different and unique about this one is all of that northerly shear that we've talked about that's going to prevent development is also going to shunt the heaviest of the rainfall just offshore. So, you know, I don't have the map on here, but if you looked at the rain potential, it's all over the the open waters of the Gulf, maybe clipping extreme southeast Louisiana with some of that heavy rain.

[00:07:53]Um, but that is what is limiting the heavy rain and flooding potential from the traditional rainfall threat.

[00:08:00]>> Now, I I read the last discussion you were thinking about maybe running itself at its course right through lower Louisiana. Let's say it gets a little farther down the south. Do you think Texas has to worry about this towards the end of the week?

[00:08:11]>> Yeah, great question. And that was a a big concern yesterday um you know when it looked like it could maybe just stay offshore just a little bit. But now with the track more so along the the Gulf Coast, more land interaction and more that dry air sort of infusing the circulation, uh we really think it's going to weaken sort of after it passes over um Louisiana. So we're looking at more of a weakening system uh if it makes it into Texas. So, more of a tropical depression or very weak tropical storm. Um, it remains to be seen whether some of that residual moisture might work its way into Texas.

[00:08:47]Um, but right now that's not sort of jumping off the map is the biggest hazard. We're really sort of focusing more in here uh for our concern with the with the wind and the storm surge.

[00:08:57]>> Right. I'm looking right now as at the National Hurricane Center.gov, the nc.gov. Did you guys put out the 2pm advisory? I I didn't see it yet.

[00:09:06]Yeah, it should be in the process of updating um as we speak.

[00:09:09]>> Okay, excellent. Very good. No change, I'm being told right now. Uh Jamie, thank you so much for the time. It's always great to talk to you. Get the the the word right from the expert source right there. Jamie, thanks so much for being here.

[00:09:20]>> Yeah, thanks for having us.

[00:09:21]>> Absolutely. We'll have you again hopefully. Yeah. National Hurricane Center deputy director Jamie Rome out there. Good stuff.