The Market Just Changed The Rules For Big TechTSLA, GOOG, NBIS

[00:00:00]Welcome back everybody. Today, two of the biggest companies on Earth just reported earnings after the bell. Both of them beat, and both stocks dropped anyway.

[00:00:10]Google and Tesla just kicked off Magnificent Seven earning season, and the way the market reacted tells you quite a bit here.

[00:00:17]Now, let's start off with Google. On paper, this was a monster. Revenue came in at 119.8 billion, up 24% from a year ago.

[00:00:30]And the number everyone actually watches, which is Google Cloud, grew 82%.

[00:00:35]I'm going to say that again. It grew 82%.

[00:00:39]That's a massive acceleration from the low 60s that we had just last quarter.

[00:00:45]So, this is the AI trade actually working here. The spending is finally showing up as real cloud revenue, and that's what Wall Street really wants to see. Now, Google walked in, dropped the proof on the table, and the stock fell after hours anyway.

[00:01:00]Why is that? It's because they told everybody they're going to keep spending. CapEx guidance is going to keep going up up to about 175 billion dollars for the year. We're going to see how this opens up tomorrow morning, but for now, it's a little bit in the red.

[00:01:16]Now, let's go over to Tesla here. Tesla delivered a record 480,000 cars this quarter.

[00:01:23]Best second quarter they've ever had, and their first year-over-year delivery growth in 2 years.

[00:01:30]Revenue beat 228.2 billion, up 26%. Now, that sounds great, right? But, here's the important part.

[00:01:39]They sold a record number of cars, and they barely made money doing it.

[00:01:45]You had operating margin collapsing to 1.4%, and that is down from over 4% a year ago.

[00:01:52]Free cash flow went negative. CapEx exploded 142% higher. So, they moved more metal than ever by cutting prices to the bone here, but they're pouring all that money into robotics, robotaxis, and AI build-outs that really haven't paid out yet. And what we saw in the after-hours is the market looking at Google and Tesla and saying, "Hey, same thing. Show us what it costs."

[00:02:16]Here's the layer sitting on top of all of it. While earnings were flying, Trump reopened the trade war again. 50% tariffs on a whole range of Canadian goods and a plan to eventually hit generic uh drugs with tariffs up to 200%.

[00:02:31]None of it is going to land tomorrow, but it does exactly what tariff headlines always do. Now, the real question is, what are the charts actually saying about where this money's going next because the reaction here is the trade, not the earnings.

[00:02:47]A quick reminder, this is not financial advice, so do your own research.

[00:02:51]All right, everybody. Let's start off with the SPY here.

[00:02:56]We're still holding a pretty healthy trend to the upside, still above that 21 EMA, and in the overnight session, a little bit higher. We saw a bit of a fade. So far, no reason to be concerned as long as we're holding this trend line here. Now, let's talk about the triple Qs. Triple Qs are a bit top heavy here, as you can see, but in the after-hours, we are stick still ticking upwards. The reason I have this shaded box is because this is a possible range that I think we could be stuck in for maybe the next couple trading days or the next like 2 weeks until it decides to either break out to the upside or to break to the downside.

[00:03:35]The overhead resistance point here is about a $711.

[00:03:40]Uh dollars. That's your point of control on the triple Qs. You get through that, and I think we see a really nice move to the upside.

[00:03:48]So, be patient here. RSP starting to roll over just a little bit, but nothing like, you know, earth-shattering.

[00:03:56]Holding the 21, no problem.

[00:03:59]SMH, as I've been saying here, it's been holding this lower trend line, and we got above the 50. The question is, can we hold that 50?

[00:04:08]Can we get above the 21 and get that nice push to the upside?

[00:04:12]That's what you want to see after a big move like this, an extended consolidation. You want to see a move to the upside.

[00:04:18]If you zoom in a little bit more, you just want to make sure here you understand that we are in the SMH still kind of like in a channel to the downside. So, you got to watch out for that. Can we break out, or are we going to get another push to the downside? All right, let's talk about gold here for a second. Gold is starting to look like it's putting double bottom. Looking really solid here in my opinion. If we flip over to the GLD ETF, yeah, we got a bit of overhead resistance here, but if this breaks, I think we get a nice push up to four, maybe 420. Of course, with gold, there are many factors at play, not just the charts, but I'm seeing it here from a charts perspective. 366 is looking like the floor here for the short term, in my opinion. Can it chop around before breaking out? Yeah, it could do that. It's possible.

[00:05:07]But, I think gold might be ready for a push. So, just watch out what happens here if we come down and fill that gap, or if we start moving. Likewise with silver, and silver actually today had a I think at one point had a bigger pop than gold, 3% or so.

[00:05:22]I'm going to keep my eye on silver.

[00:05:25]Now, we do have Amazon earnings July 30th. This is coming up. I'm still holding this position, and it's has that nice rounding bottom here.

[00:05:35]It just needs to get back above here.

[00:05:36]It's trending a bit sideways. I think it's waiting on earnings, and might get a little bit of a push into earnings. That's what means what we've been seeing recently with a lot of stocks. You get that push up before earnings and then it sells off.

[00:05:50]So, um Tesla on the other hand, let's talk about this one here. Structurally, we have come down to the next support level at 361.

[00:06:01]Is this worth a shot here? Possibly, if you see buyers stepping in on the open tomorrow, maybe this is a bit oversold here, but it could go lower.

[00:06:11]Now, if we drop the anchored volume profile here, we can try and figure out where most of the trading volume happened. And you'll see that we are at about 361, okay?

[00:06:24]Down here in the overnight. And then you got this volume shelf here at about 354.

[00:06:30]So, I would say that, yeah, maybe we could get a little bit more of a pullback down here.

[00:06:36]We'll see tomorrow what happens. This might be actually uh the floor here because you have some support. Now, if 354 breaks, then you got some serious trouble. Tesla would begin rolling over much harder.

[00:06:49]Now, you also got to keep in mind you got this trend line up here. So, we need a nice uh breakout through this whole area, even through 421 to get this moving to the upside. But for the time being, Tesla is in a downtrend. So, if you are trading this, in and out pretty quick. That's just my opinion, do your own research, not financial advice.

[00:07:13]Google, I think this one will probably just pop tomorrow. This is just a silly reaction here. Put down a trend line here. We are dipping below it. Watch and see tomorrow. This is what I'm going to do. If we get a nice push to the upside and we get back above that trend line, that will tell me that buyers are sitting down here. If it starts chopping around here and doing weird stuff, I'm just going to stay away from it, right?

[00:07:37]That's just how I'd play Google.

[00:07:40]All right, next up is Nabors, NBIS, which I brought up the other day that we had a trade going on in Discord. And if you're looking for a Discord community, a swing trading community, somewhere you could where you can connect with other people, discuss your trading ideas, or even learn a bit more about trading, check out the link down below. So, let's talk about this trade. I got in somewhere around here in the middle of this candle as it was pushing higher. It looked like we had a very decent floor here. We found some kind of support bouncing and then we started pushing into that point of control, which is when I started scaling out uh out of this position. So, right now I'm holding just about I think about a quarter of the original position size.

[00:08:25]And hey, this could run a bit more, but I caught a nice roughly 10% uh trade on this in just two trading sessions. So, that's pretty decent for me on a swing trade. Next is DRAM, and I think that memory is going to have a comeback here.

[00:08:42]Here are my targets on DRAM. These are of course extended targets up here.

[00:08:47]I'm trying to find a play here where we see some continuation off the 50. Now, here it's a little bit lower than the 50, but when we switch over to Micron, which I think is one of the heaviest weights in in uh the DRAM ETF, you'll see that it looks even better.

[00:09:06]So, I'm targeting a move up thinking up here to about 65 is like a conservative target. And of course, got to respect our stop here at floor at about $52.

[00:09:18]You know, there's always going to be risk for a gap downs and volatility in this market. Things have been crazy, so you know, manage your risk accordingly.

[00:09:28]RAM, R A M, this is the 2x ETF, also another option if you want to try out something with a bit more leverage, but I tend to stay away from leverage, especially when things are so crazy the way they are these days. Next we got Reddit and we've been in this channel doing pretty well for a while and we caught this, I believe it was this trade that we caught. It was this push that we caught uh maybe like a couple of weeks back and this was a really decent push.

[00:09:56]Now we got really uh dense volume here. A lot of trading going on here at about 152 and this is where I think where our absolute floor would probably be. We do have earnings, of course, the 30th of July and I want to be out before earnings.

[00:10:14]So hopefully we get a nice push. I bought some today off of this drop. Uh there was like some kind of news and look at that upside. 20% upside if we can get back up top. I'm not saying we're going to go up there, but I picked up RDTL, which is the 2X and if I can even just capture half that move, we're talking 15 plus percent uh gain on a quick trade. Palantir today facing a bit of uh pressure to the downside. It dropped 6% in a day. I think this was related something to something Claude put out, but I'm not really sure if this reaction is, you know, makes any sense.

[00:10:53]We haven't broken the floor here at 125, so I'm still holding it into tomorrow and then I'm going to have to decide on this one. Been holding it for a while and it's not doing much. Might as well cut it uh because I don't want to you know, have the options bleed out on the K.

[00:11:09]SpaceX continuing down here. Man, this is ugly. Like I said, stay the heck away from SpaceX. Let us do its thing. Let it find its floor and hey, I put out a video on SpaceX and Tesla a couple two days ago.

[00:11:24]ASTS still holding a little bit here, but I'm about to close this one out, I think, if this doesn't move.

[00:11:30]Think we are losing steam here.

[00:11:33]Uh think this move might be over and we might just push back to the downside.

[00:11:38]And uh let's not forget about Intel.

[00:11:40]This one has earnings on the 23rd, which is tomorrow. Going to be after the close, so watch out for that. Our overhead resistance here is about 108.

[00:11:50]This is where the point of control is.

[00:11:53]And we have found here 1 2 3 points of contact on this trend line and it's trying to find a bottom. So, if it can break through this area right here, look at we got the EMAs curling down. We got the point of control here. If it can push here, then we could see maybe I think 160. That was my original target.

[00:12:13]Of course, it all rests on earnings and whether Intel can impress Wall Street.

[00:12:19]And another one I'm watching is Western Digital. I think this one is getting ready for a nice pop here.

[00:12:26]But, I wanted to wait out the Google earnings and the Tesla earnings. So far, it's still pushing up. I think if you zoom out here, you'll see how this has been playing out. We had a very nice move to the upside. We had the pullback, very extended consolidation. We should get our next push up. So, I'm targeting roughly No position in this yet, but it's high up there on the watch list.

[00:12:53]Don't forget crypto. I have a position in SOLT, Solana. Bitcoin still holding strong in my opinion. Once this breaks 67K, I'm going to start adding into my crypto position. So far, only SOLT.

[00:13:07]Coinbase has earnings coming up, but I think this might get a nice pop after earnings or especially if Bitcoin continues going up.

[00:13:16]Clarity Act drafts, I believe, coming through and uh lots of uh catalysts coming up, so crypto is going to I think it'll pop.

[00:13:25]It'll take people by surprise sometime, you know, uh in in in the second half of this year we're in right now. All right, everybody, I hope you found this quick update helpful. Do me a favor, help this channel grow. Hit that like and subscribe button so you don't miss out on any updates.

[00:13:42]I'll do my best to keep you updated later this week. Take care, everybody, and I hope you have an awesome rest of your week. Peace.